[meemoe_uk]

The EIA stats might be toast, but peakers and doomers aren't free to have hysterics over peakoilDoomIsNow myths yet.
It's been up for 3 weeks, yet it seems none of the peakOilers could care less. It's the lastest oil report from IEA. Oh no! you doomers better run and hide, cos you know whats coming...

IEA : World sets all time highest oil supply record by quarter in 1st quarter of 2011
The quaterly record has gone... again. The 2010-2030 oil flood continues to strengthen.

page 58
World supply for 1st quarter 2011 : 88.7Mpbd
Previous world record ( 4th Quarter 2010 ) : 88.2Mbpd

This despite the loss of libyan supply.
Libya oil :
January 2011 : 1.58 Mbpd
March 2011 : 0.45Mbpd

So on top of the new record been set, we've got nearly another 1Mpbd in the bank, waiting for the Libyan war to end.

Plenty of oil for decades to come i say!

[rangerone314]

So, when do we hit 90, and I mean 90 million bbl, not $90/bbl.

And when will oil go down in price? When we have a double dip recession, and then another, then another.

I've so overjoyed we haven't reached "peak oil" yet.

[meemoe_uk]

>So, when do we hit 90, and I mean 90 million bbl, not $90/bbl.
I'd guess late 2012, but I reserve 2013 as well, due to inherent uncertainty in the oil game.

>And when will oil go down in price? When we have a double dip recession, and then another, then another.
If I was confident of predicting, I'd be throwing my chips in the stock market\casino. But the prices are designed to stop everyone from guessing right. Like this summer, you'd expect prices to keep going up, because that's what they usually do in the summer. But I wouldn't count on it to invest 'long' in the futures market.

I guess prices will continue to fly up and down for a few years yet with new record high prices.
Before 2020, the prices will collapse long term, and the very cheap 1980-1990s part of the cycle will revolve back round.

[Keith_McClary]

I bet there are many wells near the end of life that would have been shut down at $30 but are kept going at current prices. If the price crashes, these will be shut down permanently and will have to be replaced with new drilling in the next price spike.

[AirlinePilot]

All this corny orgasming is just a bit premature IMHO. Your going to be taking all the Libyan oil off the charts shortly.

[meemoe_uk]

>I bet there are many wells near the end of life that would have been shut down at $30 but are kept going at current prices. If the price crashes, these will be shut down permanently and will have to be replaced with new drilling in the next price spike.

The oil game doesn't work strictly by prices like you suggest. Not by a long way.
When the prices crash long term, all the small companies starve ( can't make profit ), and are bought up by the big companies ( e.g. BP, Standard oil ), who have practically infinite capital. The price is crashed on purpose to do this.


>All this corny orgasming is just a bit premature IMHO. Your going to be taking all the Libyan oil off the charts shortly.
I'll make the same point again. Libyian oil was already mostly off the chart. But there was still a record high last quarter.
If you're pinning your hopes of an all time peak on the Libyan temporal shut down, it's the doomer orgasm that will be short lived, if it existant at all. Hasn't the recent history of the middle east oil taught you a thing? We've just gone thru simular shut downs of several major middle east producers. And what happened? They're all bouncing back, healthier than before, after the majors fixed up the old ones and installed a load of new wells. Exactly the same thing will happen in Libya.

[vision-master]

guess prices will continue to fly up and down for a few years yet with new record high prices.
Before 2020, the prices will collapse long term, and the very cheap 1980-1990s part of the cycle will revolve back round.

Yeah, once the economy is completely destroyed and world oil output is at 55,000,000 barrels a day. So, does this mean the USA get's it's current 20 million per day and the rest of the World lives on the rest (35 million per day)?

[meemoe_uk]

>Yeah, once the economy is completely destroyed and world oil output is at 55,000,000 barrels a day. So, does this mean the USA get's it's current 20 million per day and the rest of the World lives on the rest (35 million per day)?
Oh dear VM. I had you as one of the level headed crowd. So you think the economy is on the verge of destroying itself or some tat along simular doomer rhetoric? Effective before 2020? What subtlty am I missing? Why are we all going to be sucked into a blackhole of despair?
My job's nowhere near the essential economy, but for me, business is booming.

Economic bubbles have popped for centuries.
Commodity prices gone wildly up and down for centuries.
Unrest in poor countries for centuries.
Voices have been saying doom just round the corner for centuries.

So today just like any other day.
How does the recent all time record of oil supply fit into your vision of doom? I thought peakers associated lack of oil with doom, not an abundance of it.

[AirlinePilot]

Libyian oil was already mostly off the chart.

Lets see what the next data set says about global production AFTER March of this year.

According to many expats(who bailed during the early days of the revolution)the Libyan oil industry may not be back for YEARS. I'll trust their assessment before I even consider yours.

[meemoe_uk]

>According to many expats(who bailed during the early days of the revolution)the Libyan oil industry may not be back for YEARS. I'll trust their assessment before I even consider yours.
Well since my assessment is the same as theirs, that OK. It took 8 years for Iraqi oil to recover. Libya may be the same.
And while my ego might like to take the credit, it's not my exclusive unique assessment that world oil has set new records while Libyan supply has collapsed.

It's the IEA's assessment.
I'm just passing it on.

[dorlomin]

If you're pinning your hopes of an all time peak on the Libyan temporal shut down,

Our enthusiastic little friend seems to have Gadaffi confused withDr Who.

[AirlinePilot]

Libyan supply is light sweet crude, not Condensates or tar sands etc. Failing to understand this while looking at "all liquids" is about the dumbest thing I see cornies continually focus on.

FAIL.

[oldcutlas]

Does anyone really believe the "official" reports about oil production and estimated reserves.. I believe what the price of a gallon of gas tells me about supply and demand. the doubling of the price in less than a year while the "official" story says that production is at record levels???

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's a chicken!! (at least if the "official" duck agency says it's a chicken.)

[meemoe_uk]

>Libyan supply is light sweet crude, not Condensates or tar sands etc. Failing to understand this while looking at "all liquids" is about the dumbest thing I see cornies continually focus on.

What you see, and what is actually happening are 2 very dfiferent thing ALP.
I haven't anywhere read a corny who isn't aware of the difference in quality of Libyan LSC vs tar sands.

And I hope you are aware this a PeakOil site, not exclusively a 'peak very cheap and easy to extract light sweet crude' site. Our main focus is spose to be on peak of all types of mineral oil combined.

So what are you saying anyway? We all starve to death next week because now we can't get as much Libyan light sweet crude for the next year or two?

[dorlomin]

Libyan supply is light sweet crude, not Condensates or tar sands etc. Failing to understand this while looking at "all liquids" is about the dumbest thing I see cornies continually focus on.

FAIL.

Net energy vs gross volume of energy source.

Like thinking you can get the same amount of energy from 100 grams of salad as 100 grams of chocolate when packing for a 20 day camping trip.

[AirlinePilot]

So what are you saying anyway? We all starve to death next week because now we can't get as much Libyan light sweet crude for the next year or two?

Its really not worth my time to type a response since you seem incapable of grasping a simplistic concept such as the ability to understand what the difference is between All liquids production and CRUDE production. On top of that its strange you even ask that question in light of most of the discussion which has gone on at this site for the last 4-5 years.

It is a FAILURE of fairly large proportion to continually point at All liquids and talk about peak. If you dont understand that and why the term All liquids came into fashion several few years ago, then its pointless to have a discussion since your lack of understanding simply negates it.

I will point out how again you have painted a completely fabricated picture that im some sort of "doomer". Its simply YOUR opinion and a bad assumption that such is the case. My continued references to these oversights merely points out that one need be careful in jumping on any bandwagons yet. The jury is not out, but it has become quite evident to me that global oil production is not in a "healthy" state. It appears there are some very suspect things going on with respect to claimed reserves. The fact that significant rising crude prices have NOT resulted in any real growth would point an objective individual to question the near term future of said production and the ability for it to grow to meet future demand.

If you classify that as being a Doomer than I'd say you need to reassess your definitions here.

[vtsnowedin]

What is more important then world crude oil production is the total that is actually exported onto the world market. After all it matters not to anyone if Egypt or any other country produces any oil if it uses it all up domestically. Picking through what IEA stats I can get for free I see that the top fifteen oil exporters exported 39.5 mbd in 2004 and they are now down to 31.1mbd which is a five percent per year decline. Total world exports of crude are down to 40 mbd. That is the number that is going to cause the rub for any country that imports significant amounts of crude oil.
Note: I had to do some conversions to get those two sets of data to line up so they may not be exact. Perhaps someone with full access to IEA data will have the exact numbers at their finger tips will correct me if I,m more then a bit off. Feel free

[meemoe_uk]

>you seem incapable of grasping a simplistic concept such as the ability to understand what the difference is between All liquids production and CRUDE production.
How do you reconcile this with my Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:51 am post in the it's official new monthly world crude oil production thread, where I make a clean distinction between all liquids and crude?
If you feel so strongly that crude is everything and all liquids is meaningless wrt peakoil, shouldn't you have made some reply to that post, instead of ignoring it completely?

>It is a FAILURE of fairly large proportion to continually point at All liquids and talk about peak.
I don't continually point at All liquids, I point at crude as well (see above link ). You ignore this because it is inconvenient to your doom fantasies.

>I will point out how again you have painted a completely fabricated picture that im some sort of "doomer"
Mindlessly opposing cornys, ignoring EIA and IEA data when it doesn't support you assertions, dismissing All liquids, even thought All liquids is >90% crude therefore a good approximation to crude, and constantly saying world oil supply looks bleak even as the most crucial measures of world oil supply hit record highs are together solid ground for labeling you a doomer. No fabrication needed.

You can get a better approx to world crude production from the IEA data than it's World all liquids number. For some reason IEA doesn't explict crude, but it does explicit world bio, and OPEC NGLs. The remainder is world crude and non OPEC NGLs.
Whose betting ALP, whose got plenty of time to criticize me, somehow won't have time to calculate this crude proxy from the IEA data, even though crude supply is spose to be central to his interests? You'll also need to work out if the lastest data ( 1st quarter 2011 ) is an all time record. You need me to do it ALP? I'll do it for you if you ask nicely.

>it has become quite evident to me that global oil production is not in a "healthy" state.
All liquids is at an all time peak, the EIA's parting shot was world crude was at an all time peak last look (Jan 2011), and I bet the IEA proxy to crude ( >95% crude ) for 1st Quarter 2011, is very near all time peak, if not the all time peak. World oil supply is therefore healthier now then ever.

[AirlinePilot]

World oil supply is therefore healthier now then ever.

And my point...and everyone elses here who seems to understand the problem...would be so what? If huge increases in price have NOT resulted in huge increases in production (AND THEY HAVEN"T!)...how does the world slake its projected demand with anemic growth in global oil production?

How does a normally linear economic supply/price model fail so easily? In light of relentless growth in the price of such a commodity we do not see a commensurate growth in the PRODUCTION of that commodity. Claiming new highs within the statistical noise is idiotic when you step back and look at the data from a bit higher up.

Your continued ignorance of the fact that statistically we are on a plateau is surprising. Constant focus on such tiny increases in production is causing you to lose the forest for the trees.