The Kuwait Thread (merged)

[Tanada]

I think there has been some misinterpretation here. The Burgan field has been partially "mothballed" the last few years to increase the tremendous amoun of pressure the field has. 2004 production was 1.35 mb/d.

The KOC was aiming for an increase to 2 mb/d production within 5+ years due to technology and stuff. This production could then be held for a longer time. But now it appears as if they were too optimistic and only 1.7 mb/d can be attained.

So this Burgan is declining stuff is nonsense i think. Yes the oil is starting to deplete. Yes the oil field will probably stop producing 20 to 30 years from now. But it's not like that is tomorrow.

If Burgan peaked already and has been running 60 years I would think 20 more years of production or more is economically possible, but with ever more declines every year from now till the end of economic production. What was Burgan production in 2000, 2001? If it can only produce 1.35 today and it produced more in 2000-2001 it sure looks like decline and it sure sounds like decline. Saying they are 'resting' the field at a time when world oil prices are at an all time high? That does not sound reasonable unless something happenned damaging the field in the last 5 years and they were evaluating and compensating.

[M_B_S]

This is the most important story ever since homo sapiens uses oil to feed his children .....

Look at the headlines in mainstream media : NOTHING untill know

but PEAK OILER scream it to the whole world


WIKIPEDIA ! is online BURGAN


Good work

German sister forum is also online

M_B_S

[lowem]

Dug up this link while looking for references for my blog :
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cantarell.htm

Says there that Cantarell, Mexico is the second largest oil-field. Of Ghawar I'd suppose we have no doubt, but is Mexico's Cantarell second-largest or Kuwait's Burgan? Hmm. Or was that second by daily production figures instead of reserve size?

[Taskforce_Unity]

If Burgan peaked already and has been running 60 years I would think 20 more years of production or more is economically possible, but with ever more declines every year from now till the end of economic production. What was Burgan production in 2000, 2001? If it can only produce 1.35 today and it produced more in 2000-2001 it sure looks like decline and it sure sounds like decline. Saying they are 'resting' the field at a time when world oil prices are at an all time high? That does not sound reasonable unless something happenned damaging the field in the last 5 years and they were evaluating and compensating.

Could be, im not an expert, let me quote from this article:

Future relations between kuwait petroleum corporation and the international oil companies: succes or failure?

“Until recently Kuwait has been able to produce at maximum levels without harming the life span of its field. The technical and economic situation has changed. Now Kuwait’s fields, especially the northern ones, have matured to the point where the internal pressure of the field is not enough for the oil to be easily recovered. Thus in order for Kuwait to produce at the most efficient and competitive rate, they need the technological expertise of the International oil companies. The current problem lies in the discord between the technological and economic drivers that are pushing for IOC involvement and the political movement against it.

From a strategic point of view, Kuwait needs to increase production from the younger northern oil fields so that Burgan, the oldest field in production since 1938, can regain its underground pressure by producing at a lower rate. … The enhanced oil recovery technology needed in the northern fields is not needed in the Burgan field, as its tremendous underground pressure makes oil recovery relatively simple. According to a phone interview with Nawaf Al Sabah, Manager of KPC USA, involving the IOC’s to help increase production of the northern oil fields will give the Burgan fields “a rest to rebuild their pressure”.

Appears to me as if old Burgan still has some production in the pipeline if well managed

Says there that Cantarell, Mexico is the second largest oil-field. Of Ghawar I'd suppose we have no doubt, but is Mexico's Cantarell second-largest or Kuwait's Burgan? Hmm. Or was that second by daily production figures instead of reserve size?

Second by reserves, third by production

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Kuwaits Biggest Field Starts to Run Out of Oil (World's 2nd Largest)

It was an incredible revelation last week that the second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil Company revealed about its Burgan field.
Kuwait: Saturday, November 12 - 2005 at 08:46

The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al Zanki told Bloomberg.

He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate. Kuwait will now spend some $3 million a year for the next year to boost output and exports from other fields.

However, it is surely a landmark moment when the world's second largest oil field begins to run dry. For Burgan has been pumping oil for almost 60 years and accounts for more than half of Kuwait's proven oil reserves. This is also not what forecasters are currently assuming.

Forecasts Wrong
Last week the International Energy Agency's report said output from the Greater Burgan area will be 1.64 million barrels a day in 2020 and 1.53 million barrels per day in 2030. Is this now a realistic scenario?

[Aaron]

It is very possible that if they are admitting it's peaked, that it may have actually peaked long ago, and will experience a North Sea nose dive in production soon.

This is the doomer worst case scenario... OPEC members have managed to conceal their depletion long enough, that when it finally becomes apparent what's happening, it's way too late to act.

Short drop & a quick stop.

[Graeme]

In bloomberg type NI MIDEAST BN then type BURGAN in the search field and page forward about 20 times to see the story on 11/10.
excerpt:
Kuwait Oil Field, World's 2nd Largest, Is `Exhausted' (Update2)

By James Cordahi and Andy Critchlow
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Kuwaiti oil output from the world's second-largest field is ``exhausted'' and falling after almost six decades of pumping, forcing the government to increase spending on new deposits, the chairman of the state oil company said.
The plateau in output from the Burgan field will be about 1.7 million barrels a day, rather than as much as the 2 million a day that engineers had forecast could be maintained for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, said Farouk al Zanki, the chairman of state-owned Kuwait Oil Co. Kuwait will spend about $3 billion a year for the next three years to expand output and exports, three times the recent average.
To boost oil supplies, ``Burgan by itself won't be enough because we've exhausted that, with its production capability now much lower than what it used to be,'' al-Zanki said during an interview in his office in Ahmadi, 20 kilometers south of Kuwait
City. ``We tried 2 million barrels a day, we tried 1.9 million, but 1.7 million is the optimum rate for the facilities and for ...

TheWatt

[elroy]

Doomer's worst case ? You mean doomer's wet dream.

[DantesPeak]

As we see in the above example, it becomes progressively more expensive to extract oil as production declines. I think optimists about future oil production fail to note that the marginal cots of producing oil, therefore, is steadily increasing. Therefore it should not be surprising that the cost of energy, even in inflation adjusted terms, will keep increasing - if production is to be maintained.

[orz]

The wording of it seems like they are keeping the rate low so as to maintain some sort of plateau of production, but then again, this doesn't seem like the best time to trust them.

[some_guy282]

I thought the world's second largest field was in Mexico?

In any event, how long until the Saudis are letting the world know Ghawar's production is hiting a peak, but telling us not to worry because they have so many other great fields they have yet to develop.

[MicroHydro]

This is a confirmation of what Simmons has been saying about Saudi. Kuwait's rate of 1.9mbpd was 0.2mbpd above the sustainable rate of production. Probably they were losing reservoir pressure.

Simmons thinks that Saudi is above their maximum rate of production already, and will have to back off very soon.

[0mar]

well Burgan has been producing since the '30s. This was inevitable.

[GreyZone]

I thought the world's second largest field was in Mexico?

In any event, how long until the Saudis are letting the world know Ghawar's production is hiting a peak, but telling us not to worry because they have so many other great fields they have yet to develop.

Does it matter whether Burgan or Cantarell is 2nd and 3rd or 3rd and second? Regardless of order, have we not just watched this year announcements that the #2 and #3 fields are headed into decline? (Pemex confirmed Cantarell would begin to decline back in May, I believe.)

And further, as the article notes, the IEA estimates are all based on fields like Burgan and Cantarell continuing to produce near peak volume for decades, something that is not going to occur. The IEA now has serious credibility issues.

[RonMN]

Haven't they been pumping the ghawar field as long as the burgan field??? (or pretty close to the same time frame)?

[some_guy282]

I think Ghawar started producing in the late 40's or early 50's.

[Antimatter]

Petroleum Intelligence Weekly reports that state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC) has coped pretty well so far during the crises — boosting oil production briefly to a peak of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbd), maintaining oil exports, and just last week restoring refinery throughput to pre-war levels of around 0.9 mbd. A team from Kuwait Oil Co. has also helped put out a fire at one well in the Rumaila field in Iraq. In anticipation of possible disruptions, KPC has ramped up output from around 2.1 mbd in February to some 2.4 mbd at present. Some 0.085 mbd of production halted in March at the Ratqa and Abdali fields on the Iraqi border was made up by hiking output at the giant Burgan field. KPC restarted 17 wells at Ratqa last week. Fields in the south, including Burgan, are pumping about 1.36 mibd. There is also 0.35 mbd from western fields, and another 0.42 mbd from northern oil fields where production was not stopped. Some 0.14 mbd is coming from the offshore Neutral Zone, with about 0.12 mbd from the Khafji field and 0.018 mbd from Hout. The onshore Neutral Zone, which includes the Wafra, Umm Gudair, and South Fawaris fields, is producing 0.140 mbd, with about 0.040 mbd more coming from the shallow Eocene formation at Wafra. KPC is also working in the north to restore capacity at four fields, including Raudhatain, that were producing 0.62 mbd before an accident last year.

http://www.intertanko.com/tankernews/artikkel.asp?id=5576

Burgan seems to have been producing 1.35mb/d to 1.6mb'd or so for a while, I'm seeing a few different figures, partly because of confusion between Burgan and Greater Burgan area which includes other fields. They were looking at 2mb/d but decided on 1.7mb/d from what i can see. Kinda runs contrary to assertions of overproducing the fields in despairation.

[Flow]

Amazingly, you do a google on this and only one source is reporting it. For such a huge story you think it would be all over the place.

[GreyZone]

Amazingly, you do a google on this and only one source is reporting it. For such a huge story you think it would be all over the place.

If you read international news sources you see this happen fairly often.

Please go Google on "Myanmar nuke" and see what you get. Then go read. Then look at the dates on the news articles. Finally, ask yourself if nuclear proliferation issues involving Myanmar have ever been put forth on US mainstream media. And that's just one issue. There are many more like that.

I don't accept the political views of Pravda or China Daily or India Daily or Al Jazeera or many other sources but I do read them to see what is abuzz in the world. And on many occasions I've seen the entire rest of the world discussing an issue that the US media remain silent on. Why? Who knows but it probably has more to do with media in the US being a "profit center" and "entertainment" than a news source.

[savethehumans]

Gee. What. A. Surprise. NOT.