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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 20 May 2017, 21:06:52

Thanks, ol. But some sources had already announced the 7.5 B figure about a month ago (just look at the top of the last page of this thread. Pretty much impossible to know exactly what week or even month we hit that milestone, but it's pretty clearly one that we hit this year.

Latest figures (that I could find without trying very hard) on global population growth rate, though, are down to 1.06%: https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... os/xx.html

Though Worldometers has it at 1.11, so that also seems to be a hard figure to pin down with any precision. But in any case, all sources seem to show a decrease in the growth rate over the last couple years.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 22 May 2017, 15:54:24

https://theoldspeakjournal.wordpress.co ... ne-planet/

“Population overshoot is behind many of our most pressing economic problems. But the best intelligent response faces terrible obstacles….Virtually every major problem, from climate change and wars to mass migrations and resource scarcity has its root in too many people. Economics are not immune. The lowered prospects of the politically potent white working class, for example, have much to do with millions overseas who can do the same jobs for a fraction of the cost. When you hear about theories of “secular stagnation” and the like, think 7.5 billion.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 22 May 2017, 17:31:13

http://www.euractiv.com/section/agricul ... ort-finds/

Dependence on food imports threatens developing countries, report finds
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby peripato » Tue 23 May 2017, 01:21:22

Well it's all too little, too late now - the damage has already been done. Plus, no one wants to curb population growth, except for a few "hippy freaks", and for the entire globe even to live at the level of the average European, let alone American, would require another 3 pristine earths (5 if you elevated lifestyles to American standards of gluttony and wastefulness). So take your cue accordingly. When the music stops and the lights go out we shall have a swift and bumpy collision with the real meaning of "sustainability".
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 23 May 2017, 17:58:33

@ peripato.......Sir David ATTENBOROUGH is a "hippy Freak"?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby peripato » Tue 23 May 2017, 18:11:09

kiwichick wrote:@ peripato.......Sir David ATTENBOROUGH is a "hippy Freak"?

May as well be, since people do no want to hear that message.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 23 May 2017, 19:45:07

@ peripato..........and yet everywhere women have the choice , population growth rate declines
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby peripato » Tue 23 May 2017, 20:13:54

kiwichick wrote:@ peripato..........and yet everywhere women have the choice , population growth rate declines

Perhaps, but the problem is that the people are already here, especially ones of child-bearing age, all adding to the overshoot of the earth's carrying capacity for humans. When we can no longer hold back the limits to growth there will have to be a reversion to the mean.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 24 May 2017, 06:41:24

@ peripato........I agree....and I would suggest we are already seeing that.....considering the rate of global growth since 2007 has consistently failed to reach the expectations of most economic forcasters

however perhaps there are signs that we can adapt .....Japan being a possible example ......with their population falling (currently only slightly).....they still hold the position as 3rd largest economy by GDP
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 22 Aug 2017, 16:02:21

World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision

we already have a world population of about 7.6 billion, and the median value for 2050 may well be around 9.8 billion:

https://www.un.org/development/desa/pub ... ision.html

The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today.

With roughly 83 million people being added to the world’s population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline.

See also:
https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

But...

Why We Don’t Need Coercive Population Control

https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/dont-nee ... n-control/

Demographers have estimated that simply eliminating unintended births would lower Earth’s projected end-of-century population by 2-3 billion people, and this could be accomplished with exclusively voluntary policies. If such a reduction would be inadequate or too unlikely, there are other ways to reduce fertility without coercion. As my co-authors and I have noted, people can be influenced by media and by economic incentives to reduce the number of children they otherwise would have had.

It is likely due to similar cultural and economic changes in developed nations that have led to their falling fertility rates in recent decades. Along with improvements in gender equity, healthcare access, and family planning education, non-coercively influencing attitudes and choices about family size could be a powerful tool for reducing population growth.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 13:21:58

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... r-children

Want to fight climate change? Have fewer children

Next best actions are selling your car, avoiding flights and going vegetarian, according to study into true impacts of different green lifestyle choices
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 06:50:41

Kiwi,

The sad truth is the population can't fall fast enough.

Well it will fall, but through very unsavory processes. :cry:
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 07:31:36

Karma as a concept actually came about I believe from observing natural consequences. We can see this at work in the dynamics of overpopulation. There are consequences when a species goes into severe population overshoot that causes severe stress to the external environment. These "stress" consequences shift over to the species that caused the overshoot during the correction. This is the "karma" so to speak.

Another religious concept that westerners are familiar with applies as well:

Do unto others as you would have them do unto you definition. A command based on words of Jesus in the Sermon on the Mount


In the bible this focuses on the relationship between two individuals. It is easy to apply this to a species relationship with the natural world and here with human overshoot the application is clear. Do unto your environment as you would want the environment do unto you.

In ecological terms this actually somewhat functions, the environment being more benign and forgiving when a species is within carrying capacity and then becomes malign when treated with disregard.

I bring up both the concept of Karma and the biblical verse because in both cases the historical context has referred to ones individual actions within human relationships.

Perhaps the severity of consequences coming our way will shift these familiar religious concepts over to applying them to our environment.

I sometimes read posters who propose that we might find some painless way through the correction of human overshoot and over population. This wishful thinking ignores the fact that the more you abuse the external environment the more the abuse will bounce back at you.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 09:09:13

@ newfie........"prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" .....Niels Bohr.......possibly ....
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 12:42:30

Kiwi,
While I'm impressed by your optimism I would like to hear a argument to support it.

IMHO we are heading for something South of 1,000,000,000 humans. Maybe you have a much higher number in mind.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 15:51:56

I think most of us on this site have reached a consensus that a pretty severe die off is certain to occur. We just seem to be hashing out the details of how, when and a educated guess as too how many people will the Overshoot Predator end up taking
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 18:18:44

@ newfie......I tend to swing between optimism and pessimism......but generally I think we are heading towards more difficult times overall......and widespread problems , particularly in the tropical and subtropical regions

The optimistic side of me hopes that we will eventually get our act together and a , possibly much reduced, human population along with a viable biosphere survives
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 19:47:42

Kiwi,

Much the same, I have some dogged optimism which shows up in my cranky posts. If I was 100% pessimist and completely given to it, then I could accept our fate as an accomplished fact. My brain says it is, my heart rebels.

Thus I sometimes, often maybe, sound schizophrenic.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 01:15:33

Newf, have you heard of the Gramsci quote: "Pessimism of the mind, optimism of the spirit" or something like that?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 05:01:18

No, but I feel it.

The problem with the the "optomisim of the spirit" bit is that it too frequently blocks the mind bit and leads to denial. "That nice young Mr. Hitler would never do such a thing." You ever hear that?
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