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The Export Land Model

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 30 Jan 2015, 16:39:45

M_B_S wrote:Germanys Oil Import Decline 2014 ~ 2,2% to 2013!


http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/mine ... vember.pdf

ELM is still in place dispite the fact that Germanys economy is the "strongest" in the EU

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Good catch. Can you translate the pdf and maybe extract a few quotes. For us language-challenged Americans?
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 30 Jan 2015, 16:53:55

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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 30 Jan 2015, 18:35:35

M_B_S wrote:http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/statistics/eu-crude-oil-imports
Thanks very much.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 06:33:54

I have more:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics ... nd_imports

Imports
The downturn in the primary production of hard coal, lignite, crude oil, natural gas and more recently nuclear energy led to a situation where the EU was increasingly reliant on primary energy imports in order to satisfy demand, although this situation stabilised in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis. The EU-28’s imports of primary energy exceeded exports by some 922.8 million toe in 2012. The largest net importers of primary energy were generally the most populous EU Member States, with the exception of the United Kingdom and Poland (where indigenous reserves of oil/natural gas and coal remain). Since 2004, the only net exporter of primary energy among the Member States has been Denmark (see Table 2).
The origin of EU-28 energy imports has changed somewhat in recent years, as Russia has maintained its position as the main supplier of crude oil and natural gas and emerged as the leading supplier of solid fuels (see Table 3). In 2012, some 33.7 % of the EU-28’s imports of crude oil were from Russia, slightly below the shares recorded for 2010 (34.7 %) and 2011 (34.8 %). Russia became the principal supplier of solid fuels in 2006, overtaking South Africa, having overtaken Australia in 2004 and Colombia in 2002. Russia’s share of EU-28 solid fuels imports rose from 13.1 % in 2002 to 30.0 % by 2009, before falling somewhat to 25.9 % by 2012. Despite this contraction, Russia remained the primary source of solid fuels imports into the EU in 2012, although its share was only slightly ahead of those recorded for Colombia (23.7 %) and the United States (23.0 %). By contrast, Russia’s share of EU-28 imports of natural gas declined from 45.2 % to 29.5 % between 2002 and 2010, but this trend was reversed with increases in 2011 and 2012. Qatar’s share of EU-28 imports of natural gas rose from less than 1 % in 2002 to 11.0 % in 2011, before dropping back to 8.4 % in 2012.
The security of the EU’s primary energy supplies may be threatened if a high proportion of imports are concentrated among relatively few partners. More than three quarters (76.8 %) of the EU-28’s imports of natural gas in 2012 came from Russia, Norway or Algeria — as such there was a greater concentration of imports than in the previous two years as the same three countries accounted for 71.0 % of natural gas imports in 2010 and 72.0 % in 2011. A similar analysis shows that 53.6 % of EU-28 crude oil imports came from Russia, Norway and Saudi Arabia in 2012, while 72.6 % of hard coal imports were from Russia, Colombia and the United States. Although their import volumes remain relatively small, there was some evidence of new partner countries emerging between 2002 and 2012. This was notably the case for crude oil imports from Nigeria, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, or natural gas imports from Qatar.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 14 Sep 2015, 14:45:19

West Texas..where art though? ;)

Would like to see an update to the global picture on supply, and exports.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 15 Sep 2015, 00:29:28

AP - He's probably doing the same as the Rockman: working 60-70 hours a week trying to find another spot to poke a hole in the ground. LOL
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 15 Sep 2015, 10:28:13

AirlinePilot wrote:West Texas..where art though? ;)

Would like to see an update to the global picture on supply, and exports.


If I did it right this link should take you to the interview he did with Chris Martenson a few days ago.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/9 ... nd-exports
Last edited by Tanada on Tue 15 Sep 2015, 11:08:17, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed link format
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Revi » Tue 15 Sep 2015, 12:07:15

I learned a lot from Jeffrey Brown's talk on Chris Martenson's Peak Prosperity podcast.

1)Why is gas getting cheaper? I was wondering how gasoline could be getting cheaper, and it turns out this condensate is best at making gasoline.

2) Where did the "glut" come from? Apparently the glut is in this ultra light condensate, caused by fracking, and it's piling up all over the world. There is no glut in distillates, such as diesel and heating oil. Hence the price of gasoline keeps going down while the price of diesel and heating oil is holding.

3) Why do the oil trains seem to be blowing up? Unlike crude oil, this stuff is really explosive and once it gets going is a lot like gasoline, so that's why the trains are burning up nowadays.

So, it looks like this will be the case for a little while longer.

I predict that we will end up with very little diesel in a year or two. This does not bode well for farming, as it is presently practiced.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 15 Sep 2015, 12:14:56

So Revi, we can add condensate to all the other faux-oil products out there: corn liquor, gunk-sands, lighter fluid, refinery gain. It's now called vapoures. Notice the e? Very British and smart lol
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Pops » Tue 15 Sep 2015, 12:28:25

Revi wrote:There is no glut in distillates, such as diesel and heating oil. Hence the price of gasoline keeps going down while the price of diesel and heating oil is holding.

You guys crack me up.

Image

For diesel, as the hot summer months come to a close, the important crop harvesting period is upcoming for the agriculture sector. Farmers are an important demand driver for diesel because of the seasonality of their demand increase. Truckers are a large portion of diesel demand but provide more consistent demand month to month. Because the agriculture business is so dependent on the weather for their planting and harvesting, diesel prices can be influenced by bad weather conditions. Heavy rains and freezing temperatures can impact farming operations and diesel demand timing.

Gasoline prices are expected to fall further as winter gasoline blends will replace more expensive summer gasoline across the nation. With another Labor Day and summer vacation season coming to an end, the demand for gasoline will drop off just as diesel demand will pick up for harvest season. Because of the inverse relationship between gasoline and diesel demand peaks, it is typical for diesel to be the cheapest compared to gasoline in the summer months.

As gasoline demand falls off in the winter and harvest season comes to an end, diesel prices generally are at their highest premiums versus gasoline in the November-December time frame. As truck racks begin the switch over to summer gasoline in the spring, diesel prices recover with respect to gasoline prices.

As the trend looks valid again for this year, expect diesel prices to start their upward tick compared to gasoline. The last few years have seen the spread go from 60 cpg to as high as 90 cpg that we saw last year. As GasBuddy put out its end of year projections for gasoline prices in the U.S. to be sub-$2/gal, expect diesel prices to stay below $3/gal as demand picks up.

Read more at https://blog.gasbuddy.com/posts/Diesel- ... 7M52mrG.99
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 15 Sep 2015, 12:34:28

The spread became apparent around 2005 when conventional oil peaked to be replaced with camp-stove gas.
Image
So yeah, Revi is correct.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Pops » Tue 15 Sep 2015, 12:47:54

Only if you choose to ignore that Diesel was cheaper than unleaded as recently as 2 weeks ago due to the increase in gasoline demand.

But then that goes against the storyline that no one wants gasoline anymore...

LoL

The persistent price premium for diesel compared with gasoline from August 2009 until last week reflected a combination of factors including strong global demand for diesel, federal fuel taxes for diesel that are 6 cents/gal higher than those for gasoline, and the higher production cost of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) that was phased in between 2006 and 2010.
Gasoline and diesel have opposite seasonal demand patterns: gasoline demand tends to peak in the summer driving months, while diesel demand generally peaks in the winter heating months. Since January, gasoline demand growth has been unusually strong both in the United States and abroad. Furthermore, although retail gasoline prices in most parts of the country have in recent weeks followed decreasing crude oil prices, elevated retail gasoline prices in California, as a result of ongoing supply disruptions, have raised the U.S. weekly average gasoline retail price.
Tight diesel markets over the past six years have reflected growing diesel demand from developing economies and the switchover to ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) for home heating oil in northeastern states, where more than 80% of U.S. use of oil for space heating occurs. Over the same period, gasoline demand has generally been weak, reflecting increasing vehicle fuel economy and changing consumer driving patterns.
Gasoline demand in the United States began to rise considerably in the latter part of 2014 and through the first half of 2015 as U.S. retail gasoline prices reached some of their lowest levels in years, reflecting the fall in North Sea Brent crude oil prices from an average of $112 per barrel (b) in June 2014 to $48/b in January 2015. Gasoline prices generally followed Brent crude oil prices, falling from $3.69/gal in June 2014 to $2.12/gal in January 2015. Based on the latest data from the Federal Highway Administration, Americans drove a record 987.8 billion miles during the first four months of 2015, topping the previous record of 965.6 billion miles set in the first four months of 2007. Global gasoline demand also increased strongly in the first half of 2015.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22192
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 15 Sep 2015, 13:43:00

I know yeah right. But Westexas and Revi are correct. The proportion of C&C coming from C(ondensate) has increased markedly over the last few years. So by definition the lower end of the sub-45 API mix must be proportionally less.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 13:46:29

Time to revisit this thread in light of the new post at SRSrocco:

WORLD ECONOMIES IN TROUBLE: Middle East Oil Exports Lower Than 40 Years Ago
Yes, it’s true. Middle East net oil exports are less than they were 40 years ago. How could this be? Just yesterday, Zerohedge released a news story stating that OPEC oil production reached a new record high of 34.19 million barrels per day. To the typical working-class stiff, driving a huge four-wheel drive truck pulling a RV and a trailer behind it with three ATV’s on it, this sounds like great news.


Image

This validates Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model. He was a regular active poster here as "Westexas"

It models the decline in oil exports that result when an exporting nation experiences both a peak in oil production and an increase in domestic oil consumption. In such cases, exports decline at a far faster rate than the decline in oil production alone.

The Export Land Model is important to petroleum importing nations because when the rate of global petroleum production peaks and begins to decline, the petroleum available on the world market will decline much more steeply than the decline in total production.

ELM tells us the same thing that ETP does: it doesn't matter how much oil is produced if it doesn't reach the consumer. Folks all over the world are struggling with net-petroleum declines.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 18:01:48

pstarr - Great point. Now consider this: global oil consumption 1976: 58 mm bopd. Now who would like to calculate what the % is of 1976 and 2016 the various production metrics such as ME, OPEC, US, etc.

For instance: what % of global consumption in 1976 and 2016 does the ME NET OIL EXPORT represent? And be careful: does your consumption number include ME consumption?
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 18:32:11

So RM, you are not an ETP skeptic? Like the rest.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby sparky » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 19:04:52

.
Statistics on world crude exports are usually dated , the reference date is 2012 ( 42.5 Mbd )
there is some confusion between crude oil , condensates and non-conventionals
also the re-export of refined products sometimes sneak into the statistics .
to make it more maddening if crude is imported into a country for storage then re-exported , it can be counted twice
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 19:39:37

pstarr - "...you are not an ETP skeptic?" Don't take this the wrong way: have you been living in a cave or did you have a f*cking stroke last night? LOL. Skeptic of predictions about energy??? Hell, sometimes I have momentary doubts when someone predicts the sun will come up the next morning. But for 4 decades I've been listening to one incorrect prediction, big and small, after another so perhaps I'm a tad jaded.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Revi » Thu 08 Dec 2016, 09:07:48

The fact that more and more oil is being used at the source is interesting. I know a lot of people who are living in the Middle East and they are doing it because they are living a pretty good life over there. A lot of people who used to live in the rest of the world end up there. Working people, managers, teachers, etc. We are attracted to the oil. Just like a lot of people went to Texas about 40 years ago. People will go to where the economy is better. I knew people who lived in Dubai, Kuwait and Riyadh. There are people from all over there. There weren't many people there to begin with, so they imported a lot of people to run things.

http://peakoil.com/consumption/middle-e ... -years-ago
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby careinke » Thu 08 Dec 2016, 16:53:13

Revi wrote:The fact that more and more oil is being used at the source is interesting. I know a lot of people who are living in the Middle East and they are doing it because they are living a pretty good life over there. A lot of people who used to live in the rest of the world end up there. Working people, managers, teachers, etc. We are attracted to the oil. Just like a lot of people went to Texas about 40 years ago. People will go to where the economy is better. I knew people who lived in Dubai, Kuwait and Riyadh. There are people from all over there. There weren't many people there to begin with, so they imported a lot of people to run things.

http://peakoil.com/consumption/middle-e ... -years-ago

I was one of those people. :) Let me retire at 49 and gave me a deep distrust of our (US) government and Islam. :(
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