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The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 16:19:36

Pusher - "The most sensible thing to me would be to build the Keystone pipeline to the Bakken region...". That pipeline already exists: it's the Keystone Pipeline. Not to be confused with northern leg of the Keystone XL Pipeline. The southern portion of KXL was completed a couple of years ago with President Obama's blessing.

http://www.keystone-xl.com/kxl-101/maps/

So why build the KXL if the K running thru the Bakken play already existed? Easy answer: K was full to capacity carrying mostly Canadian oil sands production. So the plan was for the KXL to take most of what the K was carrying thus allowing it to pick up Bakken production.

But without the KXL opening up capacity on the K, what to do, what to do? I know: build another pipeline that doesn't cross the f*cking border. But what should we call it? Ohh, ohh...I know: the Dakota Access Pipeline...or DAPL. That shouldn't be difficult. Easy permits including those from the feds. And if the Native Americans don't like duplicating an existing pipeline thru the area? Well, f*ck 'em, we'll build it anyway. LOL.

And last June DAPL began moving about 500,000 bopd. Compare its route to that of the K route in the link above.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakota_ ... asemap.png

Though running diagonal it essentially duplicates the purpose of the K. Now with DAPL moving Bakken oil (saving about $3/bbl over rail costs) much of the financial incentive for building the KXL has been lost. And while $3/bbl doesn't sound like much but if it's saved on 500,000 bopd for just 5 years that saves about $2.7 BILLION.

As usual the MSM avoided laying out the simple and VERY OBVIOUS facts: the oil was going to get pipelined whether the border crossing permit was signed or not. And nothing was done in secret. Websites from Day 1 showed exactly the plan. It had nothing to say about DAPL until the protestors showed up right at the end of the construction phase. And even then the MSM made no effort to explain the dynamic. Such as President Obama's refusal to sign the permit resulted in a duplicate pipeline being built proximal to "sacred" Native Americans lands.

For a couple of years the Rockman REPEATEDLY explained what was happening. And often times mocked for his efforts by some folks whose heads were shoved so far up their asses they didn't know what day it was. LOL. But now it's done. Nothing to look at...move along.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 23:43:42

Keystone Pipeline leaks 210,000 gallons of oil in South Dakota

(CNN)A total of 210,000 gallons of oil leaked Thursday from the Keystone Pipeline in Marshall County, South Dakota, the pipeline's operator, TransCanada, said.
Crews shut down the pipeline Thursday morning and officials are investigating the cause of the leak, which occurred about 3 miles southeast of the town of Amherst, said Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the state's Department of Environment and Natural Resources.
This is the largest Keystone oil spill to date in South Dakota, Walsh said. The leak comes just days before Nebraska officials announce a decision on whether the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline, a sister project, can move forward......
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/16/us/keysto ... index.html


Only about 7 years old? Whoops!
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 06:17:53

It would be an even bigger whoops if this was done intentionally by the environ-terrorists.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 09:11:41

Cog wrote:It would be an even bigger whoops if this was done intentionally by the environ-terrorists.


Unlikely. The section that failed is underground.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 12:10:06

And to make sure folks aren't confused: the Keystone Pipeline leaked...not the Keystone XL Pipeline. Two separate distinct pipelines. How? Time will tell. Maybe bad pipe or bad welds. Or maybe a screw up at the pumping station and over pressured a section. Enviroterrorists? Maybe but I doubt it.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 12:46:13

ROCKMAN wrote:And to make sure folks aren't confused: the Keystone Pipeline leaked...not the Keystone XL Pipeline. Two separate distinct pipelines. How? Time will tell. Maybe bad pipe or bad welds. Or maybe a screw up at the pumping station and over pressured a section. Enviroterrorists? Maybe but I doubt it.


Understanding the difference, Rock, this will give ammo to those, especially in Nebraska, who are opposing the XL going forward based on eminent domain, aquifer contamination, and of course, Native Americans not wanting sovereign lands and water spoiled or defiled,, all that.

"The Nebraska Public Service Commission needs to take a close look at this spill," said Rachel Rye Butler of Greenpeace. "A permit approval allowing Canadian oil company TransCanada to build Keystone XL is a thumbs-up to likely spills in the future."


I'm betting these groups have been quick to file suits using this incident as proof of their claims. As for Keystone, it's kind of hard to claim something won't or is unlikely to happen when it already has, especially with one of their newer pipelines.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 16:45:39

There have been oil spills by train that were much more severe than this one. Pipelines are the most environmentally sound way to transport oil.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 17:38:22

Cog wrote:There have been oil spills by train that were much more severe than this one. Pipelines are the most environmentally sound way to transport oil.


The people opposing Keystone don't care.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 21:15:01

GHung wrote:
Cog wrote:There have been oil spills by train that were much more severe than this one. Pipelines are the most environmentally sound way to transport oil.


The people opposing Keystone don't care.



Sadly true. Unfortunately a lot of people who adopt the NIMBY way of life do not care if their obstruction causes greater harm, just so long as that harm is out of their sight and mind.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 21:28:37

underground pipeline bursts are very unusual. I am astounded it happened this early on in the pipeline history.
Most pipelines these days have real-time monitoring on them (or should have) which would identify potential problems before they become critical. If TCPL did not do so with this section of pipe then they should be called out on it.
the fact that the spill is relatively small (I didn't do the calculation but given the throughput and the amount spilled it only happened for a very short time) means either they figured it out immediately and shut in the flow or it was a temporary blip (and they happen for various reasons).
It will be important to understand the root cause. Not a good situation for TCPL or the industry right now.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 Nov 2017, 00:02:35

What happens in Nebraska will depend on whether the court rules with logic or emotions. Any pipeline is subject to a possible spill. Just as every passenger jet is subject to crashing and every school bus is subject to having an accident that kills kids. Given the 250,000 miles of pipelines in the US carrying petroleum their safety record is relatively good.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 13:13:51

Nebraska approves path for controversial Keystone XL pipeline

(CNN)Nebraska officials voted Monday to allow the Keystone XL pipeline to cross the state, a key step toward the completion of the Keystone Pipeline network.
The state's Public Service Commission voted 3-2 in favor of the expansion pipeline, days after the existing Keystone Pipeline spilled 210,000 gallons of oil in South .....

....The commission received a route approval application from TransCanada for the pipeline in February and has been evaluating the project in a process that included public hearings and comments.....

....Many supporters of the pipeline expansion say it'd be an economic boon. In 2015, the State Department said the project would create about 42,000 jobs directly and indirectly, including about 3,900 construction jobs.
It would also provide about $2 billion in economic benefits, the State Department review said. ....

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/20/us/nebras ... index.html
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 13:22:50

Now that prices have recovered into the $50/bbl range it seems quite likely the Tar Sands extraction will continue to expand, which makes having another dedicated pipeline built a sound economic proposal to consider. Whether trans-Canada proceeds or not will be an economic decision, not a political one.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 14:04:02

Ghung - I'm a tad surprised about the vote. And more then a little skeptical about the 42,000 temp jobs. They must be estimating a lot of indirect jobs. I've seen pipelines laid first hand and typically not more then a few hundreds hands. Maybe they anticipate many multiple sections under construction at once. But then I don't see it taking two years if that's the case. And $2 BILLION in benefit to the state? I would like to see that number broken down.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 14:30:15

ROCKMAN wrote:Ghung - I'm a tad surprised about the vote. And more then a little skeptical about the 42,000 temp jobs. They must be estimating a lot of indirect jobs. I've seen pipelines laid first hand and typically not more then a few hundreds hands. Maybe they anticipate many multiple sections under construction at once. But then I don't see it taking two years if that's the case. And $2 BILLION in benefit to the state? I would like to see that number broken down.


Gosh, Rock, you know how those "supporters of the pipeline expansion" like to 'expand' things, eh? Sort of like how those opposed like to 'expand' the risks. :roll:
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 09:30:52

My own rule of thumb, take the project cost and divide by $80,000 or $90,000 and you get rough number man years of work for the general economy. But who knows what KXL will cost given all the years of delays, restarting and rerouting. Obama's State department estimate was:

The State Department’s January 2014 report, which evaluated the project’s environmental and economic impact for the country, concluded, "A total of 42,100 jobs throughout the United States would be supported by construction of the proposed Project."

These jobs are measured on an "average annual" basis, meaning one position filled for one year. This total reflects both jobs created directly as a result of construction and manufacturing for the pipeline, as well as spinoff jobs supported by construction workers who purchase materials for the project or spend their wages in the economy.

According to the State Department, construction would require around 10,400 seasonal workers for stretches that would last either four or eight months. This works out to 3,900 "average annual" jobs over one year of construction, or 1,950 jobs each year if the project takes two years to finish.

The State Department estimates that 26,100 indirect and induced jobs "would be supported by construction of the proposed project" during the construction phase. The jobs would be in providing the supply chain to Keystone as well as employee spending on lodging, food, entertainment, health care, etc.


http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/st ... peline-jo/
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 12:11:45

"...as well as employee spending on lodging, food, entertainment, health care, etc". With the exception of lodging those employees would be spending those monies if they weren't working on the pipeline. And I suspect mobile man-camps will be built to house them. You can't have welders driving 6 to 8 hrs round trip every day to a motel.

I still haven't seen proof that these estimates are not inflated. Perhaps grossly so.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 14:14:10

ROCKMAN wrote:"...as well as employee spending on lodging, food, entertainment, health care, etc". With the exception of lodging those employees would be spending those monies if they weren't working on the pipeline. And I suspect mobile man-camps will be built to house them. You can't have welders driving 6 to 8 hrs round trip every day to a motel.

I still haven't seen proof that these estimates are not inflated. Perhaps grossly so.


Does it really matter if the number of jobs is 10,000 or 50,000? It's a private company willing to spend billions of dollars in the US and Canada to create infrastructure which will operate for 50-60 years, paying taxes and land fees that I would happily wager will be for many decades longer than Tesla's gigafactories will produce batteries.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 14:29:09

jawagord wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:"...as well as employee spending on lodging, food, entertainment, health care, etc". With the exception of lodging those employees would be spending those monies if they weren't working on the pipeline. And I suspect mobile man-camps will be built to house them. You can't have welders driving 6 to 8 hrs round trip every day to a motel.

I still haven't seen proof that these estimates are not inflated. Perhaps grossly so.


Does it really matter if the number of jobs is 10,000 or 50,000? It's a private company willing to spend billions of dollars in the US and Canada to create infrastructure which will operate for 50-60 years, paying taxes and land fees .....


.... and donate all of their profits to the Foundation for Homeless Three-Toed Hermaphrodites. What wonderful people!
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 16:24:17

Jaw - All true...if it gets built. I'll explain again how big pipeline projects typically get built. The construction time and payout period tend to be too long for companies to gamble. So they first solicit "subscribers": companies that commit to shipping a fixed amount of oil thru the pipeline for X amount of years at $Y/bbl. This protects the pipeline builder from market volatility. There will be a fixed period of time for subscriptions to be taken. If not enough subscriptions are made in that time period any subscription commitments are voided.

Last time I checked there was a bit of excess pipeline capacity to import Canadian oil. This leaves the new pipeline builders two problems. First, it will have to charge a competitive transport fee. IOW a smaller profit margin the other pipelines that may have already recovered 100% of their costs. Second, even if a lower fee is offered an oil owner might still be bound by its original subscription commitment. Also any existing subscription commitments for the new line are not enforceable until every required permit is in place. Also any lawsuit that halts construction can cause the clock to run out on existing subscriptions. TransCanada kept extending the original subscription period years ago as delays kept extending the border crossing permit. Eventually it cancelled the subscription period.
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