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THE Ethanol Thread pt 3

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby Pops » Sat 16 Nov 2013, 17:11:16

So the politbureau has spoken and the RFS has been lowered, causing ADM to squeal and the oil cos to smile.

The agency did not propose a specific 2014 volume for ethanol made from corn.

But the proposed change in advanced biofuels implies a corn ethanol mandate of 12.7 billion to 13.2 billion gallons, down from the previous 2014 mandate of 14.4 billion gallons.

"We are astounded by the proposal released by the Administration today. It reflects an 'all of the above, except biofuels' energy strategy," said Fuels America, a coalition of alternative energy producers.


LOL, wonder who buys Fuels America's doughnuts?


H/T PO.com
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/ ... 2F20131115
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 16 Nov 2013, 17:27:14

There is actually a practical side to the blend wall. Small engines, such as push lawn mowers, weed-eaters, etc. with carburetors get messed up by too much ethanol. (My small engine mechanic says it's predominantly seals breaking down -- no, I don't know why they can't make seals that tolerate ethanol better -- they obviously do in modern cars. Perhaps a cost issue...)

But anyway, I save bucks on maintenance by using premium gasoline, as it has little or no ethanol to meet the higher RON octane rating standard required for premium gas. The few bucks a year for gasoline is piddly compared to rebuilding small engines at a depressing frequency.

Now -- if the folks in charge would just ADMIT there is actually an issue for certain applications, and always ensure that there is choice for the user -- then the traditional issues like cost, corn, politics, pollution, efficiency, etc. should be applied to the (likely) 99% of gasoline that goes for basic transportation.
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 16 Nov 2013, 17:40:21

Tanada wrote:Oh well guess it is too much to expect the Federal Government to go against the wishes of GM.

Tanada, for one thing Brazil is somewhat unique. They had the climate and the room to plant a LOT of sugar cane to produce the lion's share of their transportation fuels. Less free arable room in the U.S. and Europe -- and a substitute like corn is needed in the cooler climate.

Color me stupid, but I don't see why this would be that big an issue for, (say), GM. If there were a mandate for all auto-manufacturers to meet the same flex-fuel standard, so they all have to add the roughly $300 cost together -- there is no anti-competitive issue.

I see why the obvious GOP supported interests like big oil and corn farmers and ADM, etc. have vested interests. Not to mention the Democrat supported interests like corn farmers and ADM, etc. and of course various green interests.

I have been under the impression from general marketing over the past decade or so that GM has been a proponent, in general, of flex-fuel vehicles. Or is this all just marketing noise to confuse a busy public (like me)?

Thanks in advance for any insight as I can't research every issue in a meaningful way.
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 16 Nov 2013, 17:51:19

This was a topic on PBS Newshour yesterday. Although GW Bush originated the Ethanol push, under Obama's watch, five million acres of conservation lands have been lost to Ethanol cultivation - more area than than Yellowstone, Everglades and Yosemite National Parks combined. There are clear downsides to ethanol fuels:

CORYDON, Iowa (AP) — The hills of southern Iowa bear the scars of America's push for green energy: The brown gashes where rain has washed away the soil. The polluted streams that dump fertilizer into the water supply.

Even the cemetery that disappeared like an apparition into a cornfield.

It wasn't supposed to be this way.

With the Iowa political caucuses on the horizon in 2007, presidential candidate Barack Obama made homegrown corn a centerpiece of his plan to slow global warming. And when President George W. Bush signed a law that year requiring oil companies to add billions of gallons of ethanol to their gasoline each year, Bush predicted it would make the country "stronger, cleaner and more secure."

But the ethanol era has proven far more damaging to the environment than politicians promised and much worse than the government admits today.

As farmers rushed to find new places to plant corn, they wiped out millions of acres of conservation land, destroyed habitat and polluted water supplies, an Associated Press investigation found.

Five million acres of land set aside for conservation — more than Yellowstone, Everglades and Yosemite National Parks combined — have vanished on Obama's watch.

Landowners filled in wetlands. They plowed into pristine prairies, releasing carbon dioxide that had been locked in the soil.

Sprayers pumped out billions of pounds of fertilizer, some of which seeped into drinking water, contaminated rivers and worsened the huge dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico where marine life can't survive.

The consequences are so severe that environmentalists and many scientists have now rejected corn-based ethanol as bad environmental policy. But the Obama administration stands by it, highlighting its benefits to the farming industry rather than any negative impact.

Farmers planted 15 million more acres of corn last year than before the ethanol boom, and the effects are visible in places like south central Iowa.

The hilly, once-grassy landscape is made up of fragile soil that, unlike the earth in the rest of the state, is poorly suited for corn. Nevertheless, it has yielded to America's demand for it.

"They're raping the land," said Bill Alley, a member of the board of supervisors in Wayne County, which now bears little resemblance to the rolling cow pastures shown in postcards sold at a Corydon pharmacy.

All energy comes at a cost. The environmental consequences of drilling for oil and natural gas are well documented and severe. But in the president's push to reduce greenhouse gases and curtail global warming, his administration has allowed so-called green energy to do not-so-green things.

In some cases, such as its decision to allow wind farms to kill eagles, the administration accepts environmental costs because they pale in comparison to the havoc it believes global warming could ultimately cause.

Ethanol is different.

The government's predictions of the benefits have proven so inaccurate that independent scientists question whether it will ever achieve its central environmental goal: reducing greenhouse gases. That makes the hidden costs even more significant.

"This is an ecological disaster," said Craig Cox with the Environmental Working Group, a natural ally of the president that, like others, now finds itself at odds with the White House.

But it's a cost the administration is willing to accept. It believes supporting corn ethanol is the best way to encourage the development of biofuels that will someday be cleaner and greener than today's. Pulling the plug on corn ethanol, officials fear, might mean killing any hope of these next-generation fuels.

"That is what you give up if you don't recognize that renewable fuels have some place here," EPA administrator Gina McCarthy said in a recent interview with AP. "All renewable fuels are not corn ethanol."

Still, corn supplies the overwhelming majority of ethanol in the United States, and the administration is loath to discuss the environmental consequences.


There is more, it's too long to quote. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/secret-dirty-cost-obamas-green-power-push-1

The Bottom Line for me:

1) It is debatable whether we gain any net fuel value, as we consume oil to cultivate corn for corn sweetener. Were we talking about sugar cane in a tropical climate, there would be no doubt - but corn in a temperate climate is not a clear win.

2) We are destroying topsoil and using petrochemicals to grow non-food crops - somewhere else in the world, somebody can't afford to buy our grains because of the price increase: they starve so that we can haul our fat carcasses around in two ton cars.

3) Five million irreplaceable acres of virgin conservation land are gone!

4) Fertilizer and pesticide and herbicde runoffs are polluting groundwater.

5) I am in favor of people consuming ethanol directly, not in cars.
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 18 Nov 2013, 11:15:47

Nov 15 (Reuters) - "The Obama administration proposed on Friday to slash federal requirements for U.S. biofuel use in 2014. The Environmental Protection Agency proposed to cut overall use of renewable fuels, made mostly from U.S. corn, to a range of 15 billion to 15.52 billion gallons. With that range the agency proposed a goal of 15.21 billion gallons, which is more than 16 percent less than the previous 18.15 billion gallons contained in the law that governs the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and below the 2013 level of 16.55 billion gallons.

The plan follows the agency's warnings that the country was approaching a point when the RFS would require the use of more ethanol than can be blended into gasoline at the 10 percent level that dominates the U.S. fueling infrastructure. Refiners have said this impending "blend wall," if left in place, would force them to export more fuel or produce less gasoline, leading to shortages and higher prices at the pump."

Not feeding hungry folks around the globe is one thing. But higher prices at the pump!!!
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 18 Nov 2013, 14:39:23

ROCKMAN wrote:Nov 15 (Reuters) - "The Obama administration proposed on Friday to slash federal requirements for U.S. biofuel use in 2014. The Environmental Protection Agency proposed to cut overall use of renewable fuels, made mostly from U.S. corn, to a range of 15 billion to 15.52 billion gallons. With that range the agency proposed a goal of 15.21 billion gallons, which is more than 16 percent less than the previous 18.15 billion gallons contained in the law that governs the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and below the 2013 level of 16.55 billion gallons.

The plan follows the agency's warnings that the country was approaching a point when the RFS would require the use of more ethanol than can be blended into gasoline at the 10 percent level that dominates the U.S. fueling infrastructure. Refiners have said this impending "blend wall," if left in place, would force them to export more fuel or produce less gasoline, leading to shortages and higher prices at the pump."

Not feeding hungry folks around the globe is one thing. But higher prices at the pump!!!


If the new level is lower than the 2013 level then I call b.s. on this being about pump prices. Something else is behind this push, anyone know what that is?
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 18 Nov 2013, 15:37:48

Yes of course:

1) The USA continues to have lower demands for fuel because the economy remains weak. Lowered demand is lowering gasoline prices more than the typical Winter driving reduction.

2) See my post above, corn-sourced ethanol does not actually save significant amounts of oil or reduce GHG generation significantly. It has significant environmental downsides to boot.

3) Without significant numbers of E85 compatible vehicles, the "blend wall" of no more than 10% ethanol content in conventional fuel must not be exceeded.
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 18 Nov 2013, 17:10:43

Competent central planners would have mandated all Gasoline engines sold after 2005 be E-85/M-85 compatible back in 2001. As is the delays and obfuscations are just plain stupid. None of the major auto/pick-up manufacturers is going to do a whole fleet compatibility unless it is mandated that they all have to do it. Given the very minor cost increase to a $25,000.00 purchase price not doing the compatibility seals is pathetic. I am no fan of Corn ethanol, you can get about 5 times as much ethanol yield from an acre of potatoes compared to corn and the only reason we use corn is the goofy Iowa subsidy racket distorts the market. If they subsidized Potato ethanol the way they do corn a heck of a lot of Iowa would be planted to Potatoes as the farms converted over. The transition would not be instant because planting and harvesting need different equipment, but inside of a few years the market would move right along.

Somehow the subsidies for Ethanol all got focused on Corn, and the subsidies for Biodiesel all got focused on Soybeans. Neither is the best crop for the fuel desired, Potato is a good compromise for Ethanol and Sunflower is much better for Biodiesel, but our fearful leaders in their lobbied 'wisdom' put the subsidies elsewhere. It isn't about making the best ag land use for fuel production, it is about the Corn and Soy lobby efforts.
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 19 Nov 2013, 00:02:29

KaiserJeep wrote:The USA continues to have lower demands for fuel because the economy remains weak.
And because of higher prices due to higher production costs worldwide. Some think the weak economy is caused by higher fuel prices.
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 19 Nov 2013, 00:21:54

Tanada wrote:Competent central planners
...
Somehow the subsidies for Ethanol all got focused on Corn, and the subsidies for Biodiesel all got focused on Soybeans. Neither is the best crop for the fuel desired, Potato is a good compromise for Ethanol and Sunflower is much better for Biodiesel, but our fearful leaders in their lobbied 'wisdom' put the subsidies elsewhere. It isn't about making the best ag land use for fuel production, it is about the Corn and Soy lobby efforts.
The Soviet Union had competent central planners but they were overruled by politicians beholden to local interest groups who wanted to keep their uneconomic industries going.
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Re: Ethanol And Central Planning

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 19 Nov 2013, 08:51:26

Keith_McClary wrote:
Tanada wrote:Competent central planners
...
Somehow the subsidies for Ethanol all got focused on Corn, and the subsidies for Biodiesel all got focused on Soybeans. Neither is the best crop for the fuel desired, Potato is a good compromise for Ethanol and Sunflower is much better for Biodiesel, but our fearful leaders in their lobbied 'wisdom' put the subsidies elsewhere. It isn't about making the best ag land use for fuel production, it is about the Corn and Soy lobby efforts.
The Soviet Union had competent central planners but they were overruled by politicians beholden to local interest groups who wanted to keep their uneconomic industries going.


Good point, even an excellent planner or engineer isn't enough if the Politicians stick their hands in to 'adjust' the decision making process.
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Re: THE Ethanol Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby litesong » Sun 13 Jul 2014, 15:01:56

An old thread showing an increase in gas stations providing 100% (ethanol-free) gasoline, indicating the slow withdrawal from "ethanol in gasoline":

...... pure-gas.org , which promotes & lists sources dispensing 100%(ethanol-free) gasoline has escalated from less than 2000 listings many years ago, to 4800 listings, less than two years ago, to 7700 in early February, 2014. About the end of May, they rose to 8000. Now, almost mid-July, listings jumped over 2% to 8200+!!! Even fuel restrictive California has a few more stations selling 100% gasoline. Wisconsin, with 709 listings, comprise 8.7% of all U.S. & Canadian listings. Florida, with repeal of some 100% gasoline restrictions, has increased ~ 10% over the last few months.

Possibly, in a year and a half, listings should be over 10,000!!!! Hopefully, the end of " ethanol in gasoline" will accelerate, considering that ethanol needs high compression ratio(16:1) ethanol engines to efficiently extract its power. Ethanol in low compression ratio (9:1 to 12:1) gasoline engines flops.
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Re: THE Ethanol Thread pt 3

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 13 Jul 2014, 15:24:22

litesong wrote:An old thread showing an increase in gas stations providing 100% (ethanol-free) gasoline, indicating the slow withdrawal from "ethanol in gasoline":

...... pure-gas.org , which promotes & lists sources dispensing 100%(ethanol-free) gasoline has escalated from less than 2000 listings many years ago, to 4800 listings, less than two years ago, to 7700 in early February, 2014. About the end of May, they rose to 8000. Now, almost mid-July, listings jumped over 2% to 8200+!!! Even fuel restrictive California has a few more stations selling 100% gasoline. Wisconsin, with 709 listings, comprise 8.7% of all U.S. & Canadian listings. Florida, with repeal of some 100% gasoline restrictions, has increased ~ 10% over the last few months.

Possibly, in a year and a half, listings should be over 10,000!!!! Hopefully, the end of " ethanol in gasoline" will accelerate, considering that ethanol needs high compression ratio(16:1) ethanol engines to efficiently extract its power. Ethanol in low compression ratio (9:1 to 12:1) gasoline engines flops.


I checked out the map at your link, http://pure-gas.org/extensions/map.html

All of the stations anywhere remotely near enough for me to stop at are in marina's where the boaters go to get ethanol free gasoline. Not exactly the most convenient spots, I would have to go a minimum of 5 miles out of my way to get ethanol free, and I am doubtful the increased fuel milage would make up for the extra distance.
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U.S. ethanol makers at record rate...

Unread postby GHung » Wed 03 Dec 2014, 10:29:09

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/12/0 ... ZM20141202

Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. ethanol production is likely to continue at a record rate despite its rare premium to gasoline as cheap corn, high biofuel prices and even cool weather provide ideal conditions and strong profit margins.

"There's no sign that says we should slow production. The mentality is that everyone is running," said Todd Becker, chief executive of Green Plains Inc, the fourth-largest U.S. ethanol producer behind Archer Daniels Midland Co, POET LLC and Valero Energy Corp.

"The industry runs much better in the cold than the heat because we don't have to cool the plants down. This is the plants' sweet spot," Becker said.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration last week said ethanol production averaged 982,000 barrels per day in the week ending Nov. 21, the largest volume in the dataset that started in 2010. The agency will release new weekly figures on Wednesday.

Production surged 6 percent from the same period last year as multimonth highs in ethanol futures resulted in the best profits for biofuel makers since summer.

Export demand for ethanol is booming, up more than 40 percent so far this year, helping to make ethanol more expensive than gasoline in some domestic markets. Meanwhile, costs to make ethanol have declined in the wake of a record-large U.S. harvest of corn, of which about a third is used for ethanol.

"We're running at capacity and our plants are filled to capacity with corn," said Jim Seurer, chief executive of Glacial Lakes Energy LLC, which has two South Dakota ethanol plants that each can produce as much as 100 million gallons annually......


BTW: I paid $2.56 per gallon (regular 10%) yesterday at a Marathon down in Georgia (USA). Diesel was $3.45.
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Re: U.S. ethanol makers at record rate...

Unread postby shallow sand » Wed 03 Dec 2014, 11:32:18

This is a sign that gasoline demand in US is spiking. Each gallon contains 10% of ethanol. US refiners are running full bore, scrambling to find enough ethanol. This is coming as we are setting up for a drop in oil and corn production due to low prices, decreased drilling? Setting up another super spike that will derail the economy? Will be interesting.
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Re: U.S. ethanol makers at record rate...

Unread postby wildbourgman » Wed 03 Dec 2014, 12:28:48

Decreased drilling may not cause a quick reaction until the backlog of wells to be fracked and brought online catches up or shuts down. I'm thinking shale well completions get pushed back making the fracking backlog less of a factor.

Although, I do think T-Boone Pickens is correct oil prices make it back to $100 within 18 months.
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Re: U.S. ethanol makers at record rate...

Unread postby GHung » Wed 03 Dec 2014, 14:30:13

EIA: Ethanol production dropped 20k barrels last week (to 962,000).
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Re: THE Ethanol Thread pt 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 12 May 2015, 08:29:23

Facebook recomended the following news item for me and upon reflection I guess they were right, I did read it. Kind of makes me wonder about the metadata they gathered from me that caused the recommendation but hey it is the 21st century.

protecfuel1Georgia gets its first three E15 stations this week. To help celebrate the event at the Atlanta area stations, Protec Fuel will be running special “Happy Hour” pricing from 4-5 pm on Friday, May 8, at the Gulf Quick Stop Food Store, 855 S Cobb Dr SE, in Marietta.

88-octane E15 fuel costs less and can run in any 2001 and newer gas vehicle! Plus, it’s American-made, higher octane fuel that’s better for the environment. And, for the first time, it’s available in Georgia!

In addition, state officials will be on hand for the event, plus festivities will include 94.9 The Bull & Zac Brown Band tics giveaway, face painting, balloons, karaoke/bands, a moon walk for kiddos, and more!

E15 will also be available at the Gulf Sunflower Food Mart 1241 Eaton Road, Madison, Georgia and Gulf Food Mart 405 S. Walnut St., Greensboro Georgia.

http://domesticfuel.com/2015/05/07/geor ... en-friday/
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Re: THE Ethanol Thread pt 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 13 May 2015, 13:45:36

New EIA report says American Ethanol for fuel use at 9.8 percent. Can not figure out how to quote successfully but here is the link,

http://1.usa.gov/1FkalOO
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Re: THE Ethanol Thread pt 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 13 May 2015, 16:22:27

Last January I rented a Flex Fuel Vehicle in Wisconsin - a V8 powered Chevy Suburban (I know, I had reserved a more economical V6-powered Jeep Grand Cherokee, but this vehicle got substituted in a free upgrade when the Jeep was unavailable). E85 was widely available there, and advertised on signage. The remaining fuel was virtually all E10, and an occasional station advertised 100% gasoline - IOW there was choice available.

Pricing was significantly different - the typical ratio was $1.799/g for E85 vs. $2.399/g for E10. That is enough price spread to make it worthwhile to burn the E85 and had it been Summer, I would have done so. The mileage and range would have been reduced by approximately 25% but the E85 (called "corn fuel" by the natives :mrgreen: ) was consistently about 30-33% cheaper, and the vehicle's tank was large (we were adding 28-30 gallons per fuel stop).

However, the rental car agency warned us that if we parked outside in below zero weather, the Suburban might not start the next morning if it had E85 in it. Therefore we used E10 for the entire 2380 miles. The Suburban was the heavier 4WD model, and the engine was the 5.3L Eco-Tec V8, but it actually averaged 24.3 mpg in mixed highway/city usage, with EPA figures 15 mpg city and 21 mpg highway. I was surprised, the lighter V6 Jeep Cherokee would have had similar figures.
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