Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil prices?

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 12 May 2018, 17:59:20

I am not a Trump supporter or voter but can see the deference between his "Rocket Man" first position on the North Korean problem and where that has taken both the USA, our allies and North Korea today. Perhaps he is crazy like a fox or more likely the enemy fears he is.
If Trump can finish up with North Korea in a positive way and then turn to Iran and achieve similar results everybody will have to concede it as a great diplomatic victory.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8873
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Observerbrb » Sat 12 May 2018, 18:27:59

vtsnowedin wrote:I am not a Trump supporter or voter but can see the deference between his "Rocket Man" first position on the North Korean problem and where that has taken both the USA, our allies and North Korea today. Perhaps he is crazy like a fox or more likely the enemy fears he is.
If Trump can finish up with North Korea in a positive way and then turn to Iran and achieve similar results everybody will have to concede it as a great diplomatic victory.


I don't see how withdrawing a previous pact unilaterally (a pact which was not broken by any part) will make other countries think that you will respect the same deal with them afterwards.

I am not even confident that North Korea will agree on it, let's see what happens. He could end as a true genius or as a dangerous pyromaniac.
Observerbrb
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 370
Joined: Mon 08 Dec 2014, 14:24:48

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 12 May 2018, 18:39:16

A pack that let them restart in ten years plus any cheating they could get away with in the meantime wasn't much of a deal to begin with. But yes it remains to be seen if Trump can really finalize agreements that are good for the world or not.
Hoping for the best and I think both issues have a real positive chance (one more then the other) as both their futures would be brighter as full law abiding members of the international community.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8873
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby radon1 » Sat 12 May 2018, 18:40:47

Imagine if, for whatever reason, the price of oil wouldn't have gone up but rather stayed below this "affordability curve" or whatnot. The etp trash would still be bonkers but the proponents would still be convinced that it holds.

A wider issue is, how many other existing false theories are supported by incidentally favourable data?
radon1
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1977
Joined: Thu 27 Jun 2013, 05:09:44

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 12 May 2018, 19:04:00

radon1 wrote:Imagine if, for whatever reason, the price of oil wouldn't have gone up but rather stayed below this "affordability curve" or whatnot. The etp trash would still be bonkers but the proponents would still be convinced that it holds.

A wider issue is, how many other existing false theories are supported by incidentally favourable data?

Real data will destroy any false theories as soon as it becomes available. Incidental favorable data will seldom if ever last long enough to pass the prediction date of the false theory. Unfortunately many theories predict events decades into the future so one has to wait those decades before the truth becomes apparent.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8873
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Observerbrb » Sat 12 May 2018, 19:13:39

radon1 wrote:Imagine if, for whatever reason, the price of oil wouldn't have gone up but rather stayed below this "affordability curve" or whatnot. The etp trash would still be bonkers but the proponents would still be convinced that it holds.

A wider issue is, how many other existing false theories are supported by incidentally favourable data?


That's the whole history of science. Someone comes up with an idea describing how planets, the sun and other celestial objects orbit the Earth. He even invents epycicles and the theory seems to fit in, God placed the Earth at the center of the Universe so it makes full sense. However, more and more celestial bodies and planets are discovered and the explanation needs to be amended time after time. Complexity grows in a huge way and the theory is finally discarded, it cannot explain all phenomena. Another theory takes its place, now accepted by everyone until Einstein tears everything up.

I am not claiming shortonoil was a modern Plato or Aristotle, but at least he tried. I think that his theory somehow is partially valid: The top for oil prices might be becoming less and less.
Observerbrb
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 370
Joined: Mon 08 Dec 2014, 14:24:48

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 12 May 2018, 19:21:04

Observerbrb wrote:
radon1 wrote:Imagine if, for whatever reason, the price of oil wouldn't have gone up but rather stayed below this "affordability curve" or whatnot. The etp trash would still be bonkers but the proponents would still be convinced that it holds.

A wider issue is, how many other existing false theories are supported by incidentally favourable data?


That's the whole history of science. Someone comes up with an idea describing how planets, the sun and other celestial objects orbit the Earth. He even invents epycicles and the theory seems to fit in, God placed the Earth at the center of the Universe so it makes full sense. However, more and more celestial bodies and planets are discovered and the explanation needs to be amended time after time. Complexity grows in a huge way and the theory is finally discarded, it cannot explain all phenomena. Another theory takes its place, now accepted by everyone until Einstein tears everything up.

I am not claiming shortonoil was a modern Plato or Aristotle, but at least he tried. I think that his theory somehow is partially valid: The top for oil prices might be becoming less and less.

Shorty or the Hill's group are probably right that oil will one day be so hard to bring to the surface that it's possible uses will not be worth the effort to bring it up, but they are way off on predicting that date to be now or perhaps even any time this century.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8873
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 12 May 2018, 22:12:01

Observerbrb wrote:That's the whole history of science. Someone comes up with an idea describing how planets, the sun and other celestial objects orbit the Earth. He even invents epycicles and the theory seems to fit in


Epicycles are rationalizations for a failing theory and there are many examples that have been trotted out by doomers since 2008 to explain why we haven't devolved into small roving bands of cannibals but rather that BAU has continued apace. ETP is/was one of them.

I don't begrudge Short for coming up with ETP. What I didn't respect was the arrogance that came along with it. He wanted to be treated as if he had come up with the grand unified field theory of doom and anyone who challenged it was only worthy of ridicule. It was all about what ETP would do to provide Short with a modicum of ego gratification and cash-flow. The best way for a theory to rise to the top is to allow anyone and everyone to take potshots at them...and fail. If a theory is correct, you don't have to protect it with ad hominem insults and swagger.
[space to store bad short-term prediction currently vacant]
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1813
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 May 2018, 22:41:48

asg70 wrote: If a theory is correct, you don't have to protect it with ad hominem insults and swagger.

And, if a credible scientist has holes shot in one of their theories, then they either do further work and improve the theory to patch up the holes, come up with a new and better theory, or say "oops", admit they were wrong, and move on.

They don't spend months ad-homming every person with a valid objection, unless they want to have zero credibility re their scientific work.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5413
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 13 May 2018, 01:15:27

The cannibalization has already started. The oil industry is cannibalizing on existing oil fields that are online. The oil civilization is cannibalizing on existing infrastructure.

Business as usual is no longer possible after the Energy Half Way Point is reached. The Etp Model is a BAU model and can therefore only be valid until the EHWP (EROI 2:1) is reached...after that point the cannibalization starts.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 13 May 2018, 12:19:02

Y - "The cannibalization has already started. The oil industry is cannibalizing on existing oil fields that are online. The oil civilization is cannibalizing on existing infrastructure." Companies have periodically "cannibalized" fields owned by other companies since the 1800's when the US petroleum industry began developing. Perhaps you should spend a tad more time studying the history of the US petroleum history.

vt - "Shorty or the Hill's group are probably right that oil will one day be so hard to bring to the surface...". I suspect you don't mean the cost of producing exist new but developing new production. The US has a lot of wells that will produce a positive cash flow at $10-$15per bbl. Granted not much but we've been producing 100's of thousands of stripper wells profitably at such rates.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11031
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 13 May 2018, 15:27:30

ROCKMAN wrote:
vt - "Shorty or the Hill's group are probably right that oil will one day be so hard to bring to the surface...".

I suspect you don't mean the cost of producing exist new but developing new production. The US has a lot of wells that will produce a positive cash flow at $10-$15per bbl. Granted not much but we've been producing 100's of thousands of stripper wells profitably at such rates.
The quote is a fragment of a sentence and does not convey the same thought as the complete sentence does.
Shorty or the Hill's group are probably right that oil will one day be so hard to bring to the surface that it's possible uses will not be worth the effort to bring it up, but they are way off on predicting that date to be now or perhaps even any time this century.

A stripper eventually runs out of clothes and even a stripper well in Texas will probably run completely dry economically in a hundred years. :)
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8873
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 14 May 2018, 00:58:47

The oil age will have a long tail...but just a tail of stripper wells?
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 May 2018, 14:18:07

Yoshua wrote:The oil age will have a long tail...but just a tail of stripper wells?

As though there are no big reserves in deep water. As though there are no big reserves outside the US for fracking, at the right price. As though no more significant finds will occur after date X.

Just stripper wells. Sure. ETP was more credible than that idea.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5413
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 14 May 2018, 14:36:46

BW Hill actually owns a couple of stripper wells. He intends to put them in production when that day comes.
Last edited by Yoshua on Mon 14 May 2018, 15:48:48, edited 1 time in total.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby marmico » Mon 14 May 2018, 15:34:47

BW Hill actually owns a couple of stripper wells. He intens to put them in production when that day comes


ROTFLMFAO.

May 2018 is ~$70 WTI, 2021 is <$2 WTI. Let me introduce Yoshua the Bozo to BW Hill the Bozo.
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 761
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 14 May 2018, 15:58:49

The WTI is up 75% since last summer...but bloombergs commodity price index has basically been flat. There are some oil importing nations who are exporting commodities that are going broke right now while their currencies are crashing.

WTI 70 USD doesn't seem go down well for some nations. When those nations start to default on their dollar denominated debt...we will have another global financial crisis.

Something is broken.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 May 2018, 16:03:12

Yoshua wrote:The WTI is up 75% since last summer...but bloombergs commodity price index has basically been flat. There are some oil importing nations who are exporting commodities that are going broke right now while their currencies are crashing.

WTI 70 USD doesn't seem go down well for some nations. When those nations start to default on their dollar denominated debt...we will have another global financial crisis.

Something is broken.

Let's pretend $100ish oil was NO PROBLEM for the global economy from mid 2010 to mid 2014, but $70 WTI will be the cause of a global financial crisis. :roll:

You should invest your "talent" for economic predictions at zerohedge.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5413
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 14 May 2018, 18:15:48

Yoshua wrote:The WTI is up 75% since last summer...but bloombergs commodity price index has basically been flat. There are some oil importing nations who are exporting commodities that are going broke right now while their currencies are crashing.

WTI 70 USD doesn't seem go down well for some nations. When those nations start to default on their dollar denominated debt...we will have another global financial crisis.

Something is broken.
Last summer the Bloomberg commodity index(BCOM) was around 82 points. Today it's over 90. That's around a 10% increase in less than a year. 10% growth in under a year is your definition of "flat"? A mere 10% growth year over year is your definition of "broken"?

Yoshua wrote:The global economy is slowing down right now.


The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become broader and stronger. This new World Economic Outlook report projects that advanced economies as a group will continue to expand above their potential growth rates this year and next before decelerating, while growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off.

World growth strengthened in 2017 to 3.8 percent, with a notable rebound in global trade. It was driven by an investment recovery in advanced economies, continued strong growth in emerging Asia, a notable upswing in emerging Europe, and signs of recovery in several commodity exporters. Global growth is expected to tick up to 3.9 percent this year and next, supported by strong momentum, favorable market sentiment, accommodative financial conditions, and the domestic and international repercussions of expansionary fiscal policy in the United States. The partial recovery in commodity prices should allow conditions in commodity exporters to gradually improve.
World Economic Outlook, April 2018 Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

Global economic activity continues to firm up. Global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and ½ percentage point higher than in 2016. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent. Emerging market equity indices have risen further since August, lifted by the improved near-term outlook for commodity exporters.
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2018

Yoshua, you continue to spew out BS that is simply false.
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4169
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 14 May 2018, 23:58:43

The commodity index has been basically flat since 2015.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOM:IND
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

PreviousNext

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests