[AdamB]

Meanwhile, OPEC may have peaked:

http://peakoilbarrel.com

Maybe. They said the same thing about the US, 10 years ago, right? All it took was the peak oil dynamic of POD and presto....just about made it back again. Did in terms of natural gas production, and the good news with natural gas is we can make it into liquid fuels as well. Not good for the environment perhaps, but Joe Sixpack doesn't mind current gas prices, and I don't mind heating my house cheap.

[MonteQuest]

Maybe. They said the same thing about the US, 10 years ago, right? All it took was the peak oil dynamic of POD and presto....just about made it back again.

Presto? An economically losing proposition financed by ever-increasing debt, fraught with environmental impacts, and requiring a Red Queen Syndrome of drilling, that has only continued this long due to hedging.

[ennui2]

Presto? An economically losing proposition financed by ever-increasing debt, fraught with environmental impacts, and requiring a Red Queen Syndrome of drilling, that has only continued this long due to hedging.

And your preferred approach would have been...what? It seems we've had only a series of bad options available to us for some time. I think you'll find that people's preferred poisons are up to personal taste.

[MonteQuest]

And your preferred approach would have been...what?

To not have heralded it as a solution, but rather for what it was and is, a desperate last ditch effort.

[AdamB]

No Adam, presto . . . production did not make it back to our 1970's peak. That is why it was the peak. As for natural gas:

The Marcellus is close to Peak Production and why this is so Important

By Bill Powers: One of the little spoken truths of the shale gas industry over the past three years has been that most of America’s gas fields are now experiencing production declines with one large exception: the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania.And that narrow reliance on one play gets even more concentrated the North American natural gas market has morphed from relying on the entire Marcellus to provide all of the continent’s production growth a year ago—to now hoping that growth in select Pennsylvania counties will sustain current trends.

Well, it appears that Marcellus is now in decline, and so America's natural gas bonanza just fizzled out. Sorry for the Adam. Looks like you and Joe Sixpack will be drinking warm beer in a very cold house lol

Okay..so oil production ALMOST made it back to the previous peak (certainly no one thinks that bell shaped curves describe oil production rates anymore though, right?), and natural gas DID, and now it is going down because of price...cool...we wait until LNG exports fire up at Sabine Pass with Cheniere this month, continued gains in electrical generation using the stuff, and price will take care of the rest.

It did before, and if it happens again, we now know the price to make it happen. About $100/oil, and maybe $5/mcf gas? Nice to know the ballpark for yet more resource development, in the grand scheme of things.

[AdamB]

Maybe. They said the same thing about the US, 10 years ago, right? All it took was the peak oil dynamic of POD and presto....just about made it back again.

Presto? An economically losing proposition financed by ever-increasing debt, fraught with environmental impacts, and requiring a Red Queen Syndrome of drilling, that has only continued this long due to hedging.

The debt problems we've got doesn't have much to do with drilling wells, that is just private money from suckers who never saw an oil cycle downturn, American debt is going into funding the same sort of nonsense (govt operations) that Greece faced.

In either case, certainly Hubbert never said finance or debt was the defining characteristic of geologically based oil and gas production. Folks began throwing out that one when some of the more famous peak oil folks, quoted in Congress and everything, when it became obvious to everyone really that the scenarios were a bit silly.Those must have been the days though, right?

[MonteQuest]

In either case, certainly Hubbert never said finance or debt was the defining characteristic of geologically based oil and gas production.

You haven't got a clue what we are talking about, do you?

[peripato]

Presto? An economically losing proposition financed by ever-increasing debt, fraught with environmental impacts, and requiring a Red Queen Syndrome of drilling, that has only continued this long due to hedging.

And your preferred approach would have been...what? It seems we've had only a series of bad options available to us for some time. I think you'll find that people's preferred poisons are up to personal taste.

I think of it this way, it bought us at least 7 more years of BAU. Happy days! But the grace is gotta give out sooner or later...

[ennui2]

Presto? An economically losing proposition financed by ever-increasing debt, fraught with environmental impacts, and requiring a Red Queen Syndrome of drilling, that has only continued this long due to hedging.

And your preferred approach would have been...what? It seems we've had only a series of bad options available to us for some time. I think you'll find that people's preferred poisons are up to personal taste.

I think of it this way, it bought us at least 7 more years of BAU. Happy days! But the grace is gotta give out sooner or later...

Exactly. I have no disagreement with this sentiment.

I think some of the palpitating about the current situation is a little overdone, that's all. Aside from the debt-bomb argument, it's snooze-bar time with oil supply.

[MonteQuest]

I think some of the palpitating about the current situation is a little overdone, that's all. Aside from the debt-bomb argument, it's snooze-bar time with oil supply.

Yeah, as long as there is a financial crash waiting in the wings, "it's not that bad."

[ennui2]

I think some of the palpitating about the current situation is a little overdone, that's all. Aside from the debt-bomb argument, it's snooze-bar time with oil supply.

Yeah, as long as there is a financial crash waiting in the wings, "it's not that bad."

Monte, the financial crash was in 2008. It's not topical anymore. You might as well talk about how the Arab oil embargo of the 70s delayed peak oil. That was then, and this is now. Some people just can't let 2008 go, because it's when peak-oil stopped being relevant to anyone.

[peripato]

I think some of the palpitating about the current situation is a little overdone, that's all. Aside from the debt-bomb argument, it's snooze-bar time with oil supply.

Yeah, as long as there is a financial crash waiting in the wings, "it's not that bad."

Postponement is both a blessing and a curse. At once it allows us to enjoy the fruits of BAU, but a soon as BAU succumbs it's off to the scrapheap for most of us. Oh well, it's been a hell of a ride...

[MonteQuest]

Monte, the financial crash was in 2008. It's not topical anymore. You might as well talk about how the Arab oil embargo of the 70s delayed peak oil. That was then, and this is now. Some people just can't let 2008 go, because it's when peak-oil stopped being relevant to anyone.

In the 70's, the world wasn't struggling to meet oil demand and drilling unprofitable shale oil to meet it.

In 2008, we were.

Your dismissal of the 2008 demand destruction, is like saying the oil embargo wasn't the reason behind the oil shortage & gas rationing.

[ennui2]

Your dismissal of the 2008 demand destruction, is like saying the oil embargo wasn't the reason behind the oil shortage & gas rationing.

Whether I dismiss or accept it, it doesn't change where we are today in 2016, which is a GLUT. It's like whether or not someone believes in an earth-centric or helio-centric solar system, it doesn't change the fact we have 24-hour day/night cycles. So it's ultimately an academic dispute.

That would then force him admit peak oil.

We're in a GLUT.

This is not what we were promised for peak-oil doom. In fact it's the complete OPPOSITE. That you would harp on labels shows how obsessed you are with retroactive validation long after most have shrugged it off and moved on.

[ennui2]

Say it loud! Say proud! Say it with BIG LETTERS. But it is still wrong.

[ennui2]

Wrong.

Oil prices were low even before the downturn in China. The downturn is just stacked on top, but it wasn't required.

Oil prices starting going low due to the success of fracking combined with the middle-east producers deciding to fight for market-share rather than price.

It's common-sense. If Planty pops in, I'm sure he'll agree with me, but he prefers to argue this point off the homepage rather than here.

The only reason to resist this common sense is to stubbornly hold onto some convoluted peak-oil-doom talking-point that nobody takes seriously outside of Gail or Chris Martenson's leftover groupies.

Once you let go of the need for the current situation to represent "doom" you'll be able to actually see the world much clearer, which is more shades of gray and not simply "doom" vs "cornucopia".