The Export Land Model

[shortonsense]

I frankly doubt we became "much, much more efficient".

Then YOU offer an explanation. We import as much crude as we did 33 years ago, the economy has grown approximately 2.5X since then, we have millions of more cars if not tens of millions or even hundreds of millions more, and some of them are SUV's which weren't even around when we were sucking down crude in the late-70's, if it isn't efficiency it sure is SOMETHING of quite a serious nature. Wonder why peakers don't try and figure stuff like this out...seems like a pretty decent solution for the rest of the world is wrapped up in how well us Americans have done it. Maybe thats the problem....peakers aren't looking for solutions, they just enjoy the fantasy world they create. Sort of like Second Life, except for pessimists.

[gollum]

Then YOU offer an explanation. We import as much crude as we did 33 years ago, the economy has grown approximately 2.5X since then, we have millions of more cars if not tens of millions or even hundreds of millions more, and some of them are SUV's which weren't even around when we were sucking down crude in the late-70's, if it isn't efficiency it sure is SOMETHING of quite a serious nature. .

I can buy that explanation for the drop in imports in the early eighties, but the more recent drop is not efficiency.

[shortonsense]

I can buy that explanation for the drop in imports in the early eighties, but the more recent drop is not efficiency.

I would agree. That drop is the power of demand destruction, triggered by price to some, possibly large, extent. This power was revealed to be greater than field declines over the past 2 years, which is quite a surprise....I'm trying to recall any contemporaneous peaker article I ever read which said that "obviously, when peak oil causes the price to rise, demand will slacken and compensate for the production decline down the backside well enough to mitigate price back to a reasonable level".....but I can't seem to find it.

In any case, demand destruction is a wonderful thing, and hopefully once the soon to be released Volts and Leaf's start hitting the showroom floor, it certainly isn't difficult to imagine a country which uses less and less through time, particularly if other countries soak up what we used to use and keeps the price high enough to make sure that structural changes can continue under a decent crude price floor. Certainly the idea has the Saudi's worried enough that they think they might need handouts soon.

[pstarr]

Short. You are not really . . . saying the drop in petroleum consumption . . . in the USA . . . is a function of the Chevy Volt?

I think you are

[shortonsense]

Short. You are not really . . . saying the drop in petroleum consumption . . . in the USA . . . is a function of the Chevy Volt? I think you are

Thats because you didn't read what I actually wrote. I can have my 6th grader tutor you if you'd like, her schedule is a bit busy with 4th graders at the moment, but I'm sure she can fit in someone needing even more help.

[pstarr]

Thats because you didn't read what I actually wrote. I can have my 6th grader tutor you if you'd like, her schedule is a bit busy with 4th graders at the moment, but I'm sure she can fit in someone needing even more help.

What did you actually write? Can you summate it perfunctorily in a concise and less obtuse fashion then you usually are wont to to? Perchance? And can you be less cute this time?

[PeakOiler]

We import as much crude as we did 33 years ago<<snip>>

I don't know where you got that idea, but according to the EIA:



http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_a.htm

[rangerone314]

I don't side with short's cheerful technoptism but I did understand what he was writing, it wasn't unclear to me at least.

While a Nissan Leaf will start at less than a Volt at about $25,000 that is almost $10,000 more than the cheapest Honda Civic. (A Leaf will cost about 60% more than a Civic) A LOT of people are not going to be able to afford them. I also don't know how long the batteries will last.

[Revi]

The leaf is just the first of the electric cars. You can buy a Peapod for a lot less and get around town just fine. Or build your own and drive around town like we have been doing for the past 3 years.

When the export land model really starts to bite a lot of people will be getting around in electric cars.

[PeakOiler]

I posted a graph above from a Excel workbook downloaded from the EIA this morning. The data in that workbook only goes to 2008. This made shortonsense's statement I quoted above look untrue. Upon review of page two of this thread, I see that AP posted a graphic from EIA that I had not seen before which includes 2009 and 2010 data. (Must have been one of those days that the image did not load, and I had not visited this thread for awhile.) So that answers my question why shortonsense had that idea.
Interesting that EIA's spreadsheet does not correspond to the graphic AP posted.

[TheDude]

More oil was conserved in the US in the early 80s through phasing out of resid than from CAFE. 1978-1983 contractions in product supplied:

Code: Select all

Finished Motor Gasoline   Distillate Fuel Oil   Residual Fuel Oil
              -555                 -662          -1650

[shortonsense]

I don't know where you got that idea, but according to the EIA:

The EIA is of many minds perhaps. Yesplease has also noticed the current state of imports, and how this number matches up well with what the US used many years ago.

[shortonsense]

I don't side with short's cheerful technoptism but I did understand what he was writing, it wasn't unclear to me at least.

That because you, like many others here, have perfectly functioning neurons and aren't trying to misrepresent everyone elses opinion for their own ends. Don't ask me why these trolls do it, they just do. Self esteem issues is my guess.

While a Nissan Leaf will start at less than a Volt at about $25,000 that is almost $10,000 more than the cheapest Honda Civic. (A Leaf will cost about 60% more than a Civic) A LOT of people are not going to be able to afford them. I also don't know how long the batteries will last.

Which is why Nissan is considering leasing them, so you can swap them out on occasion. Interesting business model in my book. But certainly, with the mean car price in America being $28G's, the Leaf shouldn't be any more trouble.

[gollum]

I would agree. That drop is the power of demand destruction, triggered by price to some, possibly large, extent. This power was revealed to be greater than field declines over the past 2 years, which is quite a surprise --snip-- Certainly the idea has the Saudi's worried enough that they think they might need handouts soon.

I'm a doomer, but it would be great if you were right, and I hope you are.

[shortonsense]

I'm a doomer, but it would be great if you were right, and I hope you are.

The obvious consequences of PO+5 not being enough to convince you?

[AirlinePilot]

I'm a doomer, but it would be great if you were right, and I hope you are.

The obvious consequences of PO+5 not being enough to convince you?

The reason you get so much friction short is because of posts just like this last one. Face it we really haven't peaked yet. You can point to the "prophets" all you want but normally functioning folks like you and I would admit "THE PEAK" has not necessarily happened yet. Light Sweet? probably...Total liquids?..probably not, but very close....which one matters most? Good question...but I can tell you with a lot of certainty that timing will be everything and we are doing a rather poor job of replacement and conservation to date.

[AirlinePilot]

I posted a graph above from a Excel workbook downloaded from the EIA this morning. The data in that workbook only goes to 2008. --snip-- So that answers my question why shortonsense had that idea. Interesting that EIA's spreadsheet does not correspond to the graphic AP posted.

Our charts are different time scales and different plots. Yours is each year cumulative..mine is showing monthly plots and you'd have to zoom in and add the totals for each year to get what yours shows...the points are not resolved enough to actually do it though. Thats why it looks different. Looking at charts its important to understand the parameters.

Both show declining US imports recently. Your chart more accurately represents the totals though and negates shorts point about "efficiency" quite well.

[shortonsense]

The reason you get so much friction short is because of posts just like this last one. Face it we really haven't peaked yet.

Says you. Ruppert, Simmons and Deffeyes disagree. Don't blame the messenger.

You can point to the "prophets" all you want but normally functioning folks like you and I would admit "THE PEAK" has not necessarily happened yet.

There is an entire thread dedicated to the uncertainty about the peak event. If I recall correctly, your estimate on that uncertainty was near zero, a year or two tops. Mine was larger, a decade or two, based on all the other places which peaked, waited a decade or two, and then peaked some more. The Prophets have picked their date and good or bad, its their claim. You do not have to like the logical conclusions from their claim, but you not liking these conclusions doesn't change their claim. They said 2005. I have not yet found any reference where they retracted these claims. If and when they do, I shall modify my comments accordingly. Of course...if they do, they'll be right back in the same boat and Colins 20 years of guessing as well, and will have completely validated my comments in the Argument Thread as well. So I am as interested in their reversal as you are, but for different reasons.

[mcgowanjm]

May, 2005. Now we're at the 'how much WTI type Crude we can manufacture/produce regardless of EREOI'.

Remember this from the Wayback Machine?:
Nation needs legislative action to spur refinery construction ...
Sep 9, 2005 ... Once 13 refineries operated in Oklahoma; today only five are working in ... contains some incentives for companies to build more refineries, ...
findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4182/is.../ai_n15370817/

Today we're closing them down. Per Memmel, the only place to make money is pulling the stuff out of the ground. Every other point is a Money Loser.

A guarantee that the drop into the Olduvai will be less like a luge and more like a horse falling off the Grand Canyon Trail.

[AirlinePilot]

The refinery business will come back when we work through the inventory a bit and gasoline prices are allowed to climb. Otherwise we are in for a very big wakeup call. Shutting down refineries right and left, losing refining capacity..its ok for the moment, but when we need them, where will they be? If they cant make money, they go out of business.

I guess there is some hope for demand to be low enough for that paradigm to succeed, but frankyl I doubt it, especially with any sort of economic recovery no matter how small it is.