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The Etp Model, Q & A

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby Cog » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 08:53:57

I'm sure taxing someone will be part of your prescription Don. It always is.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 09:00:44

donstewart wrote:Albert Bates; Long Emergency

What we are about to undertake is to write a prescription. Essentially, over the next 10 or 12 weeks, we are going to write a book comprised of a string of these blog posts, chapter by chapter. We intend to lay out the whole philosophy of the change required, and then describe, in mechanical detail, not only what must be done, but how it can be accomplished without bloodshed but with plenty of gaity, song and dance. We are calling this our Power Zone Manifesto.

http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2017/01/ ... festo.html

Don Stewart

I for one would love to receive a copy. I sure hope it is read by some movers and shakers. Good luck.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 09:41:29

@cog and onlooker
Don Stewart is not setting out to give us all the answers over the next 10 or 12 weeks. Albert Bates is taking on that project. You can follow it on his website.

As for taxing someone. I tend toward the Anarchist persuasion.

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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 11:23:37

"We are calling this our Power Zone Manifesto."

Sounds very interesting. Keep us posted.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby tagio » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 13:11:07

Don,

Thanks for the head's up on Albert Bates latest project. I look forward to checking it out. I am hoping it has a bit more "how to" aspects than his usual offerings. I find that his articles tend to be an anecdote combined with one big idea and, based on the way my brain works and I learn, I just don't find that sort of thing - at least the way he does it - very helpful.

It is interesting that people in this "movement" seem to be turning to the practicalities of building the future community/society. Did you hear one of Hemenway's last presentations on using permaculture ideals to build out a new horticultural model of society, killing off the meme of "the state" and operating on a more anarchic basis? {"Liberation Permaculture", podcast here: http://www.permaculturevoices.com/liber ... ay-pvp126/ } I'd be interested to hear what you think of it, it seems seminal to me. Hemenway talks about how James C. Scott's "Seeing Like a State" (an amazing work) enabled him to connect a lot of dots in his life's work and shine a light forward. It's sad Hemenway just passed away, fairly young, but I found his presentation fairly significant in terms of helping to point a way forward.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 13:29:03

@tagio

Toby had a strong Anarchist streak at least since the first time I met him. I believe that most people who accept that fundamental change is required come to accept the notion that change is going to happen from the bottom up. Small groups of people will simply begin to behave differently. States and Multinationals will lose control. Interestingly, Kurt Cobb's post today explores the loss of control.

If you accept that a return to something like a Horticultural society, mostly reliant on photosynthesis, is in our future, then dismantling the current top-heavy centralized organizations is essential. We simply can't afford all those administrators.

The fly in the ointment is paying off all the debts. It's one thing to tell old people that their social security will never be paid. It's something else to tell Davos Man that his assets are worth nothing.

Albert's notes say that he has some scheme involving fossil fuels to be used in non-harmful ways. I have no idea what that might be, other than his perpetual fascination with bio-char. Have you seen this article:

https://www.biochar-journal.org/en/ct/2 ... of-biochar

Albert may make the case that we can produce quite a bit of useful stuff by making bio-char using fossil fuels...but which ultimately sequesters the carbon in the soil, adding to soil fertility.

Albert is a smart guy...but he sometimes mystifies me with the connections he makes. I've heard him talk a few times. I have concluded that I would rather read what he has to say, since it gives me more time to figure out what it was he told me.

In any event, few people are currently trying to approach peak oil and peak climate and peak minerals and peak debt and peak people and peak government from anything like a coherent perspective. It may be interesting to see Albert try to do so.

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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 14:17:51

Ugo Bardi; Albert Bates; Toby Hemenway
See Joe's comment about subsistence in the Marshall Islands:
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... mment-form

The default assumption is that, if the rest of the world goes away, a lot of Marshall Islanders will simply starve. Most people are too scared to make the equivalent assumption that if fossil fuels go away, most people in the 'rest of the world' will, likewise, starve. (Incidentally, look up the diabetes rate for the Marshall Islanders.)

Albert, based on his experiences with agriculture, thinks that providing enough food can be done...just maybe not in isolated sandy islands in the middle of the ocean. Toby Hemenway thought that the population of Earth in a Horticultural society would settle somewhere between 500M and 2Billion. Something to be aware of, if you are reading Albert's forthcoming essays, is what sorts of residue from the current industrial system he is assuming continue to function. Does he think there will be PV electricity, for example? Without electricity, then the ability to store perishable food is severely hampered. Some people may have spring houses, but certainly not 8 billion.

A similar issue arises with bad weather. Australian Aborigines who found drought or grasshoppers or floods in one place just walked to some different place. But they were spread thinly on the land, and did not really have permanent settlements with Passivhaus standards of construction. The temperature here in North Carolina tonight will be zero degrees F. This will be the third year in a row when freezes have severely hampered my fig tree. While the scientists may debate the issue, it seems clear to me that the weather patterns have become much less reliable and consequently food production much less dependable. (This is exactly what the State Climatologist told us would happen at a Climate Change and Farming conference 4 years ago.)

One of the principal problems we have with food production is the compaction of the soil...due to decades and centuries of hard usage. To break up compaction, it is very helpful to have a powerful tractor with a sub-soiler plow. Albert Bates did this with one of the fields at The Farm, putting some bio-char underground as he broke up the plow pan. Will Albert's master plan use some of our remaining fossil fuels to ameliorate compaction? If not, then we need to realize that a lot of those fields in the Midwest will produce very little in a climate challenged and fossil fuel-less world.

Consequently, it is hard to make reliable predictions of exactly what the population might be in a post-petroleum world. These are just a few examples of the kinds of uncertainties we face.

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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 14:38:02

The Fed might have had the power to keep the oil price high for some years despite deflationary pressure due falling net energy... but the Fed simply can't keep the entire commodity index from falling due deflationary pressure due falling net energy from the entire energy mix production.

http://www.hangthebankers.com/wp-conten ... -chart.jpg

The collapse of the commodity index seems to have started in 2011 the year the Euro crisis and the Arab Spring started.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 15:19:17

I think any discussion of the future has to focus of food production done in a ecologically sound manner. So that, Permaculture and holistic management are two different methods that focus on increasing biomass and returning nutrient richness and diversity to the soil. I refer you to the book by Wm. H. Kötke, author of The Final Empire: The Collapse of Civilization. The soil is in terrible condition around the world. This author who has been an activist since the 1960's seems to have considerable expertise in Agroecology. As has been said soil is life. We must return top soil to its natural ideal state exemplified by the climax ecosystem. Mr. Kotke has no illusions that 7 plus billion people will make it through the bottleneck. However, he like others hopes that some will and those who do will have the correct ecologically centered culture to allow for humans to recover. Knowledge of Soil and Agriculture in general must be at the forefront of the assets that survivors will have to navigate the difficult times ahead.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 15:55:29

Ugo Bardi article; Marshall Islands
See this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1a_e5cK9MQ
Between 7 minutes and about 9:30 you see the evolution from WWII times until today. In the first picture, you see what to Western eyes looks like the Garden of Eden...live off the land, clothing pretty sparse, good health, apparently happy. By 7:30 you see a junk yard, children eating popsicles and soda pop for breakfast and extraordinarily high rates of diabetes.

The author of the 'back to Eden' article thinks that the Islanders made a very bad deal, and New Zealand should never have subsidized the energy which made the change possible...whether the energy was diesel or PV panels. Some of the people attacking the article think that 'modern is better' or that 'let the Islanders choose'.

The lessons I draw are twofold:
*Population will crash without the energy that has been added
*If one survives the crash, life could be pretty good

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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby tagio » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 16:07:30

Thanks for those observations & remarks, Don. Reliability of food production is going to be a huge deal, going forward.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 09:21:46

"Reliability of food production is going to be a huge deal, going forward."

It is requiring and ever greater portion of the world's economy to produce the oil, and its products needed for it to function. That is leaving an ever smaller portion of the economy to produce every thing else; including the food that we eat. By the time the dead state is reached (2030) it will require 51% of the world's economy to produce the oil that will be needed. The choice between oil, or food is fast becoming a Faustian arrangement.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby runningman » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 10:50:09

Below, today, from John Mauldin’s “Thoughts from the Frontline” mostly weekly newsletter. A very “peak oil is dead” view of the world from a writer who makes a living off of offering investment advice – so even when he is pessimistic about some things he has to be invested in the BUA and offer hopium about the future, mostly based on technological advances to save the day.

Still, I thought I would post it here as contrarian view on near term oil production to the ETP model, and what is put out in an influential newsletter. Having spent so many years in the working in technology development and manufacturing world, I still catch myself occasionally buying the technology will save us argument (that is never really backed up with any data or science on the energy or resource or environmental costs). It is a little (emotionally) harder to accept that the BUA is going to rapidly fizzle out very soon.

( fyi, yes, I did read the Art Berman takedown of Mauldin’s optimistic statements in 2015 on cost improvements in oil production.)

Mauldin:
“I also think that this year we’ll start to see a new pattern: Production could keep rising even as prices fall. Conventional wisdom says that producers stop pumping at some point when it becomes unprofitable, but I think that is about to change.

If you are an oil producer – or really, any commodity producer – two things can improve your profit margin: higher selling prices for the resource you produce, or lower production costs. Some combination of both works as well.

Now, selling prices are mostly outside the producer’s control, though adept hedging can help. Cost reduction is therefore the place to concentrate your attention. Back in 2015 I wrote about new drilling techniques and other technology that promised to bring oil and gas production costs significantly lower. Now, in the last few weeks, people in the business have told me these technologies are moving rapidly toward deployment. They foresee considerably lower drilling and production costs by the end of this year.

I had a confidential briefing recently about some new energy production processes that are coming online in the oil patch. Let me just say that production from an oil well drilled with these new techniques is getting ready to increase substantially. In some cases the amount of oil produced per dollar spent on drilling is going to more than double. There are significant chunks of the petroleum-producing parts of the United States where $40 oil will not be a barrier to drilling and new production. Eventually – in a few years – these techniques will begin to show up in wells around the world, and there will be an explosion of oil.

Even as many oilfields dry up, there will be new fields developed from previously unprofitable sources. As I’ve been saying for 15 years, the whole Peak Oil thing is nonsense. I used to think that it simply meant the price of oil would go up to justify the cost of drilling, but I didn’t really understand how much technology would lower the cost of drilling.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 12:55:32

Well, well after flirting with 54 per barrel, WTI crude is down to 52.41. Just saying.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby tagio » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 13:46:32

short,

If I may beg your indulgence, sometime recently you posted a list of the things that the ETP model successfully predicts and "explains," including not only prices per barrel for I believe 59 years but the 2014 price drop, etc. I neglected to bookmark your list for a handy reference point. If you can spare the time, could you give me the link to that post, or cut and paste it into a new one? It is very useful as an educational tool to motivate people to put some effort into understanding the model.

Many thanks for all you do. I very much hope that the Royal Academy agrees to publish your and Dr. Arnoux's paper, because the "argument from authority", in this case, the Royal Academy's, seems to be the most persuasive with people and the most powerful force for spreading the societal acceptance of an idea.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 14:41:45

"Well, well after flirting with 54 per barrel, WTI crude is down to 52.41. Just saying."

This certainly gives us a pretty good time line between when the price approaches the Maximum Affordability curve, and how long it takes to work through to the economics (which is the only thing that the Energy Function challenged market sees) that drives the price back down. During this entire run up the inventory situation continued to deteriorate until all it took was a statement by the Kuwaiti Oil Minister and a 100,000 barrel increase from Nigeria to drive it back down. Since what triggered the decline was essentially "non news", it appears to take about 6 weeks, for this cycle of ups and downs to complete.

"If you are an oil producer – or really, any commodity producer – two things can improve your profit margin: higher selling prices for the resource you produce, or lower production costs. Some combination of both works as well."

As apparently, a non Energy Function devotee, you may be unaware that the largest user of the energy that comes from petroleum is now the petroleum industry itself. As the price of petroleum increases so also does their cost of production. There is therefore a point in the cycle where a price increase become detrimental to the industry. That breakeven point is specified by the Maximum Affordability Function. There are many other aspects about petroleum production that become evident once it is understood that petroleum production constitutes, almost completely, of the process of supplying energy to the economy. It is therefore necessary to take into the consideration the quantity of energy it takes to produce the petroleum and its products. As the energy in a unit of petroleum is fixed the greater the energy to produce it becomes the less is available for the remainder of the economy. There was for a long time a very close correlation between the quantity of petroleum produced, and the energy it delivered. Because of the inevitable depletion process (that occurs to all extractive natural resources) that spread between those two functions has widened to the point where quantity is no longer the significant variable. If the petroleum industry is unaware of this, over the next few years they will in for a very rude awakening!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 15:04:15

As apparently, a non Energy Function devotee, you may be unaware that the largest user of the energy that comes from petroleum is now the petroleum industry itself. As the price of petroleum increases so also does their cost of production.

There is therefore a point in the cycle where a price increase become detrimental to the industry.

At that point more than half the produced oil must be "bought" by the industry for its operations. The remaining energy that was available for sale . . . is now essentially lost of the market. The Market is impoverished by the lack of oil, and demands less. Sounds like deflation

ETP is not intuitive. Short, have I paraphrased you correctly? did I get that right?
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby godq3 » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 15:12:23

I'm waiting for Zero Hedge headline "Crude drops another $1 on laws of physics" :)

Damn, why this oil won't go above maximum price, and we could just forget about the ETP?
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 15:21:16

Just went below 52, looking like it could be a sharp decline for the end of the trading day. Can you say hit a wall
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 09 Jan 2017, 15:25:34

Certainly seems like ETP is being been vindicated.
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