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THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 11:47:10

pstarr wrote:Tanada, he also posted (Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, 2013 Royal Society ), a more recent article by the team who tried to warn us (to no avail) 30 years ago of the same . . . collapse. It's very timely.

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 5.full.pdf

I updated the link. Care to discuss?

and this, from NASA
NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 0914000615

Maybe it is time you get on board, and consider that perhaps an optimisitic spin on things might no be correct? Perhaps this is the chaos all around?


Care to include an excerpt and an opinion about that excerpt for discussion? Posting nothing but links is pretty useless as I just spent a lot of time trying to make Cliffhanger understand. I have a limited quantity of lifespan and an even more limited quantity of waking hours, if I spent all my time reading everything at every link everyone posts around here I would not have time to do anything else, and I would still be ignorant of what particular material the person posting the link thought was most crucial for discussion.
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 13:08:40

I never said I was a rocket scientist. I am a chemist at a Midwest university. .And I know you are jealous of my education because you keep bringing it up. Which shows you must have zero education...you are just a paid shill for the oil industry. And I can tell they are paying shit these days...And like I said Rockbrain. If you dont stop i will post more peer reviewed studies that will make you go cry to the mods again...You don't want to wet yourself again like yesterday do you?


Well actually you claimed to have a PhD in Quantum Chemistry which is another word for molecular quantum mechanics, rocket scientist is used in jest by many for such lofty endeavors. So now you are just a chemist? Which is it? As to me having less education? My guess is I had finished my PhD, had written a number of peer-reviewed papers and taught tensor transforms to third-year civil engineering students while you were in diapers. And 30+ years working in the oil and gas industry certainly gives me the level of knowledge necessary to discuss related issues on this site. You, on the other hand, apparently have zero relevant knowledge and apparently, your chemistry background doesn’t extend into understanding oil organic geochemistry nor do you seem to be comfortable arguing thermodynamics with the ETP crowd which one would expect someone with your background would immediately migrate towards. But the main giveaway here is the language and demeanor you use on this site. I’ve spent my entire career around colleagues with advanced degrees….we do not converse like juvenile uneducated trailer trash where that seems to be your go-to mode.

Oh and please keep posting those long sets of links, I see that Tanada seems to be losing patience with you so it probably won’t be long before you find yourself banned.
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 19:33:55

Mr. Tanada

Kudos to you, sir, for your time and efforts administering this blog.

Personally, I'd be more inclined to both read and contribute - when able - if there were not the presence of so many posters who - for whatever reason - put forth such unrealistic stuff on an ongoing basis.

When the more knowledgeable commenters are challenged by sincere seekers of valid information/validation, all followers of this site are given an opportunity to learn, to evaluate, to think through some of the important hydrocarbon issues of the day.

Your efforts to keep folks on a constructive path seems both daunting and, occasionally, unsuccessful.
Thanks again for your efforts.

(By the way, as someone who has avidly followed this "Shale Revolution" from the earliest days of the Montana/North Dakota Bakken activities, we are in the early innings of a multi decade long process of expanded LTO production.
The rapid, drill times combined with precise targeting is being complemented by diversion processes, micro proppants, and - most recently - dramatic initial production numbers utilizing elevated formation pressure by greatly restricting the flowback process.
The Uinta, Powder River, Rogersville, Tuscaloosa Marine, and others are entering the orbit of economical development in the coming years.

Natgas?
Centuries worth at rock bottom pricing. (sorry, Rockman).
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 22:24:19

Your efforts to keep folks on a constructive path seems both daunting and, occasionally, unsuccessful.
Thanks again for your efforts.

I second that emotion (apologies to Smokey Robinson):razz: :P
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 23:33:25

pstarr wrote:
Tanada wrote:Care to include an excerpt and an opinion about that excerpt for discussion? Posting nothing but links is pretty useless as I just spent a lot of time trying to make Cliffhanger understand.
I included the most relevant opinion and link I can imagine (I updated Cliff's faulty link). The Ehrlichs, married couple of scientists predicted the current state of the world more than four decades ago. We all know who the Ehrlichs are, and don't need reminding.


True. Ehrlich was the guy who lost the bet, because he doesn't know much about economics. And who claimed that England would suffer some massive starvation dieoff..and it didn't. And received many awards for being politically correct, while always being factually wrong.

Sort of like bell shaped curves for oil production, except this were people pretending they could guess the future.

So they HAVE predicted more collapse, except a half century later now? Do they explain why, in their new work, how they were able to compensate for the error in their ideas from a half century ago? because if they haven't, they are no different than a run of the mill kick the can peak oiler like Colin Campbell, who went at least 20 years playing that game until recently...he appears to have become more quiet.
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Is The EIA Overestimating The U.S. Shale Boom?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 20:09:34


The American shale boom may be overstated by the U.S. Energy Department, according to a new MIT study that suggests the agency may be over-attributing a rise in shale drilling to technological advances. “The EIA is assuming that productivity of individual wells will continue to rise as a result of improvements in technology,” MIT researcher Justin B. Montgomery told World Oil. “This compounds year after year, like interest, so the further out in the future the wells are drilled, the more that they are being overestimated.” Instead, lukewarm oil prices have forced oil majors to drill only in easy-to-access areas, located mostly in the Eagle Ford and Permian basins in Texas, and the Bakken formation in North Dakota. This has led to an exaggerated increase in the number of active wells, and a hyperbolized narrative of growth in the shale industry, the


Is The EIA Overestimating The U.S. Shale Boom?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 21:16:30

Fracking has been great for my wallet, but what comes next? So far nearly all successful fracking has been in America, not a world wide tide like conventional oil was. What is waiting in the wings to be the Next Great Thing?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 13 Dec 2017, 20:50:06

Sub - As pointed out numerous times there are two very important distinctions that separates the US from other regions on the planet. And THE most important IMHO is the nature of the companies doing the drilling. US activity is dominated by public oil companies. Pubcos that are obsessed with increasing booked reserves y-o-y. And obsessed for good reason: reserve improvement is THE primary metric Wall Street uses to set stock prices. It's impossible for Wall Street to measure a companies true profitability. But with companies using SEC regs it's very easy to measure reserve growth. I'll tell the same true story. Years ago I drilled 4 horizontal wells in producing reservoirs. This allowed increasing the reserve base. But the cost of the wells exceeded the value of the new reserves. IOW while increasing reserves and increasing company production rate 5X the drilling effort LOST MONEY. But thanks to Wall Street the stock increased from $0.75/share to $3.50/share. And we didn't lie to the SEC: if you looked at the details of our financials the details were there. But Wall Street didn't care: reserves increased y-o-y.

Secondary: the US dominates the drilling/frac'ng infrastructure. At one time Chevron was talking up the shale potential in Poland. Poland that, at the same time as the US had 1,800 rigs drilling, had a total of 6 drilling rigs. But since the Poland shales were a bust those 6 rigs were more then enough to handle demand.
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THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 13 Dec 2017, 22:33:03

What is waiting in the wings to be the Next Great Thing?


there are those you hear about and those you don't.

The Vaca Muerta is already producing but is hampered by lack of proper regulations, lack of a competitive service industry and slow approvals in some of the provinces. The acreage is now held by about 6 or 7 companies with little in the way of drilling commitments forcing activity. Hence the pace is a lot slower than we saw in the US where there was huge competition amongst service companies and negotiations with royalty land holders forced a drilling schedule that was pretty aggressive. It is definitely economically produceable and once all the infrastructure is in place it will be very significant, especially in a country where they have been paying anywhere from $9 to $14 per MMBTU to import gas and LNG.

In the background and not well known to those who never worked there Algeria has been quietly developing shale gas and liquids in the Devonian and Silurian sources rocks for a number of years. The shale basins are immense but little is known about the extent of some of the production they have gotten from theses zones (Haliburton reported a few years ago on a couple of vertical wells that Sonatrach completed in the Devonian Meden Yaha Fm which produced at rates 6 - 8 times typical shale gas wells in the US. There is lots of infrastructure around, access to water (huge acquifer here) and Sonatrach basically owns it all (hence no rush to develop it nor any rush to make press releases).

Aramco has been gradually testing some of the deeper shales along with their deep Permian conventional Khuff gas project. Although the search for conventional gas in the Rub Al Khali has been less than exciting there is extensive shale deposits that match well with counterparts in the US and have tested gas. Recently SA has been pushing for more and more gas for their energy needs which will see an increase in activity in the unconventional side of things. They definitely have all the services they need to accomplish this it is really a will/need to be aggressive.

The same Silurian shales that are present in Algeria and provide a source for much of the discovered hydrocarbons are also present in the onshore Sirte Basin in Libya. Wells drilling to the basal Nubian sands in the basin have tested gas from these shales in the past. There has been almost zero exploration activity in Libya for the past 10 years and things don't look like they will change quickly but the resource is definitely there.

Northwest China Tarim basin is also a key area. The Chinese have been quite active there but do not report anything so at this point anyones guess is as good as the others. It is a huge area and the rock quality certainly compares with that from the better US basins.
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World Oil Supply Hits Year High, Boosted by U.S. Shale Surge

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Dec 2017, 23:30:41

Shale producers are roaring back to life, pushing the global oil supply to its highest level in a year and undermining OPEC’s efforts to rebalance the market through production cuts, the International Energy Agency said Thursday. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the IEA said the amount of crude oil on the global market rose by 170,000 barrels a day in November to 97.8 million barrels a day. The agency cited a surge in U.S. shale production and increased drilling and completion activity. ... WSJ


World Oil Supply Hits Year High, Boosted by U.S. Shale Surge
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 01:09:18

rockdoc123 wrote:
What is waiting in the wings to be the Next Great Thing?


there are those you hear about and those you don't.

The Vaca Muerta is already producing but is hampered by lack of proper regulations, lack of a competitive service industry and slow approvals in some of the provinces. The acreage is now held by about 6 or 7 companies with little in the way of drilling commitments forcing activity. Hence the pace is a lot slower than we saw in the US where there was huge competition amongst service companies and negotiations with royalty land holders forced a drilling schedule that was pretty aggressive. It is definitely economically produceable and once all the infrastructure is in place it will be very significant, especially in a country where they have been paying anywhere from $9 to $14 per MMBTU to import gas and LNG.


Thanx for the update about world fracking prospects. What I am looking for however is what comes after fracking? Is there some other source for crude oil to supplement conventional and fracking sources as we slide down the post peak slope?
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 01:19:41

Subjectivist wrote:What I am looking for however is what comes after fracking? Is there some other source for crude oil to supplement conventional and fracking sources as we slide down the post peak slope?


There's tar sands. But that isn't easy to produce on a large scale.

So it looks like after fracking comes Peak Oil.

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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 12:09:43

Is there some other source for crude oil to supplement conventional and fracking sources as we slide down the post peak slope?


I guess kerogen shales might be one. People have toyed around with the Green River shale for decades but as yet have not been able to come up with a viable economic extraction method. But they keep plugging away so eventually that nut will get cracked. There are similar kerogen shales in Morocco, a friend of mine had a company that was trying to make that work but was unsuccessful.

If I remember correctly Shell pulled out of the research into oil shale extraction a few years ago.

Places with large oil/kerogen shale deposits that are mineable: Israel, Jordan, Morocco, US, China, Brazil
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 13:29:06

I don't know the numbers regarding the residual oil remaining in conventional fields worldwide, but in the case of Ohio, specifically, the eastern half of the state is sitting atop a large amount of oil that cannot economically be recovered.
Reason why I mention that is because Cabot is rumored to be getting ready to drill way over in Ashland county, in north central Ohio.

There have been efforts - and some unsuccessful trials - over the years to induce some workable, pressure drive mechanism to get the known oil into the wellbore.
The fact that Cabot might be giving this another shot - if the speculation is correct - and if they have some success could be very interesting, to put it mildly.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 18:39:50

coffeeguyzz wrote:I don't know the numbers regarding the residual oil remaining in conventional fields worldwide, but in the case of Ohio, specifically, the eastern half of the state is sitting atop a large amount of oil that cannot economically be recovered.
Reason why I mention that is because Cabot is rumored to be getting ready to drill way over in Ashland county, in north central Ohio.

There have been efforts - and some unsuccessful trials - over the years to induce some workable, pressure drive mechanism to get the known oil into the wellbore.
The fact that Cabot might be giving this another shot - if the speculation is correct - and if they have some success could be very interesting, to put it mildly.


1. Oil production from conventional reservoirs seems to have pretty much peaked. Thats what all the furor over Peak Oil ca. 2005 was about. Since then the numbers for oil production from conventional fields have gone up and gone down a bit, but for more than 10 years now are pretty much where they were in 2005----its been called the "bumpy plateau" in oil production rate.

2. Cabot has acquired some leases and plans to drill and frack the Utica Shale in Ohio.

cabot-og-considers-drilling-in-ashland-county-oh-utica-shale

The area they are interested in was previously drilled and tested by Devon without any success.

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Shale Growth Hides Underlying Problems

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 12:18:34


All eyes are on U.S. shale as we head into 2018, with a growing number of analysts worrying that shale will spoil the oil price rally. Estimates of supply growth varying quite a bit, but directionally, everyone is in agreement: Supply is set to surge. However, there are some cracks in the shale complex that might not necessarily mean much in the short-term, but raises some questions about the long-term durability of shale output. According to Rystad Energy, there is empirical evidence that points to falling production in the Eagle Ford from some of the recently drilled shale wells. Everyone knows that shale wells enjoy an initial burst of output that is quickly followed by a precipitous decline within a few months. A driller must constantly drill new wells in order to grow production. The shale industry has boasted of higher initial production


Shale Growth Hides Underlying Problems
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 11:50:18

pstarr wrote:I don't see consumer demand and a higher oil price lifting tight-shale out of the peak-oil cost basement. Tight shale E&D requires at least $60 probably $70/barrel but we are already stuck at $50 because folks just don't want to pay more. So little or no new drilling . . . just fracting and completion of drilled fields. Those first gen shale fields have recently entered in their precipitous decline phase. The rest are soon to follow. So sure, fracting will get a second wind. Like the death rattle of an emphysema patient in the terminal care wing lol


Well Pstarr one year after what you said you could not see ever happening the WTI price has broken back over $60/bbl, even if only briefly.
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Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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The Shale Wonderland

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 17:56:11


The world was taken aback when oil prices fell dramatically early this year. We had grown used to oil at over US$100/barrel. To drop to about half was unprecedented. Many in the oil production business are desperately revising their budgets; the rest of us are starting to enjoy an improved cash flow. Of course, what happened was that the United States had started to produce oil and gas at an unforeseen rate. Prof Philip Lloyd's response originally appeared in Issue 1/2015 of our print magazine. The digital version of the full magazine can be read online or downloaded free of charge. Today it is producing nearly 10 million barrels of oil a day and Saudi Arabia is increasing its output in an attempt to put the US producers out of business and so drive a price increase. Today the US is producing


The Shale Wonderland
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