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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby dsula » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 10:07:50

meemoe_uk wrote:[
>Ah, the standard corny argument. Past = this, therfore future also = this.

It's called scientific method.
Ah the standard POisNow method. Some aspect of Past = always this, therfore immediate future of this aspect = different
What a great method peakoilers have used for the last 100 years.
Now what was the defintion of having the same start everytime, getting the same result everytime, but expecting a different result everytime?
Madness. How fitting.

You're right. The scientific method, past = future, I forgot. In the past there were famines and die-offs, and empires collapsing and war and ...., but this time not, because we're going straight to beautiful corny-land (singularity included).
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 10:17:36

Oil is extremely cheap. Until costs go above $10000 a barrel, we don't need to worry about cost.
$66 a litre hey (plus taxes) . Using 8 litres to get to work and back, doesnt quite make work a viable option.

Until around $10000 a barrel in 2010 dollars, there's no reason why your income can't rise to meet the increase cost of energy costs.

and btw,

Men and animals worked fine for millions of years when oil was $infinity a barrel, and I never heard of any of them complain about the price of oil getting in the way of the absolutely necessary 30 mile drive to work.
It's only in a tiny blink of time that the absurdity of driving 30 miles to work everday is reckoned to be normal. American car manufacturers have bent your view of reality.
So you'll have to work closer to home, just like most people and animals that live today or that have ever lived througout all 3.5 billion years of life history. Most people prefer it. But there's always a few who like driving for the sake of driving. Welcome to reality... oh what a drag.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 10:19:25

dsula wrote:
ALL previous oil crisis were rooted in industrial\economic\war upheaval

Ah, the standard corny argument. Past = this, therfore future also = this.


Versus the standard Doomer argument...all those other times we had a peak oil and it wasn't a big deal, but this time, THIS time, it will be different?
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Adelaidewonderer » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 10:44:26

meemoe_uk wrote:Oil is extremely cheap. Until costs go above $10000 a barrel, we don't need to worry about cost.
$66 a litre hey (plus taxes) . Using 8 litres to get to work and back, doesnt quite make work a viable option.

Until around $10000 a barrel in 2010 dollars, there's no reason why your income can't rise to meet the increase cost of energy costs.

and btw,

Men and animals worked fine for millions of years when oil was $infinity a barrel, and I never heard of any of them complain about the price of oil getting in the way of the absolutely necessary 30 mile drive to work.
It's only in a tiny blink of time that the absurdity of driving 30 miles to work everday is reckoned to be normal. American car manufacturers have bent your view of reality.
So you'll have to work closer to home, just like most people and animals that live today or that have ever lived througout all 3.5 billion years of life history. Most people prefer it. But there's always a few who like driving for the sake of driving. Welcome to reality... oh what a drag.


Maybe a thousand years ago, if I wanted something to eat, I could have gone and hunted a kangaroo or something, and as I would have been sharing australia with only 100,000 other people, there would have been plenty. Without oil, my only options for meat, would be the next door neighbour, and i have to hope that the other 100 people who live in a 100 metre radius of me wont get to him sooner.

No one doubts that a 1000 years ago, it would have been possible to live off your immediate surroundings, but its simply not possible now. Its not a drag, its just an unrealistic thing to think, especially coming from someone whose computer travelled thousands of kilometres, whose fridge and TV probably come from another country, and all of which uses energy that the UK itself cant supply.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 10:55:19

moreover the above ground issues you highlight will more than likely compound to keep it on this plateau irrespective of the geology because a plateau centric cartel could only be broken by a massive influx of cheap oil..

What a confusing mess of figures you weave mididoctors. I've picked this bit out because it's the oddest.
One reason the anglo-american cartel rock the price up and down to shake off competition. When the price is up, all oil companys inside and outside the cartel stand to make lots of money. When it's down, only the cartel can survive the lack of income.
In a couple of years, once the anglo-american majors have fully settled into the middle east, they will want to flood the market with oil, and bring the cost of a barrel way down.
This will kill off all the non-cartel independant energy companys that have sprouted up all over the world in the sunlight of high oil prices.

One of the ideas at the mo is to create an false bottom in the price, e.g. $80, with plenty speculation for higher prices, then crash the price as suddenly as possible. This way energy companys are more likely to be caught with their pants down strung out on loans and business plans that rely on long term high oil prices.
I estimate about 2014-15 a price crash. The price will be low. Not more than $30 a barrel, and it will stay down. The worlds latest crop of free energy enterprise, created by the recent high oil prices, will be forced to hand over their companys to the cartel banks.
So the anglo-american cartel will have solid control over the vast majority of the world's oil supply.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby mididoctors » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 11:11:35

meemoe_uk wrote:
moreover the above ground issues you highlight will more than likely compound to keep it on this plateau irrespective of the geology because a plateau centric cartel could only be broken by a massive influx of cheap oil..

What a confusing mess of figures you weave mididoctors. I've picked this bit out because it's the oddest.
One reason the anglo-american cartel rock the price up and down to shake off competition. When the price is up, all oil companys inside and outside the cartel stand to make lots of money. When it's down, only the cartel can survive the lack of income.
In a couple of years, once the anglo-american majors have fully settled into the middle east, they will want to flood the market with oil, and bring the cost of a barrel way down.
This will kill off all the non-cartel independant energy companys that have sprouted up all over the world in the sunlight of high oil prices.

One of the ideas at the mo is to create an false bottom in the price, e.g. $80, with plenty speculation for higher prices, then crash the price as suddenly as possible. This way energy companys are more likely to be caught with their pants down strung out on loans and business plans that rely on long term high oil prices.
I estimate about 2014-15 a price crash. The price will be low. Not more than $30 a barrel, and it will stay down. The worlds latest crop of free energy enterprise, created by the recent high oil prices, will be forced to hand over their companys to the cartel banks.
So the anglo-american cartel will have solid control over the vast majority of the world's oil supply.


doesn't matter if its false.. infact I think all prices are in a way false.. my point is that production will be capped by cartel behaviour irrespective of actual production capacity...

the above ground factors at any one instant in time can only act to keep the oil in the ground and the more that are introduced the more oil stays untapped and shut in?

a plea to above ground factors by yourself is an admission that production is at the margins because only then can those who ordinarily have a small influence can now effect price greatly.

moreover.....and this is important the price will not of itself bear a direct correlation to the amount of oil coming out of the ground

we know this to be true... your argument is based on this premise
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 11:13:28

>Maybe a thousand years ago, if I wanted something to eat, I could have gone and hunted a kangaroo or something,
Looks like your screwed then. Society today is built entirely on the idea that some commuters in the 1st world travel 30 miles to work every day. If ever you do so much as a take a sleeping bag to work, let alone move into a home near work, society would collapse, and you will die.
Best burn that sleeping bag now, just in case. Don't want any nasty accidents like taking it to work.
We're counting on you. Please, burn it.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 11:14:30

meemoe_uk wrote:Men and animals worked fine for millions of years when oil was $infinity a barrel, and I never heard of any of them complain about the price of oil getting in the way of the absolutely necessary 30 mile drive to work.
It's only in a tiny blink of time that the absurdity of driving 30 miles to work everday is reckoned to be normal. American car manufacturers have bent your view of reality.
So you'll have to work closer to home, just like most people and animals that live today or that have ever lived througout all 3.5 billion years of life history. Most people prefer it. But there's always a few who like driving for the sake of driving. Welcome to reality... oh what a drag.


This is one of the most absurd simplifications of the transition out of the oil age that I've ever read. it's even worse than "the stone age didn't end for a lack of stones."

Do you know anything about how dependent we are on oil, and by dependent, I mean Chevron's phrase "our lives depend on oil", a phrase that is equally as offensive as it is accurate? You make it sound like it's nothing but the end of happy motoring, like we'll hit some steady-state of walkable cities and 20 billion people.

It ain't gonna be like that, and it's not because I'm desperately clinging to BAU that I'm somehow overly alarmed. I'm concerned about the personal survival of kith and kin, as are most here. Whether humanity in some remnant might survive post oil (and climate change, which I know you don't even believe) is not the issue. It's the bodycount the transition will incur that we're worried about, and if not that, then the ever degrading quality of life we'll lead on the downslope which I suspect will far exceed giving up the Lincoln Navigator and the 30 mile commute.

Your rhetoric has become nothing more than John Denver at Peakoildebunked warmed over.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 11:31:56

doesn't matter if its false.. infact I think all prices are in a way false.. my point is that production will be capped by cartel behaviour irrespective of actual production capacity...

oh ok. Well I agree with that.

the above ground factors at any one instant in time can only act to keep the oil in the ground and the more that are introduced the more oil stays untapped and shut in?

I think 'above ground' factors can work to get oil out the ground aswell.

a plea to above ground factors by yourself is an admission that production is at the margins because only then can those who ordinarily have a small influence can now effect price greatly

It would be. But I'm not making a plea.

moreover.....and this is important the price will not of itself bear a direct correlation to the amount of oil coming out of the ground

That's right.The cartel control the price.

we know this to be true... your argument is based on this premise

Good. I like to base my arguements on premises we can all agree on.
So me and you are agreed then. No peak oil now right?

This is one of the most absurd simplifications of the transition out of the oil age that I've ever read.

If your think what I posted was spose to be the complete story of the human race's transition out of the oil age, then I think the same about your brain.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby mididoctors » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 12:17:25

meemoe_uk wrote:Good. I like to base my arguements on premises we can all agree on.
So me and you are agreed then. No peak oil now right?

.


we are never going to see true potential peak production or anywhere near it... which is a good thing IMOI

instead we are going to edge as close as this plateau + or - a bit regulated by above ground forces

above ground factors "in the instant" can not make more oil come out of the ground

above ground factors may influence investment in production capacity in the future...

as for peak now?

functionally this is it..... because economic forces are colliding on a global scale with geology only it does not manifest itself as a sharp peak... the marginal gap between geological potential and economic forces are combining to produce a situation of "no growth/functionally no growth"

instead cartel feedbacks (and other stuff) act like a "virtual pipeline" of a fixed diameter limiting market supply.. think Prudoe bay production profile analogy where the alaskan pipeline is replaced by cartel feedbacks

and its a good thing (relatively speaking)

no one is going to create massive new supply to upset the status quo


everyone is settling into a new day......
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 13:47:46

meemoe_uk wrote:Oil is extremely cheap. Until costs go above $10000 a barrel, we don't need to worry about cost.
$66 a litre hey (plus taxes) . Using 8 litres to get to work and back, doesnt quite make work a viable option.

Until around $10000 a barrel in 2010 dollars, there's no reason why your income can't rise to meet the increase cost of energy costs.

I see you have adopted the meme "high prices don´t matter" like Xeno/Shorty. It must be a corny fashion I suppose. Well, slowly but steadily prices are going up, I hope you are around here when oil reaches again 150ish. So we can all see how little it matters to the economy.
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw

You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 14:11:07

eXpat wrote:So we can all see how little it matters to the economy.



"The economy" will be fine. Regular folks and especially poor folks will be screwed. But they should just get a better job and stop being poor. :|
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 15:10:29

Ludi wrote:
eXpat wrote:So we can all see how little it matters to the economy.



"The economy" will be fine. Regular folks and especially poor folks will be screwed. But they should just get a better job and stop being poor. :|


No...they should stop buying fast food, Wild Turkey and cigarettes and spend their money on increased gasoline costs instead, if they REALLY have to keep burning the silly stuff...at least until the used EV's and PHEV's and such turn up in the used car market.

America NEEDS more expensive fuel, all this endless lolly gagging about how a few more bucks for oil matters is just ridiculous. We live in an economic system, changing the behavior of the group requires economic stimuli, if our so called leaders won't provide it we should demand it of them. If that won't work, personal action seems to be the next best alternative.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 15:19:00

Ludi wrote:"The economy" will be fine. Regular folks and especially poor folks will be screwed. But they should just get a better job and stop being poor. :|


Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 19:38:44

What a great method peakoilers have used for the last 100 years.
Now what was the defintion of having the same start everytime, getting the same result everytime, but expecting a different result everytime?
Madness. How fitting.


meemoe_uk :
Let's look at crude oil production according to the EIA web site
Image
That discovery curve I first posted in 2007 has a URR of 2800 billion barrels. The red production curve assumes a steady extraction rate from 2007 onward. See the GoogleDoc linked from http://TheOilConunDrum.com for the complete analysis.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 20:06:57

WebHubbleTelescope wrote:That discovery curve I first posted in 2007 has a URR of 2800 billion barrels.


Sounds like you need a better discovery curve.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 20:25:36

Xenophobe wrote:Sounds like you need a better discovery curve.


Sounds like you need to do some reading. It certainly isn't 10 trillion.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 21:18:50

WebHubbleTelescope wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Sounds like you need a better discovery curve.


Sounds like you need to do some reading. It certainly isn't 10 trillion.


Certainly someone who hasn't even taken the time to review the pertinent literature might claim such a thing. I understand, run of the mill JPT articles are pretty easy to miss when doing the literature search, right Web? Certainly haven't noticed it in your "Conundrum" ...you do know those references are supposed to be in alpha order, right? The peer review your work went through must have missed that little detail.

Anyway, while rummaging for the other reference you appear to have missed I bumped into this one:

Deming, D., 2001, Oil: Are We Running Out?, Petroleum Provinces of the 21st Century, AAPG Memoir 74, p.45-55 (note to trendologists....you did take into account the obvious effect visible in Figure 4, right? )

but page 55 contains the reference I was looking for. Meyer, R.F. and Schenk, C.F, 1985. Check it out, they've already got the first 6T covered and certainly didn't need more than the top couple hundred fields to do it...didn't notice that reference in the Conundrum either...you did say that SOMEONE checked this thing to make sure you didn't miss all the basics, didn't you? :shock:
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 21:54:49

WebHubbleTelescope wrote:Let's look at crude oil production according to the EIA web site
Image
That discovery curve I first posted in 2007 has a URR of 2800 billion barrels. The red production curve assumes a steady extraction rate from 2007 onward. See the GoogleDoc linked from http://TheOilConunDrum.com for the complete analysis.

Ah, we have a prediction. As Burns would say . . .

Image

The irony is, by comparing EIA data to his oil discovery model and, hence, his oil production model, he is 100% guaranteed to be wrong. Why? Because, as he told me a couple days ago (and here and here), he refuses to include oil sands, Bakken-esque shale oils and other unconventionals in his discovery model because, in his view, it's low-grade stuff which isn't up to snuff. Unfortunately for him, oil sands and Bakken-esque shale oils are becoming increasingly larger portions of world oil production, they will continue to grow - and - the EIA does include them in their C&C production figures. Over time, the volume beneath the curve of the EIA's production figure will increasingly deviate from the volume beneath his predicted discovery-production curves because he didn't want to include the stuff that didn't pass his sniff test. It will end up being a comparison of apples to oranges.

But actually that's OK with me - I'll be sure to bookmark this thread and visit it periodically in the future. This forum is so much fun! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 22:52:23

Xenophobe wrote:The peer review your work went through must have missed that little detail.


Peer review comments don't have to be heeded. If they are preposterous, they can be dismissed. Just like I mentioned abiotic oil as a footnote, it is completely subjective whether or not I acknowledge every outlandish claim made.

So you apparently want to believe that the URR/OOIP will increase greatly from the historical average of 0.35 or so. What does that give, 2800/0.35 = 8000 billion, right?

My book is about the subject of entropy as much as anything else. Engineers understand the limits of the Carnot cycle and the second law. At some point you will realize how disorder makes that difficult remaining 65% harder and harder to extract and process. This won't happen overnight either, so you will have to live with the flow rate limited process.
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