[kublikhan]

Actually it's the best approach there is. There's nothing you can do about decline. trying to convince the world to change it's course will only make your life miserable in frustration.

There are always options. Even in a scenario where society is facing a decline. Some options will invariably be better than others. Promoting good options that mitigate the pain of the decline is far better than living through bad choices that exacerbate and/or ignore it. I don't subscribe to fatalism.

Fatalism is a philosophical doctrine emphasizing the subjugation of all events or actions to fate.
Fatalism generally refers to any of the following ideas:
1. The view that we are powerless to do anything other than what we actually do. Included in this is that man has no power to influence the future, or indeed, his own actions.
2. An attitude of resignation in the face of some future event or events which are thought to be inevitable.

Fatalism

[dsula]

God, grant me the serenity
To accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
and wisdom to know the difference.

Changing the world is not one of the things I can do.

[kublikhan]

Changing the world is not one of the things I can do.

Then forget changing the world. Focus on what you can do here and now. Here we have a bad policy being promoted (Cyprus bank levy). The people let their legislatures know they disapproved of it. The legislature voted it down. A change occurred. Now it looks like the levy might be back on the table, albeit in a more palatable form. The people managed to make a policy change through letting their voice be heard.

[dolanbaker]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21928277
The government of Cyprus has defended a 10bn-euro bailout deal to save its banks from collapse, amid warnings the island faces deep recession.

The agreement protects small savers but depositors with more than 100,000 euros ($130,000; £85,000), many of whom are Russian, face big losses.

Laiki Bank - the country's second largest - will be wound up.

Finance minister Michael Sarris said Cyprus had avoided a "disastrous exit from the eurozone".

In a televised address on Monday evening, President Nicos Anastasiades - who negotiated the deal with the "troika" of the EU, the European Central Bank and the IMF in Brussels - said the agreement was "painful" but the best option under the circumstances.

They really had no choice in the matter.

But!

But later, stock markets were rocked after the head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers suggested that the deal for Cyprus model could form a template in any future bailout.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who as head of the Eurogroup played a key role in the Cyprus negotiations, said the deal represented a new template for resolving future eurozone banking problems.

"If there is a risk in a bank our first question should be 'OK, what are you in the the bank going to do about that?'," he told Reuters and the Financial Times.

Having fleeced the taxpayers of several Eurozone countries in earlier bailouts, they're now after the (big)savers.
More wheels are falling off this juggernaut!

[radon]

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/32104?buffer_share=b4832&utm_source=buffer

Well it happened somehow by accident. Germany has actually created an ‘accidental empire’. There is no master plan; no intention to occupy Europe. It doesn’t have a military basis, so all the talk about a ‘Fourth Reich’ is misplaced. Rather it has an economic basis – it’s about economic power – and it’s interesting to see how in the anticipation of a European catastrophe, with fears that the Eurozone and maybe even the European Union might break down, the landscape of power in Europe has changed fundamentally.
...
I make a distinction between ‘first modernity’ and our current situation. First modernity, which lasted from around the 18th century until perhaps the 1960s or 1970s, was a period where there was a great deal of space for experimentation and we had a lot of answers for the uncertainties that we produced: probability models, insurance mechanisms, and so on. But then because of the success of modernity we are now producing consequences for which we don’t have any answers, such as climate change and the financial crisis. The financial crisis is an example of the victory of a specific interpretation of modernity: neo-liberal modernity after the breakdown of the Communist system, which dictates that the market is the solution and that the more we increase the role of the market, the better. But now we see that this model is failing and we don’t have any answers.

We have to make a distinction between a risk society and a catastrophe society. A catastrophe society would be one in which the motto is ‘too late’: where we give in to the panic of desperation. A risk society in contrast is about the anticipation of future catastrophes in order to prevent them from happening. But because these potential catastrophes are not supposed to happen – the financial system could collapse, or nuclear technology could be a threat to the whole world – we don’t have the basis for experimentation. The rationality of calculating risk doesn’t work anymore. We are trying to anticipate something that is not supposed to happen, which is an entirely new situation.

Take Germany as an example. If we look at Angela Merkel, a few years ago she didn’t believe that Greece posed a major problem, or that she needed to engage with it as an issue. Yet now we are in a completely different situation because she has learned that if you look into the eyes of a potential catastrophe, suddenly new things become possible. Suddenly you think about new institutions, or about the fiscal compact, or about a banking union, because you anticipate a catastrophe which is not supposed to happen. This is a huge mobilising force, but it’s highly ambivalent because it can be used in different ways. It could be used to develop a new vision for Europe, or it could be used to justify leaving the European Union.
...

[Graeme]

The 'green economy' as an engine for growth

The EU has some 19 million unemployed and the trend is pointing upwards. But, new jobs will only come once the economy picks up. Could a new 'green economy' help create those jobs and halt Europe's decline?

The political demands are clear: More renewable energies, more energy efficiency, lower CO² emissions and more environmentally friendly technologies.
For years, European governments have had climate protection high on their agenda. It's a mammoth challenge, but also promises enormous potential for growth and investment.

But the 'green revolution' somehow doesn't seem to be getting off the ground; in part, probably because Europe just has too many crises to deal with at the moment and too many fires to put out, says Jörg Zeuner, chief economist of Germany's KfW bank. "There's a lack of demand and there is too much saving going on in Europe. We have problems with financing because the financial sector is in turmoil and we don't have enough planning security because many countries are restructuring their tax and regulatory systems."



"When you talk about the green economy, it is important that you really approach it long-term, in terms of research and innovation," says Zöllner. It is not enough to simply replace coal-fired power plants with windmills. "What's needed is a real transformation of the economy, which will have an impact on other sectors as well and lead to more investment across the board."

Political leaders need to set up the legal parameters and financial incentives in a way that creates opportunities for investment and a green economy, Zöllner urged. It was also important to deal with general stumbling blocks to investment, regardless of whether they are linked to environmental issues or not, he added. Simply investing in green economy projects will not settle problems, like labor market reform, aging infrastructure, or bureaucratic hurdles.

dw.de

[dolanbaker]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22861577
The Greek government has announced that it will shut down the radio and TV services of the state broadcaster ERT.

A government spokesman said transmissions would cease early on Wednesday.

All employees, numbering at least 2,500, will be suspended until the company reopens "as soon as possible."

It is the latest move in successive rafts of spending cuts and tax rises that the government hope will lead the country out of recession.

"ERT is a case of an exceptional lack of transparency and incredible extravagance. This ends now," government spokesman Simos Kedikoglou said, according to the AFP news agency.

Shutting down the TV service will drive home to the population just how dire the situation is, this could be as much for show as saving money.

[dsula]

Shutting down the TV service will drive home to the population just how dire the situation is, this could be as much for show as saving money.

Hmmm. I thought a state owned TV station is the backbone of any self-respecting authoritarian regime. How are the elite going to control the masses now? I would have shut down the DMV, no body will miss the DMV.

[ROCKMAN]

They apparently don’t plan to give up that easy: “Employees seize Greek State TV and radio HQ after govt-announced suspension”

http://rt.com/news/austerity-greece-state-media-542/

And there appears to be other TV stations still operating. So thank goodness McDonalds can still get there message out. LOL

[dolanbaker]

That doesn't surprise me, this could be as much a government tactic to show the troika that austerity is sparking civil unrest on a grand scale and that they will have to come up with another plan, rather than one that is bleeding the country dry!

Privatisation of all state assets will probably fail as the employees will make those businesses unworkable due to their actions. But, tax evasion by Greeks & foreigners living there is also a key issue that has to be addressed.

As for the "financial crisis", it just proves that the limits to growth, have for all practical purposes, been reached.

[Tanada]

How are things holding in the rest of Europe? Did private money flee the banks after the seizures as predicted?

[dolanbaker]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22889071

A German politician is in London arguing the euro could be abandoned, or at the very least "get rid of the southern Europe countries" from the euro currency.

Former World Bank economist Professor Bernd Lucke said "moving completely back to national currencies is an option" and would help the southern nations to be competitive again.

And he told Andrew Neil: "If we boost their economies, German exports will actually benefit from that."

The former member of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats is now the leader of the euro-sceptic Alternative For Germany party, but said this new party would not receive the level of state funding given to Germany's establish parties.

Lord Strathclyde, a former Tory House of Lords leader, said it showed there were many across Europe in line with his party on the EU.

[dolanbaker]

How are things holding in the rest of Europe? Did private money flee the banks after the seizures as predicted?

I don't think there's much private money left in the Irish banks anyway, most of it was "liberated" at the start of the crisis and has not returned.

Irish housebuilding activity has collapsed (in a very dramatic way) by 90%, it's hard to imagine an entire economic sector of a country collapsing so completely.

It should be remembered that during the "Celtic Tiger" years, construction was about four times the size it should have been.

[dolanbaker]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24328356

Eurozone inflation is running at its lowest rate in more than three years.

Consumer price inflation fell to an annual rate of 1.1% in September from 1.3% in August according to Europe's statistics agency Eurostat.

A fall in energy prices helped to ease inflation. Price rises in food, alcohol and tobacco moderated, also helping.

Economists say slowing inflation gives the European Central Bank (ECB) more freedom to help the eurozone's weak economic recovery.

The ECB targets an annual inflation rate of below, but close to 2%.

"The ECB has plenty of scope to loosen monetary policy further," said James Howat, European economist, at Capital Economics in a research note.

"At the very least, further action to boost liquidity in the banking sector looks increasingly likely."

Wind up those presses again, the bottomless pit needs refilling!

[kublikhan]

The times when state bonds underwent haircut or ‘debt restructuring’ to easy the national debts seem to be over. Cyprus showed the way with ‘seizing’ 50% of savings over 100,000 euro. While the International Monetary Fund and the Eurozone quarrel over a possible Greek debt haircut and the debt/bailout program sustainability, the IMF-technocrats come with a new revolutionary idea:
"to impose a tax of 10% on savings in order to solve debt problems in eurozone member countries."

I suppose, this proposal is being probably discussed within the eurozone in general and Germany in particular under the table and behind closed doors. And that’s why Germany vehemently opposes the possibility of a new Greek debt haircut.

If the next haircut of Greek debt will materialize with a 10% tax on all savings -over or below 100,000 euro- there would be no EUROzone citizen to leave his money in the banks.

Does IMF plan super tax of 10% on all Eurozone savings to solve national debt problems?

This is a story that should raise an eyebrow or two on every single face in Europe, and beyond. The IMF talks about a proposal to tax everybody's savings, in the Eurozone. The IMF refers to a few studies, like one from 1990 by Barry Eichengreen on historical precedents, one from April 2013 by Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen, who saw a 10% general asset tax as needed to repair government debt levels.

It should probably be obvious that there is one key sentence here, one which explains why the IMF is seriously considering the capital levy (supertax) option, even if it's presented as hypothetical:
"The appeal is that such a tax, if it is implemented before avoidance is possible, and there is a belief that it will never be repeated, does not distort behavior (and may be seen by some as fair)."

It may all sound far-fetched to you now, and most people will still cling on to the idea that "they wouldn't do such a thing". But that the IMF proposes it at all, and so openly, suggests that they might, if only they can figure out how. Not the IMF itself, mind you, they don't collect taxes, but then again they have been involved very intimately with the EU, the ECB and Europe's national governments, in for instance the Cyprus bail-in, which will in all likelihood serve as a blueprint for future "restructurings".

The IMF Proposes A 10% Supertax On All Eurozone Household Savings

Cyprus felt like a test run for doing something like this on a larger scale. I wonder if this will actually come to pass?

[argyle]

How are things holding in the rest of Europe? Did private money flee the banks after the seizures as predicted?

no.. it did not..

EU still has a lot of work to do (banking union, etc), but it's slowly getting better I think.. but there is still a lot of debt in the system that will need adressing (but that is for most of the developed economies (japan, US,..)

[Loki]

Europe moves nearer Japan-style deflation trap with shock price falls

All key measures of eurozone inflation fell dramatically in October, stunning the markets and leaving the region dangerously close to a Japan-style deflation trap.

Consumer price inflation (CPI) plunged from 1.1pc to 0.7pc, the lowest since the financial crash in 2008-2009. “This is a massive downward surprise,” said Gizem Kara from BNP Paribas.

A string of debt-crippled states are now sliding into deflation, with Italy buckling over the late summer. The underlying rate is even lower once austerity-linked tax rises are stripped out

The shock data came as EMU-wide unemployment jumped to a record 12.2pc in September, with a further 74,000 people losing their jobs. Youth jobless rates reached 40.2pc in Italy, 57.6pc in Greece and 56.6pc in Spain.

“This is playing out in a very similar way to Japan in the early 1990s,” said Albert Edwards from Societe Generale. “All it needs now is an unexpected recession and Europe will slide into outright deflation. The risk is a trade shock from Asia. That is when the markets will start to panic."...

Even German inflation is at a three-year low of 1.4pc. Prices fell 0.4pc in Bavaria and 0.3pc in Saxony in October. While the Bundesbank has been fretting about a local house price boom, the average rise in property has been less than 3pc over the past three years.

Julian Callow from Barclays said the fall in the eurozone’s core inflation rate (without energy and food) to 0.8pc is evidence of powerful forces at work in the world economy. “China’s fixed capital investment reached $4 trillion last year. The sheer scale of this is leading to huge over-capacity in manufacturing and is transmitting a deflationary impulse through the global system,” he said. ...

The latest inflation data show Italy’s CPI rate fell by 0.3pc in both September and October, despite a rise in VAT taxes that should have pushed it higher.

Over the past three months, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia and Latvia have all seen price falls once extra taxes are stripped out. It is a similar pattern in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic, with Poland and Denmark close behind. The entire region risks sliding into a deflation trap if recovery falters.

[dolanbaker]

The PIIGS lose an "I".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25362493
The Irish Republic's exit from its bailout rescue is a "milestone" but not the end of the road, the country's finance minister has said.

Michael Noonan told a press conference marking the exit that Ireland's deficit and debt was still far too high.

Ireland has become the first eurozone nation to complete the lending deal put in place by a group of international lenders, known as the troika.

The country was rescued with an 85bn euro ($117bn; £71bn) package

Meanwhile.. South of the channel

Triple dip?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25402881
France was a very different story, with its PMI reading falling to a seven-month low of 47.0. The figure suggests an accelerating contraction, and point to a decline in economic activity for the current three-month period.

If that is confirmed by data for gross domestic product, GDP, that would be the second consecutive quarter of falling production of goods and services in France.

In other words, a recession as the term is often used. It would be the second in rapid succession.

[ROCKMAN]

d - Exactly what metric qualifies a country to PIIGS' membership. Ireland may be doing better but going into debt by $117 billion doesn't strike me as great news.

[ROCKMAN]

MOSCOW, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Russian gas exports to Europe in 2013 jumped 16 percent year on year to reach a record high of 161.5 billion cubic metres, preliminary data from Gazprom Export showed on Monday, as shipments from Norway and other sources decreased. The data from the export arm of Gazprom covers supplies to the European Union and Turkey under long-term contracts and excludes Gazprom's trading activity. Gazprom Export said the average Russian gas price in Europe stood at slightly above $380 per 1,000 cubic metres, which was below the $400 registered in 2012, when exports slumped by 7 percent to 138.8 bcm

I did the math: the EU and Turkey bought about $61 billion worth of NG from Russia.