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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 15:13:59

On the contrary the low present price of gas is a large factor holding back EV sales and demand. Tesla's production problems being another.Some people do do the numbers before they buy. The environmental effect of going EV can't be determined until we know how the needed extra electricity will be produced and distributed and what will happen to the battery packs after they are worn out. When we get to >$6.00 gas those things will sort themselves out pretty quickly.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 15:41:14

Lithium battery recycling already exists, from everything from AA cells to vehicle battery packs. The value of the salvaged materials means that the cost is nominal, and one recycler here in Silly Valley is accepting Lithium batteries at zero charge, while still charging for lead-acid recycling.

With recycling and new battery designs and new manufacturers, battery costs are decreasing at a steady rate. The future price gyrations that petroleum fuels go through are of course anybody's guess, I've learned that much after a few years on the Forum.

Still, my three existing vehicles were made in 1967, 2001, and 2003. I tend to use things as long as there is economical use left in them. But it's getting hard to find lead substitute for the 1967 Kaiser Jeepster, I might have to have the Buick 225 V-6 heads reworked for lead-free fuels with hardened valve seats.

There was a lump under a tarp in the Nantucket property. I lifted the tarp and saw the decayed remains of the FIL's 1952 Willys CJ-2A. He had a 1-car garage so it spent two hard decades outdoors, and IIRC has been off the road for 15+ years. We found the title in the office paperwork, so I guess I own a 4th Jeep now. The title is really the only thing of value left, although I will carefully offer all the parts for resale before restoring it. If "restore" is the right word for replacing the frame, suspension, body tub, hood, fenders, and complete powertrain with new parts, and registering the result as a 1952 Willys CJ-2A. It turns out that you can buy about 95% of the parts either in the JC Whitney catalog, or in the case of the frame/body/misc sheet-metal, as new parts imported from the Phillipines. Sounds like a project for next Winter, if I can evict the wife's SUV from the garage.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 15:51:58

vtsnowedin wrote: For general discussions I think there are two possible end points Five years at the end of the payments and ten years when well worn and 150K on the dial. I might use $4.00 gas for a five year computation and say $6.50 for a ten year plot. For electricity my local numbers are above national averages but pick 0.25/KWH for five years and 0.35/KWH for ten years.
So for a five year on a Toyota Camry LE list $25,149 at 0.9% interest for 60 ms. $565 other dealer fees etc.out the door for $26,000 rate 28/39 mpg use 32 for 75K miles =2350 gallons @$4.00=$9400. 15 oil changes at 5000 miles @$50 each=$750,
One set of tires @$150 each =$600. Repairs and inspections, got to plan on at least one, say $1000 . Insurance @1000/year=$5000. State tax registration and title $1250
That all adds up to......$44,000. Trade in value of a five year old LE with 75K on it is just over $7000 so 44,000-7000=37,000/75,000miles=$0.493/ mile.
I'll let you do the Tesla. :)
Edited to correct a typo on the gas estimated cost. :oops:

Fair enough for a back of the envelope exercise, and 50 cents a mile for a midsize ICE expenses certainly passes the "sanity check" barrier.

So for electricity efficiency, I'm seeing estimates of 23.7 KWH per 100 miles driven for the model 3. Given that's about 40% more efficient than the heavier model S at 34.4 KWH, that sounds reasonable.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/08/07/te ... ge-option/

I'll show my math (since I've never done this for an EV, and I might make a stupid assumption or error) and use your figures. So if my math seems wrong, by all means let me know.)

So, using the same 75,000 miles, that's 750 * 23.7 KWH * $0.25 / KWH = $4450ish for electricity.

My reading on Model 3 maintenance seems it's a bit vague. So I think the $1000 is a reasonable figure for five years (recommended brake fluid and battery cooling fluid, plus inspections). If one wanted to be cautious and do an official Tesla annual inspection, it would be perhaps $2000 more. On Reddit, opinions vary on whether doing that is advisable or a rip-off.

I'll assume midsize sedan tires are midsize sedan tires for this exercise.

The assumptions on the price of a Model 3 are perhaps the trickiest. The price will go down next year IF the $35,000 version becomes available. OTOH, the federal tax incentive is likely to decrease.

I think I'll use $35,000 base plus $1000 mandatory dealer fee, assume black (no charge) use $1500 for the nicer wheels (wheels are a big deal to me), assume the $9000 long range battery, but NOT use the
very popular $5000 luxury package or all the Autopilot, etc. packages, which add up real quickly.
So I get $35,000 + $1000 + $1500 + $9000 - $7500 (tax credit) to get $39,000 for the car. I'll use $2000 for tax, registration and title, given the $46,500 list price of the car before the tax rebate.

The trade, IMO, is a bit tricky too. Not much data thus far on the Model 3. You have technology improvements vs. long life impacting the likely price for a used Tesla.

I think I'll use $25,000 for the 5 year price. I'm sure that will generate plenty of hate from both sides. Since I'm not in car sales, I'll let someone else "fix" that if it's necessary. :)

Now, OTOH, with the more expensive car and all the articles about long and expensive repairs for body damage, I think it's fair to estimate higher insurance costs. I'll go with $1500 a year on that.

I don't see the annual tax/title fee, so I'll ignore that. (In my state, the $1250 would have been only for the first year so if I'm just off there, my bad).

So for a rough 5 year cost of ownership, I get


$39,000 - $25,000 = $14,000 depreciation
$2000 initial taxes/license first year
$4450 electricity
$7500 insurance
$1000 basic maintenance (mostly recommended fluid changes)
$600 tires (No oil changes of course)
------------
So I get $29,550 / 75,000 miles = 39.4 cents a mile.

Since the dominant figure is clearly the depreciation, if I use $24,000 in depreciation, then we get

$39,550 / 75,000 miles = 59.73+ cents a mile.

So at this point, unless I made dumb math errors or bad assumptions, the cost per mile of 5 years of driving a standard new Camry LE vs. a Tesla Model 3 with long range battery (a must, for now) but not much added on -- the costs are roughly comparable.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 15:52:14

KaiserJeep wrote:Lithium battery recycling already exists, from everything from AA cells to vehicle battery packs. The value of the salvaged materials means that the cost is nominal, and one recycler here in Silly Valley is accepting Lithium batteries at zero charge, while still charging for lead-acid recycling.

With recycling and new battery designs and new manufacturers, battery costs are decreasing at a steady rate. The future price gyrations that petroleum fuels go through are of course anybody's guess, I've learned that much after a few years on the Forum.

Still, my three existing vehicles were made in 1967, 2001, and 2003. I tend to use things as long as there is economical use left in them. But it's getting hard to find lead substitute for the 1967 Kaiser Jeepster, I might have to have the Buick 225 V-6 heads reworked for lead-free fuels with hardened valve seats.
For the price of that engine work you could probably buy a 2003 -2008 Jeep with a lot of life left in it.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 16:01:00

vtsnowedin wrote:-snip-
For the price of that engine work you could probably buy a 2003 -2008 Jeep with a lot of life left in it.


I already HAVE a 2003 with only 56,000 miles. The 1967 Jeepster has been fully restored and is actually valued higher than the 2001 Grand Cherokee and 2003 Wrangler Rubicon put together. It's mostly original, save for some custom bodywork to fit LT33X12.50R15 tires, and a rollbar, and a custom softop. Ferrari Red paint and an original TH400 automatic.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 16:14:23

outcast searcher wrote:
I don't see the annual tax/title fee, so I'll ignore that. (In my state, the $1250 would have been only for the first year so if I'm just off there, my bad).

It varies state to state but not by much over the life of the car.
Vermont has a purchase tax of six percent on your net trade then $76 per year on a gas or diesel car registration and $132 a year for electric or any other fuel. All numbers likely to increase in the future. My figure was a guesstimate on the total of five years of registration plus six percent of the 13,700 difference between some car you would trade in against the 26,000 initial purchase price of the Toyota. I might be a bit low there but think I have been conservative enough elsewhere to trust my bottom line.
The $7500 tax credit is what makes the EV competitive and I have to wonder how long those credits will last.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 16:16:23

KaiserJeep wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:-snip-
For the price of that engine work you could probably buy a 2003 -2008 Jeep with a lot of life left in it.


I already HAVE a 2003 with only 56,000 miles. The 1967 Jeepster has been fully restored and is actually valued higher than the 2001 Grand Cherokee and 2003 Wrangler Rubicon put together. It's mostly original, save for some custom bodywork to fit LT33X12.50R15 tires, and a rollbar, and a custom softop. Ferrari Red paint and an original TH400 automatic.

Ahh Your Baby! Cost does not matter. :)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 18:20:08

The problem is, I have two babies, the 1967 and the 2003. The problem being, that annoys the wife.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 18:38:00

KaiserJeep wrote:The problem is, I have two babies, the 1967 and the 2003. The problem being, that annoys the wife.

Well a wife has to be annoyed about something or they think they are not doing the job properly. :)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 18:41:14

vtsnowedin wrote: It varies state to state but not by much over the life of the car.
Vermont has a purchase tax of six percent on your net trade ...

Ah, I never considered the net thing.

Since that's where they have more room to rip you off (trying to STEAL the trade whenever I got a quote on that), I've virtually never done a trade with a dealer.

Usually I drive a car until it's worth a trivial amount, and give it to someone poor (sell it for $1 to avoid any legal technicalities).

Or, I give it to a friend or a relative in need. Everyone wins but the dealer, which is OK with me.

So, I'd always done the 6% thing on the entire value of the car, not knowing if the net value minus trade even applied. :oops:

Well, you can't know everything, and at least I was focused on not getting ripped off. With ONLY needing to focus on the fair cash price for the new car, being willing to shop and leave a stubborn dealer, at least I know I'm not "the one" who gets the worst deal of the week or something. :roll:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 19:28:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: It varies state to state but not by much over the life of the car.
Vermont has a purchase tax of six percent on your net trade ...

Ah, I never considered the net thing.

Since that's where they have more room to rip you off (trying to STEAL the trade whenever I got a quote on that), I've virtually never done a trade with a dealer.

Usually I drive a car until it's worth a trivial amount, and give it to someone poor (sell it for $1 to avoid any legal technicalities).

Or, I give it to a friend or a relative in need. Everyone wins but the dealer, which is OK with me.

So, I'd always done the 6% thing on the entire value of the car, not knowing if the net value minus trade even applied. :oops:

Well, you can't know everything, and at least I was focused on not getting ripped off. With ONLY needing to focus on the fair cash price for the new car, being willing to shop and leave a stubborn dealer, at least I know I'm not "the one" who gets the worst deal of the week or something. :roll:

Oh I have literally given the keys and the title to the tow truck driver and told him to take it right to the crusher. You can usually get ten percent off if you have no trade in and it certainly simplifies your mental calculations when they are trying to sell you up to more car then you need or can afford. I also like to ask for a bottom line price and then when they try to slip in some dealer prep or document preparation fees at the last minute tear up the check I have already written and walk out the door. It's fun watching a salesman run flat out trying to get to you before you leave the parking lot. :lol:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 13:06:01

How can you tax something (electricty from EV use) when the EV-Freeloader doesn't pay for anything?

The WindMill Scammers send their bills (cannot even keep the lights on) to the idling gas turbines (FF intrastructure).

The already laughable US Service "industry" would no longer exist with EV's.

You're all completely blitzed out of your gourds.

You people are EXPERTS IN SELF-BANKRUPTCY.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 14:13:11

StarvingLion wrote:How can you tax something (electricty from EV use) when the EV-Freeloader doesn't pay for anything?

How hard would it be to just charge appreciably more at registration time for EV's? Not hard at ALL is the answer.

And let's pretend the "EV freeloader" doesn't buy things like tires, cabin air filters, suspension parts, windshield wiper blades, etc. (which can all be taxed).

Also, let's pretend all EV's are charged with home solar. And that solar panels can't be taxed. And that the EV buyer doesn't pay transaction taxes. And that the EV tax credits (which I presume SL is whining about) will last forever.

But as usual, SL mindlessly pretends it's all doom all the time, supported mostly by crazy ranting, as though that's credible.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 17 Mar 2018, 12:27:50

Image
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Mar 2018, 12:36:35

London is going black cab electric.
https://www.usatoday.com/picture-galler ... 108340524/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Mar 2018, 23:28:40

StarvingLion wrote:How can you tax something (electricty from EV use) when the EV-Freeloader doesn't pay for anything?


Good question. Wife pays no taxes on the free fuel for her EV. And she doesn't think of it as being a freeloader, but a benny provided by the bank.

StarvingLion wrote:The already laughable US Service "industry" would no longer exist with EV's.

You're all completely blitzed out of your gourds.

You people are EXPERTS IN SELF-BANKRUPTCY.


And you didn't leave like you said you would when I proved last time that currency wasn't worthless. Want to do it again? I bet I can sell the wife's EV, add some cash, and buy another car with it...worthless EV and worthless currency... trade for a brand new car. What do you say, if I pull it off will you promise to stop spouting nonsense and promise to go away again...your theories having been so easy to make a joke of?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 11:58:01

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:How can you tax something (electricty from EV use) when the EV-Freeloader doesn't pay for anything?

How hard would it be to just charge appreciably more at registration time for EV's? Not hard at ALL is the answer.

And let's pretend the "EV freeloader" doesn't buy things like tires, cabin air filters, suspension parts, windshield wiper blades, etc. (which can all be taxed).

Also, let's pretend all EV's are charged with home solar. And that solar panels can't be taxed. And that the EV buyer doesn't pay transaction taxes. And that the EV tax credits (which I presume SL is whining about) will last forever.

But as usual, SL mindlessly pretends it's all doom all the time, supported mostly by crazy ranting, as though that's credible.


All those bills from the EV-Deadbeat are sent to the FF INdustry. Gas turbines and WindMills cannot coexist. They are parallel energy systems. The Phony Transition is a transition toward immediate bankruptcy caused by higher electricity prices. Go look at the Jacobsen "Plan". It cannot even ensure that turning the light switch to the 'on' position will work (demand management).

What does the EV-Deadbeat actually do? Go drive to the factory? There are none in the "Renewables" scam. I guess the EV-Deadbeats will all become doctors and managers. Cuba and Finland already tried that. Didn't work.

There is no such thing as a Solar/Nuclear Currency. Without oil, you may as well tie a rock to your foot and jump off a bridge. You're toast.

"Renewable" Energy is the SpaceShuttle of Energy. The Space Shuttle costed 1000x that of conventional rockets from the 60's. Guess what? The Space Shuttle is bankrupt.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 13:39:37

Really starving lion you should eat more or go back on your meds.You are getting crazier by the day. You wont respond to valid points with well reasoned or plausible answers so attempting to discuss issues with you is a waste of our time. The world is not going bankrupt or falling apart today no matter how many times you say it.
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Why don’t I have an electric car?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 21:47:50


Electric vehicles are on the move. Last year, the number of EVs being driven on the world’s roads increased by almost 50 per cent. According to some analysis, electric vehicles will be a crucial transformative force in the global energy market forcing oil demand to peak by 2020. They bring advantages in terms of parking and congestion charges. They are quiet and, in terms of low level pollution, clean. Why then, as a reasonably informed citizen, do I not have one? I can afford an EV — indeed, I found that they were cheaper than I expected. There are models that suit my needs and I am not worried about the range — the motorways I drive down have sufficient charging points. The single decisive reason is that I have no convenient way of charging an EV at home.


Why don’t I have an electric car?
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Driving An Electric Vehicle Is Far Cleaner Than Driving On G

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 26 Mar 2018, 13:49:03


Driving an electric vehicle (EV) has obvious climate benefits: zero tailpipe emissions. But because EVs are charged by power grids that burn fossil fuels, they aren’t necessarily zero-carbon. An EV’s carbon footprint depends on whether its power comes from renewables or fossil, and quantifying exactly how clean EVs are compared to gasoline-powered vehicles has been tough – until now. New data shows that in every corner of the United States, driving an EV produces significantly fewer greenhouse gas emissions than cars powered only by gasoline, regardless of the local power mix. Today, an average EV on the road in the U.S. has the same greenhouse-gas emissions as a car getting 80 miles per gallon (MPG). That’s up from 73 MPG in 2017, and far greater than the average gas-powered car available for sale in the U.S., which hit a record 24.7 MPG in 2016. Average miles per


Driving An Electric Vehicle Is Far Cleaner Than Driving On Gasoline
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