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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 17:48:43

Tanada wrote:Do commercial EV's get the same $7500.00 subsidy that private vehicles get from income tax? If so this would be a nice payment for a large purchasers like UPS and FedEx.
Ugh. Taxes. I am uncertain how it works exactly. But tax form 8936 looks like it does indeed apply to businesses as well. At first I thought they were capped at $2500 per line 10, but per line 6 that limitation does not apply to 4 or more wheeled vehicles. So I think businesses still get the full $7500. But I think there is a 14,000 pound weight limit. These trucks might be too heavy for that limit. The Daimler eCanter weighs 7.49 tonnes or over 16,000 pounds.

Form 8936 | Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit
...
Part II Credit for Business/Investment Use Part of Vehicle
Tax Form 8936 - Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit

My business purchased an X in September of 2016. The vehicle is in the business's name and qualifies for the Hummer Deduction--so on that issue I'm good.

I've looked at IRS form 8936 in an attempt to apply for the $7500 Tax Credit, but my CPA says that form indicates only a $2500 Tax Credit--not $7500. Is this the right form? Any suggestions?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Your vehicle will qualify for the $7,500 vehicle credit at the business level. You do not say if your business is a flow-through entity or not. There are limitations to this credit when the vehicle is used in business. First the credit is limited by the income tax on the income generated by the business--i.e., if the business has a loss for the year--no current year credit, of if the income was a small number, then a small credit.

Second, it is subject to AMT. The credit cannot reduce your income tax below AMT. The good news is that the unused credit can be carried forward up to twenty years. I highly recommend that you find form 3800, General Business Credit, and read the instructions thereon to understand how all this flows.

Third, the depreciable basis of the vehicle must be reduced by any credit taken thereon. So, right from the git-go, your basis is reduced by $7,500. I would also go so far as to reduce the basis by any additional rebate (like we get in California.)

Fourth, there may be recapture of the credit if business use falls below 50%--that is an obscure rule, and I have not researched it in years. So don't quote me, but be aware of this twist.
Business purchase and the $7500 FEDERAL tax credit
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 19:58:40

Tesla is finally allowing reservation holders who aren't employees or current/prior Tesla owners to configure.

https://electrek.co/2018/02/22/tesla-mo ... on-owners/

The invites are going out across the entire US including places like Nebraska, so it appears to be finally reverting to something akin to first-come-first-serve, with the caveat that you have to wait for standard range and AWD.

I don't think they have their much-vaunted robotic system setup yet that was coming over from Europe so I don't expect to see a major uptick in output. Any uptick is going to be due to the kludgy system they're using, one that has, to date, led to many fit-and-finish issues.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 17:51:26

Toyota found a way to halve the amount of neodymium needed for EV motors. Samsung found a way to reduce cobalt needed in lithium batteries to minimal levels.

Toyota Motor Corp has found a way to make electric vehicles (EVs) more affordable and less vulnerable to shortages in supply. The key for such new wave of EVs is a magnet for electric motors developed by the Japanese firm, which halves the use of a rare earth called neodymium and eliminates the use of others called terbium and dysprosium. In their place, Toyota will use the more abundant rare earths lanthanum and cerium, which also cost about 20 times less than neodymium. The automaker, which plans to ask suppliers to make such magnets, said it aims to use them in its EVs within the next 10 years. With prices of neodymium still rising and rare earths exports from China dropping by 30 percent in 2010 as it keeps more of the metals for its own electric car industry — the world’s biggest —,Toyota’s work seems perfectly timed.

The announcement also comes just a week after Samsung SDI, South Korea’s leading battery maker, unveiled plans to recycle cobalt from used mobile phones and develop lithium-ion batteries with minimum content of the metal, or no cobalt at all, as a way to offset soaring prices for the silver-grey commodity.
Toyota Finds A Way To Make Cheaper EVs
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 14:48:56

kublikhan wrote:Toyota found a way to halve the amount of neodymium needed for EV motors. Samsung found a way to reduce cobalt needed in lithium batteries to minimal levels.

Toyota Finds A Way To Make Cheaper EVs

Thanks for posting this, kub.

Reflecting the way the BAU world tends to work over time (substitution for better/cheaper materials, recycling, etc), despite all its problems.

And yet, will the fast crash doomer crowd ever admit this. Bueller? <crickets, I expect>

...

Now, the downside of the ranges of predicting only 40 to 140 million EV's in the world in 20ish years, per the article, is a FAR cry from the Tony Seba predictions, OTOH -- is a scary wake-up reminder, IMO.

One would think if EV's were going to be cheaper and easier to produce in a decade, given AGW continuing, battery tech improving, etc, that we'd be seeing far more of an upward curve in the production numbers.

Too bad it's so hard to predict these things.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 19:48:28

Outcast_Searcher wrote:One would think if EV's were going to be cheaper and easier to produce in a decade, given AGW continuing, battery tech improving, etc, that we'd be seeing far more of an upward curve in the production numbers.

Too bad it's so hard to predict these things.

You should consider that the number of automobiles today is based on the cost of the cars and the fuel to run them factored in by the utility the owners receive from owning and operating them. There is no real reason why the world needs the one billion cars and trucks it has on the road today other then we do it because we can and like the results.
When gas becomes scarce and expensive the number of ICE cars will decline and the number of EVs will climb and as a percentage of the total will soar.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 23:27:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And yet, will the fast crash doomer crowd ever admit this. Bueller? <crickets, I expect>


The constant sturm and drang of fast-crash doom seems to have gone silent with the exit of Short and PStarr. I don't think the few doomers who are left are anywhere near as strident or committed. Even Onlooker has become bored enough due to BAU continuing apace that he is relegating himself to 911 troothery.

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So if you view this as a war, peak-oil doomers have effectively lost (for now).

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 13:28:06

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:One would think if EV's were going to be cheaper and easier to produce in a decade, given AGW continuing, battery tech improving, etc, that we'd be seeing far more of an upward curve in the production numbers.

Too bad it's so hard to predict these things.

You should consider that the number of automobiles today is based on the cost of the cars and the fuel to run them factored in by the utility the owners receive from owning and operating them.

Well, yes. That is COMPLETELY obvious, and I consider that, all the time when comparing various types of cars. And I've stated the cost differential and expectations for that repeatedly when discussing traditional ICE's vs. various flavors of EV's on this site.

vtsnowedin wrote:There is no real reason why the world needs the one billion cars and trucks it has on the road today other then we do it because we can and like the results.

Again, this is obvious. With one billion plus cars on the road today, and MANY more forecast to be produced in the next 20 years, that makes the percentage of fleet penetration required by EV's to be even lower, to get them above the predicted numbers re the article's sources (in the range of 40 to 140 million).

vtsnowedin wrote: When gas becomes scarce and expensive the number of ICE cars will decline and the number of EVs will climb and as a percentage of the total will soar.

That's one way. OTOH, cheaper and more efficient and longer lasting EV components is another way. Low cost of fuel (even compared to today's FF prices) and maintenance and low rates of depreciation relative to ICE's are another.

If the cost of running a car declines meaningfully, then the net utility to the owner rises meaningfully.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 13:49:12

I saw a news piece this morning where in metro areas well served by Uber the demand for parking garage space has dropped by twenty five percent. That may bring down the price of parking and relieve congestion as fewer total cars come and go during rush hours. Perhaps we will have price competition between the Uber drivers and the parking garages.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 14:02:21

vtsnowedin wrote:I saw a news piece this morning where in metro areas well served by Uber the demand for parking garage space has dropped by twenty five percent. That may bring down the price of parking and relieve congestion as fewer total cars come and go during rush hours. Perhaps we will have price competition between the Uber drivers and the parking garages.

Wow. I had no idea ridesharing was having that big an impact re side effects -- at least not this quickly. (I live in a top-100 US city, but nothing REMOTELY like the huge metro areas that are hubs for Uber, Lyft, etc).

If we have automated cars and dirt cheap driverless Uber (or whatever) taxis take over most driving, then sure, the demand for parking will plummet dramatically. (Maybe enough to eliminate much on-street parking, and reduce traffic congestion without having to build more roads/lanes).

...

The economics of this never ceases to surprise me. Standing in line at McDonald's recently I was behind some driver picking up an "Uber order". I remarked that for McDonald's, I didn't get the economics. I said I understand someone paying $3 to have a pizza place deliver a $20 pizza. But I don't understand someone paying the typical fares of Uber to deliver $10 or less of cheap fast food, when that kind of eliminates the whole cheap variable.

He replied that his impression, via such deliveries he's made, is that many people are too lazy to put on some clothes/shoes, and drive to get their own, even in the drive through lane. Not just people entertaining guests or not wanting to drive on bad roads -- just generally.

...

But if that's the case, that would seem to be another stake through the heart that the masses are on the knife-edge of economic failure in this economy. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Uber deliveries involve fees.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 06:53:53

Ridesharing is just an easier sell than carpooling or public transit. I think people will always prefer the status owning their own cars but when push comes to shove people will go with what they can afford. If they feel they aren't giving up any freedom to rideshare, then they won't take it as a mark of shame to admit they don't own their own car. It's just one of those cultural tipping point things I think we'll pass through.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 14:13:40

asg70 wrote:Ridesharing is just an easier sell than carpooling or public transit. I think people will always prefer the status owning their own cars but when push comes to shove people will go with what they can afford. If they feel they aren't giving up any freedom to rideshare, then they won't take it as a mark of shame to admit they don't own their own car. It's just one of those cultural tipping point things I think we'll pass through.

What I like, as I age, is the flexibility, re ridesharing.

30ish years ago, I did my own minor car maintenance to learn things and save money. So plugs, filters, batteries, minor tweaks to the carb, etc. Aside from a sore back from leaning over the car too long, no ill effects.

Now, hell, I don't even want to open the hood normally, much less crawl under the car or fool around with wrenches, the way my joints tend to act. The other day I had the oil changed in the Camry the first time. (One year, synthetic oil -- gotta love it). When I wanted to sanity check what Jiffy Lube did, it occurred to me I'd never been under the hood, even when I bought the car, given Toyota's reputation, the test drive, and how little of the work I want to do myself. I was pleasantly surprised by how nice things looked. :oops: (In earlier years, the configuration of the engine compartment and access to things was a meaningful consideration for me).

And now, to some extent, with younger generations, you have people who don't even want to DRIVE, much less get under the hood.

If ridesharers can keep the option of (paying more and) having the car to themselves when they want, I think that barrier is small now, at least with millennials. The smart phone has replaced the car as the popular "trinket" status symbol, IMO.

I agree that the main issue will be relative affordability for most folks.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 17:00:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
asg70 wrote:Ridesharing is just an easier sell than carpooling or public transit. I think people will always prefer the status owning their own cars but when push comes to shove people will go with what they can afford. If they feel they aren't giving up any freedom to rideshare, then they won't take it as a mark of shame to admit they don't own their own car. It's just one of those cultural tipping point things I think we'll pass through.

What I like, as I age, is the flexibility, re ridesharing.

30ish years ago, I did my own minor car maintenance to learn things and save money. So plugs, filters, batteries, minor tweaks to the carb, etc. Aside from a sore back from leaning over the car too long, no ill effects.

Now, hell, I don't even want to open the hood normally, much less crawl under the car or fool around with wrenches, the way my joints tend to act. The other day I had the oil changed in the Camry the first time. (One year, synthetic oil -- gotta love it). When I wanted to sanity check what Jiffy Lube did, it occurred to me I'd never been under the hood, even when I bought the car, given Toyota's reputation, the test drive, and how little of the work I want to do myself. I was pleasantly surprised by how nice things looked. :oops: (In earlier years, the configuration of the engine compartment and access to things was a meaningful consideration for me).

And now, to some extent, with younger generations, you have people who don't even want to DRIVE, much less get under the hood.

If ridesharers can keep the option of (paying more and) having the car to themselves when they want, I think that barrier is small now, at least with millennials. The smart phone has replaced the car as the popular "trinket" status symbol, IMO.

I agree that the main issue will be relative affordability for most folks.

Not wanting to be called out of bed in the middle of the night unnecessarily I taught all my girls how to change a tire by themselves before I let them take their drivers test. This has served them all pretty well over the years. When the middle daughter came home from the second gulf war where she operated and maintained cranes and bulldozers we went shopping for the car she was buying with her accumulated BOG pay checks you should have seen the look on the salesman's face when she asked to see where the oil filter was so she could determine how easy it would be to change it.
It became clear that he didn't know how or where to change an oil filter and couldn't imagine that a 5 ft. 10 in. blue eyed blond would know how, or get her hands dirty doing it herself.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 19:02:21

vtsnowedin wrote:Not wanting to be called out of bed in the middle of the night unnecessarily I taught all my girls how to change a tire by themselves before I let them take their drivers test. This has served them all pretty well over the years. When the middle daughter came home from the second gulf war where she operated and maintained cranes and bulldozers we went shopping for the car she was buying with her accumulated BOG pay checks you should have seen the look on the salesman's face when she asked to see where the oil filter was so she could determine how easy it would be to change it.
It became clear that he didn't know how or where to change an oil filter and couldn't imagine that a 5 ft. 10 in. blue eyed blond would know how, or get her hands dirty doing it herself.

Seems very smart on having kids be able to change the tire. Runflats are kind of a disaster re cost, comfort (stiff sidewalls make a HARD ride), and mileage you can get on the tires.

My friends with college age kids also ensure they have cards for calling reliable tow companies. There are dark places at night that re safety, anyone endangering their life isn't worth a few bucks. According to an article I read about 30 years ago (modern tire technology may have changed this), ensuring you replace your tires before they get marginal re tread depth makes it something like 30 times less likely you have a flat while driving. Seemed like money well spent to me. I've had two flats while driving in 40 years, and based on some symptoms/hindsight, I suspect tire damage or a problem with the tire (shuddering I hadn't diagnosed yet) in both cases.

Re the salesman not knowing how to change the oil, this is one of my pet peeves when buying cars. Not only are the dealerships pushy and willing to take you for all they can, their salespeople often know little about the cars. Like not having even looked at the owners manual or service manual carefully. It's not like most dealerships are busy every minute...
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 19:47:06

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Re the salesman not knowing how to change the oil, this is one of my pet peeves when buying cars. Not only are the dealerships pushy and willing to take you for all they can, their salespeople often know little about the cars. Like not having even looked at the owners manual or service manual carefully. It's not like most dealerships are busy every minute...
Around here the dealers treat their salesmen very shabbily so there is a considerable turnover. The salesman that first hits you up is the new guy that has sold less then a dozen cars and has most of his experience in cleaning snow off cars and moving them to let the snow get plowed.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 01:42:58

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 10:36:23

Good find. Mastering supercapacitors probably has better odds than fusion power but is probably still quite a ways off. If it does happen, however, it will destroy the emerging lithium economy overnight.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 10:46:40

Talk about the potential for explosions...I am familiar with 2 megwatt RF transmitters that contained large high voltage capacitors. They were cased in steel and then placed behind scattershields to catch the steel fragments when they exploded. Think huge amount of energy in a small space.

IMHO supercapacitors will probably attract a lot of attention from investors who will all lose their investments.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 12:36:19

KaiserJeep wrote:Talk about the potential for explosions...I am familiar with 2 megwatt RF transmitters that contained large high voltage capacitors. They were cased in steel and then placed behind scattershields to catch the steel fragments when they exploded. Think huge amount of energy in a small space.

IMHO supercapacitors will probably attract a lot of attention from investors who will all lose their investments.

Clearly, safety would be the first common sense hurdle. Having to encase the power source in a thick metal or composite (heavy) case and then replace the whole thing when it explodes on occasion sounds like a non-starter.

It's also not like schemes to radically improve LI batteries haven't ended in complete failure in the past. Look at the much touted (in the past) A123 Systems, which went bankrupt before being bought out, for example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A123_Systems

I'm all for improving technology, but re batteries, somehow incremental improvements taking decades, like generally happens with technology as it matures, seems a far more likely outcome, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 13:38:42

The is the EV of the future I believe in...its the Vacuum Cleaner Car. It empties your electronic "money" account while you head to the dope committee meetings. More test passers will pretend they know something about physics while they plod their way to nowhere burning up 2.8 billion.

https://jalopnik.com/dysons-plan-to-bui ... 1823052977

Dyson is mostly known as a prominent manufacturer of vacuum cleaners and hand dryers, and that’s fine. But in September it announced it wanted to get into the electric car business, and it had $2.8 billion with which to do it. Now the Financial Times has got more details on how it plans to do it, and how it just might work.

Much of the Dyson plan relies on solid state batteries, which are supposed to be the next step beyond the lithium ion batteries widely used in cell phones, laptops, and electric cars like those made by Tesla. But while those are supposed to be the main crux of Dyson’s electric car argument, they likely won’t go in the first car, the FT reports. Yes, I said FIRST car:

The company is initially planning a range of three vehicles, according to two people. The first car will be used to establish a route to market, a supply chain and a potential customer base. Because of this, the vehicle will have a relatively low production run — in the single-digit thousands, three people said.

There are also rumors of carbon fiber being a large component of the cars, but to be honest we’re probably way too far out to see whether that will happen. Plus, Dyson doesn’t have a car factory yet. Or a dealership network. Or really, anything car-related that the public can see.

Of course, that $2.8 billion certainly helps. Most manufacturers spend around $500 million to $1 billion to develop new cars, so $2.8 billion should, theoretically, be easy, if that’s all Dyson was doing.

It has to do much more than that.

But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. As we all know by now, Tesla has mostly done it. It’s just an incredibly steep hill to climb.

On the other hand, Tesla’s got around $9.6 billion in long-term debt at this point, and there’s a non-zero chance it’ll need more in the future. That makes $2.8 billion look like a relative pittance, and Tesla’s only managed to bring one mass-market car to customers (sort of), not two. And you may have trouble convincing people your car is more than an appliance when you’re mostly known for, well, appliances.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 12:54:09

I'm all for improving technology, but re batteries, somehow incremental improvements taking decades, like generally happens with technology as it matures, seems a far more likely outcome,


Decades??? Hahahaha...the dollar will be toilet paper by 2023. Dude, you better find a way to get an actual hard currency (called oil) out of the swiss cheese of millions of drill bores called Scamerica instead of your hopeless battery fantasies.
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