The Kuwait Thread (merged)

[Ferretlover]

This can't be good, right?

In the eye of a sandstorm
Arab News, March 11, 2009 (15 Rabi` al-Awwal 1430)
... skip ... In neighboring Kuwait, oil exports were restarted after a brief halt due to the storm and poor weather. Sources in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said their Gulf export operations were not affected. ... snip ...

Kuwait ceases exports because of bad weather Kuwait ceases exports because of bad weather
Bloomberg, Published: March 10, 2009, 22:50:
Kuwait City: Kuwait halted oil exports as a heavy sandstorm and strong winds hit the country, a Kuwait National Pet-roleum Company spokesman said.

"We stopped exports about five minutes ago ... due to the bad weather, the sandstorm and strong winds," Mohammad Al Ajmi said in a telephone interview yesterday. "All shipping operations have been stopped and we will need to monitor the situation for at least 12 hours."

The exports include crude, liquefied petroleum gas and other oil products. Kuwait, the fifth-largest producer of crude in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumped 2.14 million barrels of oil a day in February, according to Bloomberg data. ... snip ...

So where's the price *ka-boom*? What kind of a lag if any? Is there simply too much spare capacity around for this to do anything to the price?

[vision-master]

[bratticus]

[bratticus]

The Kuwait export suspension due to the sandstorm is happening concurrently with a multi-day force majeure

Shell declares force majeure on Forcados oil shipments

Reuters
Mon Mar 9, 2009

LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) has declared force majeure on its Nigerian Forcados oil shipments due to the impact of explosions on a pipeline last week, it said on Monday.

"Shell's joint venture has declared force majeure from Saturday on outstanding March and April Forcados offtakes," a Shell spokesman said.

Forcados exports were due to be around 184,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March and 285,000 bpd in April. Shell could not confirm how much of this would now be delayed or cancelled.

"The explosions on the trans-Escravos pipeline the weekend before last shut in some production. We're still working to recover the spilt oil and repair the pipeline," the company spokesman said.

Last week, Shell said it had shut in a number of oil installations after explosions on a pipeline that may have been due to sabotage.

The blasts caused at least three punctures to the 24-inch trans-Escravos pipeline, which sends crude oil from Shell's Forcados oilfields to the Escravos oil export terminal in Nigeria's Niger Delta.

A senior official from Nigeria's state oil firm NNPC, which jointly operates the pipeline with Shell's Nigerian unit SPDC, said as much as 70,000 bpd had been shut down due to the damage.

Nigeria's most prominent militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), called off a ceasefire a month ago. But it has not claimed any significant strikes against the industry, partly because the military has stepped up a campaign to flush out its fighters. (Reporting by Joe Brock; editing by James Jukwey)

But still the price hovers around $40/bbl for NYMEX CL



Are we drowning in spare capacity now or what?

[Micki]

Is that a tripple bottom we see? Or kinda inverted head-n-shoulders?
Don't worry you'll get your price rise soon. Once if surpasses $50 on good volume it looks like it is off to da moon again.

[GASMON]

Sand in de oil is not good for de bearings !!

Gasmon

[lowem]

Is that a tripple bottom we see? Or kinda inverted head-n-shoulders?
Don't worry you'll get your price rise soon. Once if surpasses $50 on good volume it looks like it is off to da moon again.

Or the beginnings of a 50/200-dma crossover after a 3-month base-building consolidation period.
Loaded up and ready to go

Disclaimer : Not a registered investment adviser yada-yada

[Graeme]

Kuwaiti Scientists Say Peak Oil Will Arrive in 2014

New research out of Kuwait, using a new method of calculating the crude oil production potential of 47 of the world’s largest oil producing countries, has found that peak oil — the period in time when oil production reaches a maximum and then begins to decline — will come much sooner than expected… 2014 to be exact.

The scientists’ new method for evaluating world peak oil timing stems from the well-tested, popular and generally accurate Hubbert method — which was the first model to accurately predict when oil supply would peak from United States oil fields in the 1970’s. However, the Hubbert model has been scrutinized as not accurately depicting individual, widely-varying, country-specific items such as changing technology and politics. To address these criticisms, the researchers modified the Hubbert model to calculate oil production trends that also include individual variations from country to country, and then applied it to the 47 largest oil producing countries in the world.

gas2

[JustaGirl]

It should be mentioned that their report is specifically talking about conventional oil, which I thought peaked in 2005.

[GoghGoner]

It should be mentioned that their report is specifically talking about conventional oil, which I thought peaked in 2005.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177

World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.

[ian807]

I'm inclined to take their assessment seriously for two reasons:

1) Close proximity to the world's largest oil reservoirs. They probably have access to regional seismic data that nobody else does.

2) They're not the Saudis. They're not busy trying to prop up their government by falsifying numbers.

[Homesteader]

I'm inclined to take their assessment seriously for two reasons:

2) They're not the Saudis. They're not busy trying to prop up their government by falsifying numbers.

What do you base that on?

They are cousins of the Saudi's.

[pup55]

I also believe this is a pretty significant development. Kuwait and Saudi are the backbones of the supply situation. When OPEC cuts back it is they, along with the Saudis, that do the cutting.

Unlike the Saudis they have not been out in the industry putting out statements about supply and trying to calm the market down.... So in a way they can say things that Saudi either dares not say, or cannot say..... so politically for them to make this kind of announcement is really interesting, because I cannot believe that they do not communicate this stuff back and forth all the time....

p.s. Kuwait is 25% Shiite/60% Sunni, because of their proximity to Iran so there is a significant Shiite minority.

[dorlomin]

Politicaly Kuwait has a parliament and an educated populous. It is not Saudi. Its not exactly Amsterdam or Las Vegas but it is a nation where the people have some voice.

I am not over familiar with the system but I am assuming it somewhat like the Gregorian era in the UK, an early stage transition from monarchy to parliamentary democracy. IIRC there has been quite a buzz in Kuwait about their oil reserves in the past, with questions being asked about true reserves as many of the more thoughtfull parliamentarians seem to feel stretching what they have as long as possible is a better national policy than pump like mad.

I think you would need a pretty solid knowledge of the personalities involved before going too deep into potential motivations for this report.

[Daniel_Plainview]

The researchers ... discovered that the world is already depleting its oil reserves at a rate of 2.1% per year

2.1%/yr seems a bit low.

[mos6507]

This report is DOA on MSM.

So if you're waiting for the breakthrough event that causes peak oil to become mainstream, this ain't it.

[rangerone314]

Politicaly Kuwait has a parliament and an educated populous. It is not Saudi. Its not exactly Amsterdam or Las Vegas but it is a nation where the people have some voice.

I am not over familiar with the system but I am assuming it somewhat like the Gregorian era in the UK, an early stage transition from monarchy to parliamentary democracy. IIRC there has been quite a buzz in Kuwait about their oil reserves in the past, with questions being asked about true reserves as many of the more thoughtfull parliamentarians seem to feel stretching what they have as long as possible is a better national policy than pump like mad.

I think you would need a pretty solid knowledge of the personalities involved before going too deep into potential motivations for this report.

At least they're attempting to do something useful with science, instead of something like trying to design improved suicide vests.

[Homesteader]

From a position of living in Kuwait for several years I can say the parliment has been in gridlock between the moderates, radicals and the Emir. Nothing, really nothing, substantive has been accomplished by the parliment in four years.

Take "an educated populous" with a grain of salt.

I'm not saying the report has no merit, just be careful what lens you view it through.

[Mesuge]

I'd say there is a difference between say Kuwait and Oman on one hand and Saudis - Dubai on the other though. The latter case disimilar at first glance but equally sick on the inside..