meemoe_uk wrote:it would send a good hard message out to the 'peak oil crisis is now' gang. Don't you think?
It would send a message but not a good hard one. The message would be that we don't know exactly when peak oil will be, or was, until many years after the event. Attempts to predict the timing (or to call a peak) are always likely to be wrong, since we can't see into the future. What does appear to be evident is that the cheap oil - conventional crude - is, at best, in a plateau stage and that should sound warnings to everyone. We won't see cheap oil again, except during bad recessions. Expect a lot of those.
TheDude wrote:2008 would have trumped 2005 if not for the recession
You may well be right but you can't be certain of that. All we have to go on is historical data. Remember, also, that conventional crude is the cheap stuff, the most profitable stuff. Why would oil companies cut back on that kind of crude, instead of the less profitable stuff, when the oil price fell? Some unconventional oil would have still been needed, since conventional couldn't supply demand on its own, but some, even much, unconventional oil would have been close to unprofitable as oil prices fell to its lows in 2008.