Mesuge wrote:Gone postal, going Weimar?
Well, that's a good question, scenario. If history is the judge the likely subplot in that case of truely global fast crashing is that many of these U.S. mil. bases around the world will be only partly relocated home, partly sold on black market and to creditor hosting nations, partly occupied by their renegate commanders etc.
I could imagine many weapons getting into the wrong hands because of this.
What's the real strenght of the U.S. mil projecting power though?
It's the clockwork system 24/365, where several battlegroups, jets and what have you are ready to strike every minute, day and night, resupply, repair, rinse and repeat. The level of complexity to prop up such system is rather insane, so some would argue, it takes a little wave at home (funding, political instability) and it goes puff into million pieces.
In order that system to not be effective anymore, you need supply-links problems, in terms of energy, parts, personel. And that won't happen without a truely total systemic crash. Because you can always screw up the domestic issues and prop up the mil. boys instead. As example take the Russians during coldwar, they axed, or simply underdeveloped the consumer sector and placed more % of national income into the mil-industrial complex. The U.S. is not there yet, still too much fat laying on the streets.
This system is designed to use force to seize what it needs. I don't see it failing unless it is either defeated in combat or ordered to stand down by those in power(unlikely).
No funding? Seize peoples' property after declaring a state of emergency and crack down on 'tax evasion', shooting or jailing anyone who doesn't comply. No oil? Seize it from other nations. Political instability? Go back home and make
things stable, even if it means shitting all over the constitution, putting 'checkpoints' everywhere, having the ability to detain anyone and confiscate anything, ect. The legislation is already in place to allow such a scenario to occur...
Seems far more likely in the U.S., that if a crisis threatens the existence of our military-industrial complex, that totalitarianism will be used to extend its existence, than for it to wither away and die. The worst part is that a lot of Americans would agree with it.
So, I doubt we are there today, I guess the U.S. can walk into the pawnshop for a few more years.
In some places, those days may be numbered:http://www.philly.com/dailynews/columnists/ronnie_polaneczky/20100618_Ronnie_Polaneczky__Shop_owner_rips_new_pawn_law.html
Article: It requires operators of pawn shops and precious-metals businesses (think cash-for-gold) to snap a digital photo of each customer and to obtain both an electronic imprint of the client's left thumb and a copy of the client's state-issued photo ID.
In a real fiscal emergency, the government of the U.S. would readily implement such a measure nationwide. Remember the gold confiscation under FDR? This would be a means to help enforce that should the government decide it is in their interest once again...
Also, the Weimar scenario is quite radical one in terms of timing, and as you said are the other prepared for such sudden dis-equilibrium? Everybody seems to be on the bandwagon make this transition as smooth as possible (rest of big global players), in their self-interest not rock the boat, obviously. But trigger event can create havoc.
Imagine, e.g. one good chunk of former battlegroup going with Gulf money (gold) as mercenaries with new master. Crazy and unpatriotic, impossible? Well, the living standard of many of these people is quite good, but suddenly going 2020 home to ~30-40% official unemployment and beyond crazy politics? Or continue your hobby like daily flying jets (and sometimes killing people), getting the paycheck in hard money, relocate family into Emirates "paradise" etc. You have got 5minutes on that decision, your admiral/general is a "father figure" you have known for 20 odd years, and now he sais "fuckit, I'm not going back to that hellhole, .. Congress now full of mexican druglords, .., third government in less than 6months, .."
Lots of weird, low probability scenarios out there.
There's so many of those weird, low probability scenarios that some of them are going to come true with time... Who'd have thought, for example, that the U.S. government would use a terrorist attack as an excuse to strip Americans of their liberties, and then attack another country for oil that had nothing to do whatsoever with said attacks using the attacks as an excuse? Who would have thought that a wellhead for a random oil rig would have failed, causing massive destruction of ocean life within the area affected, and exposing millions of people to carcinogens?
Given that the 'Weimar Scenario' has so many similar examples in history, especially after massive quantitative easing and bank bailouts had become fiscal policy, I think over the long term such a scenario in the U.S. is virtually guaranteed(barring a massive plague that causes a dieoff, nuclear war, ect.). WHEN it will happen, there's no precise way of knowing... I can say with confidence, however, that the U.S. is trending in that direction; seen various commodity prices lately? Combine this with a fiscal policy that has historically lead to massive inflation in other nations that have adopted similar policies. Time will tell what is going on, but something is rotten in the U.S.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson