Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Goldman Sachs Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: And here's what Goldman sees in the oil industry...

Unread postby FireJack » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 12:58:53

We all know that poorer countries are having problems with supply but how long until the richer countries start seeing shortages?
User avatar
FireJack
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 503
Joined: Wed 16 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: And here's what Goldman sees in the oil industry...

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 13:28:53

Here's an earlier thread about the same subject:


GS Updates Superspike Report/Sees $85 Oil Year End [Sep 17]
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic32229.html
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction just h

Unread postby lexicon » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 18:45:34

Here's a link to their prediction from 2005 for what would happen to the price of oil in the next few years:

Published on 30 Mar 2005 by MSN Money. Archived on 31 Mar 2005.
Goldman Sachs: Oil Could Spike to $105

by Reuters staff

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil markets have entered a ``super-spike'' period that could see 1970's-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research report.

Goldman's Global Investment Research note also raised the bank's 2005 and 2006 New York Mercantile Exchange crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40.

These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters.

``We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a ``super spike'' period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return,'' Goldman's analysts wrote.


http://www.energybulletin.net/5017.html

That prediction came true today:

Oil settles above $105 on weak dollar
As forecasters cut their oil demand growth forecasts, crude prices fluctuate after briefly spiking to $105.97 a barrel.


Last Updated: March 6, 2008: 3:52 PM EST

NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil futures rose to another record close Thursday, boosted once more by the dollar's continuing slide to new lows against the euro.

At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices extended their own advance toward record levels. The national average price of a gallon of gas rose 0.7 cent overnight to $3.185, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices are following oil higher, and are expected to peak this spring well above last May's record of $3.227 a gallon.


http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/06/markets ... /index.htm
"Old elephants limp off to the hills to die; old Americans go out to the highway and drive themselves to death with huge cars".
-Hunter S. Thompson
User avatar
lexicon
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue 08 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 19:49:15

The part about reducing consumption didn't happen. Free credit in response to rising prices keeps the SUV's flowing out of the dealers.
People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
User avatar
heroineworshipper
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 890
Joined: Fri 14 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Calif*

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby joeltrout » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 21:03:46

heroineworshipper wrote:Free credit in response to rising prices keeps the SUV's flowing out of the dealers.


Maybe the next bailout will be for SUV owners who can't afford gas.

joeltrout
joeltrout
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1297
Joined: Wed 19 Sep 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby patience » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 21:07:47

If wheat stays around $20/bu, look for SUV's at yard sales so J6P can buy bread.
User avatar
patience
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 3180
Joined: Fri 04 Jan 2008, 04:00:00

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 22:22:51

I belive I've posted the actual 'suprespike' report a year or two back. Actually it is not a prediction that oil would hit $105 but a possibility that it could in the right political circumstances.

Actually those circumstances don't exist right now, so yes I am stating that even the superspike report underestimated, well, the PO superspike we now find ourselves in.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 23:59:21

I don't see the demand balance going the right way either for the pricing to adjust as they mention. At least not until we get much higher gas/diesel/crude prices. We are only in the very beginnings of slowing the growth at the moment.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4378
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby lawnchair » Fri 07 Mar 2008, 00:07:33

Just for giggles, a few of our "superspike" threads from three years ago this week.

http://peakoil.com/fortopic6485.html

http://peakoil.com/fortopic6440.html
At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
User avatar
lawnchair
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 866
Joined: Wed 20 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby BigTex » Fri 07 Mar 2008, 01:31:38

"When we wrote that thing I had no idea that I was going to be the Treasury Secretary when oil hit $105 a barrel."

Image
:)
User avatar
BigTex
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3858
Joined: Thu 03 Aug 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Graceland

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 07 Mar 2008, 05:47:01

I think the "superspike" included the assumption that the dollar was still around 120, which it was in 2005. If our currency had lost so much of it's value this would only be ~$65. But, thanks to the government printing their way out of debt, we get to see $100+ oil. Coincidentally, this is also a way to curb the consumption of the world's largest oil consumer.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
User avatar
yesplease
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3765
Joined: Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 07 Mar 2008, 10:35:15

yesplease wrote:I think the "superspike" included the assumption that the dollar was still around 120, which it was in 2005. If our currency had lost so much of it's value this would only be ~$65. But, thanks to the government printing their way out of debt, we get to see $100+ oil. Coincidentally, this is also a way to curb the consumption of the world's largest oil consumer.


Rising US trade deficits, mostly caused by increased oil imports and higher oil prices, forced the Fed into a policy that reduced the value of the dollar. Also stimulative government policies worked to create a housing credit bubble.

So the the reason the dollar is falling is mostly because of oil, and policies to adapt to the rising price (that have failed miserably in the US hosuing market and in Iraq).
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction ju

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 09 Mar 2008, 10:35:11

DantesPeak wrote:
yesplease wrote:I think the "superspike" included the assumption that the dollar was still around 120, which it was in 2005. If our currency had lost so much of it's value this would only be ~$65. But, thanks to the government printing their way out of debt, we get to see $100+ oil. Coincidentally, this is also a way to curb the consumption of the world's largest oil consumer.


Rising US trade deficits, mostly caused by increased oil imports and higher oil prices, forced the Fed into a policy that reduced the value of the dollar. Also stimulative government policies worked to create a housing credit bubble.

So the the reason the dollar is falling is mostly because of oil, and policies to adapt to the rising price (that have failed miserably in the US hosuing market and in Iraq).
What evidence do you have that the dollar is falling because of oil?
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
User avatar
yesplease
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3765
Joined: Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:00:00

Predict 2008 pay for Goldman CEO

Unread postby seahorse2 » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 11:56:57

We always try and predict the price of oil, but, let's try to pick the pay for Goldman Sachs CEO for 2008.
FYI, the CEO of Goldman received a pay package in excess of $100 million dollars for 2007 (not bad). Reuters
So, any guesses as to how much he will make this year? and will 2008 pay package exceed 2007? Keep in mind, that despite the housing downturn, with inflation running conservatively at 4%, his pay needs to go up just maintain that 1000 square foot house and keep eating all those canned beenie weenies.
User avatar
seahorse2
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2042
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Predict 2008 pay for Goldman CEO

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 12:04:59

seahorse2 wrote:We always try and predict the price of oil, but, let's try to pick the pay for Goldman Sachs CEO for 2008.
FYI, the CEO of Goldman received a pay package in excess of $100 million dollars for 2007 (not bad).
Reuters


Depends.... Does he have a lot of wheelbarrows, or will his secretary be buying them as needed?
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
Ferretlover
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 5852
Joined: Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Hundreds of miles further inland

Re: Predict 2008 pay for Goldman CEO

Unread postby gnm » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 12:44:32

Nah they will just pay his piggy ass in gold bullion...

:-x

-G
gnm
 

Goldman Sachs Report

Unread postby Alanintx » Mon 26 May 2008, 09:38:33

I have not seen this report posted anywhere. I think this is as good a forecast for near term and long term prices and the problems in supply/demand as I have seen. It makes a compelling case for a near term pullback, but a long term increase to $148/bbl.
http://www.odac-info.org/sites/odac.pos ... _Watch.pdf
User avatar
Alanintx
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Goldman Sachs Report

Unread postby yull » Mon 26 May 2008, 11:01:58

I wouldn't be surprised at a pullback, to perhaps say $100. The price is not going to go up steadily after all, there will be spikes upwards and spikes downwards. The trend is definitely sharply upwards though.

I think we will reach $148 this year, perhaps within just a few months. Things suggest that the terminal decline in word oil production is almost here, if not already here. The signs lately are ominous and once the decline sets in even the price increases of the last few years are going to be outdated with regards to predicting the price from here. There are already signs the oil price rises have entered a new, different phase, more rapid than before, suggesting a tipping point into the new reality many have been predicting for all these years.
User avatar
yull
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu 03 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Great Britain

Re: Goldman Sachs Report

Unread postby Ferretlover » Mon 26 May 2008, 11:08:45

Nice find, Alanintx.
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
Ferretlover
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 5852
Joined: Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Hundreds of miles further inland

Re: Goldman Sachs Report

Unread postby Alanintx » Mon 26 May 2008, 11:14:04

Ferretlover wrote:Nice find, Alanintx.

Thank you. While a newbie here, I am trying to contribute in a meaningful fashion.
User avatar
Alanintx
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 38 guests