Tanada wrote:Given the last 9 years of anemic to non existent economic growth that green zone seems hopelessly optimistic. When I first joined this looney bin back in 2005 I thought we were dead set for the yellow zone because I have seen humans historically speaking connive their way through one disaster after another. Unfortunately after 9 years of following the topic closely I have seen little if any movement towards adaptation for an orderly contraction.
Sounding pretty doomy there T, LOL
The shark-fin is kinda my worst nightmare too. It is the whole basis of The Fan or the Slide discussion from a way back.
"Orderly contraction" assumed (I think) the immediate onset of a forced decline in which the oil companies simply accepted the fact there was nowhere left to drill, so they stopped looking. I'm pretty sure that is what all the TOD crew anticipated, otherwise why would they have forecast a 3 or 4 or 5 percent annual decline when that is the underlying decline of existing wells?
What we got instead was a huge push to find new oil and or sorta-oil and to exploit the higher prices to go back and extract what was previously unaffordable oil. The net effect is to pull supply forward as in this blast from the past artist's [sic] conception: