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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 4

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA's Didier Houssin: the world's energy future not hope

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 10 Jun 2013, 16:04:06

Here's a further recent report on this issue from the IEA.

STATEMENT: IEA Report Finds "World Is Not On Track" to Meet Climate Goals

The International Energy Agency released a new report today, Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map, finding that global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2012 increased by 1.4 percent, reaching a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes. Energy-related emissions account for around two-thirds of total global greenhouse gas emissions. The report contains four specific recommendations to keep the world within 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise.

Following is a statement by Andrew Steer, President and CEO, World Resources Institute:

“Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are heading toward dangerous and unfamiliar territory. Projected temperature rise is approaching thresholds where the consequences would be truly dire. It’s not too late to prevent such an outcome, but the window to avoid dire impacts is closing quickly. These are some of the takeaways from the new report from the IEA, the autonomous organization focused on energy and economics, made up of 28 member countries.

“The common assumption is that action to reduce emissions is prohibitively expensive, but the evidence confirms that this is a flawed view. In fact, inaction is far more costly, risky and irresponsible. There are clear advantages to getting ahead and investing in low-carbon energy sources today, rather than trying to make corrections and retrofit equipment and infrastructure later on.

“The IEA’s new report offers affordable and common sense measures to rein in energy-related emissions. The core steps are to increase energy efficiency; limit emissions from coal-fired power plants; reduce leakage of methane from oil and gas production; and cut subsidies for fossil fuels. Importantly, the report finds that these steps can be achieved with no net economic cost.


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Re: IEA's Didier Houssin: the world's energy future not hope

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 10 Jun 2013, 18:45:36

Really a classic Jevons paradox is working against CO2 mitigation- reduction. We keep making more of more efficient machinery using more of the resource not less. There is nothing happening globally to halt the spread of personalized ICE transport, or of coal fired electricity. A small car costs only a few thousand dollars in China or India, a small motorbike a few hundred. China adds Australia's coal burning effort equivalent every 2 months, that's 6 more Australia's a year worth of CO2, buys more new cars than Europe, more new motorcycles than the Americas combined. They are also close to leading the race to be able to run a fleet on electricity- mostly via coal- so even the next generation moving beyond oil will still be pumping megatons of CO2.
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Re: IEA's Didier Houssin: the world's energy future not hope

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 10 Jun 2013, 19:41:03

Details of the four IEA's policies, which they recommend should be done before 2020, are presented in the executive summary on pages 10 and 11 of their report (the authors are listed at the beginning). They do not mention ICE transport but do say that new sub-critical (least efficient) coal plants should not be built. I haven't read the entire report yet. I may have further comments later.

Here is how jevon's paradox is criticised in wiki:

Several points have been raised against this argument. First, in the context of a mature market such as for oil in developed countries, the direct rebound effect is usually small, and so increased fuel efficiency usually reduces resource use, other conditions remaining constant.[6][9][10] Second, even if increased efficiency does not reduce the total amount of fuel used, there remain other benefits associated with improved efficiency. For example, increased fuel efficiency may mitigate the price increases, shortages and disruptions in the global economy associated with peak oil.[11] Third, environmental economists have pointed out that fuel use will unambiguously decrease if increased efficiency is coupled with an intervention (e.g. a green tax) that keeps the cost of fuel use the same or higher.[3]
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Re: IEA's Didier Houssin: the world's energy future not hope

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 10 Jun 2013, 22:13:07

Having quickly read the entire report, I have to say that this is one of the more important reports that the IEA has published in recent years. I would hope that they repeat this style of report and publish an update say every five years to see how far we have progressed. I wrote a few notes as I read:

On pages 16, energy efficiency in vehicles, appliances, houses and industry was discussed, while on page 21, energy efficiency policies for US, EU, China and India were described.

On page 22, there is a discussion on carbon markets.

On page 26, I noted that China's emissions were 300 MT in 2012. Figure 1.9 shows declining emissions.

On page, 32, Australia, China, India Poland and South Africa are heavily reliant on coal to produce electricity.

On page 39, transport requires the largest investment of $6.3 trillion for more efficient or alternative vehicles.

From page 47 onwards, the four policies are discussed in more detail.

On page 75, the building blocks for steep abatement is described which includes adoption of renewables, nuclear and CCS.

On page 83, discussion about managing climate risks.

On page 97, economic impacts of climate policies are discussed.

Onpage 113, implications of delayed action.
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Re: IEA Medium Term Outlook

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 15:43:46

IEA Forecasts Sustained Energy Growth, But No 'Era of Oil Abundance'

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) in November, looking twenty-plus years into our energy future. The trends it describes add nuance and detail to last year's projections, rather than upending them. Among other things they advance the expected date of global oil production leadership by the US to 2015 but suggest these gains may be short-lived and will not lead to "cheap oil." The IEA also envisions a reshuffling of the traditional roles of energy importing, exporting and consuming countries, against a backdrop of steadily increasing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.

As in previous years, the new WEO examines the full range of energy supply and demand, with a focus this time on the sources and uses of petroleum, and the emergence of Brazil as an oil and energy power. While recognizing that they might be underestimating the potential for technology or additional resource discoveries to sustain the growth of "light tight oil", or shale oil, which together with oil sands and gas liquids is a primary driver of oil supply growth today, the IEA forecasts it would peak by 2025.

That puts the burden for supporting oil demand growth and the replacement of supplies lost to natural decline after 2025 back onto the Middle East producers. So in the IEA's view, OPEC's loss of market power appears temporary. A corollary to this is that the agency does not anticipate a sustained drop in oil prices, but rather a gradual increase of about 16% by 2035. That's because the unconventional oil helping to drive current market shifts is still relatively high-cost, compared to the large conventional oil resources of the Middle East.

Although the IEA expects the global oil market to grow from its present level of around 90 million barrels per day (MBD) to 101 MBD in 2035, that change would be less than their forecasted equivalent global growth in gas, renewables or even coal. The concentration of oil demand in transport and petrochemicals would also increase, while other uses contract slightly. This is consistent with last year's observation that the center of the oil market is shifting towards Asia, since around one-third of the total anticipated growth in oil demand is for diesel to fuel goods deliveries in Asia.


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Re: IEA Medium Term Outlook

Unread postby sparky » Mon 30 Dec 2013, 22:44:07

.
For information , it is quite common to have a tanker re-routed for spot market reason ,
the cargo might even change owner a couple of time
for long time contract it's not as bad but swap take place all the time
Azerbaijan sell oil to someone, delivery on the Baltic ,
it goes to Russia and Russia give some of its West Siberian crude as a swap
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For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 17 Mar 2014, 20:18:41

For World Water Day, IEA shares in-depth analysis of energy sector’s use

The energy sector already accounts for about 15% of the world’s total water use, so for World Water Day, on 22 March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is sharing its most detailed analysis of the sector’s impact on water resources.

“Water for Energy: Is energy becoming a thirstier resource?”, a chapter from the IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 (WEO-2012), is now available for free on the IEA website. The analysis reveals how much water is used by various energy processes and assesses the sector’s vulnerabilities as rising population and growing economies constrain water resources around the globe.

“Water availability is a growing concern for energy, and assessing the energy sector’s use of water is important in an increasingly water-constrained world,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said. “The IEA’s in-depth analysis of the nexus of water and energy can help countries identify ways to use water most effectively and efficiently in energy production and consumption. Now the IEA is sharing that expertise with everyone.”

Water is critical for electricity generation as well as the extraction, transport and processing of fossil fuels, even the irrigation of crops that go into biofuels. Water shortages in India and the United States, among other countries, have limited energy output in the past two years, while the heavy use of water in unconventional oil and gas production has generated considerable public concern.

Moreover, the energy sector’s water needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects. In some regions, water constraints are already affecting the reliability of existing operations and they will introduce additional costs. The IEA analysis draws on the WEO-2012’s central policy scenario to show that expanding power generation and biofuels output underpins an 85% increase in the amount consumed (the volume of water that is not returned to its source after use) through to 2035.

“Since water and energy are essential resources, we need to find ways to ensure that use of one does not limit access to the other. As demand for both continues to increase, this will be a growing challenge and priority,” Ms. Van der Hoeven emphasised.

To download the WEO-2012 excerpt "Water for Energy: Is energy becoming a thirstier resource?", please click here.


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Re: For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 17 Mar 2014, 21:18:33

World Water Day?
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Re: For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby rollin » Tue 18 Mar 2014, 06:45:58

Excellent use of water Keith!!!

Apparently, like everything else, industrial civilization can overrun the available resource, in this case water. Of course agriculture is the big culprit.

I can almost guarantee that as water shortages precipitate it will be put on the backs of private citizens to conserve and do without instead of the industrial system.
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Re: For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby GHung » Tue 18 Mar 2014, 09:16:49

rollin said: "...will be put on the backs of private citizens to conserve and do without instead of the industrial system."

Of course, there's little ground for complaint as long as they willingly and ravenously consume the products and energy produced by that industrial system. Even water issues in China can be, in part, related back to consumption in the west. But China will just build damns and 'steal' water from India and Bangladesh.... still, never enough. Just another case of humans consuming all available resources to further growth. Hard limits will be the cure for our lack of sapience.

Going more local, I've always questioned those who build their "sustainable communities" in places like like New Mexico where recurring drought is clearly the norm. Perhaps it's a way to impose limits on one's-self, via natural flows, much the way we off-gridders do with other forms of energy. It's a good lesson about distinguishing between needs and wants, one our species will learn the hard way.

Water is a sort of universal solvent, one we take for granted, and one reason I built near the top of a very wet watershed. About 321 million liters of rain falls on our property annually, but our water source was the first thing I developed when I decided to put down roots here. Seemed important at the time.
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Re: For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 16:30:42

How Power Generation Threatens Water Supplies, And Climate Change Threatens Both

The United Nations’ World Water Day 2014 is this Saturday. In its honor, the International Energy Agency is releasing its latest analysis of the intersection between the world’s power generation and its water use.
The numbers are pretty bracing.

Of the world’s freshwater supplies, 70 percent are locked up in the ice caps and glaciers, and almost another 30 percent are underground and hard to reach. Only about 0.3 percent is actually on the surface and easily accessible.

Of that measly 0.3 percent, only 11 percent goes to municipal uses, including direct consumption by humans. Seventy percent goes to agriculture and farming, and 11 percent goes to industrial uses. That last figure includes power generation, and it’s the intersection of energy and water with which the report is concerned.

Water is consumed at nearly every stage of energy production, especially when it comes to fossil fuels. It’s used in the hydraulic fluid in oil and natural gas fracking; it’s pumped into oil and gas wells to enhance recovery; it’s used to cut and suppress dust in coal mines; it’s used to wash coal before it’s burned; it’s used to make the slurry in which coal ash is stored after it’s burned; huge amounts are pulled in by coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants, both to cool things down and to generate the steam that spins the turbines; huge amounts are also consumed in the agricultural sector to produce biofuels; much smaller amounts are used for similar purposes for solar plants and concentrated solar power setups; and of course it’s stored in reservoirs for hydropower generation.

This also brings up the difference between withdrawal and consumption. Water that’s merely withdrawn for energy production is eventually returned to its source. Water that’s consumed is not. And the ranges of withdrawal and consumption are generally quite higher for nuclear and fossil fuel power than for wind or solar photovoltaics.



That’s a problem because parts of the world are currently hurting for water. Most of China and South Asia’s water resources are already “vulnerable,” India’s and some of Africa’s are “stressed,” and other parts of Africa are already suffering “absolute scarcity.” These areas are home to much of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable populations.


Image

IEA projects water consumption to double or more in both India’s and China’s energy sectors by 2035 — and that’s under its “New Policies” scenario, which is more optimistic than the “Current Policies” one. Withdrawal increases in both countries as well.
Finally, there’s climate change: water sources become less reliable as higher temperatures drive more precipitation and evaporation: snowpack goes down, which hurts freshwater supplies; higher surface water temperatures can make power plant cooling more difficult; and floods and sea level rise threaten freshwater supplies with contamination.


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Global food trade can alleviate water scarcity

International trade of food crops led to freshwater savings worth 2.4 billion US-Dollars in 2005 and had a major impact on local water stress. This is shown in a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Trading food involves the trade of virtually embedded water used for production, and the amount of that water depends heavily on the climatic conditions in the production region: It takes, for instance, 2.700 liters of water to produce 1 kilo of cereals in Morocco, while the same kilo produced in Germany uses up only 520 liters. Analyzing the impact of trade on local water scarcity, our scientists found that it is not the amount of water used that counts most, but the origin of the water. While parts of India or the Middle East alleviate their water scarcity through importing crops, some countries in Southern Europe export agricultural goods from water-scarce sites, thus increasing local water stress.

"Agriculture accounts for 70 percent of our global freshwater consumption and therefore has a huge potential to affect local water scarcity," lead author Anne Biewald says. The amount of water used in the production of agricultural export goods is referred to as virtual water trade. So far, however, the concept of virtual water could not identify the regional water source, but used national or even global averages instead. "Our analysis shows that it is not the amount of water that matters, but whether global food trade leads to conserving or depleting water reserves in water-scarce regions," Biewald says.


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Re: For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 19 Mar 2014, 17:13:55

Keith_McClary wrote:World Water Day?
Image



That reminds me of the tale of why the Irish drink so much beer. Seems a poor fisherman in Ireland named Paddy got very lucky one day and found the Leprechauns pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. The Leprechaun needed the gold back, it was after all his reason for existing, but Paddy was adamant that finders keepers was the rule. The Leprechaun cursed Paddy that never again would he touch water until such a time as he returned the Gold to the Leprechaun.

Paddy thought nothing of it as he hauled the pot of gold back home until he grew thirsty, but when he tried to dip water out of the stream to drink it refused to touch him. He even walked out on the water, trying to get to a spot where he could drink. Finally Paddy made it home where he slumped very thirsty at his table. His cousin wandered past and saw him sitting at the table, gathered him up and took him to the pub. That is where Paddy discovered Beer was immune to the curse, and from that day on he and his descendent became brewers, using the Pot of Gold (tm) to build his brew house and buy the barley and hops needed to quench his thirst. eventually Paddy grew rich selling his brew and being a good Catholic he wanted his last rites to be done well and proper with Holy Water so he made amends with the Leprechaun by replacing his 'found' gold plus a little more for good measure. By that time however he discovered that while he could touch and drink water, he no longer cared for the taste, only Beer satisfied his thirst. Paddy's descendents can be found today all over the Earth wherever the Irish have settled, drinking beer and disliking water.
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Re: For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 22 Mar 2014, 17:02:41

Solar Power Is A Huge Water Saver (World Water Day Infographic)

Every year on this day since 1993, the community of nations has focused on the importance of fresh water and advocated for the sustainable management of freshwater resources. Severe droughts experienced recently in places like the American West, the Horn of Africa, Russia, China, and Australia have highlighted the fact that humans are rapidly using up the world’s freshwater supplies—and when they’re gone, they’re gone. We are spending one of our most vital resources in greater volumes every day.


This year, the UN’s Water Day theme rests on a crucial link largely invisible to most of us: water and the production of energy.

“Water and energy are closely interlinked and interdependent. Energy generation and transmission requires utilization of water resources, particularly for hydroelectric, nuclear, and thermal energy sources. Conversely, about 8% of the global energy generation is used for pumping, treating, and transporting water to various consumers.”

One Block Off The Grid recently developed a cool infographic (below) to illustrate how energy production depends on water. It shows water use by four of the most common energy sources: coal, nuclear, oil and gas, and solar. Solar comes out on top big time.


Image

cleantechnica

10 Shocking Facts about the World’s Water

1. 3.4 million people—mainly children— die as a result of preventable water-related diseases every year.

2. 1.2 billion people—nearly 20 percent of the world’s population—live in areas of physical water scarcity. What does that mean? Water withdrawals for agriculture, industry, and domestic purposes exceed 75 percent of river flows.

3. In developing countries, an estimated 90 percent of sewage and 70 percent of industrial waste is discharged into waterways without any treatment at all.

4. Energy is a major user of water. In the US, thermoelectric power plants account for nearly 50% of all freshwater withdrawals.

5. There have been 265 recorded incidences of water conflicts from 3000 BC to 2012. The past several years have seen an increase in the total number of reports of violent conflict over water.

6. The last time the United States did an assessment of the water resources at the federal level was in the 1970s.

7. It takes more than twice the amount of water to produce coffee than it does tea. Chicken and goat are the least water intensive meats to consume. More about how much water your diet consumes here.

8. The amount of coal produced worldwide in 2009 required an estimated 1.3 to 4.5 billion cubic meters (m3) of water for extraction and processing. Global production of natural gas in 2009 required an estimated 840 million m3 of water.

9. Because groundwater levels have dropped as much as 14 meters in the past half century in China, some sections of the Great Wall have been buried by sand. It’s estimated that some of the Great Wall will be gone in 10-20 years if action if not taken.

10. Nearly 12 percent of Native Americans on reservations and 30 percent of Alaska Natives lack plumbing.


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Re: For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 24 Mar 2014, 17:20:48

Water Microfiltration Technologies Answer Global Water Challenges

Water demand is constantly rising to meet the needs of expanding industrial production, food and energy consumption. For many decades water resources have been withdrawn, wasted and polluted at elevated rates. In order to ensure an environmentally sustainable future, water use practices need to be changed. A more responsible individual approach to water saving and conservation is crucial, but at a global scale it is not enough. As usual, the solution is offered by the technologies of water treatment that allow its reuse in various fields: from industrial applications to drinking water supplies.

The evolution of microfiltration

In the last 30 years the evolution of water filtration, especially in the tertiary treatment section of the WWTP, received a remarkable impulse from agriculture, industrial activities, urban services and facilities. In these fields the main requirements are removal of suspended solids and hygienic quality. The interest in the prospects of water recycling and reuse, fueled research and development and brought on some important technological shifts.



In the past 10 years a new technology has reshaped the world of water microfiltration – the “dynamic-tangential filtration.”

How does it work? This kind of microfilter is equipped with filtering disk wheels in continuous rotation and the feeding of the water to be filtered is performed directly between the disk pairs. Solid particles pass through the meshes in oblique (tangential) directions, with a high speed. The filtering surface changes continuously as the filtering disks rotate. This leads to an increase of the filtration efficiency and prevents up to 10 microns diameter solid particles from passing through the filtering media. This new technology treats flow rates three times higher than the conventional filtering systems with immersed disks and intermittent operating. Even with the same installed filtering surface, the “dynamic-tangential filtration” working principle considerably reduces the machine’s footprint and maintenance and operating costs.

Thus, microfiltration technologies develop continuously in order to ensure the availability of water resources for the needs of agriculture, urban areas, industrial production and drinking water supply. Water reuse is to become a norm on a large scale as water recycling and reuse is the only way for a sustainable management of the world’s water.


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U.S. oil boom to extend into 2015, risks high: IEA

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 11 Jul 2014, 18:36:03

U.S. oil boom to extend into 2015, risks high: IEA

Global oil demand growth will accelerate next year as the world economy expands and will again be met by rising supplies from the United States and Canada, further eroding OPEC's market share, the West's energy watchdog said on Friday.

But the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that risks to oil production in several regions remained acute.

"Supply risks in the Middle East and North Africa, not least in Iraq and Libya, remain extraordinarily high," the IEA said. "Oil prices remain historically high and there is no sign of a turning of the tide just yet."

"Whether in crude or product markets, there is little room for complacency," it added.

North Sea Brent crude oil hit a nine-month high above $115 a barrel in June as a Sunni Islamist insurgency swept across northwestern Iraq, taking control of large parts of the oil producing country and shutting down its largest refinery.

The oil market has weakened over the last month but remains nervous about further supply shocks. Brent was trading at around $108.20 a barrel by 0730 GMT on Friday.

Making its first forecasts for 2015 in a monthly report, the IEA which advises major consuming nations on energy policy, said it expected global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, up from 1.2 million this year.

"Newly industrialized and emerging market economies are once again forecast to lead the gains," it said.

The world's second largest oil consumer, China, will see oil demand growing by 4.2 percent, up from 3.3 percent this year, while the largest oil user, the United States, will only see gains of 0.2 percent to 19.1 million barrels per day, up from a growth of 0.6 percent this year.


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Re: U.S. oil boom to extend into 2015, risks high: IEA

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 11 Jul 2014, 19:41:06

Not to piss down their leg and call it rain but predicting a continuation of the boom for another 6 to 12 months isn't exactly sticking their necks out too far. LOL.
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Re: U.S. oil boom to extend into 2015, risks high: IEA

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 12 Jul 2014, 09:56:56

Even then they may get a surprise. This past week has seen considerable softening in energy prices due mainly to less worry about Iraq oil and the oil previously locked up in Libya coming back on stream. With the US/Iran strife starting to ease off I wouldn't be surprised to see that oil come back on stream. If Brent drops below $100 (which is possible) then I think you could see WTI back in the eighties. Current production would continue but a lot of new projects would get shelved I think. That would mean a fairly quick drop in production (remember the steep initial declines in shales) to the point where the all the production is sitting in the flat part of the decline curve. If gas prices drop much more then the situation is exacerbated, given much of the shale liquids that produce at high rates have a lot of associated gas which currently can be sold at a decent price to help the economics out. And then the cycle begins again.

Just one view, of course, but geopolitics are not always predictable.
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Re: U.S. oil boom to extend into 2015, risks high: IEA

Unread postby BobInget » Sat 12 Jul 2014, 13:02:42

This week's understatement: "but geopolitics are not always predictable".

Not kidding here, as World Cup 'play' ends Sunday (Germany 2/1 ?)
Arab, Persian Worlds could swing into action. Hundreds, perhaps, thousands of disenfranchised, unemployed, young men and a few women are preparing to defend Iraq, Syria and Gaza.
The war has spilled over into Lebanon. Israelis are shelling Lebanese border villages today.

ISIS has been busy recruiting World Wide and in Yemen, Libya, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Europeans are entering the war zone through Turkey. The lure, besides glory is oil money. When born onto a dead end world as these young men see it, this cluster F is their main chance
This is going to be a long drawn out conflict that could last years.
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Re: U.S. oil boom to extend into 2015, risks high: IEA

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 12 Jul 2014, 23:42:57

rockdoc123 wrote:This past week has seen considerable softening in energy prices due mainly to less worry about Iraq oil and the oil previously locked up in Libya coming back on stream.

Libyan protesters shut down Brega oil port: state firm NOC
TRIPOLI Sat Jul 12, 2014
(Reuters) - Protesters have shut down the eastern Libyan oil port Brega, state firm National Oil Corp (NOC) said on Saturday, days after the government celebrated the reopening of major ports following almost a year of blockage.

NOC spokesman Mohamed El Harari said the state-run Sirte Oil Co would have to shut down its production of 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) if the protest by state oil guards continued, without being more specific about timeframe.
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Re: U.S. oil boom to extend into 2015, risks high: IEA

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 13 Jul 2014, 10:05:38

yeah saw that .....Libya had just opened up the ports and now shutdown again.

I guess that is what I meant by unpredictable geopolitics. :cry:
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