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The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil prices?

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 May 2018, 01:54:19

Yoshua wrote:
After the energy half way point the WTI price starts to behave in chaotic way. You can look at many economic exponential curves and see the same chaotic behavior...the WTI price...global GDP in current dollars...the Dow Jones...and soon global debt?

You don't seem to understand what chaotic means.

Chaotic doesn't mean rising rapidly. It doesn't mean an exponential curve.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 18 May 2018, 08:37:34

onlooker wrote:...subject to overt and covert manipulation.


Back in 2008 doomers discounted the idea that part of the runup in oil was caused by speculation. Now in a last-ditch effort to save ETP a similar argument is being used, only with inverted logic.

You'd think in a site about the perils of oil depletion that oil prices going up would be interpreted as oil scarcity. Only due to the penetration of ETP's inverted logic have peakers advocated the reverse, that oil scarcity breeds low prices. This is why ETP and its remaining evangelists are a laughing-stock.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 10:05:33

onlooker wrote:
To prove it I would have to prove that the laws of physics determines the future of the economy

The problem is Yoshua, that economics being governed by the laws of Man, is subject to overt and covert manipulation. Thus, the economic chaos is reflective of that. But economic artifice cannot change or IMPROVE the basic biophysical underpinnings of energy resources or other resources

The irony is that both economic and eroei theory have been proved correct. There is not need to call on conspiracy.

The world works and that should be solace enough. :-D You just have to look for the truth, dig for it. Ignore the self-aggrandizement of the captive media. After all . . . it is the captive media's job to make sure you shop for crap. And not get all scared. Otherwise the advertisers run for the hills (where the smart one remain). :? Wouldn't want that :x Oh no ha ha ha ha

After conventional light sweet crude (>20 api and <50 api) peaked in 2005, the resulting price of that good stuff exploded, such that it was unaffordable . . . . to entire entire 'economies' of people/societies collapses;

-- major segments of our society, those strapped with new mortgages. Those in outlying new development with long-distance commuting;
--countries in the ME, like Egypt and those of the 'Arab Spring' where bread riots resulted from bad agriculture 'economics' subsidized, inefficient and highly dependent on expensive fuel.
--the so-called PIIG's (Portugal, Italy, Ireland etc) heavily dependent on auto fuel. Their ''economies'' collapsed back post-peak. They are all in the same hole today.
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Further proof of the collapsing EROEI (ETP) is the failed 'economics' of the tight shale industry.
Wall Street Journal, May 18: Oil Is Above $70, but Frackers Still Struggle to Make MoneyThose dumb-@ass oil boosters here never made money when Bakken crude sold for $60. They won't with Permian at $70
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 11:32:20

Any idiot who doesn't connect thermodynamics with oil drilling, the essential relation between heat and other forms of energy (such as mechanical, electrical, or chemical energy) has their shared head firmly planted up their @sses and deep in the SAND lol

WSJ, March 23, 2017; Latest Threat to U.S. Oil Drillers: The Rocketing Price of Sand

Shale companies’ profitability may also be threatened by rising costs for the immense amounts of sand and water needed for fracking. Modern fracking jobs now require 500 tons of steel pipe, enough water to fill 35 Olympic swimming pools and enough railcars filled with sand to stretch for 14 football fields, according to Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies.

The oil industry in total now spends more energy extracting energy from the earth, than is finally released/sold to the public. The world has drained its coffers on a fin d' seicle party. Very stupid very sad
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Cog » Fri 18 May 2018, 11:48:34

pstarr,

I'm not sure if you are trying to duplicate the miracles of Jesus, but ETP is dead. Buried by the facts of supply/demand. Perhaps you can try a different doom theory.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 11:55:58

Cog wrote:pstarr,

I'm not sure if you are trying to duplicate the miracles of Jesus, but ETP is dead. Buried by the facts of supply/demand. Perhaps you can try a different doom theory.

Why are you even posting here? Do you know the difference between API 25 and API 50? What does a wanabee bumbling bureaucrat like yourself know about physics? Do you have a technical reading comprehension problem? Or are you merely a 14 year old child? Join the discussion. Stop trolling.

I shut down Rockman re Etp. I don't need to shut you down. You do it when you utter your banalities.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 May 2018, 15:03:24

pstarr wrote:I shut down Rockman re Etp.

Considering ETP has been proven bogus, at least as Shorty proclaimed it, that's a very interesting belief system you have going there.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 18 May 2018, 15:06:09

pstarr wrote:
Cog wrote:pstarr,

I'm not sure if you are trying to duplicate the miracles of Jesus, but ETP is dead. Buried by the facts of supply/demand. Perhaps you can try a different doom theory.

Why are you even posting here? Do you know the difference between API 25 and API 50? What does a wanabee bumbling bureaucrat like yourself know about physics? Do you have a technical reading comprehension problem? Or are you merely a 14 year old child? Join the discussion. Stop trolling.

I shut down Rockman re Etp. I don't need to shut you down. You do it when you utter your banalities.

:lol: :lol:
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 15:21:32

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:I shut down Rockman re Etp.

Considering ETP has been proven bogus, at least as Shorty proclaimed it, that's a very interesting belief system you have going there.

You know I can play this game all day long.

The Rock guy bumbled, fumbled and turned tail and ran when I questioned him re the difference between the model's assumptions and its consequences. Do you know the difference?

Tired yet? I am seeing your tail in a little puff of litter.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 18 May 2018, 16:39:34

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_He0650klE&t=
THE U.S. SHALE OIL PONZI SCHEME EXPLAINED
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 16:50:30

onlooker wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_He0650klE&t=
THE U.S. SHALE OIL PONZI SCHEME EXPLAINED

SRSrocco is great. Presentation is a a must-view for every conscious adult. That's why it has only received 199 views. The other 319,999, 972 Americans have other more important projects. Like flipping houses and you know . . .

It has to be frustrating being a Cassandra though. Someday his gold/silver play will come home. And make a few true believers feudal lords. Until then just derision ha ha ha ha
Last edited by pstarr on Fri 18 May 2018, 16:56:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 May 2018, 16:55:29

pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:I shut down Rockman re Etp.

Considering ETP has been proven bogus, at least as Shorty proclaimed it, that's a very interesting belief system you have going there.

You know I can play this game all day long.

The Rock guy bumbled, fumbled and turned tail and ran when I questioned him re the difference between the model's assumptions and its consequences. Do you know the difference?

Tired yet? I am seeing your tail in a little puff of litter.

Do you think babbling nonsense makes you credible? Hint 1: It didn't work for shorty. Hint 2: Your delusions have little to do with reality re economics -- including the ETP.

Since the model has been shown to be badly flawed nonsense, why should I care what you think about it? Are you still wrongly trying to sell the meme that oil was unaffordable at $40ish? Funny how the global economy is moving right along as WTI sails through nearly twice that, and Brent through twice that. It's almost like supply, demand, and the pricing function are WORKING or something.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 May 2018, 17:00:00

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_He0650klE&t=
THE U.S. SHALE OIL PONZI SCHEME EXPLAINED

SRSrocco is great.

SRSrocco has a terrible track record and makes no more sense than ETP. You should screen your heroes for making predictions that are actually correct a meaningful proportion of the time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 17:00:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Since the model has been shown to be badly flawed nonsense, why should I care what you think about it?

Shown? By whom? I challenge you to explain that.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Are you still wrongly trying to sell the meme that oil was unaffordable at $40ish?

That is most certainly a lie. You are misquoting me. I have always said that tight shale requires at least $70/barrel to make a profit but our economy can not afford $70/barrel oil. We will see . . . once again.

If you have other information you had better own up. Right now. :x
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 18 May 2018, 17:04:03

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_He0650klE&t=
THE U.S. SHALE OIL PONZI SCHEME EXPLAINED

SRSrocco is great. Presentation is a a must-view for every conscious adult. That's why it has only received 199 views. The other 319,999, 972 Americans have other more important projects. Like flipping houses and you know . . .

It has to be frustrating being a Cassandra though. Someday his gold/silver play will come home. And make a few true believers feudal lords. Until then just derision ha ha ha ha

Well said my enlightened amigo. Tough being a Cassandra as ignorance seems to be the default human condition :cry:
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 17:05:43

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_He0650klE&t=
THE U.S. SHALE OIL PONZI SCHEME EXPLAINED

SRSrocco is great.

SRSrocco has a terrible track record and makes no more sense than ETP. You should screen your heroes for making predictions that are actually correct a meaningful proportion of the time.

Why don't you watch the video before making such proclamations.
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Shale has never made money. It steals it from the clueless investor class because the corrupt US government and the corrupt EIA and the corrupt FTC allow it. Shameful.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 18 May 2018, 18:07:43

That is most certainly a lie. You are misquoting me. I have always said that tight shale requires at least $70/barrel to make a profit but our economy can not afford $70/barrel oil. We will see . . . once again.


Which itself is completely and demonstrably stupid. The vast majority of shales in the US have break-even prices well below $70, why do you think all the drilling activity was still going on in the various basins over the past 3 years? Companies have been making cash profits at prices as low as $40/bbl. This has been discussed by a number of financial analysts, banks etc.

Shale has never made money. It steals it from the clueless investor class because the corrupt US government and the corrupt EIA and the corrupt FTC allow it. Shameful.


Complete horseshit. As I have said numerous times on this site most of you ETP fanatics haven’t a clue how to read let alone understand a 10 K or other financial statements from an oil and gas company. The ability of a company to maintain itself as a going concern is measured by cash items in the accounting not non-cash items. Free cash flow includes a number of non-cash items that are unimportant to that companies year to year profitability. As I have demonstrated on numerous occasion most of the shale companies have seen positive results when cash only items are considered (revenues – royalties – exploration costs-operating costs – G&A).

What is truly shameful is that at least Shorty had enough cojones to simply walk away from the site after it was clear his predictive methods were a failed an poorly imagined thought experiment whereas his acolytes just won't give up....wouldn't matter if oil was at $80 for the next 5 years you would still be babbling on about thermodynamics and the inability of people to afford oil. :roll: I note that the lunatic fringe that continues to point to the world ceasing to exist on a particular day at least go away and shut up for a few months or years after they are proven incorrect....there should be a lesson there.
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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 18:22:02

rockdoc123 wrote:
That is most certainly a lie. You are misquoting me. I have always said that tight shale requires at least $70/barrel to make a profit but our economy can not afford $70/barrel oil. We will see . . . once again.


Which itself is completely and demonstrably stupid. The vast majority of shales in the US have break-even prices well below $70, why do you think all the drilling activity was still going on in the various basins over the past 3 years? Companies have been making cash profits at prices as low as $40/bbl. This has been discussed by a number of financial analysts, banks etc.

You should know by now that we don't buy into your wannabee oil-industry nonsense. I'll read Bloomberg and every other serious analyst before I'd sit through another of your Oil-Industry 101 Level BS classes.

See the chart above from Bloomberg. I could post similar ones all day long, but why bother . . . you have your agenda. At least AdamB admitted being an oil-industry intern.

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Re: The ETP model was wrong - But is there a top for oil pri

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 May 2018, 18:25:26

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Why The Shale Oil 'Miracle' Is Becoming A Debacle

Rockdoc, do you want the pain to go away? I can stop posting for a few minutes ha ha ha
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