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The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 25 May 2017, 11:08:04

pstarr wrote:I read somewhere that floating plastic mats of junk were the best off-shore habitats for non-pelagic fish. In another words, man has created special ecospheres that attract a completely different ecosystem in a new place. Sounds happy to me. :) You doomers just want to tragedize everything lol


There is very little that is entirely void of good or evil, positive or negative consequences. Finding some slight positive and ignoring the massive downside is a disengenious argument at best. At worst it is intentionally misleading.

Cigarette smoke keeps mosquitos away therefore smoking cigarettes is good for your health. Sounds kinda silly no?
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 00:38:33

“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 10:02:15

Newfie wrote:
pstarr wrote:I read somewhere that floating plastic mats of junk were the best off-shore habitats for non-pelagic fish. In another words, man has created special ecospheres that attract a completely different ecosystem in a new place. Sounds happy to me. :) You doomers just want to tragedize everything lol


There is very little that is entirely void of good or evil, positive or negative consequences. Finding some slight positive and ignoring the massive downside is a disengenious argument at best. At worst it is intentionally misleading.

Cigarette smoke keeps mosquitos away therefore smoking cigarettes is good for your health. Sounds kinda silly no?
Yes, life (and death for that matter) is not black and white. I am a "recreational" smoker (as opposed to a full time smoker. I coined the term lol). I enjoy a cigarette almost every day. Usually no more. Have for decades. It is what it is.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 16:40:47

https://robertscribbler.com/2014/01/21/ ... ng-oceans/
Awakening the Horrors of the Ancient Hothouse — Hydrogen Sulfide in the World’s Warming Oceans
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 07:32:01

https://skepticalscience.com/Lee-commen ... ating.html
Alarming new study makes today’s climate change more comparable to Earth’s worst mass extinction
https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/ ... nd-update/
Just checking the links on Guy's site, Wow. It certainly seems that the stage is set for abrupt catastrophic climate change. With an abrupt substantial rise in global temperature human habitat ie. sources of food and water may disappear rapidly. That certainly could lead to our extinction or close to it
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 12:38:16

I don't follow him closely, but I heard on another forum that he has moved the date for total extinction up to 2025 now.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 12:45:34

dohboi wrote:I don't follow him closely, but I heard on another forum that he has moved the date for total extinction up to 2025 now.


"Up to" meaning closer, nearer in time?
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 12:51:57

Yeah, I think he had it some time in the 2030's before, but again, I don't follow him closely, so I may be mis-remembering (but don't mis-underestimate me!! :) :) ).
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 08:52:11

Okay, this is where climate change ultimately leads to considering all the CO2 already in the atmosphere and how much more will end up there
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... umans.html
Earth becoming virtually uninhabitable
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 12:15:32

That is a very good overview of the disaster, thanks onlooker.... 8O
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 12:22:48

Guy McPherson? The same guy that predicted that Fukushima would wipe out all life on the West Coast Guy McPherson? LOL
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 13:07:19

Yes, wf, ol's linked article is worth a read for one and all.

One quotable passage:

The Earth has experienced five mass extinctions before the one we are living through now, each so complete a slate-wiping of the evolutionary record it functioned as a resetting of the planetary clock, and many climate scientists will tell you they are the best analog for the ecological future we are diving headlong into. Unless you are a teenager, you probably read in your high-school textbooks that these extinctions were the result of asteroids. In fact, all but the one that killed the dinosaurs were caused by climate change produced by greenhouse gas.

The most notorious was 252 million years ago; it began when carbon warmed the planet by five degrees, accelerated when that warming triggered the release of methane in the Arctic, and ended with 97 percent of all life on Earth dead.

We are currently adding carbon to the atmosphere at a considerably faster rate; by most estimates, at least ten times faster.

The rate is accelerating.


(My emphases/formatting)
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 13:10:41

Dohboi, did you hear Dissident saying that the rate of CO2 emission is what most informs his grim prognosis
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 13:18:45

Yes, I was going to concur, but he already put it so well.

What I tell my students is that rate of change is pretty much everything. If the same amount of carbon released during past extinctions had emerged at a tenth or a hundredth of the rate it did then, probably the earth systems could have adjusted pretty well. That we are ten times faster than even the greatest extinction...does not speak well for our prospect nor for the prospects of most life on earth.

I hold up a piece of chalk near my head in front of the class and very slowly move it toward my head and ask if my students think that it poses any threat. Of course, they all say no. But then I say, what if I loaded it into a gun and fired it at my head point blank...they all say that I would likely die.

Then I point out that the only difference between the two scenarios is rate of change. And the fast one is deadly for exactly the same reason as is the case with GHGs...just as my head can easily get out of the way of (adjust to) a very slow moving object, very incrementally slow changes in environment can be accomodated by species either by migration or adaptation or evolution. And systems also have time to let negative feedbacks limit the damage.

But with very fast change, most or all of these options are off the table for most/many species.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 07:45:18

And here's a scholarly paper on the current (sixth) mass extinction event:


Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines


http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/07/05/1704949114

Abstract
The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth’s sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species.

We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range.

In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage).

Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event.


And here's a Guardian article based on the same: https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... tists-warn
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 08:31:14

dohboi wrote:Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event.


Dohboi, you've heard my spiel on this before but I will once again highlight it here.

This is real, this is happening. This is not some forecast like the predictions of climate change consequences. This wholesale conversion of natural ecosystems over to man made environments has been ongoing for many decades and this rarely gets the press and attention that you see with climate change. I have always found that to be strange and when I dug deep to investigate the reasons behind this what is revealed is sheer and utter hypocrisy. Climate change threatens our manmade infrastructure. That is why even though consequences haven't yet bloomed we focus on it. Biodiversity loss due to the wholesale plundering of natural ecosystems doesn't get the press because let's face it doesn't negatively impact human infrastructure, it does the opposite, it increases the human footprint.

It is also easy to generate outrage about something in the future unfolding while conveniently ignoring the elephant in the room regarding the integrity of biodiversity on the planet. We mourn the potential loss of polar bears due to the forecast of consequences of climate change while right under our noses the wholesale extirpation of countless species has been relentlessly unfolding for decades.

You really have to ask yourself about the sincerity of humanity to address the issue of human overshoot when the major topic out there is climate change and its impacts on man made infrastructure. Self interest remains intact, that has always been the hypocrisy around climate change for me and I do not trust the deeper reasons behind humanity's desire to mitigate it. Is it really for the integrity of our biosphere and fellow flora and fauna or is it about keeping our own infrastructure resilient and intact? I have to conclude this to be the case otherwise we would have demonstrated far more concern for the already real and dire consequences of biodiversity loss around the globe due to the ongoing plundering of natural ecosystems.

Those small remnant refuge populations of flora and fauna around the planet will one day be the seedstock that will recolonize former human habitats once our footprint recedes. The longer the correction takes to happen the more debilitated these refuge populations become so yes we do need corrections to human overshoot to accelerate in order to reduce the rate of extinctions.

I am not a climate change activist but I did take a huge chunk of my net worth to preserve 400 acres and work locally to raise environmental awareness on a grass roots level.

I remain ambiguous about humanities concern for climate change. Merkel and China and the Paris accords. Why are they concerned? So that nothing threatens ultimately the global economic expansion of Kudzu Ape on the planet.

It's all a charade about caring for our planet when it really is all about keeping the status quo resilient. It's all bullshit.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 08:53:39

The problem with all such predictions of Doom is the same. Everybody assumes that every source of warming extends forward with a linear to exponential growth trend.

In fact, most such warming is moderated by negative feedback mechanisms which reduce it's impact to some fraction of the modelled figure. When these are identified and added to the model, predictions of Doom recede into the distant future. Then some other prediction of Doom replaces that one, and the cycle repeats. Doom is every-popular, and has been since the pre-human Shamans used the fear of lightning to get far more than their share of food and females.

The world is warming, something I do not doubt. I simply believe that the majority of warming - I would even say "the vast majority" is completely natural and would be occurring without the presence of mankind and his FF-burning civilization. I think most of you commit the mistake of hubris, assuming that mankind has far greater significance than he has.

Note that I read the fear-mongering climate fiction from David Wallace-Wells, and the abstracts of the one scientific paper, and the second magazine article. The important point is made in the following paragraph:

Wildlife is dying out due to habitat destruction, overhunting, toxic pollution, invasion by alien species and climate change. But the ultimate cause of all of these factors is “human overpopulation and continued population growth, and overconsumption, especially by the rich”, say the scientists, who include Prof Paul Ehrlich, at Stanford University in the US, whose 1968 book The Population Bomb is a seminal, if controversial, work.


Who woulda thought that 7.5 billion humans would be replacing other vertabrates, or destroying their habitats? Everybody except oblivious "scientists" who are now discovering the obvious. But only the fifth-ranked cause of animal extinctions is climate change in the NG article. Most climate change is natural - and an additional amount best described as "insignificant to minor" results from the burning of FF's. So the doom mongers are working overtime to sell fear to a populace that is for the most part and entirely appropriately, uncaring.

I do not doubt that a correction will eventually happen to human overshoot. I also do not doubt that human intelligence will hold off that inevitable correction - in fact already has done so, because if we were not clever with agriculture and medicine and other technologies, we would have died back about a century ago.

Well Elon Musk believes that he can build a Mars colony before that happens. I think he can, too - but I consider him a fool, limited by the notion that we must have a ball of dirt to live on. I believe we can live in space itself, much more easily, cheaply, and without additional difficulty - as we would be managing a transplanted and simplified Terrestrial ecology either way.

Notice that I am not disputing Doom in the larger sense, just pointing out that - short of global thermonuclear war - it's further away than most of you believe, because the planetary ecology is not at all fragile. Even during and after the correction of human overshoot, humans and many other species will persist (rather than thrive) on Earth's surface.

Ibon is entirely correct:

You really have to ask yourself about the sincerity of humanity to address the issue of human overshoot when the major topic out there is climate change and its impacts on man made infrastructure.
Last edited by KaiserJeep on Tue 11 Jul 2017, 08:57:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 08:54:06

Thank you Ibon,
Maybe CC awareness is our guilt finally showing thru.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 09:02:14

Climate change is largely natural, all other impacts are symptoms of the human overshoot population.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 09:25:27

A recent blog post about the mammals present at Mount Totumas Cloud Forest.

http://blog.mounttotumas.com/?p=2821

The previous owners allowed hunters on the property. In 8 years the wildlife population has rebounded, in part because we border a national park and there is a direct corridor of intact habitat allowing these animals to quickly recolonize former habitat.

Nature is incredibly resilient. It doesn't take that many years for wildlife to recolonize former habitat when given a chance. Once the human footprint recedes on the planet the rebound affect will be dramatic, as long as we can hold on to refuge populations.
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