THE Iraqi Oil Thread pt 2 (merged)

[Cloud9]

That's why we are there. We are not interested in the world, the green machine needs fuel.

[eXpat]

At the moment the locals are a bit upset about letting multinats plunder their natural resources. Maybe you didn´t hear LateGreatPlanetEarth, but not a long time ago, it was an invasion to that country regarding that...

[mos6507]

Their natural resources aren't worth anything until they are sold off to the highest bidder. Any other growth industries in Iraq besides roadside bombs and undertakers?

[Plantagenet]

The oil industry in Iraq has never been modernized and little or no modern scientific work has been done utilizing modern geophysical and geological methods for oil exploration. There probably is a great deal of potential there for very significant production increases and perhaps even for the discovery of some major new oil fields.

[Tanada]

The oil industry in Iraq has never been modernized and little or no modern scientific work has been done utilizing modern geophysical and geological methods for oil exploration. There probably is a great deal of potential there for very significant production increases and perhaps even for the discovery of some major new oil fields.

I am willing to grant Iraq might be the new KSA in terms of resources and production for the 2010-2020 period.

Will it matter very much on the Hubbert downslope for conventional oil production?

[eastbay]

wiki: "30 bn barrels of oil in place" How much of that is recoverable? 70%?, or good for 9 months world consumption

You're both right, then. If true, and I tend to doubt it.... but IF true, peak oil will be put off a few months. Lucky us. Time to celebrate.

[Kristen]

JUst think of all that money Iraq is going to make for the United States.

[Poordogabone]

Their natural resources aren't worth anything until they are sold off to the highest bidder. Any other growth industries in Iraq besides roadside bombs and undertakers?

who is behind the purge of academics and scientists since the "war" began in Iraq ? we did send a country that had the best educational system among arab nations back midway to the stone age, between 2 wars and 10 years of sanctions. So let's give a big pat on our collective back, mission accomplished, it looks indeed like oil will be their sole revenue in the near future.

[TheDude]

Toplink is behind WSJ paywall. Are they suggesting Manjoon has 30 bbo URR? That's odd, since the EIA says 12.6 bbo.

Average production gain for Iraq 2004-2008 was 98.25 kb/d. 2008 levels are 69% of 1979 peak, and these fields have been producing all through the interim, with at least 2 decades of extremely bad reservoir management as well.

[rockdoc123]

Are they suggesting Manjoon has 30 bbo URR? That's odd, since the EIA says 12.6 bbo.

WoodMac clarifies this somewhat by stating the estimated reserves vary widely depending on the source.....usually between 7 - 20 billion barrels but as high as 35 billion barrels.

They note that based on the field development plan 9.7 billion barrels would be produced and it would require considerably more development to increase that. So I guess you could say the P1 is 9.7 billion barells and 5 TCF of gas, P1 + P2 closer to the 12.6 bbbl level and 3P maybe as high as 30?

[evilgenius]

Since the Saudi infrastructure already exists and the Iraqi infrastructure needs so much buildout and they are right next door to each other the obvious solution would seem to be a co-mingling. If this happens there will be no way to tell what is coming from whom because of the penchant for secrecy. We will be right back at a guessing level, just like we are today with Ghawar.

[vampyregirl]

The Iraqui Ministry of Oil has awarded Shell and Petronas Carigali a contract for technical assistance in developing the Majnoon field.
Shell is operator of the Development and Service Contract with a 45% share. The Iraqui Ministry of Oil holds a 25% share and Petronas 30%.
The goal is to raise production to 1.8 million bpd, up from the current level of 45k bpd.
Shell looks forward to developing this resource base along with its partners.

[Tanada]

The Iraqui Ministry of Oil has awarded Shell and Petronas Carigali a contract for technical assistance in developing the Majnoon field.
Shell is operator of the Development and Service Contract with a 45% share. The Iraqui Ministry of Oil holds a 25% share and Petronas 30%.
The goal is to raise production to 1.8 million bpd, up from the current level of 45k bpd.
Shell looks forward to developing this resource base along with its partners.

Good for Iraq, good for the USA economy, not so sure its good for Planet Earth.

[OilFinder2]

Interesting write-up on Iraqi oil production in The Oil Drum:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6101

[dsula]

Did anybody read this. Looks like we got another 10 years.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6101

A couple of years ago, Iraqi oil production was declining and it didn't seem too likely the country would stabilize any time soon to allow that to change. However, the post-surge stabilization of Iraq has now allowed Iraqi oil production to start creeping up, and in 2009 the Iraqi oil ministry has announced large numbers of contracts with major oil companies to bring production up from the current 2.5mbd or so to 12 mbd over the course of the next 6-7 years. It is also announcing a series of projects to increase the physical export capacity of the country in line with these oil production projects.

What say the experts to this? Is it possible to extend the plateau for another 10 years?

[mos6507]

who is behind the purge of academics and scientists since the "war" began in Iraq ? we did send a country that had the best educational system among arab nations back midway to the stone age, between 2 wars and 10 years of sanctions. So let's give a big pat on our collective back, mission accomplished, it looks indeed like oil will be their sole

How many oil producing countries have a thriving industry aside from oil?

Maybe the european countries are an example, but they developed their economies long before the North Sea.

But I have yet to see a back-water country strike it rich with oil and do something productive with it. They almost always squander it, leaving them with nothing to fall back on, like Mexico is doing today.

[Plantagenet]

Forbes magazine just did a nice article on the "top 10" oil fields of the next decade. Cantarell and other huge oil fields around the world have peaked, so Forbes tries to predict that what will be next. Forbes predicts that the 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest oilfields in the world during the next decade will all be in Iraq. These oilfields are only being fully developed now by BP, Exxon, etc.

Iraq will have 3 of 4 biggest oil fields in the world within the next decade

[SeaGypsy]

The article tallies 51 billion barrels in place in Iraq's main 3 fields. Less than 3 years worth of current demand.

[TheDude]

They also have The 10 Most Influential Business Gurus listed.

Every field on that list - every one - has serious challenges in its development, technical and/or geopolitical. The production targets set for the Iraqi fields are given as fait accompli, sans delay of course; he cites the damage done to Kirkuk as evidence that it will decline irrevocably, showing an utter naivety about the status of all of the producing fields in that country, which have all been seriously abused by management.

Plus Kashagan, pre-salt, Saudi workovers, Orinoco tar. Leave anything out? For all we know all of these projects could be delayed indefinitely or prove uneconomical due to technical challenges, or not perform up to expectations - anybody have any real field data on KSA yet? Venezuela has had its heavy oil resource on tap for over a century, I believe, yet produces a mere pittance out of it. Whenever the price of oil rises and it becomes economical Hugo puts the kibosh on outside investment - when will that disparity be resolved?

[Armageddon]

And people wonder why 911 was staged.