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The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil prices?

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 14:16:05

If history can predict the future, then shall we call it: The Deuche Bag crisis.

Image

The guy who made the WTI graph didn't know if the oil price would rise or fall either, but he knew that Monday would be interesting.

Jordan is now in crisis. People are violently protesting against rising fuel prices, rising food prices, rising taxes and poverty.

One guy in Amman was sitting in the street playing the Arabic lute or oud...as the city was burning down.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 14:45:51

History Repeats itself because the sheeple can't see beyond what they are fed. Right at nose and ground level.

Of course we are headed from a gigantic crash. We are running out of oil, the fuel that drives the world's economy. I wouldn't be surprised if the ETP price map corrects this year. Not taking bets. Just watching the world go down.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 15:19:01

pstarr wrote:History Repeats itself because the sheeple can't see beyond what they are fed. Right at nose and ground level.

Of course we are headed from a gigantic crash. We are running out of oil, the fuel that drives the world's economy. I wouldn't be surprised if the ETP price map corrects this year. Not taking bets. Just watching the world go down.

No we are not running out of oil. We are approaching the halfway point in total world production but that means we still have as much oil to produce and use as the total we have used to this date. The problem is we now have twice as many people wanting to use that oil as we had a few decades ago so we will burn our way through the second half a lot faster then the first one. The solution will be of course higher prices to depress the demand to match the actual supply available which will make all of us pay more dearly for our oil products and hopefully lead us to use them more frugally and seek substitutes. The actual future price of oil will be set buy the success or failure in those efficiency and substitution efforts.
Is the world coming to an end? Not likely. But we will be living in interesting times which is the usual case by the way.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 16:04:06

"The actual future price of oil will be set buy the success or failure in those efficiency and substitution efforts."

There is where you confusion resides. The future price of oil will be zero, as the energy (and price) cost to produce oil exceeds the energy (and thus income, jobs, and money) available to pay for the oil. Read up on your Etp. It explains that stuff.

As for substitutions? How well is that going? Do you still drive to work, for groceries? In an ICE? I also drive for groceries in an ICE. You can blame Trump or Elon if you want, if that makes you feel smug for not ushering in the Golden Age of EV's.

I blame all of us. We could have easily started by electrifying our rail transport system decades ago. A nation-wide public transport system (100x more energy efficient) would require public money. The Common Weal. Not this crap popularity contest we have for a government. Too late. So sorry
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 16:56:22

pstarr wrote:"The actual future price of oil will be set buy the success or failure in those efficiency and substitution efforts."

There is where you confusion resides. The future price of oil will be zero, as the energy (and price) cost to produce oil exceeds the energy (and thus income, jobs, and money) available to pay for the oil. Read up on your Etp. It explains that stuff.

As for substitutions? How well is that going? Do you still drive to work, for groceries? In an ICE? I also drive for groceries in an ICE. You can blame Trump or Elon if you want, if that makes you feel smug for not ushering in the Golden Age of EV's.

I blame all of us. We could have easily started by electrifying our rail transport system decades ago. A nation-wide public transport system (100x more energy efficient) would require public money. The Common Weal. Not this crap popularity contest we have for a government. Too late. So sorry

There is another place where ETP gets it totally wrong. Oil will never go to zero. Stripper wells in Texas or Iran or KSA for that matter will not suddenly get more expensive to pump and they may be converted to solar powered electric pumps allowing an almost direct conversion of solar energy to liquid fuel.
New exploration into the deepest seas or in regions with little or no prospect of success will indeed stop one day but the wringing out of the last recoverable barrel will continue as long as the product brought up can be sold for more then the cost of the pumping.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 18:11:50

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:History Repeats itself because the sheeple can't see beyond what they are fed. Right at nose and ground level.

Of course we are headed from a gigantic crash. We are running out of oil, the fuel that drives the world's economy. I wouldn't be surprised if the ETP price map corrects this year. Not taking bets. Just watching the world go down.


Like it "went down" every year the past 10 years, or the past 50 years, depending on which Cassandras are making bad predictions. :roll:

If you can't ever see well enough to get it right, why should anyone listen to you? And why aren't you calling yourself sheeple?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 18:18:19

vtsnowedin wrote:

There is another place where ETP gets it totally wrong. Oil will never go to zero. Stripper wells in Texas or Iran or KSA for that matter will not suddenly get more expensive to pump and they may be converted to solar powered electric pumps allowing an almost direct conversion of solar energy to liquid fuel.
[/quote]
Yup. Even if in three to five decades green energy can be used for 99% of transportation, heating, electricity, etc., you'd still have the demand for things like the plastics that come from crude oil.

And unless substitutes for those cost roughly zero (assuming substitutes for all oil products can even be found), crude oil won't be going to zero.

Most reasonable estimates I've seen call for a rather substantial demand for oil for things like plastics in the future, regardless of what happens for transportation. (Call it ballpark 40% of current demand minimum, factoring in future global economic growth, and perhaps much more).

But the ETP supporters, using hand waving and no understanding of eonomics want to pretend that things like supply and demand don't matter.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 18:22:04

Yoshua wrote:If history can predict the future, then shall we call it: The Deuche Bag crisis.

Image

The guy who made the WTI graph didn't know if the oil price would rise or fall either, but he knew that Monday would be interesting.

Jordan is now in crisis. People are violently protesting against rising fuel prices, rising food prices, rising taxes and poverty.

One guy in Amman was sitting in the street playing the Arabic lute or oud...as the city was burning down.

So SPECIFICALLY, what are you forecasting? And when?

Because just saying there is a protest somewhere in the world is basically saying nothing as far as predicting anything meaningful. You can see that, right?

Oh, and when oil hits $2ish in 2021 re the ETP MAP price forecast due to the world economy collapsing, be SURE and remind us of how the ETP was right after all.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 20:17:46

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:

There is another place where ETP gets it totally wrong. Oil will never go to zero. Stripper wells in Texas or Iran or KSA for that matter will not suddenly get more expensive to pump and they may be converted to solar powered electric pumps allowing an almost direct conversion of solar energy to liquid fuel.

Yup. Even if in three to five decades green energy can be used for 99% of transportation, heating, electricity, etc., you'd still have the demand for things like the plastics that come from crude oil.

And unless substitutes for those cost roughly zero (assuming substitutes for all oil products can even be found), crude oil won't be going to zero.

Most reasonable estimates I've seen call for a rather substantial demand for oil for things like plastics in the future, regardless of what happens for transportation. (Call it ballpark 40% of current demand minimum, factoring in future global economic growth, and perhaps much more).

But the ETP supporters, using hand waving and no understanding of eonomics want to pretend that things like supply and demand don't matter.[/quote]
You have been on this site for nine years and haven't figured out how to use the quote functions properly? That has to say something about the quality of your posts and opinions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 20:21:28

Wait a minute. Perhaps there is something going on here beyond our control. I retract my criticism while further investigating what is going on.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 20:43:54

http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 20:44:58

vtsnowedin wrote:Wait a minute. Perhaps there is something going on here beyond our control. I retract my criticism while further investigating what is going on.

Yes, rotten formatting and silly thoughts are what is going on here.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 21:20:28

Yes, rotten formatting and silly thoughts are what is going on here.


and you have contributed to this conversation how?

If you have something to contribute that moves the needle then do so. Otherwise, your character is in question.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 22:25:41

rockdoc123 wrote:
Yes, rotten formatting and silly thoughts are what is going on here.


and you have contributed to this conversation how?

If you have something to contribute that moves the needle then do so. Otherwise, your character is in question.

My contribution? Here on this thread? Thanks for the opportunity :)

I have repeatedly pointed out that 6 years of $100/barrel crude annually sent more than $120 billion dollars of American money overseas to our enemies in the ME and elsewhere. And that during the same period the average American driver lost $2,000 also each and every year in extra gasoline expenses. A family of four lost almost $10,000 per year. And you silly willies don't believe it caused the Greatest Recession. ha ha ha

But then what do I know? I am not an oil company flack. Or intern
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 04 Jun 2018, 12:31:31

vtsnowedin wrote:Wait a minute. Perhaps there is something going on here beyond our control. I retract my criticism while further investigating what is going on.

I appreciate the retraction.

I'm not sure what happened, looking back upthread.

I will say that I try to use the quote function correctly, and am pretty confident I get it right about 99% of the time. I also generally try to proof read what I write for blatant errors, though being human, and more easily distracted in my old age, I'm sure things get by me.

So while I may well deserve criticisim for botching the specific post in question (I'm not sure what happened now, to be honest), I'm fully confident I'm one of the people who:

1). Try to use the quote function properly.

2). Try to get flagrant, frequent violators of that principle to make more effort to do the same.

Either way I definitely don't think it's fair or reasonable to assume one messed up post means someone (anyone) isn't worth listening to.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 04 Jun 2018, 12:41:12

rockdoc123 wrote:
Yes, rotten formatting and silly thoughts are what is going on here.


and you have contributed to this conversation how?

If you have something to contribute that moves the needle then do so. Otherwise, your character is in question.

Hear! Hear!

I'll sign up for having fouled up a quote. Got distracted and forgot to proof read or something. MY BAD.

However, at least I don't constantly post the same or similar nonsensical uncited opinions, or rely on fact free Cassandra blogs for my "data". And at least I try to make an overall contribution to the site.

Like you used to years ago, at least on some topics, pstarr.

As others have asked you what happened? If you're not even trying to contribute, what's the point in spending time here?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Jun 2018, 14:22:33

pstarr – “The future price of oil will be zero, as the energy (and price) cost to produce oil exceeds the energy (and thus income, jobs, and money) available to pay for the oil.” As I’ve gone over the details dozens of times I’ll not waste space again. You and a few others continue to expose your ignorance of the relatively small amount of energy it takes to both PRODUCE and EXPLORE for oil/NG. Consider that when oil prices fell below $30/bbl we still had 325 rigs drilling for NEW oil reserves. A lot less then the peak but still not zero. Even more important virtually no company abandoned producing wells by any meaningful amount. Yes: those wells continue depleting. But they were not abandoned. And now 861 rigs are still drilling for oil.

Of course, I can only address the drilling and production side of the equation. But the primary energy used to refine oil is derived from NG that is burned to distill the various components of oil into individual products. A very insignificant amount of the Btu content of a bbl of oil is consumed in the refining process. Gasoline, diesel, etc. are not created in the refining process: the already exist in the oil and only require separation into those individual components. Past posts exclaiming that there was nearly a 100% loss of the Btu in oil during the refining process was ridiculous and exposed a complete ignorance of the refining process. As far as the profitability of refining it is equally ridiculous to claim that refineries lose money in the process. What does vary is the amount of revenue generated: as prices increase sale volumes are reduced a fewer consumers can afford the higher prices. But those that do continue purchasing refinery products continue generating profit margins for the refineries.

Similarly companies that deliver refinery products as well as those that sell them at the retail level continue to be profitable regardless of the consumer price of those product. Otherwise those companies would not conduct business.

The only way to imagine the price for a bbl of oil going to $0 is to imagine a world which has no use for any oil. And that would take a f*cking weird imagination IMHO. LOL.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Jun 2018, 20:34:26

Brazil will totally collapse before 2020 and you people just sit there and ignore it. Unbelievable.

100's of millions of RPG totin nothing to lose people headed your way. What are you going to do? Phone the police to keep order....Hahahahaha....Fuggetaboutit.

Scamerica cannot even afford helicopters to police the urban slums.

Its over, people.

5 billion will become unfundable liabilities by 2023 when the Permian collapses and Oil Giant Fields production nosedives. What are you going to do? Welcome them with open arms?

Admit it, you will be begging for nuclear annihilation if only to stop the never before experienced stench from the rotting bodies.

55 million dead in WW2. 5 Billion dead by 2025. Holy chit, people, its impossible to even comprehend.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 05 Jun 2018, 06:37:50

While there is two hundred million people in Brazil I'm pretty sure they don't all have an RPG to carry.
If they start coming north in armed gangs we will have to drown them in the Panama canal.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 05 Jun 2018, 11:25:20

Yes things are f*cking weird on this side.
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