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The Fallacy of predicting production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 01:51:53

This is the ugly skeleton in the closet that no one seems to want to talk about, especially the cornies. The IEA, and just about every other industry driven analysis agency seems to not have been doing a very good job at foretelling the future. Seems that each year things trend a bit more towards reality, but I would submit they STILL look a bit rosy when it comes to the reality of C&C production.

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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 01:59:43

Here is one for OPEC......

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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 02:08:25

Funny that after how ever many decades of supposed free press and a decade of internet everywhere, still there is no major credible prediction agency. This seems to indicate collusion on behalf of oil majors and the Agencies reporting this nonsense ad-infinitum; more likely though a product of wishful thinking and real diversification.
AirlinePilot wrote:Here is one for OPEC......

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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 02:21:56

The reason Im pointing this out is simple. We continue to see people post here showing charts and graphs which Include reports and predictions from these "credible" agencies which support that global crude production is climbing. Total Liquids are, but barely. The FACTS support something else cocnerning CRUDE. This is after all a Peak oil website and understanding why predictions can be flawed is very pertinent to understanding oil depletion. Its an attempt to make people THINK and find out information for themselves without the bias of a preconceived belief based on FLAWED assumptions. This same meme holds true for former PEAK OIL and decline predictions and its why it is important to realize that as the future unfolds it is key to understand that its ok to evolve hypothesis surrounding this discussion.

I tweaked that chart to show the last two years of OPEC numbers, its still pretty far off. if you go find the charts for NON OPEC numbers its just as silly.

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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 02:27:03

For those of us who have been following this CLOSELY for the last 7-8 years, its become obvious that the industry, and most probably governments too, drive the numbers in these reports a bit more than reality would suggest.
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby Pops » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 07:45:34

This is my new favorite chart:

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It shows capacity instead of production so it takes out lots of the short term political and price noise. It's like unfocusing you eyes to see a pattern.

Capacity grew like the dickens till 1980, was flat till '94 then resumed growing at a shallower but constant rate. Likewise, consumption grew quickly till the first yellow bubble in the '70s then dropped back and resumed growing at a slower but still constant rate. We talk about the drop in OECD demand as if it is a big deal but it is hardly noticeable.

From this view it seems inevitable that consumption would intersect with capacity somewhere in the area of the second bubble without increased capacity or decreased demand - the boom in Chinese chachkas moved the date up. As we all know, when spare capacity is that slim the markets get nervous. The other thing that strikes me is just how constant the growth has been over the 3 decades and how little capacity has moved from it's trendline regardless of all the happytalk.

We all know the IEA and EIA, not to mention IHS have been using the green line to make their forecasts, not the red one.
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 08:14:52

"The Fallacy of Predicting Production" have you sent that meme to Stuart Staniford yet? :? :razz:

AP, you missed out on your internet hat thread :-D
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby Kristen » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 10:34:05

If we build more refineries, would production increase?
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 15:28:52

I could not agree more about the fallacy of predicting oil production. :lol:

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 16:30:56

SeaGypsy wrote:Funny that after how ever many decades of supposed free press and a decade of internet everywhere, still there is no major credible prediction agency. This seems to indicate collusion on behalf of oil majors and the Agencies reporting this nonsense ad-infinitum; more likely though a product of wishful thinking and real diversification.
I think we can apply Hanlon's razor to the issue of failed predictions:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

It is not easy predicting the future, so many variables to consider. Cornies, Doomers, and supposedly neutral agencies have all made bad guesses of future crude production. I do not attribute massive blame against these people making guesses about the future. They are just that, guesses. I always found it funny when people get all excited when their opponent guessed wrong.
"OMG, your oracle was WWWAAAAAYYY OFF!! You guys obviously know nothing!!!"
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 17:54:45

Yeah, well I have kicked all their asses the last 2 years, we'll see if that continues. I am a slow crasher, consider myself neutral and have no vested interest in the market (besides likely starving to death like the rest of us when it's game over). I don't think any of the major predictors have these 'qualities'.
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 18:03:52

Kristen wrote:If we build more refineries, would production increase?


Only if we also build another earth for the refineries to get more crude oil from----the production from this earth is about maxed out.

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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 00:18:09

AirlinePilot wrote: This same meme holds true for former PEAK OIL and decline predictions and its why it is important to realize that as the future unfolds it is key to understand that its ok to evolve hypothesis surrounding this discussion.


OF,

Did you not see my acknowledgment ^^^^^^^^ that this goes both ways? The important point for all of us is not to be drawn completely into one side of an argument and become completely invested emotionally and intellectually. It destroys your ability to reason out changes as they occur. And Im the first to acknowledge that I changed my tune a few years back due to it. I was far more a "doomer" then, than I am now. I am firmly in the "we are screwed" camp, but more in a slow motion stair step down way than any fast crash die off scenario. I never embraced that despite a lot of mis-characterizations which seem always rampant here.
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 00:43:29

Fair enough - but it's just so much fun showing that chart, I couldn't resist! :lol: (FWIW it wasn't directed specifically at you anyway, just in general)

And speaking of predictions (not to mention having fun!), you have something you need to attend to. :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby alokin » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 03:03:10

Would be a great new business. Oil forecasting and modelling agency - honest, independant, thorough.
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 03:54:39

We are getting close to having the basis of just such a thing right here, which is great methinks. The prediction thread guys and gals here can prove that we have several consistently more accurate punters here than can be found elsewhere. If this trend continues, peakoil.com could well become THE place to look for analysis and prediction. (Us all here already know it is and why).
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby dissident » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 08:31:36

The problem is that the leaderships of the OECD states do not want to hear the truth. They want the feel good BS that their court jesters, the EIA and IEA, are peddling. So I am not sure there is a demand for honest, independent analysis. It would be nice if the overpaid politicians actually did their jobs. It would be nice if the "free" media was not a joke. That just leaves internet websites (pure tinfoil, of course) to disseminate the facts.

Nobody can take these organizations seriously after the sort of "forecasting" product they produce. Magic pixie dust oil popping up to fill in the demand is not analysis. They don't even cite the source for "undiscovered" oil, like USGS estimates based on field work or knowledge of rock formations or anything. It's just there...because.

There is another scam being foisted on the public these days, that there is 2 trillion barrels of "shale oil". At least the EIA and IEA have not stooped that low. But who knows, in a couple of years' time these outfits may be talking about it as established reserves.
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 09:07:06

When I joined in here I had a bunch of friends working on seismic exploratory platform vessels, mostly looking for likely gas and oil sites. For the last 3 years until mid last year, these guys were flat out busy all the time. Then the contracts petered out. Around the same time aerial magnetic resonance imaging has been done pretty much globally. What remains is to go out and drill those remaining few likely sites in the world, still the only way to really know what's down there.

The world is thoroughly geologically mapped. Within 2 to 4 years, every likely site in the world will be drilled, then we will know for sure there are no new Great Fields. From then on it's more and heavier sludge all the way down.
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby BasilBoy » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 10:56:37

AirlinePilot wrote: Did you not see my acknowledgment ^^^^^^^^ that this goes both ways? The important point for all of us is not to be drawn completely into one side of an argument and become completely invested emotionally and intellectually.

First, I agree with this statement. However, I'd like to add that there are times to be drawn completely to one side of an argument. Many do have a tendency to give all sides of arguments equal treatment. Such a sentiment makes it easy for those that wish to confuse...to confuse.
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Re: The Fallacy of predicting production

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 01 Mar 2012, 18:41:36

OilFinder2 wrote:Fair enough - but it's just so much fun showing that chart, I couldn't resist!
Who made those charts, exactly? Can you give a link? They claim to be based on various sources, but I don't think those sources made the same predictions.
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