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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 19:02:22

"...found the[m] to be a bunch of xenophobia and racists..."

As opposed to this place????!!! :lol: :lol: :P :P
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 00:41:03

https://www.populationmatters.org/docum ... _index.pdf

Sustainable global population according to this estimate ...... 4 billion
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 04:10:30

Kiwi,
Thanks. I disagree but can't absorb this right now. Embarking on a 1,000 mile 2 day drive in about 10 minutes. Will read latter.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 13:12:22

Wow! Drive safely!
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 13:36:34

[url][/url]
Newfie wrote:Kiwi,
Thanks. I disagree but can't absorb this right now. Embarking on a 1,000 mile 2 day drive in about 10 minutes. Will read latter.

It's a shame you could not do the trip by boat. So much more pleasant and comfortable :)
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 19:26:50

I did last year. Took three months!

Driving it's about 1,500 miles Philly to our cabin, plus a 7 hour ferry. We took the boat up the Hudson, Erie, St Lawrence and around the Northern Pennisulla, a longish route. A bunch more miles but a neat trip.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 19:38:41

kiwichick wrote:https://www.populationmatters.org/documents/overshoot_index.pdf

Sustainable global population according to this estimate ...... 4 billion


OK, I get where they are coming from. It's just a restatement of the Global Footprint.

There are a couple of issues with this.
First, I believe the GF people have stated that their calculation is conservative. That is things are worse than stated. Can't recall where I saw that.

Second, it assumes that everything is shared equally and that all resources are used to the maximum extent, neither of which is remotely true.

So this 4 billion is the theoretical maximim in a perfect world.

In a pragmatic or realistic world people will waste, resources will be unused, resources will be depleted. In a real world much ecological damage is being done already and more will be done before we are through decreasing the carrying capacity. It also is based on yesterday's world. Before the effects of climates change have been in or pirated. I'll stick with my rough figures as being practical.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 03:32:06

@ newfie......totally agree .....unless we wake up in the very near future 4 billion looks optimistic
and I don't see change happening anywhere near fast enough
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 05:14:19

Kiwi,

And it is all so obvious. At least to us.

I often feel like we are living in the openings by scenes of some old time B grade sci-fi movie, where the professor discovers the danger and no one will listen.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 11:25:15

Newf, me too!

Meanwhile:

Africa's Population Will Soar Dangerously Unless Women Are More Empowered


"The U.N. has in recent years continually raised its midline projection for 2100 world population, from 9.1 billion in a 2004 estimate to 11.2 billion today. Almost all of the unanticipated increase comes from Africa."

Fertility rates are not dropping as expected in Africa, while death rates have fallen. The result is that the vast majority of population growth will be in the Africa, mostly in the some of the poorest countries in the world. UN estimates now put the Africa population at between 3-6 billion in 2100 depending on growth rates - previously they had assumed 2 billion. Of course, the probability of extensive social collapse and widespread famine before we get there is extremely high. With an extremely young population, a lot of violence can be expected.

North Africa seems to have lowered its population growth rate to 2%ish, and South Africa is now below 2%. In between though, very high growth rates - many in the specific areas that climate change will negatively affect. A good example - Nigeria already has 186 million people (under 100million 20 years ago), and with a 2.6% growth rate will double every 28 years - so nearly 400 million by the mid 2040's. Uganda's population is growing at over 3% a year (doubles every two decades, now at 40 million)

In 40% of the world's nations, the birth rate is already at or below replacement level (2.1) while in Africa it is still at 4.7.


Also a big issue for possible population migration: "As many as 37 percent of young adults in sub-Saharan Africa say they want to move to another country, mostly because of a lack of employment."


https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... empowered/
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:20:21

dohboi wrote:Newf, me too!

Meanwhile:

Africa's Population Will Soar Dangerously Unless Women Are More Empowered


"The U.N. has in recent years continually raised its midline projection for 2100 world population, from 9.1 billion in a 2004 estimate to 11.2 billion today.

The so-called 'demographic transition' always depended on an unsustainable and expensive 1st World lifestyle.

The UN's latest projection is equally idiotic. Even it depends on current growth rate, which is equally unsustainable and expensive . . . even by 3rd world standards. When the oil runs out (or is stolen via the US military) Africa's meager quota (for diesel irrigation and petrol mopeds) will disappear. Then it's back to a simple Olduvai life-style.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:39:55

Yeah, pretty much.

Olduvai Style...great name for a fashion magazine! :)
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:46:54

dohboi wrote:Yeah, pretty much.

Olduvai Style...great name for a fashion magazine! :)

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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:57:33

Nice! There's yer first million right there, p! Selling the latest post-crash styles to us dumpy doomsters. :-D :-D
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The overpopulation debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 19:47:43


Overpopulation has been debated since British economist Thomas Malthus famously warned in 1798 that humans could reproduce far faster than they could increase their food supply. But since Malthus’s time, world population has grown from 800 million to 7.5 billion today. Yet worries about overpopulation are back. In part that’s because lots more people are on the way, complicating efforts to deal with problems like climate change and water scarcity. The UN forecasts that in the near future the world will add about 83 million people annually. By 2100, world population will grow to 11.2 billion. On this edition of Global Journalist: a look at the growth of human population and the debate about its risks. Joining the program: Pamela Chirwa Banda, a Zambian demographer who also works for Zambia’s Ministry of Education. Corey Bradshaw, senior fellow in global ecology at Flinders University in


The population debate
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7.5 Billion People — That’s a lot!

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 22:00:38



As the inimitable Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” And indeed it is. Some guesswork is always involved and surprises crop up that change the course of events. Yet, it is probably clear to most of us that the world is likely to become an increasingly and unpleasantly crowded place as we move along through the 21st century. About 7.5 billion people share the earth with us right now, in 2017. That’s around twice the number that was here in 1970, 47 years ago. Roughly every 13 years since 1960, about a billion more people have come onboard, and this pattern continues. And we didn’t even arrive at our first billion until 1804, after existing for 75,000 years or so. The more folks we have, the more we’re going to get. It can’t go



7.5 Billion People — That’s a lot!
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 30 Oct 2017, 05:39:05

Yup, until some existential event happens or we choose to stop having children at greater than the replacement rate the world is going to be crowded, especially in places where crops once grew abundantly without artificial fertilizer and machinery like India and China.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 30 Oct 2017, 07:29:13

Tanada wrote:Yup, until some existential event happens or we choose to stop having children at greater than the replacement rate the world is going to be crowded, especially in places where crops once grew abundantly without artificial fertilizer and machinery like India and China.

Well that existential event may not be too far away
https://www.livescience.com/58891-why-2 ... tters.html
On land, an increase of 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) would almost double the water deficit and would lead to a drop in wheat and maize harvests,according to NASA.
Moreover, global warming doesn't just increase temperatures; it also threatens the food, water, shelter, energy grid and health of humans, he said.
All of these threats are just around the corner, deMenocal said. The Earth is anticipated to exceed the 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) milestone in about 15 years — between 2032 and 2039, deMenocal said. The planet isexpected to surpass the 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) benchmark between 2050 and 2100, he said.

Also, the soils in many places are practically dead from the clearing of the supporting plant/animal climax ecosystem in those places to plant monoculture crops and overuse of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. See Final Empire a book written by William Kotke. Not to mention ongoing soil erosion as forest have been cut down wholesale. So, again climate change is a severe threat to large organisms in an already degraded Earth
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 30 Oct 2017, 09:51:19

Well, I dunno, all this weeping for Gaia just gives me the urge to make some chemtrails and fly to Greece. Whatcha say, Planty, will ya join me?
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Prince William warns that there are too many people in the w

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 11:42:54



Rapidly growing human populations risk having a "terrible impact" on the world, the Duke of Cambridge has warned. The Duke said that as a result, wildlife was being put under "enormous pressure" and called for the issue to be addressed with renewed vigour. His concerns echo those of his grandfather, the Duke of Edinburgh, who in 2011 advocated “voluntary family limitation" as a means of solving overpopulation, which he described as the biggest challenge in conservation. His grandson, royal patron of the Tusk Trust, told the charity’s gala dinner in London that measures needed to be taken to save certain animal populations. “In my lifetime, we have seen global wildlife populations decline by over half,” he said. "We are going to have to work much harder, and think much deeper, if we are to ensure that human beings and the other species of animal with


Prince William warns that there are too many people in the world
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