[Micki]

Is that a tripple bottom we see? Or kinda inverted head-n-shoulders?
Don't worry you'll get your price rise soon. Once if surpasses $50 on good volume it looks like it is off to da moon again.

[lowem]

Is that a tripple bottom we see? Or kinda inverted head-n-shoulders?
Don't worry you'll get your price rise soon. Once if surpasses $50 on good volume it looks like it is off to da moon again.

Or the beginnings of a 50/200-dma crossover after a 3-month base-building consolidation period.
Loaded up and ready to go

Disclaimer : Not a registered investment adviser yada-yada

[Graeme]

Kuwaiti Scientists Say Peak Oil Will Arrive in 2014

New research out of Kuwait, using a new method of calculating the crude oil production potential of 47 of the world’s largest oil producing countries, has found that peak oil — the period in time when oil production reaches a maximum and then begins to decline — will come much sooner than expected… 2014 to be exact.

The scientists’ new method for evaluating world peak oil timing stems from the well-tested, popular and generally accurate Hubbert method — which was the first model to accurately predict when oil supply would peak from United States oil fields in the 1970’s. However, the Hubbert model has been scrutinized as not accurately depicting individual, widely-varying, country-specific items such as changing technology and politics. To address these criticisms, the researchers modified the Hubbert model to calculate oil production trends that also include individual variations from country to country, and then applied it to the 47 largest oil producing countries in the world.

gas2

[JustaGirl]

It should be mentioned that their report is specifically talking about conventional oil, which I thought peaked in 2005.

[GoghGoner]

It should be mentioned that their report is specifically talking about conventional oil, which I thought peaked in 2005.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177

World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.

[ian807]

I'm inclined to take their assessment seriously for two reasons:

1) Close proximity to the world's largest oil reservoirs. They probably have access to regional seismic data that nobody else does.

2) They're not the Saudis. They're not busy trying to prop up their government by falsifying numbers.

[Homesteader]

I'm inclined to take their assessment seriously for two reasons:

2) They're not the Saudis. They're not busy trying to prop up their government by falsifying numbers.

What do you base that on?

They are cousins of the Saudi's.

[pup55]

I also believe this is a pretty significant development. Kuwait and Saudi are the backbones of the supply situation. When OPEC cuts back it is they, along with the Saudis, that do the cutting.

Unlike the Saudis they have not been out in the industry putting out statements about supply and trying to calm the market down.... So in a way they can say things that Saudi either dares not say, or cannot say..... so politically for them to make this kind of announcement is really interesting, because I cannot believe that they do not communicate this stuff back and forth all the time....

p.s. Kuwait is 25% Shiite/60% Sunni, because of their proximity to Iran so there is a significant Shiite minority.

[dorlomin]

Politicaly Kuwait has a parliament and an educated populous. It is not Saudi. Its not exactly Amsterdam or Las Vegas but it is a nation where the people have some voice.

I am not over familiar with the system but I am assuming it somewhat like the Gregorian era in the UK, an early stage transition from monarchy to parliamentary democracy. IIRC there has been quite a buzz in Kuwait about their oil reserves in the past, with questions being asked about true reserves as many of the more thoughtfull parliamentarians seem to feel stretching what they have as long as possible is a better national policy than pump like mad.

I think you would need a pretty solid knowledge of the personalities involved before going too deep into potential motivations for this report.

[Daniel_Plainview]

The researchers ... discovered that the world is already depleting its oil reserves at a rate of 2.1% per year

2.1%/yr seems a bit low.

[mos6507]

This report is DOA on MSM.

So if you're waiting for the breakthrough event that causes peak oil to become mainstream, this ain't it.

[rangerone314]

Politicaly Kuwait has a parliament and an educated populous. It is not Saudi. Its not exactly Amsterdam or Las Vegas but it is a nation where the people have some voice.

I am not over familiar with the system but I am assuming it somewhat like the Gregorian era in the UK, an early stage transition from monarchy to parliamentary democracy. IIRC there has been quite a buzz in Kuwait about their oil reserves in the past, with questions being asked about true reserves as many of the more thoughtfull parliamentarians seem to feel stretching what they have as long as possible is a better national policy than pump like mad.

I think you would need a pretty solid knowledge of the personalities involved before going too deep into potential motivations for this report.

At least they're attempting to do something useful with science, instead of something like trying to design improved suicide vests.

[Homesteader]

From a position of living in Kuwait for several years I can say the parliment has been in gridlock between the moderates, radicals and the Emir. Nothing, really nothing, substantive has been accomplished by the parliment in four years.

Take "an educated populous" with a grain of salt.

I'm not saying the report has no merit, just be careful what lens you view it through.

[Mesuge]

I'd say there is a difference between say Kuwait and Oman on one hand and Saudis - Dubai on the other though. The latter case disimilar at first glance but equally sick on the inside..

[ivanillich]

Here's a link to the actual study. Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model

[Homesteader]

[quote="Mesuge"]I'd say there is a difference between say Kuwait and Oman on one hand quote]

I gotta stick up for the Omani's. They and their country are on a whole other planet compared to Kuwait and the Kuwaitis. No one who has lived in the gulf and visited both countries would lump them together.

[GoghGoner]

This story is being ran on MSNBC, Yahoo, ScienceDaily, etc...

MSNBC

I think many folks have had an opportunity to learn about peak oil, however, most ignore it. Many folks even discount it. It may be important to government officials.

This report has OPEC producing 53 mbd in 2026. Looking over the last few years, it doesn't seem likely (putting it nicely).

[frankthetank]

Yup.. I just read the MSNBC link and came over here... I thought they were going to keep this hidden at all costs? Use smoke and mirrors to hide any decline? It isn't a main article and is somewhat buried on the front page, however.

I think we peaked already and are still on the plateau... like the Nirvana song