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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 01 May 2018, 18:47:42

KaiserJeep wrote:I think a lot of the Doomies here are in fact HOPING for Doom. That would mean that they have an excuse to not get out of bed, pull their pants on, and go to work.

Easy for you to say, cloistered in your air-conditioed suburban trophy home. I spent the day working on my orchard. Fertilizing, weeding, and repairing irrigation.

So yeah, doom is just a walk in the park lol
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 01 May 2018, 19:30:47

KaiserJeep wrote:I think a lot of the Doomies here are in fact HOPING for Doom. That would mean that they have an excuse to not get out of bed, pull their pants on, and go to work.




Uh no. I’m actually very well off at 51 yrs old and still work hard running my company. It’s just that you would have to be a complete moron not to see trouble on the horizon, and I’m talking about nearly every aspect of civilization.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 01 May 2018, 19:37:30

It's not seeing trouble ahead that is so hard, it's just being able to guess when. My guess is that trouble from peak oil will be after I'm dead (I'm 66).
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 01 May 2018, 20:05:53

KaiserJeep wrote:I think a lot of the Doomies here are in fact HOPING for Doom. That would mean that they have an excuse to not get out of bed, pull their pants on, and go to work.


To do what? Shut industry down and commit suicide with financialization, "renewables", worthless internet scams, AI Service "Industry", Sickcare Scam, etc.

Apparently KaiserJeep has been totally asleep not realizing that

Only about 10% of Persian Gulf oil goes to the US, and only about 10% of US consumption comes from the Persian Gulf.

80% of Persian Gulf exports go east to Asia.


Guess where all the cheap oil comes from? Not from America or Canada, thats for sure.

Now for the joke of the day:

Google Market Cap: 772 BILLION
Facebook Market Cap: 552 BILLION
Amazon Market Cap: 765 BILLION
Apple Market Cap: 885 BILLION

Industrial Relevance of Google, FB, AMZN, AAPL? Answer: Zilch.

"Cheap Oil is Brilliant, and nothing else is"

And you can forget about EV's without access to cheap oil.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 01 May 2018, 21:55:14

I didn't claim that their hopes of Doom made sense, in fact I think it's escape fantasy.

Oil is only a short term resource, half gone, lasting a bare few decades more. Whoever has the most changes daily and does not matter overmuch.

This is the present mix:
Image

Renewable generating sources once purchased and fabricated don't require further oil just to operate.

About 5/6ths of the energy consumed in the USA can and will be saved. Infrastructure renewal and lifestyle changes will both be required.

You have chosen the "Chicken Little" approach, the most useless of all responses to the coming energy crisis.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 01 May 2018, 23:55:00

KaiserJeep wrote:You have chosen the "Chicken Little" approach, the most useless of all responses to the coming energy crisis.


It's also one that has been a proven non-starter, hence the tumbleweeds here.

I think as oil prices have gradually moved upwards that the reason truck and SUV sales remain strong is that they are getting better mileage than they did in the last oil spike. They're using lighter materials (like the aluminum in the F-150) and parallel hybrids aren't really exotic anymore and so bigger cars are getting mileage smaller sedans used to get. So it's Jeavon's Paradox. What this means is that there's a higher threshold after which people start to look towards BEVs for safe-haven.

The scenario we have at present where gas prices are gradually moving up is probably the best of all possible worlds because it's slow enough not to crash BAU but if it continues, by the time it hits the pain-point, that wave of EVs that's coming in the next 2-5 years will have happened.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby marmico » Wed 02 May 2018, 03:49:45

What pain point?

If regular gasoline averages $3 per gallon in 2018, Jane Chardonnay will work 1.35 hours gross pay to purchase 10 gallons @ 25 miles per gallon to travel 250 miles. Fifteen years earlier in 2003, Joe SixPack worked 1.0 hour to purchase 10 gallons @ 20 miles per gallon to travel 200 miles.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jBcB

2017 global BEV sales have not cracked 1% of total vehicle sales.

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total ... e-volumes/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 02 May 2018, 09:09:55

I DO remember when the price at the corner gas station went to $5.65/g and stayed there for a while. But this is Silly Valley and the extra $2/g was not enough to get most people to change their habits. It was enough to get me on the light rail and commuter train, then incented me to get permission to become a telecommuter a couple of years later.

Since both the light rail and the CALTRAIN had WiFi, what that amounted to was an extra 90 minutes in both commute directions where I did E-Mail on the laptop, and a 2-mile walk home at the end of the day. Perhaps every 10th work day, I drove that 10-12mpg Jeep Wrangler to work, because of meetings that happened outside Silly Valley work hours. My schedule had to include software developer meetings from the contract developers in India, and manufacturing meetings with the contract manufacturer in Hong Kong.

It did work, kinda. But the new development and manufacturing processes sucked from a quality standpoint. The most frustrating aspect of all is that I was not being permitted to excell at my job, which in the end drove me to accept early retirement.

The Brave New World actually sucked, big time. Had Elon Musk's vehicles been more affordable, I might still be pulling my hair out, trying to make a quality product under the new rules. But my Jeep Wrangler actually declined from an original 12-14 mpg to 10-12mpg as I modified it for enhanced offroad performance, with a lift, bigger tires, and extra equipment for camping away from the works of man.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 02 May 2018, 11:53:31

The Tesla Scam is on THE BRINK OF TOTAL COLLAPSE

https://seekingalpha.com/article/416852 ... ght?page=3

"Finally, it has been confirmed that the Director of Western Europe has left, adding to the mass exodus at the top."

"Tesla also raised supercharger rates in recent months, and auto loan rates have soared, making vehicle lending more expensive."

"That was the case when we got InsideEvs' estimate for Tesla (TSLA) Model 3 sales in the US for April. While the number showed a new monthly record for the vehicle, there was barely any growth over March, and it brings into question Tesla's statements about production levels."

"Additionally, the company is now facing a multi-billion dollar lawsuit from Nikola Motor with regard to the Tesla Semi copying the startup's patents."
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 02 May 2018, 11:58:50

Will KaiserJeep read chapter 6 'Energy Technology' in this ridiculous book from some Goldman Lackey and admit THERE IS NO POSSIBLE ENERGY SOLUTION? No, he will not. Since the book is copyright material I cannot divulge the PSEUDOSCIENCE IT CONTAINS.

PV Solar will NOT power EV's.

https://www.worldscientific.com/worldsc ... 1142/q0135

Image
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 02 May 2018, 12:33:49

If Oil stays north of $100 permanently the influx of Ak-47's, RPG's, and IED's into Bankrupt America will permanently end the dream of death vehicles called EV's. The EV is a coffin. This is the kind of vehicle you will need to stay alive in. And it uses a big diesel engine and costs $433,000 US. Have fun in HELL.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Lig ... al_Vehicle

Engine Gale Banks Engineering 866T, 6.6-liter diesel (based on GM Duramax architecture[3]

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Cog » Wed 02 May 2018, 12:50:55

You have no idea how military procurement works Starving Lion. Your ignorance on the matter gives me a headache.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 02 May 2018, 12:55:51

Cog wrote:You have no idea how military procurement works Starving Lion. Your ignorance on the matter gives me a headache.


How much Saudi oil is still coming to Merica, Cog?

go order a Tesla Model 3 EV before Tesla Motors goes bankrupt. It will make a great companion to your Steve Jobs i-JUNK.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Cog » Wed 02 May 2018, 13:12:40

The USA currently imports around 744K bbl/day from SA. Not really significant.

I know that fast crash is on your menu StarvingLion, but it does not appear to be any time soon. So sorry.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby baha » Wed 02 May 2018, 13:51:11

I saw my first Model 3 on-the-road today :)

I see a Model S or X almost everyday. You know the Model Y is next...what does that spell?

S3XY - One of my customers pointed that out the other day. Then she showed me her Model X do it's X-mas show :) But she wouldn't take me for a ride :(
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 02 May 2018, 14:13:31

baha wrote:But she wouldn't take me for a ride :(


Geez. What's wrong with people? I like the folks who help me out with stuff to be happy. Happy people will try to do a good job for you.

When my tax man complimented my messenger bag, I made sure he really liked it vs. just trying to be nice. When he said he really liked it and that he was noticing bags because his was basically worn out, I asked him if he'd like black or brown and said I could get him one locally at a pretty reasonable price. He asked how much it would cost him, and I said. "Call it a tip. I appreciate all your help these past few years with all the complexities with my parents' estate."

Now, guess how much trouble I have getting he or his wife who now helps him to return my calls during tax season? It's not rocket science.

...

For her to say "Not right now because 'X', but how about a rain check?" would be one thing, but since you're servicing the power that presumably helps her charge her Tesla, to just refuse seems rude, stupid, or both, to me.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby baha » Wed 02 May 2018, 14:54:56

Outcast_Searcher wrote:For her to say "Not right now because 'X', but how about a rain check?" would be one thing, but since you're servicing the power that presumably helps her charge her Tesla, to just refuse seems rude, stupid, or both, to me.


No OS, it wasn't like that at all...I was replacing her solar inverter and she flirted with me the whole time :) I know better than to ask a customer for a ride. What I said was 'let me take it for a ride. I bet I could cut some serious doughnuts in that thing'...she politely declined :)

She was a very hot redhead...did I mention I am 60% Irish :)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 02 May 2018, 19:40:18

asg70's dreamworld is collapsing tonight.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-05-02

Elon Musk, in the last three hours, has been openly rude and hostile to analysts and media, told people not to invest in his company and celebrated losing $785 million in three months. Tesla stock is down 5% right now, it started the call at -1.5%.

Call will go down as one of the longest and strangest, that's for sure.

Worth noting that quite a few key executives have left already.

BTW, Tesla lost more money in the first quarter than it ever has in a single quarter, yet "beat expectations."

In light of Ford completely giving up on sedans in the U.S., it is interesting to see Tesla all excited about the Model 3:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 02 May 2018, 20:48:38

Musk said it “wasn’t cool” for professional investors to ask him questions about Tesla’s cash burn or Model 3 deliveries and such so he cut off all questions from the professionals and went to pre-screened easy questions from Tesla fanboys submitted on YouTube.

Wow.

Someone should tell Musk it isn’t cool for him to never meet the sales goals he has been promising for years. It isn’t cool to burn through billions of dollars and never make a dime of profit. It isn’t cool for him to waste billions of Tesla investors dollars propping up money-losing Solar City investors.

Not cool at all.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 02 May 2018, 21:16:37

StarvingLion wrote:asg70's dreamworld is collapsing tonight.

More nonsense, eh? Given that's what you normally post, why expect to be believed when you make such statements?

Tesla's earnings and cash flow weren't as bad as expected and revenues were better than expected, but of course, still aren't good. Still, with $2.7 billion in cash and the ability to borrow or sell stock if needed, "collapsing" is delusional.

Overall, things sounded about as expected to me re business plans (based on following along on a conference call blog).

The biggest surprise, and when the stock suddenly went down about 5%, was when Musk mentioned Tesla is likely nearly two years away from Model Y production, instead of the roughly one year the market was expecting.

That seems like mostly a negative. The positive will be for cash flow. If they're not pouring cash into getting Model Y going, that gives more time to get Model 3 to solid positive cash flows to help fund Model Y. It also allows them an extra year to deal with other growth issues like service centers and more supercharger stations.

Model 3 was confirmed at over 2000 a week production and is supposedly ready to go to 3,000 after the recent production shutdown -- but that's a long way from the 5000 still promised by the end of June.

The big thing to me is whether the claims of 20% or so profit margin on the Model 3 by year end and 25% sometime next year is anything near accurate.

So, still muddling along, still having problems, but still ramping toward break-even. So still kind of a middling ground between the bear claims of insta-doom and the fanboi claims of instant mega-profits, which is about as expected for the big picture.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/02/tesla-q ... nings.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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