[sparky]

.
It is a geological fact that at least half of the world deposit of hydrocarbons are made up of heavy and extra heavy crude
for you and me that means bitumen , scarcely different from pitch , road tar and such
the reserves are quite impressive and as this is the left over of badly capped deposits ,often accessible from the surface
the best known deposits are the Canadians tar sands , the Orinoco belt and others in Mexico , California , Estonia and many other places , this resource has been known since the Summerians 4000 years ago
the American hemisphere is singularly blessed with this crap , making it a cornucopia of energetic wealth

Refiners and producers love it not , in fact they hate the stuff ,
dealing with it has send many an oil engineer crying with frustration

they would rather get their hands on anything else ,
go to the end of the world and drill the very bottom of the oceans before having to work with it .
It can be done but it's trouble , mucho trouble ...all trough the production chain
a pain to extract , to transport ,to process , unfriendly environmental impact , with lousy economics .

still one has to deal with the world as it is not as one wishe it.

peak oil is peak easy street , the future is crap processing , peak crap is looming over the far horizon

[dissident]

The tar sands reserves are hypothetical as far as production is concerned. There is lots of smug talk coming out of Alberta how they will be pumping 6.5 million barrels per day by 2030. Such numbers are pulled strait from the a**. Only a couple of years ago they were talking about 3.5 million barrels per day by 2025. Nothing has changed, no new technology and no new investment that could explain such jump in output. Current output is 1.5 million barrels per day and we have had major development projects put on multi-year hiatus.

The future is a trickle from the dregs. The supposed amount of these dregs in the ground is not an indicator of production since it is totally unlike conventional production where a single Saudi well can pump tens of thousands of barrels per day.

[Pops]

The curve for XH is long and low according to JL

[ROCKMAN]

d - I agree but on the basis of what I've pointed out before: any projection of future production of any trend that doesn't include the specific price projection is meaningless. Same with the shale projections: if one assumes $40/bbl how much new production would we see? At $120/bbl?

IOW no one's prediction of future production from any trend can be more accurate the prediction of future oil prices. And I've yet to see even one person that has been CONSISTANTLY correct in that regard. Sure... some folks hit it right for some short period. But these future production predictions are going out 20+ years. So who has correctly (I'll allow +/- 15%) predicted oil prices over a 20 year period?

[Paulo1]

Alberta is well....Alberta. I remember working there for a year almost 40 years ago. The boasting is pretty much the same and their Province is still running a deficit. I pity the poor politician who finally implements a sales tax.

I just wanted to say that the Oil Sands reserves spread into Saskatchewan and are supposedly greater on that side of the border. I also would like to mention that without it the US economy would likely dwindle and the world price of crude would be much higher due to market forces. (Even with today's short-lived downward blip). The oil sands will be producing long after LTO is done.

People bitch about bitumen constantly. I understand. But it is a heavier world these days for sure. Unless you only ride a bike and have a mana tree in your backyard, I have to ask just one thing? What's in your tank, today? When you need it, it's priceless.

Paulo

[sparky]

.
Jean Laherrere is an outstanding professional , his production numbers have been better than any other I've seen
consistently , for years .
I give the man respect , if he estimate peak Xheavy at 15 mbd , it's certainly an estimate worth listening to
however , does anyone has an idea why the production cannot be ramped up to double that , like 30mbd ??
is there some impediment to extraction transport or processing ?

P.S. while digging for info , I found this most excellent link ,
http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/addoil ... 7NBEHO.pdf

[ROCKMAN]

Paulo - I will forgive the ignorance of your implication just this once. For years folks from Alberta have traveled to Texas to attend "boasting" seminars. They've done well but still have long way to catch up with us.

[dissident]

Thanks Paulo. The Saskatchewan production will be all new and maybe large by 2030. But the information was dished out as if it was going to be Alberta's production. You are right, there is no getting away from oil. The whole of modern civilization is built on it and alternatives are boutique sources that cannot be scaled to maintain BAU.