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THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 16:02:46

T - "That is the infill drilling I pointed out earlier..." And not just that. As times passes the cost to produce existing wells gradually increases. Combine that will gradually decreasing production rates you eventually reach the "EL" of a well...Economic Limit. And that is strictly a monetary metric. Had oil prices not increased: thousands of wells would have been plugged and abandoned in recent years. Wells typically never reach O bopd...they reach their EL. And depending on the price of oil that might be 1/2 bopd or closer to 5 or 6 bopd. Just as fewer strippers were P&A when oil was $100+/bbl many disappeared when oil dropped below $20/bbl in the late 90's.

And while some might think losing such minor oil producers wouldn't have an impact: they should bear in mind that 2009 almost 80% (286,000 wells) of all the US oil wells produced less then 10 bopd. And only 4% (13,500 wells) produced 50 bopd or more. IOW lower oil prices are going to have a much greater negative impact on the US then any other country.

BTW: stripper Eagle Ford Shale stripper wells tends to have much higher production cost due to the depth and water production. Which means the EFS stripper wells would get plugged sooner.

Data from the EIA:

http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petrosys ... table.html
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby sparky » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 17:07:46

.
The good thing about crude oil price crashes is that it enlighten somewhat the price
when the price crashed , all the producing fields kept pumping (cash flow matter)
but ,except for some legal or company related issue, drilling came to a stop
now the price has slowly and steadily risen .
after fools having lost a lot of money , serious people ,in the bleak light of day ,weigh their options .
Eagle ford was the last to crash and the first to restart , there is the transport to market issue but their break even price must be at 40 $/b , below it's OK to produce but not to drill
the Permian re-started drilling when the price got to a steady 45 $/b
So , that's the price right there .
I doubt if there is going to be a frenzy of drilling at 60$/b
it would take a sharp spike rise in price and a lot of amnesia
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 18:54:00

sparky wrote:.
The good thing about crude oil price crashes is that it enlighten somewhat the price
when the price crashed , all the producing fields kept pumping (cash flow matter)
but ,except for some legal or company related issue, drilling came to a stop
now the price has slowly and steadily risen .
after fools having lost a lot of money , serious people ,in the bleak light of day ,weigh their options .
Eagle ford was the last to crash and the first to restart , there is the transport to market issue but their break even price must be at 40 $/b , below it's OK to produce but not to drill
the Permian re-started drilling when the price got to a steady 45 $/b
So , that's the price right there .
I doubt if there is going to be a frenzy of drilling at 60$/b
it would take a sharp spike rise in price and a lot of amnesia


Interesting, presuming those numbers are dead accurate it seems likely that with prices holding around $53/bbl we might actually drilling enough now to balance the declines from existing wells, but the fracking and completions just havn't caught up yet.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 22:25:42

ROCKMAN wrote:As pointed out many times before the probability of such projections as seen in this chart CANNOT be assessed unless it is accompanied by the FUTURE OIL PRICE model it was based upon.


As has been pointed out many times before the EIA supplies this as well. One of, if not the only, organization that does it regularly.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 22:35:26

Tanada wrote:You keep repeating this statement that fracking projections were low, which is true, however there is also the fact that the EIA is rather notorious for its exuberant optimism about Deep Water and Conventional oil. They have for decades projected that USA conventional oil will suddenly slow its depletion rate and have a long tail that is virtually flat instead of falling at 2% to 7% per annum.


And so their overall predictions were low then, because their underestimate of the shale revolution was higher than their estimate than their others were lower? Okay, so net-net, they were still pessimmistic. It isn't as though post carbon institute even ventures a CLUE on oil production based on US consumption and supply, the changes in transport efficiency, the development of new and old plays, the interplay between renewable supplied electrical energy or natural gas powered generation, and so on and so forth. Even more ironic? The NEMs model is open source software, and people like the post carbon institute and some others don't care us it, for fear that it will just validate the fact that the EIA knows what they are doing.

Tanada wrote:It is fair to say that starting around 2004-05 the steadily increasing oil price caused a lot more low scale drilling to take place in the USA, and as the price continued to rise the increases in domestic drilling, frequently infill drilling in old tired fields, had the aggregate effect of slowing the USA decline rate. However right up until the shale boom took off in late 2009 the USA net production rate was in constant decline from around 1990 all the way to 2008, and the rise in 2009-2010-2011 was barely outside of the statistical noise until the 4th quarter 2011 when fracking oil flow started to have a real impact on USA production levels.
Image


Just about the same time that US ASPO showed up in Washington and proclaimed an energy crisis. You would prefer estimates that are pretty good but not perfect to bags of hot air that can't even get the direction right?

Tanada wrote:You should also be honest enough to notice that the high crude sale prices in 2006-2008 and again in 2010-2014 had a very real impact on USA oil production outside the fracking developments.


Oh yes, let us exclude the WHY things changed. No..I don't think so. Mr Reserve on this very website in 2006 was mentioning the power of unconventionals, so we can't even pretend that they weren't known in advance of their development, we can only claim that peak oilers didn't know about them, or didn't have the experience to understand what COULD happen.

It is like saying..."well...the recession of 2008 wouldn't have been all that bad if you just exclude all those bad loans that americans took out without any hope of paying, just ignore that and 2008 would have been great!".

Tanada wrote: That is the infill drilling I pointed out earlier, lots of old oil fields even here in NW Ohio were being given work overs to get whatever else they could out of the source rocks where nothing but shut in stripper wells remained in 2005.


So...you object to the idea that single handedly wrecked peak oil...that there is a strong production response to price?
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 23:26:04

Adam - "As has been pointed out many times before the EIA supplies this as well.". As the hman posted the EIA price projection above. And as thd Rockman responded to it above:

"...how often have you heard someone say this is what I predict will happen and here's the proof that I'm wrong." As the EIA oil price chart above shows they have a completely worthless projection of future oil prices proven by their own chart showing the previously unpredictable volatility of oil prices for periods of time much shorter then the future time line on the same chart.

IOW one should look at the EIA oil price prediction and immediately recognize their prediction has no merit at all. And given the relationship between oil prices and reserve development they should also immediately recognize the EIA prediction of future oil production rates is equally worthless.

Which goes back to my original point: find anyone's chart showing their optimistic projection of future oil production rates that also has their future oil price curve on the same chart. I doubt you'll find many examples since no one believes the can predict oil even 5 years out let alone 20+ years. Which is what must be able to do have any chance to predict future production rates.

Or to summarize all the above verbiage: the EIA projection of future oil production out to 2040 ain't worth sh*t. LOL. And they prove that with their oiol price prediction.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby sparky » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 05:06:12

.
The thing is that if fracking can increase its supply at 50$/b and provide the ultimate barrel
other large projects like deep oceanic , tar sands , Orinoco X heavy or arctic must consider this as the price of the competition for the foreseeable future ,
Sure the foreseeable depend a lot on the optimistic animal spirit of oil companies
but after the recent financial jolt they have in their corporate memories
my guess is that any new development project will be scrutinized with a jaunty eye
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 09:36:59

ROCKMAN wrote:IOW one should look at the EIA oil price prediction and immediately recognize their prediction has no merit at all.


Can you please provide the one that your billionaire boss man uses when he drills a well? Certainly he expects to make money when he drills a well, otherwise where would he get his billions, therefore to make that decision he needs 2 pieces of information, how much he thinks the well will produce, and his expectation of price in the future.

It would be nice to compare a billions winning price path to the one provided by the energy experts at the EIA.

It turns out that price paths are rare, and like opinions, everyone has one, but it also turns out that it takes cajones to hang yours out there, and no one appears ready to show theirs like the EIA. Of course, it might just be that they are one of the few, perhaps the only, organization around with the expertise and people and experts to take an honest crack at the issue. Other folks would rather just stay hidden, for fear of being called out for not being right.

the EIA knows they aren't right, saw their backcasting analysis at a conference last November. But when everyone else doesn't have the cajones to put their expertise to use, well, it isn't of much use.





Rockman wrote:Or to summarize all the above verbiage: the EIA projection of future oil production out to 2040 ain't worth sh*t. LOL. And they prove that with their oiol price prediction.


So what does the billion think prices will be, when he drills a well?
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 09:42:29

sparky wrote:.
The thing is that if fracking can increase its supply at 50$/b and provide the ultimate barrel
other large projects like deep oceanic , tar sands , Orinoco X heavy or arctic must consider this as the price of the competition for the foreseeable future ,


Oh boy. Back when the price first crashed, I believe I mentioned that the single most powerful thing that had just changed in oil geo-politics was the marginal barrel moving back within the US, and the Saudi's now having to defend market share for exactly that reason.

And that claim of mine, apparently now being born out in terms of price and US production, is exactly what has happened, and what you have noted above.

US oil production becoming world's swing producer...who ever would have thunk it?

sparky wrote:Sure the foreseeable depend a lot on the optimistic animal spirit of oil companies
but after the recent financial jolt they have in their corporate memories
my guess is that any new development project will be scrutinized with a jaunty eye


Oil company corporate memories includes those of us who went through the boom of the late 70's, the crash of 86, the fallow years and slow recovery during the 90's, the crash again in the late 90's, the resurgence during the 2000's, the crash of 2008, the resurgence of 2010, and the crash of 2014. Only the newbies don't understand what happens next, during a boom. Or what happens next, during a crash.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 10:41:50

sparky wrote:The thing is that if fracking can increase its supply at 50$/b and provide the ultimate barrel other large projects like deep oceanic , tar sands , Orinoco X heavy or arctic must consider this as the price of the competition for the foreseeable future.


We are in total agreement so far as this goes. We have yet to see just how much the current increase in drilling rates in the Permian and elsewhere will actually have on oil supply so I recommend we don't get the cart too far before the horse.

There are a lot of moving parts swinging around right now, for example the USA has a good month or so of excess crude supply in storage at this point in time. Also world demand is still growing. Also lots of conflicts are still taking place like the attacks in Nigeria by people who hate that government and the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Things seem to have greatly improved in Iraq, but is this just a lull or are they going to be steady higher level exporters? Things are still crazy in Libya and their exports are small compared to just a few years ago. Venezuela is a total mess, but still exports a lot of oil. It seems like people somehow got the impression the VZ oil is no longer being sold and exported, but that is not the case.

I think ultimately a great deal will depend on how much of the OPEC/Russia quota agreement is based on politics, and how much is based on actual physical constraints among the members? What I mean is, did KSA finally agree to the deal because cutting their output gives them a needed buffer, or are they just trying to stabilize the price so they can get the most benefit possible from their exports? What about Kuwait? Iran, at least in theory, peaked back in the late 1970's and they were producing at a pretty steady rate during the high price era before sanctions were imposed on their exports. How likely is it really that they can increase much above where they are today when they did not do so at $100/bbl in 2011?

Then we come to the good old USA. If $55/bbl is enough for fracking rates to balance fracking declines it transitions into the question, how many spots are left to frack at the current price? Is the fracking industry catching its second win and ready to run for another 25 years? Or is this just the last burst of energy in a sprint that ends in 2020?

Most if not all of these questions can not be answered with the facts we know today, and that means all our speculation is little better than poorly educated guesswork. Not that this will keep me or any of our other members from taking a shot at predicting the future :-D :oops: :twisted: 8O :-D
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 10:57:52

Adam - "...please provide the one {chart} that your billionaire boss man uses when he drills a well?" Chart? LMFAO! We use the same price expectation model every company, without a single exception, that the Rockman has worked for over the last 4 decades used: the then current oil price. Sometimes with a very minor inflation factor (a few % over years) and sometimes with a minor deflation factor if the then current price is very high. No: we never used a price over $100/bbl.

Again it's easy to understand why if one understands the NPV (Net Present Value) calculation all oil companies use in their economic analysis. Not only is the price of oil more the 4 or 5 years out only a minor factor even the amount of oil produced significantly declines in importance beyond that time frame. IOW, with the exception of Deep Water production that can take 5 to 8 years to sell the first bbl, no company makes drilling decisions based on oil prices more then a few years out.

And the price of oil 10+ years out? That subject has never come up with our owner...it has zero implications on our business plan. And given how the incorrect expectation of oil prices just a couple of years into the future devastated so many shale players it's easy to understand why. Remember this also bite us in the ass after we started up 7 years ago. We were focused on deep NG drilling and used the then current NG price. And the after spending $200+ MILLION saw NG prices drop significantly. What saved us was the high condensate yield reservoirs we targeted since oil prices were still high.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 14:59:05

Tanada wrote:
sparky wrote:The thing is that if fracking can increase its supply at 50$/b and provide the ultimate barrel other large projects like deep oceanic , tar sands , Orinoco X heavy or arctic must consider this as the price of the competition for the foreseeable future.


We are in total agreement so far as this goes. We have yet to see just how much the current increase in drilling rates in the Permian and elsewhere will actually have on oil supply so I recommend we don't get the cart too far before the horse.


Folks were already using data to answer this question months ago. Looks like more answer is in, than not, at this point.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=28772

Tanada wrote:Then we come to the good old USA. If $55/bbl is enough for fracking rates to balance fracking declines it transitions into the question, how many spots are left to frack at the current price? Is the fracking industry catching its second win and ready to run for another 25 years? Or is this just the last burst of energy in a sprint that ends in 2020?


The official US energy experts, same ones who underestimated the shale revolution, have already answered that question. But I won't post the same graph showing it, since by now everyone has seen it.

Tanada wrote:Most if not all of these questions can not be answered with the facts we know today, and that means all our speculation is little better than poorly educated guesswork.


There are no facts in the future. And the best guesswork is done by the professionals, particularly those who knew enough NOT to fall for peak oil claims of a decade ago. At this point, they might be the only folks with credibility, everyone else has already missed the wagon using the thumb in the wind method that was about as complex as peak oil predictions got, a decade back.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 15:10:34

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "...please provide the one {chart} that your billionaire boss man uses when he drills a well?" Chart? LMFAO! We use the same price expectation model every company, without a single exception, that the Rockman has worked for over the last 4 decades used: the then current oil price. Sometimes with a very minor inflation factor (a few % over years) and sometimes with a minor deflation factor if the then current price is very high. No: we never used a price over $100/bbl.


Well there you go. So he isn't any more right about oil prices than anyone else. And here I was all excited because I figured he had earned his billion in some method other than guessing as poorly as you assume the EIA does.

And yes, that escalation is also what the EIA does, you can see it in the trend in their price paths. And yes, I've seen the reserve calculations from the late 1970's where with that same escalation, people certainly used assumptions of price over $100/bbl.

Rockman wrote:Again it's easy to understand why if one understands the NPV (Net Present Value) calculation all oil companies use in their economic analysis. Not only is the price of oil more the 4 or 5 years out only a minor factor even the amount of oil produced significantly declines in importance beyond that time frame. IOW, with the exception of Deep Water production that can take 5 to 8 years to sell the first bbl, no company makes drilling decisions based on oil prices more then a few years out.


So..you are saying that the oil companies with offshore properties are the only ones able to predict oil prices 5 or 8 years down the road? Have you seen any of those, that we might compare them to the EIA estimates? Obviously they must be GENIUSES to get it right even that far out.

Rockman wrote:And the price of oil 10+ years out? That subject has never come up with our owner...it has zero implications on our business plan.


Who says it should? If you are using a PV10 it becomes irrelevant what you are making a decade down the road, the discounting takes care of that.

Rockman wrote: And given how the incorrect expectation of oil prices just a couple of years into the future devastated so many shale players it's easy to understand why.


Only for those who haven't been through a downturn before. Newbies, which the industry has quite a few of now.

Rockman wrote:Remember this also bite us in the ass after we started up 7 years ago. We were focused on deep NG drilling and used the then current NG price. And the after spending $200+ MILLION saw NG prices drop significantly. What saved us was the high condensate yield reservoirs we targeted since oil prices were still high.


So much for the billionaire "using only today's natural gas price expectations" for predicting quality then. Saved some of the shale players in the Marcellus as well, they (WV E&P's) were quite distraught with the Texas BEG for shorting their well economic assumptions by leaving out the liquids, got up and let them have it in public at AAPG in 2014.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 01 May 2017, 20:16:54

Someone mentioned the Vaca Muerta today so I was wondering if something new was up a googled it. Lo and behold, new investments pouring in...

Total’s decision follows the announcement by the Argentine Ministry of Energy and Mines of the “Program for Stimulation of Unconventional Gas Developments” which guarantees gas prices until 2021.

As part of the project, the Aguada Pichana partners (Total Austral S.A. 27.27%, YPF S.A. 27.27%, Wintershall Energia S.A. 27.27% and Panamerican Energy LLC 18.18%) have entered into a memorandum of understanding that includes an increase of Total’s participation to 41% in the Aguada Pichana Este project being developed. The agreement remains subject to the approval of Neuquen Province authorities.

Total Exploration & Production in Argentina
Total is a long-standing partner of Argentina. The Group has been present in the country for nearly 40 years and operates around 30% of the domestic gas production. In 2016, the Group’s share of production in Argentina was 78,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

On the CMA-1 concession in Tierra del Fuego, Total operates the onshore Ara and Cañadon Alfa fields and the offshore Hidra, Carina and Aries fields. In February 2016, Total has started up production at the offshore Vega Pleyade gas and condensate field situated on the concession. Total is also planning to sanction the Fenix development before end 2018.

In the onshore Neuquén basin, the Group holds equity interests in ten blocks, spanning more than 300,000 net acres, of which six are operated, including the Aguada Pichana and San Roque producing fields.

Total is currently conducting a pilot project on its operated Rincon la Ceniza license, which lies in the Vaca Muerta wet gas window, with very encouraging results so far. An appraisal well drilled in 2016 on the nearby operated La Escalonada block to test the oil window has also shown excellent productivity.


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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 01 May 2017, 20:33:25

Still dead. Still the Argentinians can't/won't afford their own $100/barrel Eau d' Bakken. Perhaps AdamB and Plant could fund it. They have money to burn on scams
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 02 May 2017, 06:14:49

Good to remember that the Dead Cow Field also produces NG. And that S. America in general in the primary buyer of expensive US LNG imports:

"Despite its estimated 802 Tcf of unproved, technically recoverable shale gas resources, Argentina’s dry natural gas production declined each year from 2006 to 2014, and the country has shifted from a net exporter of natural gas to a net importer. In 2015, natural gas production increased for the first time since 2006, as ongoing efforts to increase production from key shale gas areas in Argentina aimed to reduce its imports of natural gas."

And towards that end from last month:

"ExxonMobil will start shale gas production from Vaca Muerta in May. It is evaluating the potential of gas development in the Los Toldos 1 Sur block, and is poised to request a 35-year production license for the block according to Platts. It will have invested $750 million by the end of this year."

And with respect to: "Still the Argentinians can't/won't afford their own $100/barrel Eau d' Bakken..."

Argentinians are not paying $100/bbl. The domestic price goes from $55 to $67.50 per barrel depending on the crude type. What it cost operators to get it out of the ground is their problem. Profitable or not Argentina gets the oil at a price lower then its refineries pay for imports. From last year:

"Argentina aims to stop importing light crude this year and improve domestic refining operations as it moves further down the road toward energy self-sufficiency. Operators working in Argentina will continue to export oil, mostly Escalante heavy crude. But more refining of domestic light crudes and larger and more regular natural gas supplies would help the South American country cut imports of costly LNG, gasoil and crude. The Argentine government is in talks with local refineries, encouraging them to buy more domestic light crude and import less."
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 02 May 2017, 09:14:04

Of all the countries in South America only Argentina and Chile have a climate closely resembling the northern tier of the USA (not counting Alaska). Back in the day I recall Europeans theorizing that it was the cold winter/warm summer cycle of Europe that drove them to be the first to develop technology. If that theory were true then Argentina and Chile should be the most developed states of South America when instead it is Brazil and Venezuela with their massive natural resources that take first place, or at least they did before the socialist dictatorship took over VZ.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby sparky » Tue 02 May 2017, 09:40:41

.
It seems to me that awareness of "Peak Oil" is directly related to the state of the crude storage

when Full ......... Peak oil is a fake pushed by delusional doomers and their naive believers
when run down ...Peak oil is the obvious future of mankind , cursed to a future of eating turnips
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 02 May 2017, 10:07:20

Tanada wrote:Of all the countries in South America only Argentina and Chile have a climate closely resembling the northern tier of the USA (not counting Alaska). Back in the day I recall Europeans theorizing that it was the cold winter/warm summer cycle of Europe that drove them to be the first to develop technology. If that theory were true then Argentina and Chile should be the most developed states of South America when instead it is Brazil and Venezuela with their massive natural resources that take first place, or at least they did before the socialist dictatorship took over VZ.

cold winter/warm summers . . . and over population forced the Old World to innovate.

Back when folks came to the New World in 12,000 bc (or 100,000 bc 8O ) they weren't competing for resources. They could walk up to a dodo and hit it over the head. Their techno/social development slowed down.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 02 May 2017, 10:14:28

sparky wrote:.
It seems to me that awareness of "Peak Oil" is directly related to the state of the crude storage

when Full ......... Peak oil is a fake pushed by delusional doomers and their naive believers
when run down ...Peak oil is the obvious future of mankind , cursed to a future of eating turnips

We don't see peak oil, even though it's all around. A billion 3rd Worlders who can no longer afford $100 oil are not on our radar. All we hear is Trump and Nato and Russia blah blah blah. We're too comfortable to hear the truth.

Sadly now those 1 billion don't even need oil. They'd have little to use it for now.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
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