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PeakOil is You

THE International Energy Agency (IEA) pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: IEA: 'we've peaked'

Unread postby Ferretlover » Mon 30 Nov 2009, 14:12:42

Off topic posts deleted from this thread. Please stay on topic. Thank you.
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I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby energyhoggin » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 09:36:45

article from the international energy association:

" Ultimately recoverable conventional oil resources, which include initial proven and probable reserves from discovered fields, reserves growth and oil that has yet to be found, are estimated at 3.5 trillion barrels. Only a third of this total, or 1.1 trillion barrels, has been produced up to now. Undiscovered resources account for about a third of the remaining recoverable oil, the largest volumes of which are thought to lie in the Middle East, Russia and the Caspian region. Non-conventional oil resources, which have been barely developed to date, are also very large. Between 1 and 2 trillion barrels of oil sands and extra-heavy oil may be ultimately recoverable economically. These resources are largely concentrated in Canada (mainly in Alberta province) and Venezuela (in the Orinoco belt). The total long-term potentially recoverable oil-resource base, including extra-heavy oil, oil sands and oil shales (another largely undeveloped, though costly resource), is estimated at around 6.5 trillion barrels. Adding coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids increases this potential to about 9 trillion barrels. "

link http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/ ... nglish.pdf
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby ian807 » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 09:57:51

Back of the envelope calculation says this should last 100 years or thereabouts.

Of course, 1/3 is "undiscovered sources." Another 1/3 is "unconventional oil." Undiscovered may mean "doesn't exist" and "unconventional" may mean "shale oil" which may, or may not be worth getting at from an economic/ecologic/energy return point of view.

So 30 years for sure. Of course, "recoverable" is not the same as "cheap" or "strongly energy positive."

So maybe 10 to 15 years of affordable, energy-positive oil, if demand slows down enough.

"Affordable" isn't the same as "cheap" either. Maybe 5 to 7 years of under $200/barrel prices. Maybe less, if there's any sort of oil supply disruption like war in the middle east, or a demand surge through economic expansion of developing countries.

Still, the I.E.A. report is encouraging, if slightly misleading. If we're lucky, we will spend a long time powering down, and that leaves us more time to develop alternatives.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby Bas » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 10:03:30

Wooooohoooo!!! [smilie=5baby.gif]


And to think I had the impression they were becoming more pessimistic in recent years, how wrong I was...
"The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."

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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 11:10:50

Bas wrote:Wooooohoooo!!! [smilie=5baby.gif]


And to think I had the impression they were becoming more pessimistic in recent years, how wrong I was...


The 9 trillion number has been around awhile, all it requires is a little research and then some addition.

The entire game appears to revolve around the conversion of those resources into reserves, the peakers trying to limit the volumes to the smallest numbers to scare people ( think...climate types and their models ), and the geologists and such noting for the record that there is much more available than most people think. Adding up all the obvious forms can hit 9 trillion barrels, and the IEA is just noticing like the geoscience guys do.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby MD » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 12:25:56

Could be more than 9 trillion. There are great career opportunities in energy. Great opportunities! It will take huge investment in human and capital resource in order to bring those reserves to production. Huge!

Just don't expect it to be cheap.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby hillsidedigger » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 12:28:01

There is a parallel discussion occurring about world timber (except of course in some places, timber is somewhat renewable).

The extractionists state that since there's 10 billion acres of timberland in the world and since only about 30 million (but growing) acres are harvested worldwide each year then there's at least 300 years of timber, not to mention that in some of those areas some trees will grow back.

In truth, 90% of the world's standing volume of desirable and worthy to extract timber is likely contained on less than 10% of the world's timberland and the decimation of that 10% will be completed in just a few more years.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 12:40:53

shortonsense wrote:
Bas wrote:Wooooohoooo!!! [smilie=5baby.gif]


And to think I had the impression they were becoming more pessimistic in recent years, how wrong I was...


The 9 trillion number has been around awhile, all it requires is a little research and then some addition.

The entire game appears to revolve around the conversion of those resources into reserves, the peakers trying to limit the volumes to the smallest numbers to scare people ( think...climate types and their models ), and the geologists and such noting for the record that there is much more available than most people think. Adding up all the obvious forms can hit 9 trillion barrels, and the IEA is just noticing like the geoscience guys do.
You have made two strategic political/social errors here and you lost any lingering audiance you may have developed at PO.

By denigrating "climate types" you have cavalierly dismissed the vast majority of educated intelligent middle class readers who understand the threat of global climate change. You then lost the rest of the readers when you call on a IEA for support. The International Energy Association is a Paris-based EU organization that does not work for red or blue state America.

The US remains one of the world's largest petroleum producers at 6 billion barrels per day. We could easily become exporters with a bit of conservation. France and their EU clients need to keep the price down. We don't 8)
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 12:57:22

Cool, I like driving when the need arises anyway, and I bet collapsing ice shelves will make for totally boss TV. A1 scenario here we come!
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby kmann » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 13:46:47

pstarr wrote:The US remains one of the world's largest petroleum producers at 6 billion barrels per day.

If only.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 14:31:34

pstarr wrote:
shortonsense wrote:The 9 trillion number has been around awhile, all it requires is a little research and then some addition.


You have made two strategic political/social errors here and you lost any lingering audience you may have developed at PO.


Good thing I specialize in science and critical thinking then, let the political elite do as they wish in combination with social gladflys.

pstarr wrote:By denigrating "climate types" you have cavalierly dismissed the vast majority of educated intelligent middle class readers who understand the threat of global climate change.


I denigrate no one by applying the stereotypical term "climate types" to the subset of fundamentally illogical and sometimes hysterical subgroup which populates this particular site. As has been amply demonstrated by their PO counterparts, these belief systems can leap education and social divisions in a single bound.

And you are off topic...this thread is about the 9 trillion barrel number, not your newest attempt at trolling.

pstarr wrote:You then lost the rest of the readers when you call on a IEA for support. The International Energy Association is a Paris-based EU organization that does not work for red or blue state America.


I called on the IEA for nothing. Dr Saleri noticed these same numbers years ago, the IEA is doing nothing more than straightening up their bookkeeping by noticing the obvious, regardless of the claims of the "only light sweet crude, onshore, at less than a depth of 2000'" matters gang. All evidence to the contrary of course.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby Timo » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 14:47:46

Millions and millions of years in the making. Just a century + a few years to burn it all up.

That amount of CO2 converted from earth to gas in the atmosphere in such a miniscule amount of geological time just can't be good. We're well on our way to creating another Mars on the 3rd planet from the sun.

I wish i was kidding.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 16:19:34

Come on shorty. You deny AGW, peak oil, and evolution. It seems to be a package deal with you Tea-Baggers? (dingle . . . dingle. . . Dangle 8O )
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 17:09:36

pstarr wrote:Come on shorty. You deny AGW, peak oil, and evolution. It seems to be a package deal with you Tea-Baggers? (dingle . . . dingle. . . Dangle 8O )


Your characterization of my positions are, as usual, incorrect. Go back and review, there is no reason I should bore the group refuting your nonsense because you can't read.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby Cloud9 » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 18:18:48

Good to know I have been worried about nothing. :-D
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 19:35:41

Cloud9 wrote:Good to know I have been worried about nothing. :-D


As incorrect an assumption as the peak oil "we're all going to die" argument itself.

Resource depletion is a real issue, and estimating it, size, effect, and timing, honestly and scientifically, matters.

Unfortunately, a vast majority of the arguments put forth within peaker mythology should not be confused with an actual resource depletion debate.

For a vast majority of the people involved, PO is just a rationalization. For a minority, its an important scientific question. The qualifiers should really be reversed.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby Cloud9 » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 21:07:52

Short,don’t take this too seriously, but I am not going to part with my beans and bullets based on an assumption. 8)
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 21:20:49

OilFinder2 wrote:Well, between this, all that shale gas, and the uranium in the shale, I think it's officially time to put all this energy shortage silliness to rest.
Actually, I wouldn't move quite so fast. You see, simply because I disagree with quite a bit of the circular reference nonsense inflicted by peakers on themselves, does not mean there aren't issues of value to debate here. Certainly these issues may cause more expensive energy, at the least, for humankind.

Much like the "turning the corner" in the US with many of the environment acts and regulations of the late-60's, and 70's, fossil fuel useage is now being demonized for its carbon footprint. It is this demonization to some extent which is driving substantial changes in thinking about how us humans should transport ourselves. For example, within just the past 10 years an entire new class of auto has been invented, capitalized, manufactured and sold in large numbers to the public based on not much more than efficiency. THAT, in America, is simply amazing.

And now, with quite reasonable fuel prices since the summer of 2008, what is coming up next? Why, PHEV's and EV's to the regular consumer. And what else? Why...the wind generated electrical capacity to power them.

Now, what is fortunate, and tends to knock down every Doomer scenario every voiced, is that these massive amounts of fossil fuels and uranium we do have make a transition to a much more electrical future just that much easier.

None of this equates to big houses or HumVee's, but certainly they aren't required to disappear in any reasonable future, but I would certainly expect there to be fewer of them, and more of the efficient vehicles.

The 9 trillion barrels of various types of hydrocarbon molecules we can convert into liquid fuels just means that something liquid fuel powered will still be driving around the streets of America many, many years from now. Might be to an antique car show, but they certainly won't be parked for lack of fuels.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 21:24:08

Cloud9 wrote:Short,don’t take this too seriously, but I am not going to part with my beans and bullets based on an assumption. 8)


Never have I asked anyone to change their personal preparations. Certainly when I started preparing for a post peak world after the 1979 peak oil I wouldn't have listened to anyone who tried to dissuade me from trajectory of preparation.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby rangerone314 » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 09:19:24

Hoorah! 9 trillion barrels left...

So when does oil production rise to 90 million barrels?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

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Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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