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THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: US$2 gasoline makes a comeback in the US

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 04 Feb 2016, 12:30:12

cars and machinery have become more fuel efficient


Hmm... Could this be part of Monte's much-vaunted "demand destruction"?
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Re: Has the gasoline price 'crush' began?

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 11:30:02

Well Prices in the Toledo, Ohio area are back up to $2.759/gal how are things in your neck of the woods?
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Re: Has the gasoline price 'crush' began?

Unread postby Cog » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 11:39:48

Tanada wrote:Well Prices in the Toledo, Ohio area are back up to $2.759/gal how are things in your neck of the woods?


$2.49/gal and pretty stable.
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Re: Has the gasoline price 'crush' began?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 15:00:56

Cog wrote:
Tanada wrote:Well Prices in the Toledo, Ohio area are back up to $2.759/gal how are things in your neck of the woods?


$2.49/gal and pretty stable.

Same here in central KY (mostly near $2.49).

OTOH, oil prices have actually been relatively stable the past couple months,relatively speaking.

And if you look for the past year, since Sept., the upper range for prices has been around $50.

And if you look at, say, a 3 year chart, you have the "before" prices of around $100, and then the "recent" prices of roughly $50, broadly speaking.

So now the question is if prices can break meaningfully above the $50 range and manage to stay there for a significant length of time.

If not, then gasoline roughly in the current price range should be available. And people in the first world will very likely keep buying many very low mpg cars and trucks and driving the demand up (in addition to 3rd world demand, of course).

sarcasm:

Of course, with most of the MSM assuring us that oil fracking has solved the long term oil supply problems (until electric cars replace the whole fleet, any time now), what could possibly go wrong? And those articles talking about climate change -- well, the "facts" on that are just distractions from evil, ignorant, pointy headed, left wing conspiracy driven scientists, so those can be safely ignored.

And if in doubt, just vote for HRC as she will surely save us.

:end sarcasm

We collectively SO deserve the coming world of pain the planet is going to inflict on us.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Has the gasoline price 'crush' began?

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 05:19:57

The last time I put gas in my Honda Insight was May 29th, and gas was $1.99/gal.

YTD I've consumed 268.883 gallons and spent $191.60.

I love being retired and not commuting ~92 miles/day five days a week in greater Austin traffic!

I want to check the "worst US cities for traffic". Austin was in the top ten the last time I checked.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: Has the gasoline price 'crush' began?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 08:11:25

Average price in San Jose is $2.92 for regular grade, paying cash. A year ago it was $3.47, we are catching a break this year.
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Re: Has the gasoline price 'crush' began?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 15:10:37

Tanada wrote:Well Prices in the Toledo, Ohio area are back up to $2.759/gal how are things in your neck of the woods?


paid $2.05/gal for regular this morning. I already miss the days of $1.75/gal. Maybe come this fall, if inventories stay inflated from the glut.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 04 May 2018, 13:39:53

Just filled the tank for $2.859/gallon at my local station, highest it has been here in a long time.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Has the gasoline price 'crush' began?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 04 May 2018, 15:53:20

AdamB wrote:
Tanada wrote:Well Prices in the Toledo, Ohio area are back up to $2.759/gal how are things in your neck of the woods?


paid $2.05/gal for regular this morning. I already miss the days of $1.75/gal. Maybe come this fall, if inventories stay inflated from the glut.

Crude (WTI) has risen from $45 to $69.75 over ten months. That amounts to a $0.70 per gallon base cost increase. If that tend continues you would expect gas to reach $3.50/ gallon a year from now. Trends do change of course but at present there is no event or pressure evident that will obviously change the current trend.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 04 May 2018, 19:43:23

Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 May 2018, 20:25:39

Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

We produce more like 10 MBPD now (passed 8 MBPD as of 2014), but yes, we're no where near energy independent -- which is one of the reasons I want to see green energy sources succeed.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... production
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 May 2018, 20:28:13

Tanada wrote:Just filled the tank for $2.859/gallon at my local station, highest it has been here in a long time.

I'm seeing similar prices in central KY now. With the recent price trend and summer driving on the way, we can't be far from $3 a gallon many places, unless the trend changes right away.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 May 2018, 00:38:12

Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 05 May 2018, 09:55:39

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M




Wont that depend on the fracking/shale production not declining? I heard the decline rates will be steep.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 May 2018, 13:22:56

Armageddon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M




Wont that depend on the fracking/shale production not declining? I heard the decline rates will be steep.

That is why it is a possibility not a certainty. Individual fracked wells do have a steep decline rate but the total fracked production depends on the number and quality of new wells being drilled to replace old. Just when they will run out of new places to drill is the question but I'm betting (on very little real evidence) that it will be several years down the road and in the mean time higher gas prices and inroads by BEVs will reduce US demand by more then our net imports today. That advice and $3.00 will buy you a cup of coffee. :)
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 05 May 2018, 17:25:43

Armageddon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M


Wont that depend on the fracking/shale production not declining? I heard the decline rates will be steep.


that was the theory a lot of us were buying into in 2013 and 2014. Fortunately it turned out that when prices collapsed in late 204 and bottomed out in January 2016 we got a dry run on just how fast those fracking fields would decline. It turned out that when drilling built back up to about half the peak rate in early 2017 the amount of fracked oil entering the market stopped declining and stabilized. Then as prices rose and fracking rates increased we crossed the threshold and today the quantity of fracked oil entering the market has been on a steady up swing for about 8 months now.

So we learned a valuable new bit of information. As fracking rates decline below a threshold the production rate starts dropping significantly, however the stable point for the number of total wells drilled and completed in a month is only about 60 percent of the max rate.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 05 May 2018, 19:33:01

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M

Wow. Thanks for pointing that out, vts.

I knew we were exporting oil, but I had no idea it had ramped up that much.

It looks like for the past 12 years or so, the total exports of oil and oil products have really been rising persistently.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TEXUS2&f=M

For some reason, I was thinking that was a fairly recent phenomenon -- I think the fact that it was supposedly illegal in most cases until recently.

Re stories like this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/busi ... texas.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 06 May 2018, 06:56:53

We have always exported finished product with the refineries acting as a sub contractor between the crude oil producer and the final customer. For that matter the ban on exporting American crude has always had some exceptions to it as it was more a political statement then a practical matter. Alaskan crude has been shipped to Japan from the start and North Dakota and Montana crude sometimes get refined in Canada. The oil companies maximize their profits and we have plenty of gas etc. Whats not to like?
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 06 May 2018, 11:04:08

Just some factual clarity about US exports of finished refinery products and crude oil. From the EIA since the early 90’s to 2004 refinery exports held constant around 800k bbls/yr to 900k bbls/yr. Since 2004 they have ramped up significantly to around 3.5 million bbls per year.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... pexus2&f=m

As just pointed out there has never been an effective ban on exporting US oil. But the volume had been small until recently: around 280k/day to almost nothing. But since 2012 it has increased up to over 1.6 million bbls per day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... rexus2&f=m

Of course, these are gross numbers…not net. Obviously, we import much more oil then we export. And a significant amount of oil we produce/import is the feedstock for the refinery products we export. Current gross oil input to US crude oil distillation units is around 16.3 million bbls per day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 06 May 2018, 12:29:24

Well, just one more item showing that fuel prices aren't high enough in the US to keep up with the rest of the world on AGW mitigation.

Fuel prices are rising again just as automakers pull back on sedans

...
For now, though customers see no need to push toward more fuel efficient vehicles.

"There is really no demand for more fuel efficiency," Lindland said. "Consumers are very happy with the fuel efficiency they are currently enjoying."


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/05/fuel-pr ... edans.html

1). NO sign first worlders "can't afford oil", even as oil gets to about $30 above the supposed ETP MAP price, and big SUV/truck sales persist, and people continue to move AWAY from more efficient sedans.

2). Kind of ironic, even as the UK says it will ban even HEV's like the Prius in 2040 in in the news recently.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -from-2040

3). Again, in the face of this, not moving to a CO2 tax on motor fuels ASAP to hasten people moving away from gas guzzlers is madness. If people don't care about $3ish dollar gas, then maybe $4, $5, $7, etc. would do the trick. The vast majority of office workers don't need a 7 person giant SUV or truck to get to work or buy groceries. For those who TRULY do to do their job, some kind of business tax deduction could help.
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