Personally, I think it's an utter miracle that they are able to export 1.6 million barrels of anything out of that madhouse, much less a flammable substance.
At or about 1979, when we were friendly with Saddam and we were using them to counteract Iran, they produced 3 mbpd, about twice what they are doing now, by all reports.
As of 1985 they claimed 65 gb reserves. This was during the 10-year long war with Iran. Since then there was the 1991 trashing of the oil fields durng GW-one, the ten-year long "oil for food" program and sanctions, which led them to do practically no maintenance on their oil infrastructure, and since 2003, well, we all know what has happened.
If the BP Review data is right, they pumped out a total of 12 gb of oil since 1985.
They claim on paper to have this 115 gb of reserves, so the first red flag should be to figure out how they managed to come up with essentially doubling their reserves despite all of the disasters that have gone on in the last 20 years.
Secondly, you have to ask the question, even if Iraq did have the reserves, what investment in security would be required to keep the friendly citizens of Iraq from suicide bombing the production just to spite the US. As far as I can tell, it's taking about $300 billion per year for us to keep our military over there, and that has resulted in the 1.6 mbpd production rate, so I suppose that comes to about $513 per barrel, if my spreadsheet is right, so who (besides GWB) is going to be willing to pay twice this much to get production back up to 3 mbpd, even if they can?
So you can do several scenarios:
1. We make the security investment, and can start pumping the oil at 3 mbpd (1 gb per year) ($500 per barrel) and then find out the reserves are only 53 gb per year (65 minus 12), at which point they have 17 years of oil left. The net improvement to global capacity is 1.4 mbpd, which is about what the US growth rate is. How long can the taxpayers afford to do this?
2. We keep going the way we are (unsustainable), the oil continues to trickle out of there, they actually do have 115 gb of reserves, but we cannot get it out. Stable production for 60 years or so, but just a trickle. no one (apparently) is willing to back off of the current "investment" we are making in the region, so we continue to pay this amount per barrel indefinitely.
3. The Islamic Messiah is comes down and calms down all of the violence, we are able to pump 3 mbpd (1 gb per year), the reserves are what they say they are, and the reserves last 100 years but the rest of the world is a smoking ruin because even that is not enough to take care of the depletion of current fields elsewhere.
4. Same thing as (3) happens but somebody invests the $300b per year in reconstruction to rebuild their oil industry. Maybe they get up to 10 mbpd, which is what Saudi is capable of producting, at which point they are out of business in somewhere between 4 and 30 years depending on how truthful they were on the reserves.
Data source: 2006 BP Review
So, even the most wildly optimistic, messiah scenario says that even at full production, Iraq will not be able to give any relief to the real problem for more than a few years, and even this will be at the expense of at least $30 per barrel of oil, and maybe a lot more than that.
So the whole thing seems like a really terrible business proposition, any way you look at it.