THE Iran Thread pt 4 (merged)

[Taghayee]

A lot of people voted for change and they got more of the same, how did you expect them to react?

The same way the Americans did after Bush's second victory or the Lebanese after the March 14 victory. The problem with the liberal camp in ME is that all is good and peachy and fruity when they win, otherwise its ..................

[Ancient]

Go read through my blog if you want, where I've compiled everything.

hah! You're not going to let go of that big icy glass of kool-aid no matter what happens are you?

What are you afraid of? It's okay to admit that Obama is a hoax perpetrated on the American people by the same people that brought us George Bush, the Iraq war and the economic collapse.

It doesn't make you a Republican to do so. Don't be so hard on yourself. You made a mistake. Deal with it and move on. The longer you clutch the kool aid, the harder it will be to let go.

It's easy to laugh with american perception, but it's kinda cheap. America can't do anything in Iran before checking with Russia and China today. I'm not saying it lacks the military force (although you might say it had a little imperial overstretch during mr bush), but at least they sobered up thanks to Obama and realized that they lack the political ànd economical power.
Iranian attitude will not change a lot with either one of their presidents, but Iran is plugged into the world, the people want a bigger piece of the cake, they simply don't want another war, and more buying power. Not likely to happen when its president thinks he should make a point towards the Western world.

[deMolay]

Personally I think this is wonderful news for the world. The main state sponsor of terror and murder is coming apart. But what are the worldwide ramifications? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... /#comments

[threadbear]

Personally I think this is wonderful news for the world. The main state sponsor of terror and murder is coming apart. But what are the worldwide ramifications? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... /#comments

Iran is the nexus point for the undercutting of the dollar as reserve currency. As long as nations are forced to use the dollar, they are basically financing U.S. aggression. Not a good thing, deMolay, no matter how it's framed in the mainstream media.

[dorlomin]

Personally I think this is wonderful news for the world. The main state sponsor of terror and murder is coming apart. But what are the worldwide ramifications? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... /#comments

My guess is you have not the foggiest clue about the politics of Mousavi, Rasfanjani and the other opposition leaders.

[deMolay]

That is true, that is why I asked the question of you and others. I don't think the opposition leader would be anybetter than the current guy. In fact I think this revolt is bigger than him or the current government. And in response to Threadbear, I think as the US has to cutback it's military all over the world, the ramifications of that will be profound as well. If we think we have seen piracy rise up, we have seen nothing yet.

[threadbear]

That is true, that is why I asked the question of you and others. I don't think the opposition leader would be anybetter than the current guy. In fact I think this revolt is bigger than him or the current government. And in response to Threadbear, I think as the US has to cutback it's military all over the world, the ramifications of that will be profound as well. If we think we have seen piracy rise up, we have seen nothing yet.

Definitely a game changer, that could leave a lot of regional power vacuums in it's wake, as in Europe just prior to the first world war.

[deMolay]

Now that is exactly what I was wondering. The big vacum, and even moreso. What or Who will fill that vacum, and what will it mean in our world?

[deMolay]

On CNN just now they are reporting that they have blown up a bomb at Ayatollah Khomeni's grave site, and the violence is escalating rapidly. I wonder if there are Iranian websites with a more accurate picture of what is really going on. Has the price of oil played a part in this, by cutbacks in entitlements etc?

[dorlomin]

That is true, that is why I asked the question of you and others. I don't think the opposition leader would be anybetter than the current guy. In fact I think this revolt is bigger than him or the current government. And in response to Threadbear, I think as the US has to cutback it's military all over the world, the ramifications of that will be profound as well. If we think we have seen piracy rise up, we have seen nothing yet.

The crowds on the street are chanting 'Allah Akhbar', there is little or no call to end the Islamic republic. The main thrust seems to be greater personal freedom, less corruption and an openening of the press. Mousavi, the candidate was one of the key people in the revolution of 79 and both he and Rasfanjani were personaly very close to Khomeni.

However they both would represent a very different tone than Ahamadinejad, for example Rasfanjani has publicaly shaken the hands of an Israeli president (at the popes funeral) and in the imediate aftermath of 911 was trying to push his "dialogue of the civilisations" idea. They would seek an acomadation with Israel, but I very strongly doubt that would include any deal on Israeli settlement on the occupied territories.

An acomadation between the US and Iran would be a very good thing for both, they both have strong interests in a stable Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The only truly unacceptable part of US policy is its support for the Wahabists in Saudi, but the Persians have been living with them for centuaries and can quiet happily get by now that Iraq is a Shia nation.

It will be intersting to see which way this swings but I cant quite see Ahamadinejad falling from power. It is possible but I just dont see it atm. A big massicare of protester though would almost certainly see him out of the job.

[dorlomin]

Has the price of oil played a part in this, by cutbacks in entitlements etc?

Very much so. Ahamadinejad pissed away the boom in oil prices and when the price crashed he had to cut back on programs for the poor, his base.

[threadbear]

Now that is exactly what I was wondering. The big vacum, and even moreso. What or Who will fill that vacum, and what will it mean in our world?

Could definitely be a case of "Be careful what you pray for". Gangsterism and Islam could rise. One as a reaction to the other in Eastern Europe. Russia could try to reassert control over it's old satellite states, but it's an economic basket case too, so that's not likely. China could have difficulties with an Islamic wave on the fringe areas it shares with former Soviet nations. All will be suffering from this economic sh**storm. Imagine China, if the US goes full bore protectionist and corporations repatriate to North America, to recapture North American markets. Blood bath.

[Plantagenet]

Mousavi could abandon the nutty Holocaust denial and anti-semitism of the current regime, stop the nuclear weapons program, drop Iranian sponsorship for Hamas and Hezbollah, and reduce the power of the Mullahs in Iran.

It would be hard to get a worse government in Iran then the one they currently have.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Now that is exactly what I was wondering. The big vacum, and even moreso. What or Who will fill that vacum, and what will it mean in our world?

Failed states, I suppose.

All major global powers, not only US are in trouble.
You only wait for the first year of Chinese GDP growth below 3% and you will realize that.

BTW. I doubt for Iran to fall apart anytime soon.
Thousands of years old nation, not much minority problems, single major and all powerful religion etc.
Don't fool yourself.
They will hold.

[Schmuto]

The main state sponsor of terror and murder is coming apart.

Don't be too hard on America - a lot of us here don't like the way our government conducts its foreign affairs.

[mos6507]

I don't think the opposition leader would be anybetter than the current guy.

I think he would. We don't need a saint in Iran. We just need someone who won't spark WWIII.

[NoWorries]

I think the original poster is jumping the gun here. The Iranian govt is not about to fall, and it is extremely unlikely that the current protests will amount to anything resembling a coup. The loser in these kinds of contests (self-styled "reformers" versus the old guard) often protest the outcome and allege corruption, but eventually they settle down and accept reality. These protests are unlikely to last much more than a week or so.

[Tyler_JC]

Mousavi could abandon the nutty Holocaust denial and anti-semitism of the current regime, stop the nuclear weapons program, drop Iranian sponsorship for Hamas and Hezbollah, and reduce the power of the Mullahs in Iran.

It would be hard to get a worse government in Iran then the one they currently have.

I agree with Plantagenet on this one.

The protesters aren't just against the current president, they are against the entire Iranian regime.

I've seen reports of students publicly denouncing the "supreme leader" and "death to the dictator". I have a feeling that this is bigger than a disputed election. If the Iranian dictatorship isn't able to crush the revolution quickly, they could be in trouble.

I'm hopeful that this will lead to positive change in Iran but I don't know enough about the inner dynamics of the country to know if this movement will succeed.

Is this Eastern Europe in 1989? I don't know...

[dorlomin]

I've seen reports of students publicly denouncing the "supreme leader" and "death to the dictator".

Because he has sided with the Prime Minister and interfered. The 'dictator' is Ahamadinejad.

[RdSnt]

Personally I think this is wonderful news for the world. The main state sponsor of terror and murder is coming apart. But what are the worldwide ramifications? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... /#comments

Well, yes it is a good thing that the US (the main state sponsor of terror and murder) is coming apart. The implications for Iran may be good or bad. If the US collapses quickly then it could be good for Iran. If the US collapses more slowly then that could be bad as it gives the US time to continue blaming everything on others.