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The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil prices?

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 19 May 2018, 16:01:44

Wait till gasoline prices go up, food prices will quickly follow up. As happened in 2008 and the aftermath.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 19 May 2018, 16:13:49

With high inflation the food prices must be rising in Argentina. The falling value of the peso is also raising the cost of imports. The price of soybeans in U.S dollars has been flat since the collapse in 2014-2015, so Argentina's export revenues are the same. So basically: The income is not rising, but the cost of living is rising.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 19 May 2018, 16:17:33

Yoshua wrote: So basically: The income is not rising, but the cost of living is rising.

Same as in basically every country. The economic fundamentals have been bad now for decades, but the MSM hides it. But now, it is difficult to hide as people are feeling desperate in many places. And the worse has not hit yet. God help us all.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 19 May 2018, 16:50:42

With high inflation the food prices must be rising in Argentina. The falling value of the peso is also raising the cost of imports. The price of soybeans in U.S dollars has been flat since the collapse in 2014-2015, so Argentina's export revenues are the same. So basically: The income is not rising, but the cost of living is rising.


high inflation is nothing new for Argentina, they have survived for years with inflation above 25%. Everything goes up including wages so most people do not see a decrease in buying power. The only difference is they do not save anything as they know that tomorrow it will be worth less. I lived there for a period and the general comment from folks is ....it's Argentina and you can expect a run up in inflation once a decade after which it falls again only to rise later.

Same as in basically every country. The economic fundamentals have been bad now for decades, but the MSM hides it. But now, it is difficult to hide as people are feeling desperate in many places.


please provide some evidence for this. If the MSM hides it then how do you know about it? And just who is feeling desperate?
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 19 May 2018, 17:27:24

Because the Net has other sources of info besides mainstream media. And as for who is desperate. Well obviously you are not paying attention. Africa, Middle East, South and Central America are in pretty desperate straits. Not to mention large portions of Asia. The MSM, highlights GDP and the performance of rich countries. The GDP is a rather deceptive barometer as it could be measuring "bad" things like more prisons being built, more wars happening, more heathcare costs etc. And even more so, economics has increasingly been channeled through the finance sector. Meaning the big money movers are the stock markets and those who invest in them. Wall St. is NOT the same as Main St. Look at the Midwest, places like Detroit, Ohio, Chicago, the rust belt. They are in pathetic economic conditions which are easily seen by seeing the vacant houses, lots and rundown areas. One must be trying very hard to not see, if one is not seeing economic malaise spreading like some virulent plague.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 19 May 2018, 19:36:55

Africa, Middle East, South and Central America are in pretty desperate straits.


as compared to when? Have you actually ever been to any of these places? I have and can tell you that much of Africa was a basket case back in the eighties, in the Middle East you need to be more specific because the Saudis, Qataris, Emiraties, Omanis have all been doing pretty well. I can't think of any country in Central America other than Panama that was ever considered to be very successful economically.

Look at the Midwest, places like Detroit, Ohio, Chicago, the rust belt. They are in pathetic economic conditions which are easily seen by seeing the vacant houses, lots and rundown areas. One must be trying very hard to not see, if one is not seeing economic malaise spreading like some virulent plague.


apparently, you are not very aware of your own country because there have always been areas of very poor and areas of very rich and they move around through time. When I was young the Pacific NW was not populated by billionaire internet jockeys and housing was affordable to pretty much everyone.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 19 May 2018, 20:08:50

onlooker wrote:Because the Net has other sources of info besides mainstream media.


In other words, crackpot sites like Zerohedge, PrisonPlanet, etc...

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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 20 May 2018, 00:19:32

onlooker, don't confuse the trolls with facts. It just gets them angry, and then they sweat and make body-smells.

Don't remind them that much of the world did not even recover from the Greatest Recession (*aka the 'Last Depression') and there is not one nation that is not completely broke and in debt. But hey . . . they are used to that. We here in America invented it first.

What's the most popular show on TV now? ---- "House Flippy" On yeah. Things are coming up BRILLIANT lol
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 20 May 2018, 02:12:54

Things are different in Argentina this time. With rising fuel prices, the cost of producing food is rising, which leads to inflation in food prices in Argentina.

The food producers are seeing the cost of food production rising, while their export income is flat, since the food prices in dollars are flat. The food producers are more likely to go broke, than raising wages for their workers to offset internal inflation in food prices.

The government has decided to freeze fuel prices and has asked IMF for help. So things are very bad in Argentina right now.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby marmico » Sun 20 May 2018, 04:27:22

Things are different in Argentina this time.


Don't think so. Argentina is a serial defaulter on its external debt. 2018 will be the 3rd default episode since 2001. No big deal. It's not even $250 billion at risk which in a global context is a pimple on an elephant's ass.

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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 20 May 2018, 07:41:20

Argentina's current account balance is deep in the red. Looks as if Argentina is just falling apart. How do you not default on your external debt in this situation?

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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 20 May 2018, 08:56:00

shortonoil wrote:The Etp Model isn't wrong; the monetary system is collapsing: you damn fool.


pstarr wrote:Any idiot who doesn't connect thermodynamics with oil drilling, the essential relation between heat and other forms of energy (such as mechanical, electrical, or chemical energy) has their shared head firmly planted up their @sses and deep in the SAND lol


pstarr wrote:Why are you even posting here? Do you know the difference between API 25 and API 50? What does a wanabee bumbling bureaucrat like yourself know about physics? Do you have a technical reading comprehension problem? Or are you merely a 14 year old child? Join the discussion. Stop trolling.


pstarr wrote:onlooker, don't confuse the trolls with facts. It just gets them angry, and then they sweat and make body-smells.


So anytime questions are asked these posters respond by insulting them. Remind me again, who are the trolls?
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 20 May 2018, 12:20:41

kublikhan wrote:
shortonoil wrote:The Etp Model isn't wrong; the monetary system is collapsing: you damn fool.


pstarr wrote:Any idiot who doesn't connect thermodynamics with oil drilling, the essential relation between heat and other forms of energy (such as mechanical, electrical, or chemical energy) has their shared head firmly planted up their @sses and deep in the SAND lol


pstarr wrote:Why are you even posting here? Do you know the difference between API 25 and API 50? What does a wanabee bumbling bureaucrat like yourself know about physics? Do you have a technical reading comprehension problem? Or are you merely a 14 year old child? Join the discussion. Stop trolling.


pstarr wrote:onlooker, don't confuse the trolls with facts. It just gets them angry, and then they sweat and make body-smells.


So anytime questions are asked these posters respond by insulting them. Remind me again, who are the trolls?

I know two-way discussion is encouraged here (which I think is good). But at some point, isn't such childish behavior as kub is pointing out against the COC, especially if it's quite frequent?

I can only imagine how many potential active posters are turned off in the short or especially longer term and just leave, re such behavior. (Trolling may be in the eye of the beholder. But body smells? Really? THAT adds to the discussion in ANY WAY? I object.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 20 May 2018, 12:29:02

Yoshua wrote:Argentina's current account balance is deep in the red. Looks as if Argentina is just falling apart. How do you not default on your external debt in this situation?

Given Argentina's track record via debt, inflation, and bankruptcy, IMO, it's probably just a matter of time.

In these situations, lenders (who want the money owed them repaid) tend to let things get WAY out of hand before they give up and force things -- since forcing things often results in an immediate repudiation of much of the debt.

Just look at Puerto Rico, Greece, etc. as recent examples of countries in untenable financial situations and what goes on.

...

Here's the thing that kills me. WHY do lenders turn around and lend such entities money at moderate interest rates, again and again, even after they've been shown that's a REALLY bad idea?

They can't use the internet?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_ ... _Argentina

But let's remember, Argentina is NOT the world.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 20 May 2018, 15:52:21

Argentina is now negotiating the terms of a new loan with IMF. The prime minister of Argentina said that Argentina will set the terms of the loan and not IMF. The reason he gave was that Argentina has a strategic role in the global economy.

Europe can not let Greece turn into a failed state as a member of EU. Greece is also a Nato member and is located in a strategically important region in the Eastern Med.

Life is complicated.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 20 May 2018, 16:06:03

To return this topic to its original state; to wit, there exists a top to oil prices.

If not then exceedingly high prices (let's say for sake of argument . . . $300/barrel) then all sorts of oil would be produced including Orinoco super heavy, Green River shale oil and neptunian methane hydrates . . . not to mention those hydrates under our own deep seas.

Futhermore one must agree that given such a high-price oil regime anything and all molecules convertible to oil will be pursued. This includes the thermodepolymerization of turkey guts and human waste. The conversion of all woody materials into ethanol via enzymatic /cellulosic fermentation. Deep sea mining of algae for biodiesel. And even the transfer of you cotton undies into biofuels. Like sugar and other starches.

Without undies, turkey crap and food the society collapse and the oil prices does so in conjunction. So there. The doomers won the argument again.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 20 May 2018, 16:37:18

It is NOT a coincidence we went after the easy to get light sweet crude first. Economics 101. Good thing the Arctic is opening up, so they can give us a few more years of happy motoring and finish the job of eventually converting our planet to a hell hole like Venus
:P :twisted:
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 20 May 2018, 16:56:21

onlooker wrote:It is NOT a coincidence we went after the easy to get light sweet crude first. Economics 101. Good thing the Arctic is opening up, so they can give us a few more years of happy motoring and finish the job of eventually converting our planet to a hell hole like Venus
:P :twisted:

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Some would say the damn hippie enviros stopped that.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Cog » Sun 20 May 2018, 17:24:58

I don't see anything there that would stop a steel hulled vessel underway. Hmm plastic(oil-derived) kayaks. My Lord the hypocrisy among the dirty hippies.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 20 May 2018, 18:32:43

Yoshua wrote:Argentina is now negotiating the terms of a new loan with IMF. The prime minister of Argentina said that Argentina will set the terms of the loan and not IMF. The reason he gave was that Argentina has a strategic role in the global economy.

Europe can not let Greece turn into a failed state as a member of EU. Greece is also a Nato member and is located in a strategically important region in the Eastern Med.

Yeah, that ought to work out great. :roll: (See text I highlighted in red).

Do these regimes which financially hang themselves via decades of TERRIBLY irresponsible spending decisions ever learn?

Look how well that worked out for Puerto Rico, which was recently claiming they needed no oversight, when they had just defaulted on over $70 trillion in debt.

Look how well that attitude worked out for Greece, which like Puerto Rico, seems to think endlessly giving money away to buy votes while not making any real effort to collect taxes, is somehow the fault of the people they endlessly borrow from. Greece is turning itself into a failed state, like it or not.

Being "strategically" and persistently an irresponsible financial disaster isn't exactly the way to success. Whatever nonsense Argentina might bark, beggars can't be choosers.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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