Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Adelaidewonderer » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 08:03:18

meemoe_uk wrote:>[i]>tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil
Because the industry is in a state of upheaval as the anglo american majors move into the middle east. This upheaval has been going on since 2001, it is nearly over. I estimate by 2014-15 things will settle down and the price of oil will drop substancially and stay down.



Please do share how you have come to this conclusion.
Adelaidewonderer
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon 31 Jan 2011, 23:29:49

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby dsula » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 08:41:58

Adelaidewonderer wrote:
meemoe_uk wrote:>[i]>tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil
Because the industry is in a state of upheaval as the anglo american majors move into the middle east. This upheaval has been going on since 2001, it is nearly over. I estimate by 2014-15 things will settle down and the price of oil will drop substancially and stay down.



Please do share how you have come to this conclusion.


Oh, that's easy, it's the standard corny argument. Yoday we pumped more oil than yesterday, therfore we will pump even more tomorrow.
User avatar
dsula
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 982
Joined: Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 10:12:15

Repeat after me...

UNDULATING PLATEAU

I never got suckered into the absolute dating of peak oil at 2005 that The Oil Drum "drummed" into us. I still see the trouble we will attribute to peak oil doom really getting going around the 2013-2015 time-period that the UK task force is talking about.
mos6507
 

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 12:39:24

Is Oil Output Peaking or Not? Either Way, Cheap Oil Is Gone for Good
As investors and as drivers, most of us have an interest in the price of oil, and what it's going to do next. But if you're having trouble figuring out whether global oil production is about to peak -- an occurrence that will inevitably be followed by a surge in oil prices -- you're not alone.

Supporters and critics of the theory of peak oil, which predicts when the maximum level of global oil production will be reached and the rate of its decline afterward, are about as far apart in their assumptions and conclusions as the Union and Confederacy were in early 1861.
...
Super-Giant Fields Are Draining Quickly

James Schlesinger, a secretary of energy during the Carter administration and a director of the CIA under President Nixon, suggested during a November 2010 speech at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas that the peak-oil debate is over.

Schlesinger points out that the world is excessively dependent on the giant, conventional oil fields discovered in the 1950s and 1960s, and production at the old super-giant fields like Burgan in Kuwait and Cantarell in Mexico started to decline sooner than forecast. Conventional fields in the key oil-producing regions of Alaska, the North Sea and Western Siberia are also in decline, he said.
While it is not yet "Twilight in the Desert," he said -- referring to the book by the late energy analyst Matthew Simmons, who calculated that Saudi and global oil production would peak this decade -- "we are well into the afternoon." Schlesinger added that "even the Ghawar oil field [the world's largest] is increasingly hard to sustain."

Also, despite a demand-driven price spike since 2004, oil production in 2010 was about the same as it was in 2004, Schlesinger said. Normally, such a large rise in prices would result in a large amount of additional oil produced. That didn't happen.

Finally, given a 4% to 6% production decline from aging conventional oil fields, the world will need the equivalent of five, new Saudi Arabias -- or about 50 million bpd from new oil sources -- to meet demand in 25 years.

For Schlesinger, it's clear: Peak oil is here, and the data he presents are enough to make you want to move closer to a mass-transit system.
...
Era of Cheap Oil Is Over

Depending on which analysis is correct, peak oil is either close at hand or several decades away. Either production from unconventional oil fields won't be able to ramp up fast enough to replace declining production at aging conventional oil fields or new drilling technology will increase output at many conventional fields and add vast new supplies from unconventional fields, pushing the day of reckoning further into the future.

Either way, barring another long global recession, one thing at least is certain: The era of cheap oil is over. It's highly unlikely that the U.S. will ever see $1.50-a-gallon gasoline again. Indeed, if global oil demand continues to climb, the current $3.11 per gallon average U.S. price for regular unleaded may look cheap in a few years.

That's enough to make many Americans consider more efficient vehicles and other ways to save on transportation costs, whether the peak is imminent or not.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/peak-oil-cheap-oil-is-gone-for-/19837213/
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw

You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
User avatar
eXpat
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3801
Joined: Thu 08 Jun 2006, 03:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 12:57:12

2008 would have trumped 2005 if not for the recession, to point out what should be obvious. The plateau between those three years is what's noteworthy, that's never happened before, production contracted sharply during recessions or after the fall of the USSR, plateauing for a while before bouncing back; but not during times of ostensible economic expansion.

IEA revises data all the time - Chinese demand passing 10 mb/d a few months ago for instance, they were "only" at 9.7 mb/d or so at first. They are piling on about 1.7 mb/d extra per year so better get cracking, OPEC.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby ian807 » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 15:00:08

I hate to be so bluntly obvious but....

In 1997, oil was $12 a barrel

In 2011, WTI Crude Oil is $86, and Brent Crude about $103. About a 9-fold increase in 14 years.

So, why is this? Magic? The great jewish-masonic-trilateral commission-alien-[insert favorite conspiracy theory here] conspiracy?

Or could it be as prosaic as supply and demand (i.e. We can't pump enough of the stuff to keep up with demand and we can't find more to pump in a time-frame that's going to matter)?

Because that's what peak oil means in our lifetime. Diminishing supply with lower energy return and much higher prices. We'll never "run out" of hydrocarbons, but in the end, most will remain in the ground, because there won't be any energy positive, profitable way to extract them.
User avatar
ian807
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 899
Joined: Mon 03 Nov 2008, 04:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 18:02:17

Hah, just calculated the largest YOY increases in total demand for all nations/continents/regions 1980-2009, the range of available EIA data. #1 is the entire World, #2 is Asia and Oceania. Nothing too surprising there. #3? China, in 2004. In fact all three of these monster gains took place in 2004. Now, that's a rather a striking fact, no? Have to put BP data to this test, as things were really hopping along in the late 60s and their numbers go back to 1965.

Top gains in my series:


Code: Select all
World      2774.86
Asia & Oceania      1197.76
China      859.37
North America      838.83
United States      697.64
Europe      402.93
Middle East      381.6
United Kingdom      294
Japan      282
Central & South America      264.18
Korea, South      264
Saudi Arabia      197.98
India      186.88
Brazil      158.33
Africa      152.79


North America and US both set their records in 2004, too. "You need to go out and shop!"
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Xenophobe » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 19:03:36

Adelaidewonderer wrote:Well its good to see that a 4% increase in supply, over the 5 year period, only caused a 100% increase in the price of crude over the 5 year period. All someone needs to explain to me , is tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil, when my income only increased by 20% in the 5 year period.


What are you talking about? We are only now getting back to the price of oil back during the Civil War, which in 2009 dollars was around $110 or so. They at least knew how to value something way back when, it is criminal that only now are we returning to a reasonable value. Don't like your wages? Get some other job, certainly peak oil, past, present, or future, has nothing to do with your talents related to employment, good or bad.
User avatar
Xenophobe
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1083
Joined: Fri 06 Aug 2010, 21:13:08

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Adelaidewonderer » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 21:51:34

Xenophobe wrote:
Adelaidewonderer wrote:Well its good to see that a 4% increase in supply, over the 5 year period, only caused a 100% increase in the price of crude over the 5 year period. All someone needs to explain to me , is tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil, when my income only increased by 20% in the 5 year period.


What are you talking about? We are only now getting back to the price of oil back during the Civil War, which in 2009 dollars was around $110 or so. They at least knew how to value something way back when, it is criminal that only now are we returning to a reasonable value. Don't like your wages? Get some other job, certainly peak oil, past, present, or future, has nothing to do with your talents related to employment, good or bad.


Not exactly sure where your coming from there xenophobe, buy I am sure I am gonna need lots of drugs just to meet you half way.

I have never related my talents to my wage. There are people where I work who have far better knowledge than myslef, who get paid alot less than me, there are people at my work who marvel at the invention of velcro, and it allows them to put shoes on each morning and come to work, who get paid more than me. My only need in life is to be in the top 49%, so at least i know more people are doing it tougher than me.

But you know what, no matter how talented any of these people are, they would all be unemployed tomorrow if oil stopped. In fact, at the peak of the oil price in 2008, the more educated ones within the company were the first ones to be laid off.
Adelaidewonderer
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon 31 Jan 2011, 23:29:49

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 22:27:19

I agree with Xeno.
and let's be clear, there is lower layer of peakoilers who don't seem to know the basic teachings of ther own peakoil leaders, never mind the skeptic arguments. They probably don't know who the 'peakoil is now' leaders were\are. Any peakers here know who Matt Simmons, Colin Campbell, Matt Savinar were\are?

Simmons : an economically sound price of barrel of oil is $4000. $100 is a bargain.


hate to be so bluntly obvious but....

In 1970, oil was $1 a barrel

In 1979, oil was $37 a barrel. About a 37-fold increase in 9 years.

So, why is this? Magic? The great jewish-masonic-trilateral commission-alien-[insert favorite conspiracy theory here] conspiracy?

Or could it be as prosaic as supply and demand (i.e. We can't pump enough of the stuff to keep up with demand and we can't find more to pump in a time-frame that's going to matter)?


Correct answer : Economic \ Industrial \ war upheaval

During the 1970s oil crisis, which was much worse than the current one, there were hordes of 'peakoil is now' types. They absolutely could not be told that the price rise was rooted in industrial upheaval, even though ALL previous oil crisis were rooted in industrial\economic\war upheaval and had nothing to do with being geologically induced. Oh no, the 1970s crisis WAS PEAK OIL for sure ( just like all prior crisis were peak oil for sure according to 'peak oil is now' types).

POer rules: All past oil crisis are due to economic\political\war upheaval
: The current oil crisis is always rooted in geological limit.
: There is no point looking at past oil crisis to indentify the crucial difference between a gelogically induced peak and a 'man-made artificial peak'
: why? because this time we just know, we really know...this...is...it!!!


What makes peakers so sure that they've got it right this time? What is the unique factual difference that distinguishs this oil crisis from previous ones?
What would a 2010 peak oiler say to a 1979 peaker or a 1920 peaker to show them that this peak is different?
Skeptics have looked, we really wanted to find the difference aswell. In this respect we're just like peakers. It's just that we're not satisfied with the we really know...this...is...it!!! method of knowing.
We used other ways to detect the difference. and this is what we found - There is no difference.

Now, just like the 1970s, there is every sign that the current oil price rise is due to industrial\ economic\ war upheaval. Do peakers these days even realise the anglo-americans oil majors began a collosal war and oil field seizure and development campaign in the middle east in 2001, costing trillions, and the campaign is still ongoing? It was nearly 10 years ago. Wouldn't suprise me if some of the newer peakers haven't a clue about this. The trillions of dollars needed to fund this campaign come from increase taxes, cost of living, and...energy costs of the masses.
Last edited by meemoe_uk on Thu 17 Feb 2011, 22:43:30, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
meemoe_uk
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 948
Joined: Tue 22 May 2007, 03:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Xenophobe » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 22:33:40

Adelaidewonderer wrote:Not exactly sure where your coming from there xenophobe, buy I am sure I am gonna need lots of drugs just to meet you half way.


You wouldn't be the only doper around here...don't feel bad about it....

Adelaidewonderer wrote:But you know what, no matter how talented any of these people are, they would all be unemployed tomorrow if oil stopped. In fact, at the peak of the oil price in 2008, the more educated ones within the company were the first ones to be laid off.


None of which matters in the least. So they got laid off in a recession? Bummer...happens to the best of us. Doesn't have diddly to do with peak oil of course, or the price FINALLY getting to where it needs to be so us silly humans will pay attention to its value.
User avatar
Xenophobe
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1083
Joined: Fri 06 Aug 2010, 21:13:08

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 22:39:00

meemoe_uk wrote:Now, just like the 1970s, there is every sign that the current oil price rise is due to industrial\ economic\ war upheaval. Do peakers these days even realise the anglo-americans oil majors began a collosal war and oil field seizure and development campaign in the middle east in 2001, costing trillions, and the campaign is still ongoing? It was nearly 10 years ago. Wouldn't suprise me if some of the newer peakers haven't a clue about this. The trillions of dollars needed to fund this campaign come from increase taxes, cost of living, and...energy costs of the masses.

But would this war and oil field seizure have happened if easily available oil was anywhere else within reach?
It is pretty apparent to me that the war was about oil. Why have a war if you can get more oil without one?
It looks like peak oil to me. And quacks like it too.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 23:05:22

But would this war and oil field seizure have happened if easily available oil was anywhere else within reach?
It is pretty apparent to me that the war was about oil. Why have a war if you can get more oil without one?
It looks like peak oil to me. And quacks like it too.


WW1 was about about oil, WW2 was about oil, a multitude of middle east skirmishs between arab-arab, or arab-western oil majors over the last hundred years were about oil, the US-soviet cold war was often pitted over oil, the 1990s gulf war was about oil, the 2001 invasion was about oil.
Books have been written that assert that the world has been in a constant war over oil since the 1880s.
Didn't you know this?

Why have a war if you can get more oil without one?
According to you, WWI was due to peak oil around 1912, because if they could get more oil without one, they wouldn't have been a war.
Peakers of other years wouldn't be impressed with your rational.
You : " Oh MY peak's the real one, because we have a war that seemed to be about oil "
Rest of peakers : " Well, so does MY peak "

Try again, find a difference.
User avatar
meemoe_uk
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 948
Joined: Tue 22 May 2007, 03:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 23:27:47

There are no "peak Oil rulers". There are only proponents on either side of the discussion. In any endeavor which invloves predictions some humans are going to get it wrong. The gist of what those of us who think PO will be a serious issue revolves solely around the work of others to be sure, but at the core, we see the numbers adding up to one conclusion. Peak is very near to now. Whether it be in the past few years or the next it really doesnt matter. Only time will tell.

There are many indications which point to this. We have had a fairly impressive price rise in crude during the last 10 years and specifically the last 5-6. During that time production has struggled along a statistically perfect plateau. Arguing one way or another and playing I told you so over a few hundred thousand barrels a day is downright childish. Its also not very scientific. There is and always has been a measurable disparity in production numbers from the different agencies so arguing about it is moot. Using it as an "I told you so" thesis is shortsighted at best. There is factual data to show that the major oilfields around the globe are at peak or in decline. KSA admits 4-6% and the charts available over at TOD concerning water levels are eye opening. Its become very evident that discovery is of mostly costly deep water oil. This is the most expensive oil we can exploit, both in energy used for extraction and cost. These discoveries will be long in coming with production and they will deplete rapidly as that is the present economic reality when it comes to DW oil. No matter what you believe there is very good reason to distrust several OPEC nations reserve estimates. Here again time will tell. Even in the face of global recession we continue to increase demand and where this new production to meet that demand will come from is very problematic. The IEA is telling you in their latest world oil overview that they do not know where a significant proportion of future demand requirements is going to come from. Its labeled as "yet to be discovered" and its significant. We need to find a whole lot more oil and very soon to make that prediction work. Realistically its not likely coming. Some of their more corny predictions are not coming to fruition either yet the cornies never seem to bring that up either.

Those here who believe new highs in production are coming...significantly above where we are now....really have nothing to base that on except blind faith. Basing some cornucopian belief on the fact that since we saw increases and peaks on the upslope doesn't quite work once you pass the FINAL peak, which is what all of the hoopla is about. Not about the logical fallacy of the "many peaks" argument. Time will tell and If Im a betting man, I think I'll stick with those Peak Oil leaders. They might have been a bit off on the timing, but I think they got the trends right. I'd say that cornies suffer more from a belief syndrome and a denial of overall trends.The rest of us slow crash folks try very hard not to believe anyone and go with the trends suggested by data. Failure to digest that data due to the belief or normalcy bias is what drives the differences we see here. We need the cornies to check us, but arguing with them is a fools errand.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4378
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 23:33:08

Claiming every war of the 20th century was about oil is historically inaccurate and naive. I suggest you read some history books or take some college courses on 20th century history.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4378
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 06:28:08

meemoe_uk wrote:it would send a good hard message out to the 'peak oil crisis is now' gang. Don't you think?
It would send a message but not a good hard one. The message would be that we don't know exactly when peak oil will be, or was, until many years after the event. Attempts to predict the timing (or to call a peak) are always likely to be wrong, since we can't see into the future. What does appear to be evident is that the cheap oil - conventional crude - is, at best, in a plateau stage and that should sound warnings to everyone. We won't see cheap oil again, except during bad recessions. Expect a lot of those.

TheDude wrote:2008 would have trumped 2005 if not for the recession

You may well be right but you can't be certain of that. All we have to go on is historical data. Remember, also, that conventional crude is the cheap stuff, the most profitable stuff. Why would oil companies cut back on that kind of crude, instead of the less profitable stuff, when the oil price fell? Some unconventional oil would have still been needed, since conventional couldn't supply demand on its own, but some, even much, unconventional oil would have been close to unprofitable as oil prices fell to its lows in 2008.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby dsula » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 08:06:01

meemoe_uk wrote:I agree with Xeno.
and let's be clear, there is lower layer of peakoilers who don't seem to know the basic teachings of ther own peakoil leaders,

peak oil doesn't need a leader, it's not an idea, not a vision. Unless of course you can show me that the earth is infinite.
ALL previous oil crisis were rooted in industrial\economic\war upheaval

Ah, the standard corny argument. Past = this, therfore future also = this.
User avatar
dsula
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 982
Joined: Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 09:31:37

>There are no "peak Oil rulers".

Reading your posts, it seems you think you're the PO ruler.
Just keep telling yourself that, maybe one day you'll believe it.
For the rest of us, we already know ther there no peakoil rulers.
And no where in my post did I say there were any peakoil 'rulers'.
Hurry and catch up will you?

There are only proponents on either side of the discussion.

Some are listened to more than the others. These are the leaders.

The gist of what those of us who think PO will be a serious issue revolves solely around the work of others to be sure,

by the way, skeptics and 'peak oil is now' types all agree PO is a serious issue.
but at the core, we see the numbers adding up to one conclusion. Peak is very near to now.

The IEA sees the numbers going up. At a pretty fast rate. 11mbpd increase in 10 years. Most peakers don't bother reading IEA or EIA reports, and they certainly don't compare them to prior years. They probably don't even know where to look to find the data.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/archiveresults ... full+issue
So the numbers don't say peak oil is now. The supply numbers can never say peak oil is near.
They can only say, with uncertainty, peak oil was 10 years ago. And todays numbers don't, they say we're hitting all time highs.

We have had a fairly impressive price rise in crude during the last 10 years and specifically the last 5-6.

Repeat the same 'reason' as everyone else, get the same response - There have been serveral impressive prices rises in history. None were due to peak oil. Look for a different indicator.

>During that time production has struggled along a statistically perfect plateau.

No, the IEA says it's going up fast. Look at the archive link I've given you. I spose I'm going to have to draw the graph for you, because you sure as hell aren't.
Also we've had price rises with falls in world supply before, and they weren't peak oil. Look for another indicator.

Arguing one way or another and playing I told you so over a few hundred thousand barrels a day is downright childish. Its also not very scientific.

Well stop doing it then if you think that.

There is and always has been a measurable disparity in production numbers from the different agencies so arguing about it is moot. Using it as an "I told you so" thesis is shortsighted at best.

Erm , where in my posts do I say the EIA data is inferior or better to the IEA data? Your just cooking this insinulation up.

There is factual data to show that the major oilfields around the globe are at peak or in decline.

I trust my industry insider friends who have worked and overseen the reactivation of old fields more than I trust a random peakoiler who presents no evidence.

KSA admits 4-6% and the charts available over at TOD concerning water levels are eye opening.

For 100 years there's been some chart, which if you read way too much into it, your gonna get 'peakoil is now'. They've been wrong for 100 years.
Find a different indicator.

Its become very evident that discovery is of mostly costly deep water oil.

Oil is extremely cheap. Until costs go above $10000 a barrel, we don't need to worry about cost. Since you're an airline pilot you can post the maths to show exactly why this is so.
Most discovery is reserve growth in existing oil fields by the way. We would peaked deceades ago if the reserves of saudi etc hadn't grown year on year every year for decades.

These discoveries will be long in coming with production and they will deplete rapidly as that is the present economic reality when it comes to DW oil.

Oilfinder has already listed plenty of new oil discoverys, with much more being found than our current demand. Installation of wells takes about 10-15 years max. The industry knows this.
Great, here's an airline pilot who has the future sight of god, who can see at a glance all the DW wells in the world will deplete quick. Anyone believe you God?

No matter what you believe there is very good reason to distrust several OPEC nations reserve estimates. Here again time will tell

Absolutely. The world over, for all history, reserve estimates have been too low. It's a safe bet to think current OPEC nations reserves are too low today.

Even in the face of global recession we continue to increase demand and where this new production to meet that demand will come from is very problematic.

It's already sorted for the next 20 years. The anglo american majors moved into the middle east 10 years ago. Huge quantitys of oil from this campaign will make a new bulk of the worlds supply for the next 20 years easy.

The IEA is telling you in their latest world oil overview that they do not know where a significant proportion of future demand requirements is going to come from.

I haven't read that. What I've read from oil authoritys is that it's all coverd for the next 20 years.

We need to find a whole lot more oil and very soon to make that prediction work. Realistically its not likely coming.

That's because it's already come. The 2001 middle east oil bonanza, plus loads of extremely cheap ( i.e. <$1000 a barrel oil ) listed in oilfinders >60 pages of oil discoverys.
Some of their more corny predictions are not coming to fruition either yet the cornies never seem to bring that up either.

What are these predictions? We predict increasing world oil supply. In 2010 we were right, the all time high vidicated our postion of 100% correctness over 100 years, vs the 0% correctness of the 'peak oil is now' gang.
We'd bring it up if we knew what you were taking about. Can you be specific about what this failed prediction was?

Those here who believe new highs in production are coming...significantly above where we are now....really have nothing to base that on except blind faith.

I've spoken to head oil engineers and insiders personally. They are confindent the production from the new fields of the 2001 middle east oil bonanza will cope with all the suppply demands the world can throw at it for many years. My faith is in them, not some group that have refused to look for indicators and have cried wolf for 100 years and been wrong everytime.

They might have been a bit off on the timing, but I think they got the trends right.

What by 100 years? Dont you ever look at the history of your cult? The 2005 peakers were off the mark 1999 peakers, who were off the mark 1995 peakers etc... all the way back to around 1910.
They got nothing right.

'd say that cornies suffer more from a belief syndrome and a denial of overall trends.

I'd say you do too. It's nonsense.
The trend has been up, and at a decent rate up over the last decade. IEA says 11mpbd in 10 years.

Failure to digest that data due to the belief or normalcy bias is what drives the differences we see here.

At last, we agree on something.

Claiming every war of the 20th century was about oil is historically inaccurate and naive. I suggest you read some history books or take some college courses on 20th century history.

Riiight. Who are you talking to? Cos I don't see any posts that claim all wars in the 20th century were about oil.

>Ah, the standard corny argument. Past = this, therfore future also = this.
It's called scientific method.
Ah the standard POisNow method. Some aspect of Past = always this, therfore immediate future of this aspect = different
What a great method peakoilers have used for the last 100 years.
Now what was the defintion of having the same start everytime, getting the same result everytime, but expecting a different result everytime?
Madness. How fitting.
Last edited by meemoe_uk on Fri 18 Feb 2011, 09:47:27, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
meemoe_uk
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 948
Joined: Tue 22 May 2007, 03:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Adelaidewonderer » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 09:39:14

Oil is extremely cheap. Until costs go above $10000 a barrel, we don't need to worry about cost.


$66 a litre hey (plus taxes) . Using 8 litres to get to work and back, doesnt quite make work a viable option.
Last edited by Adelaidewonderer on Fri 18 Feb 2011, 10:26:00, edited 1 time in total.
Adelaidewonderer
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon 31 Jan 2011, 23:29:49

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby mididoctors » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 10:02:46

meemoe_uk wrote:
What makes peakers so sure that they've got it right this time? What is the unique factual difference that distinguishs this oil crisis from previous ones?
What would a 2010 peak oiler say to a 1979 peaker or a 1920 peaker to show them that this peak is different?
Skeptics have looked, we really wanted to find the difference aswell. In this respect we're just like peakers. It's just that we're not satisfied with the we really know...this...is...it!!! method of knowing.
We used other ways to detect the difference. and this is what we found - There is no difference.

.


I think it is good you raise these arguments

well it is different

there has been an inability to move off the plateau for 5-6 yrs which was predicted btw, where as in 79 the high price was a short spike which dropped back down when oecd production kicked in (the north sea then prudhoe etc)

the high prices of 79 where very short lived and rose rapidily due to gulf issues above ground. Also the price elevated from a controled opec price plateau which had been steady for 6 yrs or so

Currently $80 oil is now a consistent price basement. We have jumped to a new paradigm that is not comparable, it is not the same because there is consistencey and the fact people are arguing about peaks in C+C of very marginal quantities highlights how different it is... the price can fluctuate now between 75 and 100 odd dollars but production can stay flat... that should tell us something.

the current prices rises up to the productionplateau grew in reflexive nature to the in-flexion in oil production stating in about 2000 (ex short price dip due to 2001 depression) as opposed to a rapid artificial move in 1979

moreover the above ground issues you highlight will more than likely compound to keep it on this plateau irrespective of the geology because a plateau centric cartel could only be broken by a massive influx of cheap oil..

so you are saying that by 2015 or so deep water /polar oil comes online and pushes the price back down but you have to calculate for 5 yrs of conventional decline in the meantime. which may not be that bad if extensive EOR is used but it still keeps the price up...

lets say your right and the price drops back... we still have to figure that the cycles between supply crunch and alleviation are taking on a longer and more costly nature... so when the polar oil/deep water oil is in decline?

6 yrs after 1979 oil was cheaper than it was in 1978

your scenario is that after 10 ys since 2005 oil is going to be cheaper than what?
Last edited by mididoctors on Fri 18 Feb 2011, 10:11:04, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
mididoctors
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 578
Joined: Mon 30 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: London

PreviousNext

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests