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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 4

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby Lore » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 10:00:40

If people reverted to doing things the old way in mass, you'd find many only able to visit their local WalMart once a month. Which would make it pretty uncertain a WalMart would even be there. Over 7 billion people may find it hard to exist.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 11:39:28

meemoe_uk wrote:
Pops wrote:
meemoe_uk wrote:This evidences what I say about the IEA making 2 contradictory statements, their figures say peak oil hasn't happened yet, yet they will publish assertions of peak oil being 4 years ago. Still waiting for Pops to get back to me on that one.

What is it you don't understand?

On this narrow subject, I don't know.

Conventional oil production volume hasn't increased in half a decade – the $20/bbl kind we've been burning for 150 years can't meet demand regardless of the record prices.

Same PO nonsense, heres the same reply -
Conventional oil always peaks in the past, because convention changes rapidly . The 1st convention - bucket and spade from surface seep oil peaked over a hundred yeras ago. So what? It doesn't matter.
Oh it matters a great deal. That early oil was difficult to extract, rare. Later oil was inexpensive, abundant--both a consequence and a cause of modern industrial civilization. Later oil was easy to extract using new technology--rotary drills made possible by a complex industrial system itself a consequence of increasingly abundant inexpensive energy.

Now we are going back to expensive oil. And industrial complexity will decline.

meemoe_uk wrote:All oils is the only measure that matters. Thoughout the hundreds of years of oil, doomers can always point to yesterday's conventional oil declining, but it has never resulting in any serious crisis, because todays convention has always more than replaced the lost supply. There is no sign of it stopping yet.
You don't seem to be understanding this.
You don't seem to understand that current oil is of a lower quality, more difficult to produce. Uses energy.

You need to understand EROEI. Yesterday's conventional oil (light sweet crude) flowed out of the ground under its own pressure, less cost to produce, resulted in more free energy, profit. Net-energy analysis tells us that Spindletop gave us 99 barrels of oil for every 1 expended. Ghawar 75:1. Deep pre-salt, tar, fract oil are 5:1 or less. So there is less profit for the company and the society. Less net energy leaves the system and available for productive work.


The oil expense indicator describes the social/economic consequence of higher energy production costs relative to GDP. We see declining real productive work, we see less of that work multiplied (as in the economic 'multiplier' effect) by craploads of inexpensive energy. So we see declining roads, cities, even natural capital because more and more money, energy, work, goes into just getting energy. Less left over for Mom and the Kids to drive to Mall to shop.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 12:12:02

You make my point better than I do: today's population can't support itself without cheap energy.

I didn't make that point. But assuming there's some truth in it, I think this arguement is logical...
0.5 cents for 1 man hours work is cheap energy.
- Therefore todays population can support itself.


Also 5 cents for 1 man hours work is cheap energy
- therefore todays population could support itself even if oil was 10x more expensive.


So by your own argument, we are fine for a long time.

Personally I don't think your right, I think todays society could support itself even with relatively expensive energy. Like oil at 50cents for a man hours work, or even $1.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 12:22:17

Meemi, It appears you are quite incapable of responding to serious debate with reasonable response. I gave you a chance at an education and some self pride--all in one comment. You now have 10 seconds to reclaim your soul/mind. 9 seconds. 8.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby sparky » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 22:30:44

.
Oil at 1$ man hour would put us on the back of horses for the well off and on bicycle for the rest
government budget would be halved at least
farming would see a ten fold increase in badly paid farm hands
public servants and tertiary workers would see their numbers halve
work compulsion would be implemented by a shrinking of doles and social programs
domestic servants would make a big comeback
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Sat 02 Jun 2012, 13:28:18

Hi Sparky,
On 8th November 2005 JD wrote an article covering what happens in the low energy society that comes 50 or so years after 'the peak of oil party'.
It's Japan. Japan uses much less fossil fuel than othere 1st world country, and less energy generally.
Is the result misery and poverty?
No quite the opposite. Japan has for decades been ranked in the top 5 and often the best in the world for good living, per Capita earning, long living, nice clean environment, plenty of jobs.
Everyone rides round on bikes.
Image
A low energy society is fine. Shouldn't suprise anyone, as most of today's western societies spends trillions on luxuries. We have so much 'surplus' people have lost their sense of how extremely rich in energy we are.

No peaker ever reads history or old articles because they are trapped by the old trick the hype of the 'now' where every day's new scare and hype headline makes them drop their past only think of the hype of the present. So they won't touch something from November 2005.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 02 Jun 2012, 14:05:56

Hey meemie, if you are going to make a fallacious Appeal to Authority, then you'd better find a more reputable source. JD was laughed off this site long ago. He's a Has-Been and out of the picture for years.

But to your point, Japan is a low energy society because it has (like many post-industrial states) outsourced its energy demands and pollution to 3rd-world countries. As to your other point; of course we are rich in energy --- we are at the peak, the apogee on the logistics curve, the height of energy use. But not for long
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby sparky » Sat 02 Jun 2012, 19:26:33

.
Japan like Europe and the U.S. got rid of a lot of manufacturing offshore
it's great for the mother companies , they keep the Research and development ,
the financial structure ,the merchandizing ....Etc
all the energy intensive , socially troublesome manufacturing process is send far away
energy costs are now hidden in the containers unloaded at the docks
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby sparky » Sat 02 Jun 2012, 19:27:59

sparky wrote:.
Japan like Europe and the U.S. got rid of a lot of manufacturing offshore
it's great for the mother companies , they keep the Research and development ,
the financial structure ,the merchandizing ....Etc
all the energy intensive , socially troublesome manufacturing process is send far away
energy costs are now hidden in the containers unloaded at the docks


Even those nice bicycles are probably imported
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 02 Jun 2012, 19:43:37

Metal bashing is low paid but takes energy. Metal bashing industries are in the low paid but increasingly fossil fuel consuming countries.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Sun 03 Jun 2012, 03:46:59

sparky wrote:Japan like Europe and the U.S. got rid of a lot of manufacturing offshore
it's great for the mother companies , they keep the Research and development ,
the financial structure ,the merchandizing ....Etc
all the energy intensive , socially troublesome manufacturing process is send far away
energy costs are now hidden in the containers unloaded at the docks


By that logic Japan should have hit an energy consumption high around 1995 when its manufacturing was still 94% domestic, but it didn't. Now it's down to 80% while its energy consumption has plateaued.

Image
Image
Image

It's curious that Japan's average energy use per capita is actually about the same for western European countries. Both Europe and Japan get by with about half the energy per capita of the USA.
So the question becomes : So why was JD so interested in expounding Japan as some sort of unique example of an energy efficiency economy when several countries in Europe are seemingly just as energy efficient?

The answer negates one of your assumptions. Unlike the USA and most of Western Europe, Japan retains most of its domestic manufacturing, and its the manufacturing industry that consumes most of the energy. The Japanese citizens get relatively little of their country's annual energy. In the US and western Europe its other other way round. The citizens get the energy, while manufacturing doesn't need it because it's mostly offshore.
Japan retains about 80% of its domestic maufacturing. For the USA it's down to around 30%.

Countries don't tend to decomission power plants as soon as a manufacturing plant goes offshore. Instead the citizen's get the energy. It's only now in the West, 15 years after the bulk of manufacturing has been offshored to china and india that efforts are made by the powers that be to shut down energy production - cue the creation of the AGW religion.
Last edited by meemoe_uk on Sun 03 Jun 2012, 03:57:16, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 03 Jun 2012, 03:55:20

sparky wrote:.
Japan like Europe and the U.S. got rid of a lot of manufacturing offshore
it's great for the mother companies , they keep the Research and development ,
the financial structure ,the merchandizing ....Etc
all the energy intensive , socially troublesome manufacturing process is send far away
energy costs are now hidden in the containers unloaded at the docks

Chinese R&D has been advancing in leaps and bounds in recent years, it won't be long before Chinese products are 100% designed and made in china, rather than just components used in US/EU designed products.
When they start on the financial structure, then people will really wake up!
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merge

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 06 Jul 2012, 17:49:19

Report: Renewable energy generation to increase 40% by 2017

A report from the International Energy Agency says that, despite economic uncertainties in several countries, power generation from wind, solar, hydroelectric and other renewable sources is expected to increase by more than 40 percent to almost 6,400 TWh by 2017.
The study, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, says that renewable power generation should increase by 1,840 TWh between 2011 and 2017, almost 60 percent above the 1,160 TWh growth registered between 2005 and 2011. Non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries will account for two-thirds of this growth, and significant development is expected in the U.S., Brazil, India and Germany, among others.
According to BNamericas, Brazil will add 32 GW of renewable energy to its power grid over the next five years, putting the country tied at fourth with Germany among countries expected to expand most in the renewable energy sector by 2017. China is ranked first with plans to install 270 GW, followed by the U.S. with 56 GW and India with 39 GW, the article said.
Hydropower continues to account for the majority of renewable generation and it registers 730 TWh of growth, the largest absolute growth of any single renewable technology over the next five years, largely driven by non-OECD countries. Onshore wind, bioenergy and solar photovoltaic see the largest increases, respectively, in generation after hydropower. Offshore wind and CSP grow quickly from low bases. Geothermal continues to develop in areas with good resources. Ocean technologies take important steps towards commercialization.


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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 27 Jul 2012, 02:15:42

Wind Power Will Grow by 100 TWh per Year, Says IEA

Wind power will be the second biggest contributor to global renewable electricity generation by 2017, according to a ground-breaking report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Despite economic uncertainties in many countries, global power generation from renewable sources including wind will increase by more than 40% to almost 6,400 terawatt hours (TWh) — roughly the equivalent of one-and-a-half times current electricity production in the U.S., predicts the Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012.

This is the first time the IEA has devoted a medium-term report to renewable power sources and the agency says this is “a recognition of the dynamic and increasing role of renewable energy in the global power mix”. It forecasts that renewable electricity generation will expand by 1,840 TWh between 2011 and 2017, almost 60% above the growth registered between 2005 and 2011.

By 2017, wind power (onshore and offshore) should make the largest contribution to global renewable electricity generation after hydro at 16.7%. Between 2011 and 2017, wind power should grow on average by 100 TWh per year — an increase of 15.6%, says the IEA. Onshore wind power will account for 90% of this growth, as its capacity rises from 230 GW to over 460 GW.


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IEA Report on Clean Energy--Just Do It!

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 24 Aug 2012, 12:09:51

Tracking Clean Energy Progress:
Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 excerpt as IEA input to the Clean Energy Ministerial


Global demand for energy shows no signs of slowing; carbon dioxide emissions keep surging to new records; and political uprisings, natural disasters and volatile energy markets put the security of energy supplies to the test.

More than ever, the need for a fundamental shift to a cleaner and more reliable energy system is clear. What technologies can make that transition happen? How do they work? And how much will it all cost?

The 2012 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), to be released in June, answers these and other fundamental questions. Its up-to-date analysis, data and associated website are an indispensible resource for energy technology and policy professionals in the public and private sectors.

ETP 2012 is the International Energy Agency’s most ambitious and comprehensive publication on new energy technology developments. It demonstrates how technologies – from electric vehicles to wind farms – can make a decisive difference in achieving the internationally agreed objective of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It also provides guidance for decision makers on how to reshape current energy trends to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future...

In summary, the following analysis finds that a few clean energy technologies are currently on track to meet the 2DS objectives. Cost reductions over the past decade and significant annual growth rates have been seen for onshore wind (27%) and solar photo-voltaic (PV) (42%). This is positive, but maintaining this progress will be challenging...

The technologies with the greatest potential for energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions savings, however, are making the slowest progress:

carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not seeing the necessary rates of investment into full-scale demonstration projects and nearly one-half of new coal-fired power plants are still being built with inefficient technology;

vehicle fuel-efficiency improvement is slow;

and significant untapped energy-efficiency potential remains in the building and industry sectors.


The transition to a low-carbon energy sector is affordable and represents tremendous business opportunities, but investor confidence remains low due to policy frameworks that do not provide certainty and address key barriers to technology deployment. Private sector financing will only reach the levels required if governments create and maintain supportive business environments for low-carbon energy technologies.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri 24 Aug 2012, 18:17:23, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE IEA Thread pt 3.
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Re: IEA Report on Clean Energy--Just Do It!

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 24 Aug 2012, 17:56:42

Heres' the link.
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IEA may release oil reserves as soon as September

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 24 Aug 2012, 18:06:37

IEA may release oil reserves as soon as September
World oil consumers are poised to tap into emergency oil inventories as soon as early September after the International Energy Agency (IEA) dropped its resistance to a U.S.-led plan, a source and an oil journal said on Friday.

The IEA, whose chief dismissed the need for emergency action as recently as a week ago, is now thought to have agreed to the idea, the industry journal Petroleum Economist reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources.

The agency, which advises industrialized countries on energy policy, was worried that key members including the United States, France and Britain might make act together to draw on stockpiles without coordinating with the rest of the group, undermining its credibility, according to the report, which was largely substantiated by an industry source.

"The U.S. is the main driver, the IEA sees no need for a release. However, if major consumers such as the U.S., UK and France want a release, the IEA is likely to step up and play a role," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"A release could be as early as September."

News that consumer nations could be moving quickly toward intervening in oil markets again weighed on prices, with benchmark Brent crude falling $1.42 a barrel or 1.2 percent to close at $113.59 a barrel. The impact was muted by oil platform closures as a storm heads toward the U.S. Gulf.

The Petroleum Economist said that the sharp decline in Iran's oil exports this year would be used as a justification.


reuters
Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri 24 Aug 2012, 18:15:31, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with IEA thread.
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Aug 2012, 09:49:12

Thanks for adding the link, G.

Do you think the timing of the release has anything to do with the timing of the election?
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 25 Aug 2012, 22:18:10

Possibly. I think it should be clear to you why this decision was made by looking the the recent statement published by the EIA (see EIA thread):

Global spare oil inventories tightened over the last two months, a U.S. government report said on Friday, which could lend the Obama administration some support if it decides to tap emergency oil reserves as the West applies sanctions on Iran.

World crude inventories in countries other than Iran fell about 1.2 million barrels per day in July and August, due mostly to a seasonal peak in demand, said the report by the Energy Information Administration.

The report, required by the Iran sanctions law President Barack Obama signed last year, is published every two months by the Energy Information Administration. A copy of it was obtained by Reuters ahead of its publication.

The draw was smaller than a 1.6 million-bpd dip seen last year in the same time period. But any drop in supplies due to demand, in addition to a sharp decline in Iranian oil sales because of the sanctions, could give the Obama administration support to tap emergency oil reserves.


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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 28 Aug 2012, 17:49:57

IEA Head Says Oil Market Doesn’t Have Serious Supply Outage

The oil market has enough supply and there is no need for the release of emergency inventories for the moment, the head of the International Energy Agency said.

“We don’t have a serious disruption of supply,” Maria van der Hoeven, head of the Paris-based energy adviser, said today in an interview in Stavanger, Norway. “The market is sufficiently well supplied and when there is the collective action needed as there was last year, it can only be when we are talking about a serious disruption of supply.”

The IEA’s 28-member countries made available 60 million barrels of crude and oil products in June 2011 after Libyan output was disrupted by an armed uprising against Muammar Qaddafi. Brent crude prices peaked last year at about $127 a barrel in mid-April and briefly fell below $105 in late June. Oil traded at $112.14 a barrel in London today after gaining almost 26 percent since the end of June.

Rising gasoline prices and production cuts tied to Tropical Storm Isaac churning through the Gulf of Mexico have boosted speculation the U.S. will announce a release from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The IEA also made supplies available when Hurricane Katrina struck rigs and refineries in 2005.


U.S. authorities haven’t contacted the IEA on the use of emergency supplies, Hoeven said.


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