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THE Hedge Fund Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: National Death Spirals & Hedge Funds

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 18:52:47

It's looking to me like the resource depletion issue is going to matter if/when we come out of this savage financial tailspin we're in. Commodity prices are plunging. It's very possible, imo, that we never will. This is it, the Big One.
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Re: National Death Spirals & Hedge Funds

Unread postby holmes » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 19:37:51

PenultimateManStanding wrote:It's looking to me like the resource depletion issue is going to matter if/when we come out of this savage financial tailspin we're in. Commodity prices are plunging. It's very possible, imo, that we never will. This is it, the Big One.

Yes once the electronic 1's and 0's ponzi digital fantasy land ends reality (natural resources on the ground) will have to be dealth with.
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Re: National Death Spirals & Hedge Funds

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 25 Oct 2008, 05:10:16

This is the beginning of the end. Interesting how you bring up the hedge fund world. Hedge funds and other means of stashing off-shore money have played a huge role in preventing inflation via their virtualization of money. They have been just as caught by the crisis as the rest of us. They are going bust in droves. There isn't going to be any hyper-inflation, not across the board. Some asset classes will see no rise in price post deflationary shake out because the competition necessary for such rises will have a hard time materializing.

That isn't what you were asking, though. I think what you are referring to is the activity of the rich getting out of less safe investment instruments and into safer instruments, through what can be properly termed legitimate hedge activity, that is to say fleeing uncertain assets for the security of the US dollar. I guess it depends upon what sort of asset classes are involved (whether a country is losing its future or only a speculative excess) and how the mechanism is going through (whether the rush out is predominantly a certain type of money, m1, m2, m3) as pertains to that country as to what sort of immediate effect it will have.
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Re: National Death Spirals & Hedge Funds

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 25 Oct 2008, 14:07:43

evilgenius wrote: Hedge funds and other means of stashing off-shore money have played a huge role in preventing inflation via their virtualization of money.
Virtualization is a computer tech term, but what does it mean in a finance context?
There isn't going to be any hyper-inflation, not across the board. Some asset classes will see no rise in price post deflationary shake out because the competition necessary for such rises will have a hard time materializing.
Could we have hyperinflation in, say, food, while cars and houses continue deflating or stay the same? In this case we could see $50,000 for a loaf of bread and a luxury car at the same time. Maybe this is an extreme example but it doesn't seem possible to have hyperinflation in just some assets but not others. Inflation, sure, but not hyperinflation. Maybe you could be more explicit and give some examples so that we can better appreciate what you are trying to say.

That isn't what you were asking, though. I think what you are referring to is the activity of the rich getting out of less safe investment instruments and into safer instruments, through what can be properly termed legitimate hedge activity, that is to say fleeing uncertain assets for the security of the US dollar. I guess it depends upon what sort of asset classes are involved (whether a country is losing its future or only a speculative excess) and how the mechanism is going through (whether the rush out is predominantly a certain type of money, m1, m2, m3) as pertains to that country as to what sort of immediate effect it will have.
Sometimes I'm glad I'm not a genius. I wasn't asking anything. I just read an article about how some hedge funds are making money by betting against certain currencies. Evidently this is harmful to the victim countries. Sort of like Deutsch Bank getting caught in naked short selling practices whereby they make a lot of money destroying companies.
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Re: How to close a hedge Fund

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 26 Oct 2008, 01:06:51

In any event, he was clearly a smart thief who enjoyed picking the low hanging fruit. He said so. A personality like that cares no more for his investors than he does for the rubes he cheats on trades.


I agree, RE.

This is an incredibly bizarre letter from someone in his position. Then he starts going on about hemp, and that just makes it all smell tinfoil to me. But I guess this letter checks out as genuine?

But really, if you are going to make an exit with a boatload of cash.. well, that is something one wants to do quietly, for a number of reasons.
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Re: How to close a hedge Fund

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 26 Oct 2008, 01:35:40

Sixstrings wrote:
In any event, he was clearly a smart thief who enjoyed picking the low hanging fruit. He said so. A personality like that cares no more for his investors than he does for the rubes he cheats on trades.


I agree, RE.

This is an incredibly bizarre letter from someone in his position. Then he starts going on about hemp, and that just makes it all smell tinfoil to me. But I guess this letter checks out as genuine?

But really, if you are going to make an exit with a boatload of cash.. well, that is something one wants to do quietly, for a number of reasons.


Besides the clearly bizarre stuff aout hemp and marijuana, you have to look at the TIMING of his exit. It was less than a week really before the projected collapse of hedge funds due to the collapse of the Yen Carry Trade (also noted on the board), not to mention the still out there issue of how the derivative market is going to be resolved.

Now, would you really think that any Hedge Fund manager who could pull off 200% return rate on his investments was not carrying some HIGH RISK stuff in the portfolio? Nobody could do this with a Balanced Investment Strategy, which is what we are informed here by market experts is the best way to manage your money.

So it seems to me to be obvious, this fellow made big bets which were paying off when the market was singing, he did grasp what was wrong with it and so made good bets until the day he saw it was going to all go south. Then he bails, hands BACK the portfolios (gives back the "money") to some other broker in the company to figure out and walks off with a tidy profit on his trades before the whole thing tanks.

This guy was clearly a Cowboy in the Wild West Market, exactly the kind of guy that dug us into this mess to begin with, yet some here think of him as some kind of Hero Smart Trader who got out while the getting was good. Well he did, but he left his investors hung out to dry, about guaranteed. Maybe we will find out about it someday, but I doubt it. His theft was relatively small potatoes here. Just a bit part player in theft on the grand scale.

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Hedge Funds

Unread postby InToWishin » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 11:14:39

Remember when oil hedge fund sellers were taking a bath? Now that we are on the other side of the super-spike how many people are still playing $70 or $90 or whatever for oil because they bought into hedge funds? What will happen when those hedge funds expire and they can purchase oil much cheaper?
Last edited by Ferretlover on Tue 10 Mar 2009, 13:17:17, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Hedge Fund Thread.
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Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby Jotapay » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 18:34:30

Like I posted several times a while back, The 2008 Jotapay Investment Strategy was: Guns, Gardens, Food, Ammo and PMs. A scooter and 6 months supply of gasoline in the garage doesn't hurt either.

Article Link
During the final months of 2008, as the financial markets imploded, talk on trading desks turned to food and water stockpiles, generators, guns, and high-speed inflatable boats. “The system really was about six hours from failing,” says Gene Lange, a manager at a midtown hedge fund, referring to the week in September when Lehman went bust and AIG had to be bailed out. “When you think about how close we were to the precipice, I don’t think it necessarily makes a guy crazy to prepare for the potential worst-case scenario.”

Preparations, in Lange’s case, include a storeroom in his basement in New Jersey stacked high with enough food, water, diapers, and other necessities to last his family six months; a biometric safe to hold his guns; and a 1985 ex-military Chevy K5 Blazer that runs on diesel and is currently being retrofitted for off-road travel. He has also entertained the idea of putting an inflatable speedboat in a storage unit on the West Side, so he could get off the island quickly, and is currently considering purchasing a remote farm where he could hunker down. “If there’s a financial-system breakdown, it could take a year to reset the system, and in that time, what’s going to happen?” asks Lange.


More story in the link....
Last edited by Ferretlover on Tue 10 Mar 2009, 13:39:16, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Hedge Fund Thread.
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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby davep » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 18:50:38

Shit, have they been reading Po.com? 8O
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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby cipi604 » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 19:51:20

We welcome the hedge funds to a hard cold sudden reality ... let them eat cake.
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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 19:57:26

Mildly arrogant on the part of the investment bankers. "If my hedge fund collapses, so will the ENTIRE WORLD!"

8)
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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby Syeer » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 00:21:40

cipi604 wrote:We welcome the hedge funds to a hard cold sudden reality ... let them eat cake.
or death?
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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby Cloud9 » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 07:54:12

When the serious money people start looking outside the traditional avenues of protection and start looking to their own devices, that is a serious comment on the stability of the system. The irony of it is, if this were a bunch of rednecks they would be listed as nut cases. Now that these ideas are being considered by the money movers, it is seen as an astute hedging of bets.
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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby bratticus » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 08:07:50

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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby bratticus » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 08:09:37

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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby Revi » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 08:42:41

It's interesting that those guys who are so concerned about risk are coming around to the doomer philosophy.

Scary.
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Re: Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns...

Unread postby Specop_007 » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 09:29:07

Shiiiit....And if that 6 hours had passed what would they have done? Really? I'd bet MY stockpile that THEIR stockpile involves half a tank in the Beemer and a fridge full of caviar. Right. I dont think anyone seriously thinks hedge fund managers have guns, months of food and water and inflatable high speed boats...... :lol:
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Another hedge fund ponzi scheme uncovered

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 17 Jan 2009, 01:41:13

Investors in a Sarasota-based hedge fund could be out $350 million, and the man behind it has vanished.
Managers of the fund are telling clients that their money is gone, and they do not know if any will be recovered.
Fund principal Arthur G. Nadel, a prominent player in Sarasota social and philanthropic circles, disappeared this week. His wife, Peg, filed a missing person report with law enforcement after finding a suicide note.

Investors — from individuals to the Sarasota YMCA Foundation — in the funds branded Viking, Valhalla and Scoop were stunned this week to learn they may be victims in what could become the largest investment swindle in Southwest Florida history. Despite the carnage on Wall Street last year, investors had been told their investments earned more than 8 percent as of November.

Some are already calling it a “mini-Madoff,” after accused investment scammer Bernard Madoff of New York, who has been accused of creating an alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme that yielded similarly large percentage returns. “I feel abused. I feel beaten. I don’t know who to believe,” said Dr. Brad Lerner, who expects to lose nearly $730,000 in an IRA fund with Nadel and Moody.

Neil V. Moody, the president of Viking Management, declined to respond to interview requests. In a statement issued Thursday to investors, Moody confirmed the funds appear depleted. “Unfortunately, just yesterday afternoon we became aware of an extremely serious situation suggesting that the funds may have virtually no remaining value,” Moody wrote.

Moody, who lives part time in Evergreen, Colo., has told several investors interviewed by the Herald-Tribune the funds value totaled $350 million. He said he has contacted the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and “all appropriate authorities” to report the situation.

Moody is telling clients that Nadel did all the fund trading, and that Moody had no idea anything was wrong until this week. Nadel, 75, and Moody, 70, operated under the name Scoop Management Inc. in a double storefront at 1816 Main St., across from the Bank of America building. Management appeared in a state of turmoil. Peg Nadel and son Geoff Quisenberry said they could not comment on the size of the company’s assets under management, the number of clients, how much has been lost, or even whether it is accurate to call them a hedge fund operator.

“The way I want to be represented is we are totally open and cooperative with all our clients and the authorities, and that includes the SEC,” Peg Nadel said. “We have nothing to hide. But until our counsel has a statement prepared for us to make public, we cannot comment on what is happening here.” She and Quisenberry both denied reports that employees were emptying out the office.

Link
Last edited by Ferretlover on Tue 10 Mar 2009, 13:50:22, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Hedge Fund Thread.
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Florida hedge fund manager disappears. The next Madoff?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sat 17 Jan 2009, 23:09:57

Florida Fund Manager Missing; Clients Say Money Gone

Arthur Nadel, a hedge-fund manager in Sarasota, Florida, has disappeared and clients are concerned they may have lost hundreds of millions of dollars, according to law enforcement officials.

Nadel, 76, is president of Scoop Management Inc., which oversees funds including Valhalla Investment Partners LP. He was reported missing three days ago after he called his stepson, Geoff Quisenberry, and told him to go to his house where he had left a note, Lieutenant Chuck Lesaltato of the Sarasota County Sheriff’s Office said yesterday in a telephone interview.
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Re: Florida hedge fund manager disappears. The next Madoff?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 17 Jan 2009, 23:32:37

I beat you to this one, SPG. ;) If you could, merge mine with yours. My thread was called something like "Another hedge fund ponzi scheme uncovered."

As for the issue at hand.. I find the parallels very interesting. This fellow is even older than Madoff, this one's downright elderly -- and we're supposed to believed he single-handedly ran a $350 million ponzi. Right.

Unlike Madoff, this latest elderly schemer has absconded. What happened with Madoff had to have an impact on him.. I wonder if he saw the writing on the wall, and just left the country with a big chunk of that $350 mil.

UPDATE EDIT:
They found his car at the airport. Surprise surprise!

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