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The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 10:59:43

ROCKMAN wrote:S - Actually with the completion of the Dakota Access PL we'll probably see a net loss of pipeline construction jobs this year.


You don't think there be any jobs involved in building the newly approved Keystone XL pipeline?

Image
Who's going to drive the trucks and bulldozers and cranes and who's going to the do the engineering and surveying and who's gonna work at the restaurants to feed the crews and who's gonna make and sell the pipeline and supports and nuts and bolts and welding and all the construction gear and who makes the work uniforms and work shoes and gloves?

No Jobs will be created to do those things ? Really?

Cheers!
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 12:17:46

P - "You don't think there be any jobs involved in building the newly approved Keystone XL pipeline?" Time will tell but I suspect TransCanada won't get enough subscriptions to build the line anytime soon. Just my rough guess but there may be 10% to 20% excess transport capacity today. TransCanada might consider offering a very low tariff but the existing haulers (pipelines and trains) have already recovered a lot of their investments...some maybe all of it. Those companies could easily underbid KXL and still make a nice profit since they are now dealing only with maintenance and operating costs whereas TransCanada has to recover $billions of capex before it could see $1 of profit.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 13:30:36

Nowhere has the world seen such colossal environmental destruction as is being wreaked on Alberta. At one point the province even went so far as to consider a scientist’s idea of nuking its underbelly to get at the tar sands. Stupid to the Last Drop looks at the increasingly violent geopolitical forces that are gathering as the world’s gas and oil dwindle and the Age of Oil begins its inevitable slide towards oblivion. As Canadians deplete their energy reserves, selling them off to Americans at bargain-basement prices, no thought is given to conservation or the long-term needs of the nation

Stupid to the Last Drop: How Alberta Is Bringing Environmental Armageddon to Canada (And Doesn't Seem to Care
William Marsden

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=92dmgx0b5SY
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Mar 2017, 11:11:54

Midnight Oil wrote:At one point the province even went so far as to consider a scientist’s idea of nuking its underbelly to get at the tar sands.


Is that an example of "Fake News"?

Midnight Oil wrote: As Canadians deplete their energy reserves, selling them off to Americans at bargain-basement prices, no thought is given to conservation or the long-term needs of the nation


Yes, PM Trudeau just applauded the Keystone Pipeline XL deal. If you don't like the way Trudeau and the Liberals are running Canada then have the courage to criticize them directly. Its inaccurate to blame all Canadians for the policies of Trudeau and his political party.

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---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Mar 2017, 11:14:17

ROCKMAN wrote:P - "You don't think there be any jobs involved in building the newly approved Keystone XL pipeline?" Time will tell but I suspect TransCanada won't get enough subscriptions to build the line anytime soon. Just my rough guess but there may be 10% to 20% excess transport capacity today. TransCanada might consider offering a very low tariff but the existing haulers (pipelines and trains) have already recovered a lot of their investments...some maybe all of it. Those companies could easily underbid KXL and still make a nice profit since they are now dealing only with maintenance and operating costs whereas TransCanada has to recover $billions of capex before it could see $1 of profit.


Good point.

After all the protests and the multibillion dollar lawsuit Transcanada filed over Obama's blockage of the pipeline I never considered the possibility that they will flip flop and not even built it. --- Lets see what happens, i.e. You may be right.

However, since the current oil glut isn't going to last forever, and a company like TransCanada has to plan for the long term, there still may be motive for them to build the Pipeline in spite of the current glutted oil market if Transcanada believes the oil markets will be firmer a few years down the road.

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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Sun 26 Mar 2017, 13:37:48

, to some extent, is a doomsday scenario of the eventual demise of Alberta through the over exploitation of its oil and gas resources. To a degree this is a warranted prognosis. Much of Alberta's resources are environmentally difficult to extract compared to oil in Arab countries. The extraction methods are environmentally invasive; the tar sands around Fort McMurray and natural gas in southeastern Alberta are the prime examples used in this book.

The rivers and water sheds are being chemically polluted. Indian communities north of Fort McMurray where the Athabasca flows are getting rare forms of cancer. Farmers in southeastern Alberta develop skin rashes and irritations because their water wells are becoming toxic from extraction of natural gas. The Alberta and Canadian governments are ignoring this. The energy companies are obfuscating. The Alberta government, ignoring the Kyoto Protocols, has given energy companies an environmental carte blanche to come in and shop. All for money and jobs - a good election platform. It makes one wonder what happens to people in less developed areas of the world where there are no environmental movements and human rights can be trampled. Even though the farmers and the Indians are suffering they are at least permitted an outlet and can voice some dissent - and their claims can be made to the governments.

Mr. Marsden is excellent at pointing out the problems of minority groups and small communities - Indians in Fort Chipewyan or dispersed farmers can do little to combat the forces of energy companies that are being backed up by the government.

https://www.amazon.com/Stupid-Last-Drop ... 0676979149

“[Marsden brings] a fresh pair of discerning eyes to an unusual series of nation-changing events. . . . [H]e confidently reports how an entire province is destroying itself, and then asks why no one in Canada ‘seems to care.’ . . . The biggest stupidities that Marsden discovers could and probably should shock any Canadian. . . . Yet Marsden’s unsettling exposé of careless decision-making sheds more needed light on some very dark corners in Alberta (and Canada). He has walked into a provincial boom-town, populated largely by arrogant and greedy males (Hells Angels with suits), and not flinched. Good on you, partner.” —Andrew Nikiforuk, The Globe and Mail

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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Sun 26 Mar 2017, 18:09:54

Want to be an ex-politician? Run on the platform of less jobs and an economic downturn.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 26 Mar 2017, 19:13:43

P - "there still may be motive for them to build the Pipeline" Just to beat you over the head for the fun of it...LOL. Motives don't play into building multi-$billion pipelines. It's done strictly on the basis of the economic model. And that model is based on a GUARENTTEED REVENUE STREAM. Pipeliners are not wildcatters...they tend to be the most conservative folks involved in the process. For one thing even successful pipelines take a lot longer to recover the investment compared to drilling a successful well. But the BIG DIFFERENCE: a pipeline can keep knocking out that same profit margin for 20 to 30 years...or longer. But the ROR might only be 6% or so.

So back to the "subscription phase". A sufficient number of oil (or NG) owners GUARENTEE shipping a set volume thru the line for a set period of time at a set price schedule. And it's not a just a promise or simple contract but financially backed contract. And since a producer might fall short they'll often have to back up the contract with futures contracts. And then there's the "subscription window": a set time period from the start date to a closing date when contracts have to be signed. And here's what happened to TransCanada: they had folks initially sign subscription contracts. But those contracts have a bail out clause: if the permits are not secured by a set date or construction doesn't start by a set date those contracts expire. So as the border crossing permit continued to be delayed the subscription closing date kept being extended. But companies have the option to not accept the new closing date. So as other transport options became available contracts were not renewed because companies signed subscriptions to other pipelines or railroads. Yes: the railroads and other pipelines were not going to invest hundreds of $millions expanding without guaranteed loads.

Trust me: the next step will be TransCanada advertising a new transcription phase. I'll keep a eye out for it. But given the existing excess capacity I won't be shocked to not see it happen anytime soon.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 08:21:55

The expansion of the oil sands industry in Alberta has led to significant deforestation in Canada’s boreal forests, which store vast amounts of atmospheric carbon and are threatened by climate change. More than 2 million acres of boreal forest have been lost or degraded because of oil sands mining.

Destruction of carbon-dense forests such as the boreal is a major contributor to climate change because the carbon stored in tree trunks and roots will eventually find its way back into the atmosphere after trees are cut down.

Strip-mining the boreal to extract the tar sands and processing the oil makes the sands much more damaging to the climate than conventional oil.

“I believe the carbon intensity of extraction and processing for the oil sands is about double that of conventional oil,” Homer-Dixon said.

If all the oil sands were extracted in Alberta, the emissions would be equivalent to burning all the oil in Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest oil producer — and all the carbon contained in the oil would end up in the atmosphere, making climate change worse.

And with the controversial Keystone XL Pipeline under construction, Canada seemed poised to do just that. Keystone XL would have carried crude oil from Alberta’s tar sands mines to refineries in Texas. From there, it would have been consumed in the U.S. or shipped to ports around the world
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 09:06:42

"Keystone XL would have carried crude oil from Alberta’s tar sands mines to refineries in Texas. From there, it would have been consumed in the U.S. or shipped to ports around the world"

FYI: all the oil that would have been carried by KXL was carried from Alberta’s tar sands mines to refineries in Texas...as it continues today. From there it was consumed in the U.S. or shipped to ports around the world. The childish assumption that alternative transport methods weren't going to be developed was common several years ago. Rather ridiculous to see it repeated today given the record amount of oil sands imports.

Some are so invested in their erroneous positions it's impossible for them to accept the reality.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 09:45:15

Photographer and pilot Alex MacLean wanted to learn more about the Keystone XL pipeline, which if approved will carry oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico, so he decided to take pictures from above of the tar sands that will supply oil to the project.

What he found shocked him.

“The scale of the operation is staggering,” MacLean told The Huffington Post. It’s “mind-boggling,” he said, how expansive it is, and how much money is being poured into drilling and strip mining for the viscous petroleum product that will give the Keystone XL pipeline its oil.


Hot waste fills a tailing pond at the Suncor mining site in Alberta.
MacLean took photos from 1,000 feet above northern Alberta’s oil operations. The tar sands, more commonly referred to in Canada as the oil sands, are the world’s third-largest petroleum reserve and underlie an area roughly the size of Florida. While the Alberta government says only 3 percent of the area is suitable for strip mining, in which forest and bog “overburden” is stripped away, that still amounts to about 1,850 square miles — an area larger than the state of Rhode Island.

Flying above wilderness beauty punctuated by slick oil sheens and puffs of smoke from a refinery, “you realize how wasteful we are,” MacLean said
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 31 Mar 2017, 12:31:53

Reuters - "Several environmental groups filed lawsuits against the Trump administration on Thursday to challenge its decision to approve construction of TransCanada Corp's controversial Keystone XL crude oil pipeline.".

Rather odd these same environmental groups did file lawsuits against President Obama's approval of permits to expand the capacity of the existing border crossing pipelines carrying oil sands production into the US. Permits that were critical to the effort that increased those imports to all time record levels. At the least you would have expected them to have protestors at the TransCanada southern KXL construction yard where President Obama praised its expansion and thus removing the choke point at Cushing OK that was impeding oil sands development.

And now they files a lawsuit against a new pipeline while the existing tranport system are 10% to 20% under utilized? IOW there more then sufficient capacity to import every bbl of oil sands production and then some. And with lower oil prices new Alberta projects are being delayed/suspended it may be many years before any new capacity is needed.

OTOH the probably have some lawyers doing it for free and gives them so new spin to help raise donations. After all they did such a great job delaying KXL and preventing so much of the "dirtiest oil on the planet" from being produced. LOL.

Maybe they'll be nice and send some of those donations to the Standing Rock tribe as an apology for causing the Dakota Access Pipe Line to be built as a result of the KXL delay. LOL.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 31 Mar 2017, 12:48:36

"...you realize how wasteful we are,” MacLean said" As wasteful as the aviation fuel he burned taking duplicates of hundreds of existing photos taken for years showing identical situations? Maybe he hasn't heard of the Internet? LOL.

He could have avoided generating that unnecessary GHG by buying this book: "A new book {2015} of aerial photographs, Beautiful Destruction, captures the awesome scale and devastating impact of Alberta's oil sands with stunning colours, contrasts and patterns."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... n-pictures

Well, maybe he sold those pictures so the additional GHG generation did produce a bit of a profit for him. Another "hero of the environment". LOL.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Fri 31 Mar 2017, 20:27:46

Boy, did I strike a NERVE, sorry Rockman for causing so much PAIN...NOT
LOL
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