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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 10:29:08

Did Chevy ever say there would be an AWD Bolt?

What the Bolt needs is faster fast-charge capacity and a sensor package to enable full autonomy (just to future-proof it, like the 3).

Meanwhile, on Sunday Musk announced that the first production 3s will roll off the assembly line in only two weeks. They've already been making Model 3 batteries at the gigafactory so they've gotta go somewhere soon.

I also read an article recently talking about how China has decided to become the world leader in lithium ion battery production, similar to how it has been largely responsible for flooding the market with cheap solar panels. The capacity poised to come online, if the article is correct, would dwarf the Gigafactory, since everything China does is on a massive scale. If that were to happen then it could disrupt things at a whole new level.

If economy of scale reaches that level then having battery suppliers as middlemen may not incur that much overhead anymore and the major automakers can buy from these suppliers and still keep the price of long-range EVs at a Model 3 pricepoint (and not require taking a loss as GM does with the Bolt).

But you can see from these articles that the convergence point here is 2020-2025. By 2025 I would expect to see a healthy variety of Tesla-grade EVs on the market at the $35K base pricepoint. If these do well I would expect most of the automakers to stop doing token compliance cars and jump in.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 11:45:52

Chevy called the Bolt both an "SUV" and a "crossover" from time to time. I assumed that the terminology meant AWD, but maybe not.

I'm not sure I can wait until 2025 to buy my EV. Perhaps by then the used Tesla "S" with AWD will be more reasonably priced, they should get real cheap when the battery replacement approaches.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 12:55:13

--range anxiety,
--11 miles/hour L2 charging vs 500 miles/10 minutes ICE refueling.
--1,344,000 charging stations necessary to replace all existing gas pumps. (There are 168,000 retail locations in the U.S. that sell fuel to the public. The average number of pump stations is 4, each has 2 filling units)

We reached out to Chevy, and got the following response from Fred Ligouri of Chevrolet Communications.

Short answer:

    The current list price of a Bolt EV HV battery pack is $15,734.29 and the part number is 24285978.

And expensive batteries.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 13:18:32

There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV. If someone has a 100+ mile commute they should have their head examined.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 13:45:46

asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV. If someone has a 100+ mile commute they should have their head examined.

Half that in winter
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 22:28:11

pstarr wrote:--range anxiety,
--11 miles/hour L2 charging vs 500 miles/10 minutes ICE refueling.


From my page on Robot-Ev's

https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/robot-cars/

7. The end of the fuel ‘chicken and egg’ Catch-22.

You know the ‘chicken and egg’ problem — no company wants to build a hydrogen highway because there are no hydrogen customers, and no customers want to buy a hydrogen car because they is no hydrogen highway yet. The companies don’t want to lose a billion dollars building infrastructure that may not get used, and the customer doesn’t want to invest $25,000 in a car that may not have a fuelling infrastructure. The robot-taxi solves all this. The car company has guaranteed customers hiring their vehicles on an as-needs basis. The customers are making a spot-decision about hiring a car for the next 14 minutes, not buying one for the next 14 years! We will not care what the car runs on or how it was recharged.

Scenario: a busy afternoon. The new robot-taxi has a range of 300 km and a group calls it on their phone. The taxi turns up, the party climbs in, and off they go. They notice it’s a new model, but don’t really even care if it has a new charging port or runs on hydrogen, they’re too busy in a gaming contest on their phones. The new robot-taxi reaches its 150km range, and advises that it is now out of range and just pulling over so they can climb into the next cab, and they’ll be getting a 10% discount for the inconvenience. Last year’s model on the regular infrastructure takes them the rest of the way.

Robot-taxis mean everything is just so flexible, from houses not needing driveways or garages any longer to cars working together to get people where they want to go. Not only that, these cars are going to be working or recharging 24/7. They’ll burn out in a year or two, and so society will have a constant turnover of vehicles. In other words, we’ll always be hiring the latest thing! But if a company decides to change their charging plug, they can do it bit by bit maintaining coverage of the entire area as the new cars gradually replace the old. You won’t care. If anything goes wrong, another taxi will be along to serve you. Indeed, one city might have a few different companies running any number of different charging systems and it could still work. We’re just hiring that car for that trip. Chances are, some combination of robot-taxi and train will take you were you’re going.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 22:52:18

Tesla Model 3 production finally starts this week.
[A little over a year ago, Musk unveiled the Model 3], and said it would go into production in the second half of this year. The industry reaction was something along the lines of: "Yeah, right." It was understandable, given Musk's longtime habit of delaying his announced launches of groundbreaking products. Goldman Sachs downgraded Tesla's stock early this year because of its expectations that the Model 3 would launch behind schedule. Car and Driver bet that the Model 3 wouldn't roll off the assembly line before the fall of 2019.

It looks like they were all wrong. "Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday," Musk tweeted late yesterday evening. He followed with a few more details: "Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500. Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec."

Unless you've pre-ordered, don't get too excited: At 20,000 Model 3s per month, it will take till summer of 2019 to fill the car's 400,000 pre-orders. If you want one soon after that, consider pre-ordering now.
Elon Musk Starts Tesla Model 3 Production
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 23:59:16

asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV.


There is if the next town with a charging station is 300+ miles away :)

map showing where to find public charging stations in USA

Cheers!

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 01:33:12

Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV.


There is if the next town with a charging station is 300+ miles away :)

map showing where to find public charging stations in USA

Cheers!


And if every car is a robot car?
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https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 10:22:19

eclipse wrote:Agreed! The one thing that it could require, though, is the development of a very efficient battery recycling system that we don't quite have yet.


Well, folks seem to have figured out the lead/acid recycling pretty well, I'm betting they'll get the other kinds figured out as well. EVs aren't even close to climbing the market saturation curve yet, but they'll get there, and when they do the related technologies will catch up just fine. After all, there will be big $$ involved.

eclipse wrote: The reason being that these robot-taxis will probably work so hard and do so many miles a year that they only last a year or two, at most. That means we'll constantly be using the latest model robot-taxi, which is good, but that the world will also use more and more lithium because so many of those cars will only last a year.


Oh, I don't think lithium is the end of the line, as this plays out.

https://news.utexas.edu/2017/02/28/good ... technology
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 10:33:27

pstarr wrote:--range anxiety,


The reason my first EV also had a gas engine. Learned from that experience, a critical ingredient to making informed decisions, and completely opposite of folks who can't be bothered to do, and can only gibber and cut and paste wiki knowledge.

pstarr wrote:--11 miles/hour L2 charging vs 500 miles/10 minutes ICE refueling.


Good thing that folks like my wife don't need a fast charger, and there is plenty of fuel around for when folks want to road trip.

pstarr wrote:--1,344,000 charging stations necessary to replace all existing gas pumps.


Good thing there is no need for this either. Except for the road trippers, and they can use the copiously abundant liquid fuels.

pstarr wrote:Short answer:

    The current list price of a Bolt EV HV battery pack is $15,734.29 and the part number is 24285978.

And expensive batteries.[/quote]

They have gotten cheaper. And will continue to get cheaper. And I've never replaced one in any hybrid I've owned, and the wife hasn't even seen SOC degradation at 70K miles and 3+ years.

Of course, my information comes from personal experience with hybrids, NiMH and Li-Ion, etc etc, unlike those who continue to suckle at the test of fossil fuels for their transportation. I wonder how many hypocritical people like this might pretend to know anything about EVs?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 11:11:28

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:Short answer:

    The current list price of a Bolt EV HV battery pack is $15,734.29 and the part number is 24285978.

And expensive batteries.
The reason my first EV also had a gas engine. . . . I wonder how many hypocritical people like this might pretend to know anything about EVs?

Image
Adam, why continue posting? It must be sooo hard to be you :cry: I fear no one will ever appreciate your brilliance and honesty?
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And beauty of soul. But we are just fools :cry:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 11:42:17

eclipse wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV.


There is if the next town with a charging station is 300+ miles away :)

map showing where to find public charging stations in USA

Cheers!


And if every car is a robot car?


Robot cars are no more capable of driving 300+ miles in a 200+ mile EV then a human driver is.

Image
Gee Mr. Robot car...Are you sure you can go 300 miles even though your range is only 200 miles? I think maybe you should check your specs again!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 12:17:59

Plantagenet wrote:
eclipse wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV.


There is if the next town with a charging station is 300+ miles away :)

map showing where to find public charging stations in USA

Cheers!


And if every car is a robot car?


Robot cars are no more capable of driving 300+ miles in a 200+ mile EV then a human driver is.



1). I think he was referring to the earlier post that if you have all robot cars, when your robot car sees it is coming to the end of its range, it just calls another robot car to come pick you up. If it times things right, your delay and inconvenience is minimal. A 10% price reduction in your trip fee was proposed as compensation.

Of course, now you also have a stranded (depleted) robot car, so something else (a robot charging truck) has to drive out to the robot car and charge it enough to get to a charging station. SOMEBODY has to pay for that. So unless people are willing to take EXPENSIVE trips -- this sounds like a way for ride providers to lose a lot of money to me.

2). Over time, it appears that batteries will improve. Battery energy density is already improving, even for LI batteries. Example:

https://electrek.co/2016/11/02/tesla-pa ... elon-musk/

3). EV producers are already talking about 300 mile range EV's, with larger batteries. By the time robot cars are common (much less ubiquitous), 400 or even 500 mile batteries don't sound unreasonable. More charging stations will be built as EV's proliferate. At some point, surely there will be "enough" charging stations, as the technology improves. As long as customers are willing to pay enough to charge for them to make a "reasonable" profit, of course. Example:

https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/09/next- ... te-charge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 12:28:45

eclipse wrote: The reason being that these robot-taxis will probably work so hard and do so many miles a year that they only last a year or two, at most. That means we'll constantly be using the latest model robot-taxi, which is good, but that the world will also use more and more lithium because so many of those cars will only last a year.


I keep seeing this idea, and it keeps seeming wrong to me. Look, if you drive an EV 21 shifts, you still have to maintain it and charge it. In a city with traffic (the likely place to see full time demand for an EV for a long time yet), the average speed will be relatively low.

There are less than 8800 hours in a year. So let's very optimistically say a full time EV travels 8000 hours a year. (Given charging time, time waiting on real world customers to switch out, time for maintenance, etc).

So 8000 hours at 15 MPH average speed is 120,000 miles a year. Or 7000 hours at 20 MPH is 140,000 miles. (More down time for maint/charging/waiting and a higher average speed for all night driving is likely more realistic -- I think).

EV's will supposedly last a good 500,000 to 1,000,000 miles, since the engine's aren't being destroyed by ICE byproducts, and there is no need for a complex transmission. So even with high mileage estimates like this, you're talking something in the likely range of 4 to 8 years of EV life.

...

The math is simple, at least for city based robot cars. Do you think EV's will have a shorter usable lifetime range than the typical quality brand ICE today?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 13:48:03

pstarr wrote:Image


Does anyone here remember the days when the Prius drivers were all holier than thou about saving the world and whatnot, and peak oilers were making fun of them because, OBVIOUSLY, peak oil meant no fuel and they wouldn't get far on their meager batteries, and the fuel they saved wouldn't matter anyway? And even better, how Gm killed the electric car, and peak oil would prevent that coming back into action?

And like Mr Reserve and Mr Rockman and Mr Abundance and Mr JD, turns out, they knew more about what was going to happen than peakers did! And now we have personal transport peak oil solutions that are as close as the local dealerships, in multiple brands, we can buy used ones quite inexpensively, and now they are all over the place?

Except...peak oilers probably won't drive them!! :lol:

To much of a reminder of how wrong they got it? Buying their own peak oil transport solution comes too close to admitting how little they understood back then, and how much egg is on their faces now? :wink:

pstarr wrote:Adam, why continue posting?


For the exact opposite reason you do pstarr. You represent obsolete and discredited ideas, recycling peaker theory long after its expiration date, continuously using out of date information, claiming things that aren't true, pretending "peak" is different than "maximum", and perpetrating the dogma and herdthink of peak oil that delivered your kind to the fiasco that is the copious abundance we find ourselves in nowadays.

I apply what has been learned from not just your ludicrous claims of what peak means and when it happened, but those that came before you, saying the same things that you mindlessly recycle.I apply the history of the industry and insight into its functioning, basic principles of economics, to better illuminate the way forward. I accept EVs for what they both are, and can be.

pstarr wrote:It must be sooo hard to be you :cry: I fear no one will ever appreciate your brilliance and honesty?


What must be hard for me? Dealing with retreads of bad ideas, trolls and acolytes of peak doom, hiding under rocks in dark places on the internet because they know their ideas can't stand the light of day? Not hard at all really, you, like Shorty, don't have what it takes to show up at one of those professional conferences and open your mouths or present, so dealing with your ilk isn't hard at all. You are invisible in the real world.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 16:24:23

Outcast_Searcher wrote: if you have all robot cars, when your robot car sees it is coming to the end of its range, it just calls another robot car to come pick you up.....

Of course, now you also have a stranded (depleted) robot car, so something else (a robot charging truck) has to drive out to the robot car and charge it enough to get to a charging station. SOMEBODY has to pay for that. So unless people are willing to take EXPENSIVE trips -- this sounds like a way for ride providers to lose a lot of money to me.


Explain to me again why this is better then just driving the 300 miles in your own car?

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 17:33:05

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote: if you have all robot cars, when your robot car sees it is coming to the end of its range, it just calls another robot car to come pick you up.....

Of course, now you also have a stranded (depleted) robot car, so something else (a robot charging truck) has to drive out to the robot car and charge it enough to get to a charging station. SOMEBODY has to pay for that. So unless people are willing to take EXPENSIVE trips -- this sounds like a way for ride providers to lose a lot of money to me.


Explain to me again why this is better then just driving the 300 miles in your own car?


It isn't. Which is why some folks will continue to buy the parallel series hybrids. EV by day, coast to coast road tripper by night, sort of like Superman, except with wheels! I think the ultimate family combination will be one of the parallel hybrids for long range work, and something like a Bolt or Leaf for just running around town the rest of the time.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 18:34:50

AdamB wrote: I think the ultimate family combination will be one of the parallel hybrids for long range work, and something like a Bolt or Leaf for just running around town the rest of the time.


You could be right, especially as the United States still isn't putting anywhere near enough money into mass transit, including trams and light rail for travel within cities and towns, and intercity high speed rail connections for longer travel.

Cheers!

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All New Volvos Will Have All-Electric Motors By 2019!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 02:53:05

https://www.dsf.my/2017/07/all-new-volv ... s-by-2019/
All New Volvos Will Have All-Electric Motors By 2019!

Volvo Cars, the premium car maker, has announced that every Volvo it launches from 2019 will have an electric motor, marking the historic end of cars that only have an internal combustion engine (ICE) and placing electrification at the core of its future business.

The announcement represents one of the most significant moves by any car maker to embrace electrification and highlights how over a century after the invention of the internal combustion engine electrification is paving the way for a new chapter in automotive history.


With hybrids becoming common, it's only a matter of time before some cities ban ICE vehicles from their centres.
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