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The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil prices?

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 17:11:25

ralfy wrote:When prices drop because of commodities market crashes, then oil industries suffer because they have large amounts of debt to pay. When prices rise as rate hikes are needed to rein in debt, consumers suffer because their disposable income is not that high. With that, businesses suffer as well because their sales don't increase as much, and that means investors will eventually be affected as well.

Behind all that is rising energy cost to extract more oil, and with that increasing debt needed to do so. And since there's no way to reverse that energy cost because of limits to growth, then the only response is to throw more money at fire that's becoming stronger.

And this may perhaps happen some day, but in the current world with recent economic data overall, reality says things aren't working that way. The failure of the ETP MAP this year is just an example of that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 17:14:12

Cog wrote:One would have thought that since the etp model was dead and buried, it's adherents would have reevaluated their doom projections. Sadly, it has only made them double down on doom. A desperate attempt to be right for once.

Um, to me this looks like BAU for fast crash doomers. Many short term predictions. Almost all wrong. Instead of admitting they're wrong, just try more nonsense.

Note: I'm only talking about the folks who seem incapable of learning and behave like this. Not about, for example, former short term doomers who have modified their thinking to longer term doom, based on real world data.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 17:19:20

StarvingLion wrote:Its hilarious that the Premier Green Paradise (Hydro, Biomass, Ethanol) on Earth is totally collapsing because it cannot afford diesel fuel. Didn't marmico just tell us weeks ago that liquid fuels have never been more affordable...ooops egg on face. I guess Brazil needs solar on roof to "prosper" while they collapse.


Let's pretend Brazil and its economic incompetence in recent years is the entire world. :roll:

Just as you like to pretend struggling GE is a stand-in for the entire world's stock markets.

Do you really expect to seem remotely credible to anyone except the fast crash doomers who completely ignore, are ignorant of, or both -- real world economic data and trends?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 17:22:58

StarvingLion wrote:Currencies plunging in value. We’re on the brink of a global crisis, and if it happens, all hell will break loose.


Like the US$? You, know, the ones clowns like shortonoil were recently claiming were worth "less than toilet paper". And yet, even as some weak currencies are falling the US dollar is rising. Imagine that.

If cherry picking meant anything, maybe your posts occasionally would. :razz:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 17:24:14

According to Outcaste-Loser, there is definitely a top for oil prices, but it will never ever be attained because the Magic of the Market will . . . abracadabra
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. . . pull an oil unicorn from our butt hat
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 17:26:58

Cog wrote:One would have thought that since the etp model was dead and buried, it's adherents would have reevaluated their doom projections. Sadly, it has only made them double down on doom. A desperate attempt to be right for once.

So who are these 'adherents' you so roundly despise?

I dare you to name one. Just one. Okay Cog?
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 17:46:40

If Outcast does not believe they"re is a top price for oil than he is not following his precious economic axioms haha :razz:
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 18:06:11

onlooker wrote:If Outcast does not believe they"re is a top price for oil than he is not following his precious economic axioms haha :razz:

Ironic, huh?
The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function. F. Scott Fitzgerald, "The Crack-Up", Esquire Magazine (February 1936).

Is Outcast_Loser functional? Can he/she still sit up and take nutrition?
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 01:49:26

The Etp Model is a best case scenario. It uses the highest theoretical energy efficiency value in petroleum production which is 71% and gives the dead state in 2030.

The MAC uses 62% energy efficiency in petroleum production and therefore gives the dead state in 2022.

The Etp Model is for optimists...and it also gives a suggestion how to solve our energy death...or at least how to prolong life by using the crude straight in crude oil engines.

Europe is allowing its old oil refineries to just vitter away and uses a lot of diesel engines that can take crude oil straight.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 07:16:48

Yoshua wrote:The Etp Model is a best case scenario. It uses the highest theoretical energy efficiency value in petroleum production which is 71% and gives the dead state in 2030.

The MAC uses 62% energy efficiency in petroleum production and therefore gives the dead state in 2022.

The Etp Model is for optimists...and it also gives a suggestion how to solve our energy death...or at least how to prolong life by using the crude straight in crude oil engines.

Europe is allowing its old oil refineries to just vitter away and uses a lot of diesel engines that can take crude oil straight.

A best case scenario for optimists? :lol: :razz:
It is a prediction of imminent and complete doom and is a complete failure both in its timing predictions and the severity of the results predicted.
And by the way other then the Saudis burning some of their crude straight into steam boilers I know of no one running crude straight into a diesel engine of any kind in Europe or anywhere else. Why would they as refined diesel is cheap to make energy wise and provides the least amount of wear and tear on the engines and unrefined crude varies in viscosity so much it would be impossible to calibrate the injector pumps not to mention the sulfur and water contents etc .
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 08:19:04

Man and Wärtsilä are producing crude oil engines with 50% fuel efficiency. They can be used to run the operation on offshore oil rigs. They can even handle vanadium.

No need to run to the gas station to buy diesel, just use the that you pumping up straight.

The Etp Model has so far been 95% correct. This year the oil price has been trying to test higher oil prices. The result has been that EM economies have been hit by a crisis related to high fuel prices.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 08:51:36

Yoshua wrote:Man and Wärtsilä are producing crude oil engines with 50% fuel efficiency. They can be used to run the operation on offshore oil rigs. They can even handle vanadium.

No need to run to the gas station to buy diesel, just use the that you pumping up straight.

The Etp Model has so far been 95% correct. This year the oil price has been trying to test higher oil prices. The result has been that EM economies have been hit by a crisis related to high fuel prices.

If you read Wartsila brochure you can see that they list crude oil as a fuel possibility for their multi fuel engines but none of the power plants they show as examples use crude, even those placed in oil producing countries.
https://cdn.wartsila.com/docs/default-s ... f4dbb45_16
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 10:16:15

"Wärtsilä gas engines operate on a wide selection of gas types. They are also available as multi-fuel versions, capable of operating on both natural gas and liquid fuel (light fuel oil, heavy fuel oil, crude oil or liquid biofuel). When the gas supply is uncertain, or prices are volatile, it is possible to switch from gas to liquid fuel, and vice versa, even during operation. The option to run on liquid fuel as a backup improves reliability remarkably."

Yes, it runs on crude oil. You choose what you want to run it on.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 10:30:46

Yoshua wrote:"Wärtsilä gas engines operate on a wide selection of gas types. They are also available as multi-fuel versions, capable of operating on both natural gas and liquid fuel (light fuel oil, heavy fuel oil, crude oil or liquid biofuel). When the gas supply is uncertain, or prices are volatile, it is possible to switch from gas to liquid fuel, and vice versa, even during operation. The option to run on liquid fuel as a backup improves reliability remarkably."

Yes, it runs on crude oil. You choose what you want to run it on.

Yes they can but nobody does unless it is the last option. The ability to do it does not make it an economical or wise option.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 10:47:11

Most seemed to use nat gas which cost less than crude oil. Some combined nat gas with light fuel oil and heavy fuel oil.

The point is still that it's possible to use crude oil straight, there is no need to refine the oil.

The WTI crude oil price will continue to rise?

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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 10:59:42

You have a very busy chart there with scant labeling or keys.
Will WTI go up or down? If I knew I'd be a much richer man.
Things I don't know enough about to make any predictions.
The north Korea summit.
Trade talks with China , the EU, Canada , and Mexico,.
The number of wells likely to come on line world wide this year and their average production.
Demand for oil in China and India at $70/ barrel+.?
Some world event I haven't even thought of that will probably over shadow all the rest.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 12:21:12

pstarr wrote:According to Outcaste-Loser, there is definitely a top for oil prices, but it will never ever be attained because the Magic of the Market will . . . abracadabra
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. . . pull an oil unicorn from our butt hat

Do you EVER say anything that is actually objectively true?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 12:25:54

onlooker wrote:If Outcast does not believe they"re is a top price for oil than he is not following his precious economic axioms haha :razz:

they"re? What are you, five?

I've never said there isn't a top. I've only implied that no one can reliably predict what the top IS, apriori, or when it will occur, with meaningful precision. (This certainly includes the ETPers).

If the ETP clowns could predict future prices accurately and had a close to average IQ, then they should be multi-billionaires. (Just like all the other clowns who sell market advice and yet somehow can't make meaningful money on their self-proclaimed prescience re the markets).

That's reality. If you disagree, what "axioms" are you talking about? Be specific.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Sun 03 Jun 2018, 12:33:52, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 12:30:46

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:If Outcast does not believe they"re is a top price for oil than he is not following his precious economic axioms haha :razz:

Ironic, huh?
The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function. F. Scott Fitzgerald, "The Crack-Up", Esquire Magazine (February 1936).

Is Outcast_Loser functional? Can he/she still sit up and take nutrition?

Do you ever contribute anything aside from ad-homs? Tell you what, if you can't do better than that, I'll recommend to the mods that you take a nice vacation.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Cog » Sun 03 Jun 2018, 12:36:54

After Dec 31,2018 onlooker's opinions will have to found elsewhere on the intertubes.
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