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THE Goldman Sachs Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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THE Goldman Sachs Thread (merged)

Unread postby dukey » Wed 27 Sep 2006, 23:08:16

http://deconsumption.typepad.com/decons ... _empt.html
Goldman Sachs [on July 12] tweaked the composition of their “benchmark” Goldman Sachs Commodity Index [GSCI].
Prior to Goldman's revision of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in July, unleaded gas accounted for 8.45% (dollar weighting) of the GSCI. Now unleaded gas is only 2.30%.

So What’s Wrong With This? As Bill King points out, “Goldman's changes probably induced arbs, commercial hedgers, and other traders to sell September and October unleaded gasoline future contracts to avoid possible (settlement, delivery, etc.) problems. September futures expired in August; October contracts expire September 29. So unleaded gasoline prices collapsed in August and September.”

I would like to “restate” what Mr. King said: What this means folks, is that hedge funds and institutional money that “TRACKS THE INDEX” were FORCED TO SELL 75% of their gasoline futures to conform with the reconstituted GSCI. And if anyone hasn’t noticed the timing of the price of the gasoline price collapse…just in time for November’s Mid Term Elections!

So don’t be fooled into believing that potential energy shortages have “magically been solved.” In all likelihood – much of the recent decline in the price of gasoline we have all “welcomed” has been the result of paper tricks being played on what amounts to a wealthy flock of sheep. But in the meantime, filler up!"
Last edited by Ferretlover on Tue 04 Aug 2009, 21:33:58, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Merge thread.
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 00:49:54

*continues working on his I-told-you-so diatribe*
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby max_power29 » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 02:14:48

Zardoz, I keep wondering if they are going to let the low prices roll through christmas in order to throw a bone to the retailers; and as a bonus use the retail sales figures as a nother indicator they can use to proclaim the strength of the house of cards to the sheople. So if the prices don't start rising mid-november, just wait until after new years.
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 02:30:50

max_power29 wrote:...So if the prices don't start rising mid-november, just wait until after new years.

Yeah, we'll see how they play this. You may be onto something.
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby IslandCrow » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 03:47:29

Looking at my charts of the 20 day moving average, where there has been drop of about $15 from the peak, and putting it together with the above article suggests that: speculators can add between 20% and 25% of the price of oil

With this sort of variation spotting peak oil from the market figures gets very very cloudy. :cry:

Still if $60 seems to be the current base this is still way up from the highs of 2004 when Brent crude got into the low $50s.
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby Doly » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 04:31:06

IslandCrow wrote:With this sort of variation spotting peak oil from the market figures gets very very cloudy. :cry:


I suppose you can always make a statistical hypothesis test: are these figures sufficiently different to be attributed with a good amount of confidence to anything different from the natural variance of the markets?

If you download a trial version of SPSS, you may come up with some interesting conclusions. Any volunteers?
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 05:28:18

Doly wrote:
IslandCrow wrote:With this sort of variation spotting peak oil from the market figures gets very very cloudy. :cry:


I suppose you can always make a statistical hypothesis test: are these figures sufficiently different to be attributed with a good amount of confidence to anything different from the natural variance of the markets?

If you download a trial version of SPSS, you may come up with some interesting conclusions. Any volunteers?

I was an actuary in a former life, and because of that experience I can eyeball the lack of variation in the recent drop in oil and gas prices, compared with less-recent volatility. Tell me where to get the raw data on gas and oil prices for the last decade, and maybe I'll take a shot at it.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby Polemic » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 12:29:50

...The battle was, of course, between "the old establishment and the nouveau riche." The old establishment's financial structure was Republican to the core, while the Jewish investment bankers and conglomerate builders were strongly represented in the Democratic party, though they often hedged their bets with campaign donations to both sides. Even so, the Nixon administration immediately directed the Justice Department's antitrust division against what has been called the "Jewish-cowboy connection," that is, the Wall Street financiers and Texas oil men. The Jewish-cowboy connection, according to G. William Domhoff, who coined the term, contains some oil companies (e.g., Amerada-Hess, Tidewater, Kerr McGee, Halliburton), airlines (American, Braniff, Continental), movies (Paramount, 20th Century Fox, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, [MGMJ, and "best of all,... consumer goods and merchandising where Sears, Jewel Tea, Gimbel's, Macy's, City Stores, Allied Department Stores head a star-studded list.

Jews and Money: The Myths and the Reality, Gerald Krefetz, Ticknor & Fields, New Haven and New York, 1982, p. 12.


Jewish Banking and Financial Manipulation
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby Chaparral » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 12:46:48

I got out when the stuff dropped to 19400 for the Sept contract. I am staying out of everything except a few grain contracts until the elections have passed. Things smelled funny.
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Re: Goldman Sachs and the Manipulation of Gas Prices

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 28 Sep 2006, 19:06:53

EIA

Tell me where to get the raw data on gas and oil prices for the last decade,


I think you can get back to 1984 with this.
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Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 11:29:08

It's good to be king:

Goldman profit up on banking, gains

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the largest investment bank by market value, said on Tuesday that its quarterly profit rose 93 percent on investment gains, banking fees and strong trading results.

Goldman capped off what is expected to be a record year for Wall Street as fiscal fourth-quarter net income increased to $3.15 billion, or $6.59 a share, for the three months ended November 30, from $1.63 billion, or $3.35, in the year-ago period. Net revenue rose 47 percent to $9.41 billion.
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby firestarter » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 11:55:12

Hey, Zardoz, it's because they work harder and are smarter than the rest of us :roll: Over at Clusterfuck Nation, Kunstler lets us in on an angry rant on the subject:

Kunstler's rant
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby lateStarter » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 15:05:27

I liked the part where the top 50 at GS will EACH get a nice $25 million bonus check this $MAS... Not bad...
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby Novus » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 16:47:33

firestarter wrote:Hey, Zardoz, it's because they work harder and are smarter than the rest of us :roll: Over at Clusterfuck Nation, Kunstler lets us in on an angry rant on the subject:

Kunstler's rant


Yes, they are a lot smarter then us. They have convinced the world to turn over their livelyhoods to them and get nothing in return excpt their contempt.
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby Niagara » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 23:22:45

lateStarter wrote:I liked the part where the top 50 at GS will EACH get a nice $25 million bonus check this $MAS... Not bad...

Exactly. The 2006 stock market bull run was driven by rich bonus incentives.

Once they're paid out for the year, look out below. Watch the markets crash starting in the new year.

Soon the downgrades will come pouring in. I can just imagine it. The talking heads on the tube and all the financial anal-ysts will be talking doom and gloom, stock bubble, armageddon, head for the exits, take your profits, sell sell sell...

And GS will short the crap out of the stocks they've been touting and make more millions on the way down.
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 23:34:32

Well, I'm glad I work there.
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 13 Dec 2006, 00:19:36

128shot wrote:Well, I'm glad I work there.

I'm sure you are. I wish I did.

Just curious: How many hours do you work in an average week?
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby jupiters_release » Wed 13 Dec 2006, 02:45:01

Have a friend who works at GS, only 26 years old, low down on the pole, making $160K/year but constantly working.
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby Zardoz » Sat 16 Dec 2006, 11:37:28

Yes, I really do wish I worked for Goldman Sachs:

Corks popping on Wall Street

At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., employees will earn an average of $622,000 this year, thanks to record profit of $9.4 billion.

That's the average for the whole outfit, including secretaries, clerks, assistants, new hires, etc.???

Oh, my...

The outsize paychecks are a reflection of a boom in takeover activity and a robust stock market, which translate to bigger profits for investment banks and stock brokerages.

Even so, "it's hard to wrap your mind around these numbers," said Ed Durkin, director of corporate governance for the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Goldman Sachs: It was a very good year

Unread postby lateStarter » Sat 16 Dec 2006, 13:50:30

What are all these guys (and gals) doing with their bonuses? I saw another related headline where the top knob at Morgan Stanley was getting a $48 million bonus... I actually hope they are splurging on Maserati's and houses in Bali. Maybe they are just re-investing their digital 1's and 0's in more of the same...

I know what I'd be doing with it...
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