by ennui2 » Sun 07 Sep 2014, 13:25:38
I haven't read through all the posts since my last reply, but I think there is too much emphasis on physical robots (hardware) and not enough on software. We live so much of our lives virtually as it is, and the actual value of US GDP is in large part driven by intellectual property.
I just read that the new Destiny game by the makers of Halo is costing a half a billion dollars. Why would Activision and its backers put up so much money for a single game? Because there's enough people out there willing to pay for it. What worth does the game has for society vs., let's say, 500 million worth of permaculture projects? Not much. But this is where our value-system is today. It's in bits and bytes and the commodities that make it all hum is taken for granted.
So if you look at a pie-chart of desirable (i.e. not McDonald's burger-flippers) jobs in the industrialized world, odds are it's going to involve manipulating computers in a way computers themselves can't do. There have been attempts for computers to write their own software for decades. I don't think it can be done. And attempts by computers to make art from scratch is not that successful either. And we already know that they can't act in soft skills that well. Siri can bring you real-estate search-results but can't function as a real-estate agent with real sales skills.
There's been all this ecotopia discussion about singularity and getting jacked into the matrix and it's kind of happening in a more mundane way, by us being wired 24/7 via smart-phones and tablets and Facebook buying Occulus Rift for a billion (BTW, in my new job, despite it being medical-related, I'm going to be asked to develop an app for Occulus). There is a tremendous need for content to fill up this space that we're spending most of our time in. That's where the demand for workers is EXPANDING rather than contracting.
In a longer time-frame, if people wind up snapping back into their bodies and start worrying about the cost of gas or groceries, then maybe all this will come down like a house-of-cards. However, this is where I see things moving for the time-being. You get a job that is in some way directly related to IT, and odds are you won't be put out of work by a "robot". Maybe a 3rd worlder, but not some self-aware humanoid robot like out of a 1950s dystopian novel.
Now it IS true that robotics are getting more capable of simulating real conversations and more anthropomorphic. I just see this as mostly a luxury toy at this point and not something that will begin to converge onto any significant part of the workforce. The kind of work society wants to replace most that are still only doable by humans (like nursing-home workers who change bedpans) are not the kinds of things anybody should aspire to anyway.
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