[KevO]

great excuse for an invasion but do that there would have to be tens of thousands of troops in the countries either side of Iran. Not sure what those countries are (?) but to get troops into two counties bordering Iran would take years.

[KevO]

yes I know it's Iraq and Afghanistan

But seriously this puts pressure on the US troops in Iraq to do something immediatly

[mos6507]

yes I know it's Iraq and Afghanistan

But seriously this puts pressure on the US troops in Iraq to do something immediatly

No it doesn't. It's like the time the Iranians shot at the US ship. It's a skirmish that will come and go.

[gollum]

I strongly suspect (but do not know) that our army in Iraq in not capable of going to the field against Iran without large scale preparation. An army organized to fight an insurgency by doing house to house searches is rarely ready to go to the field against a mechanised opponent.
Anecdotally I hear a lot of stories of tankers (I am former tank crewman) spending all of their time doing occupation duty in HUMVEES etc. From the YouTube videos I glean of my old unit this seems to be at least partially true.
This would go a long way towards us appearing to want to avoid confrontation with Iran.

[KevO]

I strongly suspect (but do not know) that our army in Iraq in not capable of going to the field against Iran without large scale preparation. An army organized to fight an insurgency by doing house to house searches is rarely ready to go to the field against a mechanised opponent.
Anecdotally I hear a lot of stories of tankers (I am former tank crewman) spending all of their time doing occupation duty in HUMVEES etc. From the YouTube videos I glean of my old unit this seems to be at least partially true.
This would go a long way towards us appearing to want to avoid confrontation with Iran.

are you saying that Iran might win?

[Sixstrings]

I strongly suspect (but do not know) that our army in Iraq in not capable of going to the field against Iran without large scale preparation. An army organized to fight an insurgency by doing house to house searches is rarely ready to go to the field against a mechanised opponent.
Anecdotally I hear a lot of stories of tankers (I am former tank crewman) spending all of their time doing occupation duty in HUMVEES etc. From the YouTube videos I glean of my old unit this seems to be at least partially true.
This would go a long way towards us appearing to want to avoid confrontation with Iran.

I agree with you there.. hence the US military playing this down, and saying it will be resolved by diplomatic means.

What remains to be seen is how far the Iranians take this.. whether or not they seize a few more wells. I would guess we really aren't capable of acting quickly, so you'd end up with an embarrassing Jimmy Carter appeasement scenario.

Not that conflict with Iran would be a good thing.. we all know that'll send oil prices sky high.

[KevO]

I strongly suspect (but do not know) that our army in Iraq in not capable of going to the field against Iran without large scale preparation. An army organized to fight an insurgency by doing house to house searches is rarely ready to go to the field against a mechanised opponent.
Anecdotally I hear a lot of stories of tankers (I am former tank crewman) spending all of their time doing occupation duty in HUMVEES etc. From the YouTube videos I glean of my old unit this seems to be at least partially true.
This would go a long way towards us appearing to want to avoid confrontation with Iran.

I agree with you there.. hence the US military playing this down, and saying it will be resolved by diplomatic means.

What remains to be seen is how far the Iranians take this.. whether or not they seize a few more wells. I would guess we really aren't capable of acting quickly, so you'd end up with an embarrassing Jimmy Carter appeasement scenario.

Not that conflict with Iran would be a good thing.. we all know that'll send oil prices sky high.

maybe this is the plan. Iran goes nuclear, switches off the taps to the west and keeps it for its own use.
In 10 years Iran could be more powerful than the US. If they get the nuke stations up and running , and they are certainly making a sterling effort even if it's just for energy so then they can power themselves anyway and their upcoming electric car investment whilst the greedy oil drinkers of the world basically starve to death without Iran doing anything.
or

or what?

[gollum]

I strongly suspect (but do not know) that our army in Iraq in not capable of going to the field against Iran without large scale preparation. An army organized to fight an insurgency by doing house to house searches is rarely ready to go to the field against a mechanised opponent.
Anecdotally I hear a lot of stories of tankers (I am former tank crewman) spending all of their time doing occupation duty in HUMVEES etc. From the YouTube videos I glean of my old unit this seems to be at least partially true.
This would go a long way towards us appearing to want to avoid confrontation with Iran.

are you saying that Iran might win?

Well anything "might" happen, I am saying that I suspect we are in no position to field Brigade size formations at this time, and that we would sustain more casualties and material losses than what are acceptable to us as a country. I doubt we would be thrown from the middle east due to our ability to bring air power to bear but we would almost certainly have to cede a lot of territory, then either negotiate or use force to take it back. Perhaps Iran has sensed a weakness?

[mos6507]

I really don't think Iran has any aspirations of conquering Iraq. If they even give off the vibe that they are trying to do that, it would be like when Saddam invaded Kuwait. It would be the one thing that could get the UN to authorize military force. That would be the worst strategic blunder they could possibly make.

[gollum]

I really don't think Iran has any aspirations of conquering Iraq. If they even give off the vibe that they are trying to do that, it would be like when Saddam invaded Kuwait. It would be the one thing that could get the UN to authorize military force. That would be the worst strategic blunder they could possibly make.

I think Iran would like to embarass us, and is probably doing a decent job of doing so.

[Dreamtwister]

I really don't think Iran has any aspirations of conquering Iraq. If they even give off the vibe that they are trying to do that, it would be like when Saddam invaded Kuwait. It would be the one thing that could get the UN to authorize military force. That would be the worst strategic blunder they could possibly make.

I agree. Iran is in a far stronger position if it continues to goad America. Obviously, nobody would "win" the war, since it would destroy the global economy. However, the longer Iran can present itself as a potential threat without actually doing anything (border skirmishes notwithstanding), the more the American military will overextend itself.

Gollum also raises a good point about force readiness. I've been reading a lot of Vandergriff recently, and this sounds like classic 4GW thinking. It's taken nearly a decade, but the US military is finally starting to learn (ever-so-slowly) how to fight an insurgency. What better timing for changing strategic the tempo, forcing them to stop what they are doing and return to an "armor verses armor" posture. Way to get inside that OODA loop, Iran.

[Carlhole]

Iran virtually OWNS all that southern Iraqi territory. There is nothing that anyone can do to stop Iran from exercising its will in the region.

[KevO]

IRAQ RESPONDS
link

[mattduke]

Operation Iraqi Liberation II

[mos6507]

I think Iran would like to embarass us, and is probably doing a decent job of doing so.

It's only an embarassment if we fall for this baiting. The more they try to play the bully the more they paint themselves into a corner in the eyes of the world.

[mos6507]

Operation Iraqi Liberation II

I'm sure there are many Iraqis who can't wait to be the next Neda.

[bratticus]

How often does Iraq seize Iran's oilfields these days?

[Plantagenet]

1. Iran has now denied they'd crossed over the border to seize the bit of territory.

2. This seizure was done to intimidate foreign oil companies from bidding on Iraqi oil leases, especially those near the border.

Iranians deny it happened.

[eXpat]

Iraq sends forces to oil well seized by Iran

BAGHDAD — Iraq deployed security forces Saturday near a remote oil well seized by Iran, officials said, and its government pressed Tehran to withdraw its forces from the area along their disputed southern border.
U.S. officials applauded Iraq for standing its ground against Iran — an uneasy ally that analysts said was aiming to remind its neighbor of its economic and political pull in its takeover of the oil well Thursday. The site is located in one of the largest oil fields in Iraq and has about 1.5 billion barrels in reserves.

The standoff was a dramatic display of the occasionally tense relations between the two oil-rich nations that fought an eight-year war in the 1980s but now share common ground in Shiite-led governments.

http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/iraq-sends-forces-to-247318.html