deMolay wrote:That is true, that is why I asked the question of you and others. I don't think the opposition leader would be anybetter than the current guy. In fact I think this revolt is bigger than him or the current government. And in response to Threadbear, I think as the US has to cutback it's military all over the world, the ramifications of that will be profound as well. If we think we have seen piracy rise up, we have seen nothing yet.
The crowds on the street are chanting 'Allah Akhbar', there is little or no call to end the Islamic republic. The main thrust seems to be greater personal freedom, less corruption and an openening of the press. Mousavi, the candidate was one of the key people in the revolution of 79 and both he and Rasfanjani were personaly very close to Khomeni.
However they both would represent a very different tone than Ahamadinejad, for example Rasfanjani has publicaly shaken the hands of an Israeli president (at the popes funeral) and in the imediate aftermath of 911 was trying to push his "dialogue of the civilisations" idea. They would seek an acomadation with Israel, but I very strongly doubt that would include any deal on Israeli settlement on the occupied territories.
An acomadation between the US and Iran would be a very good thing for both, they both have strong interests in a stable Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The only truly unacceptable part of US policy is its support for the Wahabists in Saudi, but the Persians have been living with them for centuaries and can quiet happily get by now that Iraq is a Shia nation.
It will be intersting to see which way this swings but I cant quite see Ahamadinejad falling from power. It is possible but I just dont see it atm. A big massicare of protester though would almost certainly see him out of the job.