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THE International Monetary Fund Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: World auto fleet to quadruple by 2050 says IMF

Unread postby hillsidedigger » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 08:22:25

No way.
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Re: World auto fleet to quadruple by 2050 says IMF

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 18:32:37

If every male in Chindia attained a car this would come true, but where would the fuel come from?
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: World auto fleet to quadruple by 2050 says IMF

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Sat 06 Jun 2009, 16:09:42

The world could not sustain this unless the cars were rarely driven(say, once a week for recreational purposes).

The world's governments will support using every last resource if it will enlarge their coffers, especially in the form of an expensive internal combustion engine. If there were 3 billion cars on this planet used regularly, the traffic and the amount of real estate required to sustain it would be a nightmare to contend with.
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Re: World auto fleet to quadruple by 2050 says IMF

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 13 Jun 2009, 11:32:49

Tanada wrote:If every male in Chindia attained a car this would come true, but where would the fuel come from?

Not to mention, the resources to make the car. Guess, just like the term, 'marriage,' we should expect to see terms for automobile/vehicle/car redefined.
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Re: World auto fleet to quadruple by 2050 says IMF

Unread postby Mike Morin » Sat 13 Jun 2009, 18:23:26

Ayoob wrote:link
GM’s demise should not be read as a harbinger of doom for the car industry. All around the world people want wheels: a car tends to be the first big purchase a family makes once its income rises much above $5,000 a year, in purchasing-power terms. At the same time as people in developing countries are getting richer, more efficient factories and better designs are making cars more affordable. That is why the IMF forecasts that the world will have nearly 3 billion cars in 2050, compared with around 700m cars today. In the next five or six years the Chinese will overtake the Americans in terms of annual car sales: in 40 years’ time the Chinese will have almost as many cars as exist in the whole of the world now. Indeed, GM’s own experience abroad shows the promise of emerging markets. Brazil has long been a source of profits, and GM has a leading position in China.

Well, there goes the IMF's credibility for me.


That works out perfectly, we'll have a peak in gasoline demand just about the time we are reaching bone dry in the supply of crude oil.

Wait a minute, I think that there's something faulty with the logic here...


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Re: World auto fleet to quadruple by 2050 says IMF

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 13 Jun 2009, 20:46:06

Tanada wrote:If every male in Chindia attained a car this would come true, but where would the fuel come from?


360 mb/d?

1183.17 tcf?

2000 new LWRs? Continents covered in PVs and wind turbines?

IMF, what wusses. Stuart Staniford sez Four Billion Cars in 2050.
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IMF Issues US $283B in New SDRs to World

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 19:50:16

Yes, the International Monetary Fund can and just did print up a huge amount of new money, just like the Federal Reserve has been doing for almost two years.

Yes, this will add to worldwide inflation.

No, I am not an expert of all aspects of the IMF and SDRs, so I might not be able to answer all your questions. [The currency value of the SDR is determined by summing the values in U.S. dollars, based on market exchange rates, of a basket of major currencies (the U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, and pound sterling). The SDR currency value is calculated daily and the valuation basket is reviewed and adjusted every five years.]

However I do view this as inflationary for the world in general, since many poor countires will now have additonal foreign exchange reserves to spend as they pelase, and this will probably contribute to the long term decline in the value of the US dollar (as dollars, a key 40% proportion of SDRs value, are sold for imports countries want).


IMF Injecting $283 Billion in SDRs into Global Economy, Boosting Reserves

August 28, 2009
• SDR allocations to supplement IMF members' foreign exchange reserves
• Outstanding stock of SDRs to increase nearly ten-fold
• Low-income countries to benefit significantly
With much of the world still mired in recession, the IMF took action to bolster its members’ reserves through an allocation of SDRs, or Special Drawing Rights.
The allocation, equivalent to $250 billion, was made on August 28 and will be followed by an additional, albeit much smaller, allocation of $33 billion on September 9. With the two allocations totaling roughly $283 billion, the outstanding stock of SDRs would increase nearly ten-fold to total about $316 billion.


http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sur ... 82809A.htm

IMF Pumps $250 Billion Into Global Foreign-Currency Reserves
By Sandrine Rastello
Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said it today pumped about $250 billion into foreign-exchange reserves worldwide, acting on an April call from leaders of the Group of 20 nations to boost global liquidity.
Countries will be able to convert the money, to come from so-called Special Drawing Rights, into hard currencies through “voluntary trading arrangements” with other members, the IMF said on its Web site today. The SDRs are the institution’s unit of account based on a basket of currencies.
The allocation, approved by the IMF’s board of governors earlier this month, will not increase the fund’s pool of money available for lending, the IMF said. “It will, however, provide members with an additional method to obtain hard currencies.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 7xC2NrTkkU
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: IMF Issues US $283B in New SDRs to World

Unread postby mattduke » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 21:07:09

They're preparing for the post dollar world.
Low-income countries to benefit significantly

haha
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IMF Ignored Crisis Warnings on Bernanke advice:

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 09 Feb 2011, 21:53:53

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been slammed by its own watchdog, the Independent Evaluation Office, for failing to predict the global financial crisis.

In a report, the watchdog says the IMF provided few clear warnings about the risk of the GFC, instead sending a message of continued optimism.

The office also claims the fund ignored a warning from its chief economist in 2005.

Raghuram Rajan warned new financial products, low interest rates, and less regulation could leave the world more exposed to financial sector turmoil.

"We should be prepared for the low probability but highly costly downturn," he cautioned.

University of New South Wales finance professor Fariborz Moshirian says the IMF relied too much on the data and analysis of the US authorities rather than its own economists.

"They followed Ben Bernanke's line of argument rather than their own advisers," he said.

The report says the IMF endorsed policies and financial practices that were seen as fostering rapid innovation and growth.

Professor Moshirian says such claims offer a fair assessment of the IMF's activities.

"The whole policy of IMF prior to the global financial crisis was to liberalise the market, particularly in emerging economies," he said.

"And so they couldn't offer any prescription which was contrary to what they advised to their members in the past."

IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn has welcomed the report and says he broadly endorses the findings.

"Like any other organisation, the IMF has learnt its lesson and now they are going to operate in such a way that they can provide early warning to national authorities," Professor Moshirian said.

He says the IMF has to rely on national regulators to provide it with adequate and accurate data.

"What they do with the data that they obtain is also an important issue," he said.


The question remains; WHY?

Obviously risk analysis was completely out the window. How these guys can claim any kind of ignorance is beyond me. I can clearly remember serious warnings going back to the late 90's. The tech bubble was supposed to be an economic miracle. Of course it didn't quite turn out that way.

How the IMF treats oil data I have no clue. On oil factors alone the global economy was and is in deep doo doo. I guess this is what happens when an organisation with such huge responsibility is also set up to spin an agenda.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011 ... ion=justin
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IMF Wants Alternate to U.S.$

Unread postby 49th Parallel » Thu 10 Feb 2011, 20:04:52

Came across this article this evening:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The International Monetary Fund issued a report Thursday on a possible replacement for the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The IMF said Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, could help stabilize the global financial system.


Yes, it has been rumoured for years but to see it making news again, especially on CNN, makes an impact.

The goal is to have a reserve asset for central banks that better reflects the global economy since the dollar is vulnerable to swings in the domestic economy and changes in U.S. policy.


So, what the end result should be is to avoid spikes in the prices of crude. More stability in pricing means more continuous use. How will this affect oil supply? Will it hasten the end of this plateau? Is the petrodollar losing ground?

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IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 08 Apr 2011, 04:42:21

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/ ... 9720110407

WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Thursday warned that the global economy was entering a period of scarcer oil that could drive prices up rapidly.

With no end in sight to unrest in the oil-producing Middle East, oil prices climbed above $120 a barrel this week for the first time since 2008. Brent crude LCOc1, a global benchmark oil contract, rose almost $8 a barrel over the past five days to $122.30 on Wednesday. [ID:nN06206555]

The IMF's research comes as a new Reuters poll of 32 major oil traders predicted on Wednesday that oil prices will soar above $130 a barrel by late 2011.
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Last edited by Ferretlover on Mon 18 Jul 2011, 14:50:34, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged thread.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby dukey » Fri 08 Apr 2011, 06:57:58

You can thank the American war machine for starting another war in yet another oil rich country.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 08 Apr 2011, 07:41:00

Brent is fast approaching $125 now.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby KevO » Fri 08 Apr 2011, 13:15:35

dolanbaker wrote:Brent is fast approaching $125 now.


past $126 as Syria starts to kick off proper
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby diemos » Fri 08 Apr 2011, 13:26:40

Weird. You might almost think that there wasn't quite enough to go around. :roll:
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby kmann » Sat 09 Apr 2011, 14:51:16

$142 was unjustified in '08 (as the subsequent crash to $38 showed) and $130 now is also unjustified, as the coming crash will also show.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby diemos » Sat 09 Apr 2011, 15:09:29

kmann wrote:$142 was unjustified in '08 (as the subsequent crash to $38 showed) and $130 now is also unjustified, as the coming crash will also show.


$142 was unsustainable in '08 (as the subsequent crash to $38 showed) and $130 now is also unsustainable, as the coming crash will also show. TFTFY.

What's happening is exactly what was predicted to happen. Economic activity tries to expand past the amount of oil available to sustain it. The price of oil goes up. The economy contracts. The price oil goes down.

This pattern will be repeated again and again on our way to the post petroleum economy. After every cycle we will be using less and less oil per capita. Those that don't understand will assume that reduced oil consumption is a side effect of recession and that the low price is an indication that there is "plenty" of oil. The truth being that recession is the mechanism by which the free market brings demand into alignment with available supply as it decreases.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le ... PUPUS2&f=W

The observant will note that the current price spike is happening at a lower level of consumption than the last one.

Welcome to the post-peak world. Please keep your arms and legs in the vehicle at all times.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby kmann » Sat 09 Apr 2011, 15:19:27

Economic activity tries to expand past the amount of oil available to sustain it. The price of oil goes up. The economy contracts. The price oil goes down.

To some degree that's true. However the effect is significantly amplified by speculation. $142 to $38 range within a six month period cannot be justified by supply and demand alone.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 09 Apr 2011, 15:27:00

kmann wrote:
Economic activity tries to expand past the amount of oil available to sustain it. The price of oil goes up. The economy contracts. The price oil goes down.

To some degree that's true. However the effect is significantly amplified by speculation. $142 to $38 range within a six month period cannot be justified by supply and demand alone.


It's impossible to isolate the "speculation" element as a driving force in crude oil futures. And to some extent, it's pointless to do so given that speculation focuses on future supply shortages and future demand increases.
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Re: IMF oil price shock warning! >130$/b

Unread postby diemos » Sat 09 Apr 2011, 15:33:31

kmann wrote:$142 to $38 range within a six month period cannot be justified by supply and demand alone.


Yes it can. Oil has a highly inelastic demand curve since it underlies all economic activity and there are no short-term substitutes. The minute that demand is one barrel per day over supply the bidding begins. Once the demand falls below supply the price collapses to the marginal cost of production.
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