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The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Laromi » Fri 12 Oct 2012, 09:46:45

Over the past few days Australia has been treated to anomalous weather conditions, that no doubt, will be reflected in various comment as peak weather conditions or through bifurcation into climate change.

No matter what, recorded climatic events and their epitomal like recordings for the past thousand years or so are still the backstop for current day events i.e. freak weather including snow, hits Australian southern states and southern Queensland, (a sub tropical region of Australia)... worst weather seen in 75 years.

Are those recordings now letters of marque against a backdrop of 10, 15, 30 thousand years, eons for climate change? Does the current 50-100 years poor weather reflect climate change any more than polarity reversals were/are indicative of mass extinctions for instance? Statistically yellowstone should blow, in Colombia the recent increase in seismic activity under Sotarà an "extict" volcano suggests this geologic relic is not what it was touted to be.

If the above is so, how long were the periods involved and what were their actual precursors; vulcanism, toe-picking? At least this subject, a state shift in Earth's biosphere is "only" approachinga state shift in Earth's biosphere, how long until we reach the proposal the unification of state shift in Earth's biosphere, climate change and magnetic pole reversal are dependent on each event?

Dohboi suggests the "The next five, and certainly ten, years will see nearly the entire globe go into a dramatically different state." what we don't appear to have here is the empirical data to support links to catastrophic global change perhaps with the scrutiny of geopaleontological evidence, but that answer will only satisfy a few as an explanation.

Perhaps our civilisation will be dug up as a radiological anaomoly.
Nah, bad theory, it was a natural event; No civilisation could be that stupid. :lol:
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sat 13 Oct 2012, 11:22:29

Nature is not an amenity or a lifestyle accessory - it is the basis of all life. We'll degrade and abuse it until we suddenly find the well has gone dry.
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Laromi » Mon 15 Oct 2012, 08:26:39

David Rose
DailyMail.co.uk
October 14, 2012

Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago, Reveals Quietly Released Met Office Report.

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.
The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.


Read full article. Lets hope its a nail in one component of the climate change debate. Pity the same could not be applied to the wholesomeness of the air we breath and the environment as a whole. :x
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Oct 2012, 19:17:47

L, that article is an obvious piece of sh!t, debunked many times over, and from a trash publication. Please read critically and consider the source. Here's one of the many places you can find a discussion of the many lies perpetrated in the article.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/misleading-daily-mail-prebunked-nuccitelli-et-al-2012.html

Here's a good quick overview of approximately where we are (very likely, it's much worse than presented here).

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/14/1009121/science-of-global-warming-impacts-guide/

Read Lynas's Six Degrees for some idea of what the temp increases discussed here will mean for humanity and for life on the planet.
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 23 Oct 2012, 21:26:26

that article is an obvious piece of sh!t, debunked many times over, and from a trash publication. Please read critically and consider the source. Here's one of the many places you can find a discussion of the many lies perpetrated in the article.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/mislead ... -2012.html


Probably wouldn't hurt to check and see what renowned published scientists are saying about this issue:
Several long discussions at Climate etc
http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/14/pause ... on-thread/
http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/16/pause ... d-part-ii/
http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/17/pause ... lian-flag/
http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/21/sunday-mail-again/

she makes the observation that Rose's contention there has been a pause in warming over the period in question is correct and demonstrable. She points out a not too serious misquote with respect to modeling.
A quote from Curry, directed at Rose's critics:
Raise the level of your game. Nothing in the Met Office’s statement or in Nuticelli’s argument effectively refutes Rose’s argument that there has been no increase in the global average surface temperature for the past 16 years.
Use this as an opportunity to communicate honestly with the public about what we know and what we don’t know about climate change. Take a lesson from these other scientists that acknowledge the ‘pause’, mentioned in my previous post Candid comments from global warming scientists

Those other scientists included Trenberth, Lean, Solomon and Santer.
In case you missed it last Sunday Rose posted another article which elucidated his interview with Curry (which she now seems happy with).
In that article he points out an important observation:
The Met Office now confirms on its climate blog that no significant warming has occurred recently: ‘We agree with Mr Rose that there has only been a very small amount of warming in the 21st Century

In case you missed it the Met Office is the keeper of HadCrut4, if anyone is an authority on what the data is saying I suspect they are.
another key point he makes is the fact that statistically there has been neither warming or cooling during this period:
Between 1980 and the end of 1996, the planet warmed at a rate close to 0.2 degrees per decade. Since then, says the Met Office, the trend has been a much lower 0.03 degrees per decade.
However, world average temperature measurements are subject to an error of plus or minus 0.1 degrees, while any attempt to calculate a trend for the period 1997-2012 has an in-built statistical error of plus or minus 0.4 degrees. The claim that there has been any statistically significant warming for the past 16 years is therefore unsustainable.

Now for those who missed that day in statistics class and error of 0.1 degrees alone obliterates a change of 0.03 degrees..it is beyond accuracy.
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 23 Oct 2012, 22:39:15

rockdoc123 wrote:
Between 1980 and the end of 1996, the planet warmed at a rate close to 0.2 degrees per decade. Since then, says the Met Office, the trend has been a much lower 0.03 degrees per decade.
However, world average temperature measurements are subject to an error of plus or minus 0.1 degrees, while any attempt to calculate a trend for the period 1997-2012 has an in-built statistical error of plus or minus 0.4 degrees. The claim that there has been any statistically significant warming for the past 16 years is therefore unsustainable.

Now for those who missed that day in statistics class and error of 0.1 degrees alone obliterates a change of 0.03 degrees..it is beyond accuracy.
So, no worries, BAU, 1000 ppm here we come!
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 23 Oct 2012, 23:10:38

So, no worries, BAU, 1000 ppm here we come!


didn't say that did I?
The fact of the matter is that while there was no appreciable rise in temperatures during that period of time CO2 continued to rise and all of the models that were constructed at the start of that period indicated temperatures should have risen in lock step. All that says is that more research is needed and a better understanding of all the forcings and their interactions is required. This should be an opportunity for climate scientists to take the high road. Trying to ignore facts because they don't fit your models or theory hardly jives with the scientific method.
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 24 Oct 2012, 01:06:51

Laromi wrote:Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago, Reveals Quietly Released Met Office Report.

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.
The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures..... Lets hope its a nail in one component of the climate change debate.



You don't understand. The world is a very big place and its been around for millions of years. The whole idea that climate isn't changing now is silly----climate is always changing naturally. It never stops changing.

The question is't whether or not climate is changing----it most certainly is.

The question is HOW FAST is it changing ---and----how much is natural and how much is now human caused climate change. And looking at average annual temps is only part of the question------we seem to be having HOTTER summers and COLDER winters just now. We also seem to be having more EXTREME events---heat waves and droughts like those over the last few years in Europe, Russia, Texas and just last year in the American midwest.

Finally, Arctic Sea Ice is melting. Its hitting record lows. That is incontrovertible. 8)
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Laromi » Sat 27 Oct 2012, 05:12:49

Hitting a new low? probably not, hitting record lows in our time probably not:
In a book written by leading archaeologists Bruce Bradley of the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, and Dennis Stanford of the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C. Bradley and Stanford say they believe some of the earliest humans to inhabit America came from Europe. For more than 400 years, it has been claimed that people first entered America from Asia, via a land bridge that spanned the Bering Sea. We now know that some people did arrive via this route nearly 15,000 years ago, probably by both land and sea. Across Atlantic Ice: The Origin of America’s Clovis Culture, Bradley, Bruce. / Stanford, Dennis. 2012

Noted atmospheric scientist Lisa Goddard, director of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University said, “And climate change timescales are “longer than human memory and longer than terms in political office,” Goddard noted. “Human experience is also largely local, and it’s hard to notice a global trend.” Scientific American
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 27 Oct 2012, 08:33:28

In a book written by leading archaeologists Bruce Bradley of the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, and Dennis Stanford of the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C. Bradley and Stanford say they believe some of the earliest humans to inhabit America came from Europe. For more than 400 years, it has been claimed that people first entered America from Asia, via a land bridge that spanned the Bering Sea. We now know that some people did arrive via this route nearly 15,000 years ago, probably by both land and sea. Across Atlantic Ice: The Origin of America’s Clovis Culture, Bradley, Bruce. / Stanford, Dennis. 2012


Baloney.........

Image

Humboldt Museum

Local history museum with skulls of red-haired giants.

Image

Image
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Laromi » Sat 27 Oct 2012, 10:38:01

vision-master wrote:
In a book written by leading archaeologists Bruce Bradley of the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, and Dennis Stanford of the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C. Bradley and Stanford say they believe some of the earliest humans to inhabit America came from Europe. For more than 400 years, it has been claimed that people first entered America from Asia, via a land bridge that spanned the Bering Sea. We now know that some people did arrive via this route nearly 15,000 years ago, probably by both land and sea. Across Atlantic Ice: The Origin of America’s Clovis Culture, Bradley, Bruce. / Stanford, Dennis. 2012


Baloney.........


What a well informed and cogent statement you make. Oh, and the mandible and denture cast, which one is yours?
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 27 Oct 2012, 15:51:45

Physical evidence is there, right here in North America. Show me your evidence?

Just like that ECat scam. :)
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Laromi » Sun 28 Oct 2012, 04:18:23

by vision-master » Sun Oct 28, 2012 5:51 am

Physical evidence is there, right here in North America. Show me your evidence?
What, pray tell, are you on about; that climate change, the north/west passage was never navigable, or Clovis man is a lot of hooey?

The exchange of warm tropical and cold polar water “has happened before, purportedly, at least seven times in the past 60,000 years.” My guess is that people with an interest and an open mind can mine the facts from other sources, from which they can form their own informed opinions on climate change.

Significant climate abberations are not new geologically, nor are they omitted from the ancients anecdotal stories of great famines,floods and etc. The point here is that “overturning circulation” of the global oceans, creating global warming or cooling has happened at least seven times before; you want to challenge new geological and anthropological evidence? Great, but "Baloney..." does not cut it.
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 28 Oct 2012, 10:23:52

So, Plato was correct?

Many great and wonderful deeds are recorded of your state in our histories. But one of them exceeds all the rest in greatness and valour. For these histories tell of a mighty power which unprovoked made an expedition against the whole of Europe and Asia, and to which your city put an end. This power came forth out of the Atlantic Ocean, for in those days the Atlantic was navigable; and there was an island situated in front of the straits which are by you called the Pillars of Heracles; the island was larger than Libya and Asia put together, and was the way to other islands, and from these you might pass to the whole of the opposite continent which surrounded the true ocean; for this sea which is within the Straits of Heracles is only a harbour, having a narrow entrance, but that other is a real sea, and the surrounding land may be most truly called a boundless continent. Now in this island of Atlantis there was a great and wonderful empire which had rule over the whole island and several others, and over parts of the continent, and, furthermore, the men of Atlantis had subjected the parts of Libya within the columns of Heracles as far as Egypt, and of Europe as far as Tyrrhenia..........

http://ancienthistory.about.com/od/lost ... lantis.htm
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Laromi » Sun 28 Oct 2012, 11:31:42

by vision-master » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:23 am

So, Plato was correct?


Why not? "Significant climate abberations are not new geologically, nor are they omitted from the ancients anecdotal stories of great famines,floods and etc."
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 28 Oct 2012, 23:03:09

Laromi wrote:
Noted atmospheric scientist Lisa Goddard, director of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University said, “And climate change timescales are “longer than human memory and longer than terms in political office,” Goddard noted. “Human experience is also largely local, and it’s hard to notice a global trend.” Scientific American

So there are quite a few problems with getting this "state shift" risk taken seriously:
- short human memory.
- local experience.
- normalcy bias.
- chaotic behaviour, state shifts, tipping points, etc are not widely understood and considered arcane theories.
- the discredited notion of a constant "balance of nature" is still widely believed and taught. Wikipedia
- the "balance of nature" ties in with Creationist concepts of the god-given natural order.
- religious-like belief in "growth" and jobs as the solution to all problems, which also ties in with the Christian "go forth and multiply" and similar ideas of other religions.
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 29 Oct 2012, 00:28:48

The biggest trouble is simply that by the time the state shift is apparent to the people that matter, its much to late to be figuring out how to keep everyone fed in the new state. Up against that problem, asking whether human's caused it or not is an almost insulting triviality.
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Re: Nature: Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Unread postby Laromi » Mon 29 Oct 2012, 11:39:55

Not putting too fine a point on it, but perhaps replication of catastrophic events is the way of "nature" to defend the exigency of survival. Probably a bit like death, you know it's coming, you can yell and scream or otherwise revile against it but It'll get you in the end. :)
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The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 10:47:40

Ibon wrote:A recent blog post about the mammals present at Mount Totumas Cloud Forest.

http://blog.mounttotumas.com/?p=2821

The previous owners allowed hunters on the property. In 8 years the wildlife population has rebounded, in part because we border a national park and there is a direct corridor of intact habitat allowing these animals to quickly recolonize former habitat.

Nature is incredibly resilient. It doesn't take that many years for wildlife to recolonize former habitat when given a chance. Once the human footprint recedes on the planet the rebound affect will be dramatic, as long as we can hold on to refuge populations.

What populations had the hunters reduced?
I ask because in my experience as a hunter I've had a hard time even thinning a herd much less wipe it out. Uncontrolled poaching is the far greater danger.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 13:27:24

vtsnowedin wrote: I ask because in my experience as a hunter I've had a hard time even thinning a herd much less wipe it out. Uncontrolled poaching is the far greater danger.


Here habitat loss is primary factor, poaching is secondary. Depends though on species. Baird's Tapir has one off spring every 2-3 years and is impacted by hunting/poaching because of low reproductive rates. Fragmented remaining population endangered. Completely extirpated from lowlands of Panama and no longer found in several Central American countries. This species is one that just needs to hold on in a few refuge populations to recolonize former habitat one day.

Collared Peccaries are more abundant and a female will produce up to a 5 young a year. With sufficient habitat remaining this species can withstand hunting pressure.

We still have the top predators here keeping prey species in balance; Jaguar, Mountain Lion, Ocelot, Tayra, Grisson.

You may be the only predator remaining in your area if you don't have wolves, mountain lions, bears, etc. and that would explain why you are challenged to thin the herd. White tailed deer are a prime example.

Sustainable hunting is a critical wildlife management strategy in many areas of North America.

Here at Mount Totumas we don't permit even sustainable hunting because the wildlife here quickly learns the area is a refuge and we can notice profound difference in 8 years in wildlife tolerating human presence. We want guests to have opportunity to see wildlife and these animals are smart and if we allowed gunshot and hunting many species would become super wary and would be even harder to see than they already are. .

I am tempted though to allow anyone who shows up with a cross bow to bag a Collared Peccary. We put salt on the ground near the game cameras and sometimes we have herds of up to 20 of these animals. They are abundant here.
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