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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 18:28:06

This has already been addressed, Mr. Starr. You are trolling again by not listening.

First, if you live in an apartment, Tesla encourages you to use superchargers as your primary means of charging. For regular commutes that will not require charging every day. It's not that bad. In addition, they're starting to install chargers in parking structures and there are also destination charges here and there to charge on the go.

Second, even if the above is insufficient, said dwellers can rely on robo-taxis in the future and not even need to buy a car. I mean, we're talking the future here, so let's look at how things could change, like how Lutz is now predicting.

As far as charge times, the Supercharger network is going to be upgraded to even faster charges. The CCS network that VW is going to build will also be faster than ever. Will it be as fast as gas charging? No, but it will be fast enough (except for FUDsters).

Also, whether they will be able to or not, Tesla wants to power all its superchargers with its own solar panels. This will probably require some sort of electron arbitrage rather than trying to generate all power directly on-premises, but if they get that far then the overhead to them is ameliorated. This can, of course, be duplicated by other charging networks. This is in addition to their updated pricing scheme as they back away from all-you-can-eat.

If that's not enough, Tesla has been having recent talks with the major automakers about interoperability with non-Tesla cars. So it could very well be a case of all charging networks ultimately being compatible (even though they'd require physical adapters).

In addition to all this, it will only require a relatively small portion of ICE cars to be displaced to offset post-peak oil depletion, and that portion can grow lock-step with depletion to prevent the Mad Max future you so desperately desire to befall suburbanites. If even THAT is not enough, then if all employees who could telecommute do so, it would reduce oil consumption enough to compensate. We have a lot of fat that can be cut without threatening BAU as we know it.

So sorry that your doomer narrative is threatened, but tough cookies.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 19:04:13

asg70 wrote:This has already been addressed, Mr. Starr. You are trolling again by not listening.

So you define trolling as no listening to you? That's narcissistic. I have given you some hard numbers, so you need to address that without snark or insults. Tony Seba and Hyperloopy robotaxi distractions is not hard evidence of a useful transition to EV
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 20:39:48

shortonoil wrote:jawagord said page 21
The probablity of the US grid servicing anything more than a very small number of EVs is almost zero. There also exists another of those "in your face problems" that no one is talking about. That will come from the impact of depletion on lithium production. The majority of low cost lithium now orginates from South American brine wells. Once those sources have been exhausted the cost of lithium production will begin to increase exponentially.

More nonsense from the ETP purveyor of doom. There's lots of lithium in various countries.

Chile, China, Argentina, and Australia all have huge amounts.

But let's pretend it's doom. Let's pretend the entire world, all the investors, except YOU can't assess the supply/demand situation for lithium, if it can spread FUD about doom.

Let's also pretend no one is working on alternate battery chemistries (and making progress), so that if Lithium becomes "too expensive", there won't be alternatives.

http://www.mining.com/web/lithium-supply-demand-story/

It's like you're a 5th grader who can't even be bothered to try to make a remotely credible case.

So what now? More ad-homs?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 21:19:03

pstarr wrote:I have given you some hard numbers, so you need to address that without snark or insults.


I did. You continue to go down the perfect is the enemy of good angle, which is really just a form of strawmanning. I don't really give a rat's ass if ICE cars switch over 100%. All I'm saying is enough will to prevent your enduring dreams of suburban apocalypse.

pstarr wrote: Tony Seba and Hyperloopy robotaxi distractions


Look, if in other threads we can talk about what may happen in the next few decades, then it's perfectly valid to project out a little farther here. Just because we don't yet have millions of EVs doesn't mean it won't happen. That you won't concede the point until Musk rams an EV up your ass does not mean it's unlikely. All the pieces are moving into place.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 21:29:22

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote: Tony Seba and Hyperloopy robotaxi distractions

That you won't concede the point until Musk rams an EV up your ass does not mean it's unlikely.

Since he's so put off by Musk and Tesla, we should probably concede that it could well be GM, VW, BMW, Ford, etc. who does the ramming. But he'll still be in denial even as he wonders why he has a giant pain in his backside.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 21:33:24

Outcast_Searcher wrote:he'll still be in denial even as he wonders why he has a giant pain in his backside.


At least lithium is non-toxic...and the electric shock will do him good.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 22:54:59

pstarr wrote:
asg70 wrote:This has already been addressed, Mr. Starr. You are trolling again by not listening.

So you define trolling as no listening to you? That's narcissistic. I have given you some hard numbers, so you need to address that without snark or insults. Tony Seba and Hyperloopy robotaxi distractions is not hard evidence of a useful transition to EV

Any numbers yet?
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Apparently not. :cry:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 02:34:34

Self Driving shuttle crashes in Las Vegas

self-driving-shuttle-crashes-in-las-vegas-hours-after-launch

The AI driving the shuttle probably got distracted by some pretty girls on the sidewalk.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Revi » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 08:40:55

I don't think there is a solution to the problem we're facing that allows us to drive around in 6000 pound steel boxes with only one person in them. Eventually people will have to become more efficient, and the personal car will be used just to get you to your final destination. Like station wagons used to be. There's no better way to get people around than a train, but we seem to have forgotten that. We have owned a small electric vehicle for over 12 years now, and use it almost every day in the snow free months. It uses a tiny fraction of the energy of a regular car, and can get you around about a 15 mile radius. Image
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Cog » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 08:53:39

Plantagenet wrote:Self Driving shuttle crashes in Las Vegas

self-driving-shuttle-crashes-in-las-vegas-hours-after-launch

The AI driving the shuttle probably got distracted by some pretty girls on the sidewalk.


Actually a truck driven by a human backed into it. The shuttle stopped where it was supposed to.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby GHung » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 08:59:17

Plantagenet wrote:Self Driving shuttle crashes in Las Vegas

self-driving-shuttle-crashes-in-las-vegas-hours-after-launch

The AI driving the shuttle probably got distracted by some pretty girls on the sidewalk.....


.... or Plant shouldn't be linking to articles from Fox who didn't report the full facts. The self-driving shuttle stopped but the human-driven tuck ran into it. Seems the shuttle did exactly what it was designed to do, and the truck driver was cited:

.... When the service debuted in the city on Wednesday, one of the driverless vehicles was involved in a collision with a delivery truck, the Las Vegas government said in a statement.

During the incident in downtown Las Vegas, the bus automatically stopped to try avoid an accident after its sensors detected the truck, the city said.

"Unfortunately, the delivery truck did not stop and grazed the front fender of the shuttle," it said. "Had the truck had the same sensing equipment that the shuttle has, the accident would have been avoided.....

The truck driver was cited by authorities over the accident, the city said. "

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/09/technol ... -stack-dom


Seems CNN got the story straight, Planty (and I got the same FULL account from other sources). Why would Fox avoid this critical detail? Then Fox goes on to say:

The bus is currently free, according to KSNC. The AAA, which is sponsoring the shuttle, will donate $1 to the Las Vegas Victims Fund for each rider that gets aboard the bus – starting with a $100,000 check.

The self-driving shuttle was reportedly scheduled to drive through downtown Las Vegas during the next year. It remains unclear whether the shuttle will continue operating after its collision.


The city made it very clear that it plans to put this shuttle back in service and continue the program. Why would Fox not state that? Indeed, if Fox cared to get the story right:

....City spokesman Jace Radke says the shuttle stopped when it sensed the truck was approaching, but the truck didn't stop.

Ocampo-Gomez says one of the semi-truck's tires tapped the front bumper of the bus. The shuttle doesn't have any dents.

Radke says the shuttle took two more loops after the crash.

http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/busin ... rylink=cpy
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 09:30:33

pstarr wrote:Any numbers yet?


WTF are you looking for?

"Success" in the context of a peakoil website for EVs is not if they completely replace ICE vehicles, it's whether they displace gasoline consumption to the point where they blunt peak-oil doom.

Tony Seba is overly optimistic, yes, but rendering him in caricature doesn't invalidate the overall trajectory we're likely to go on.

Apartment and multi-family households excepted, there are still hundreds of millions of people who live in households who CAN charge at home, enough that if only they bought EVs it would cut oil consumption down by a wide margin and effectively kick the can of consequences of oil depletion out far enough ahead to not even be relevant anymore, in which case AGW would become the top existential threat for humanity.

That, of course, is not what you want to hear, and so you keep trying to debunk an idea that I'm not even harping on, that EVs have to 100% replace the ICE fleet.

So it is, again, a strawman. You are misrepresenting the claims in order to score points. THAT is why you deserve animated GIFs.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 13:03:24

Gungie described the crash between the AI self driving shuttle bus and the the truck in Las Vegas in a bit more detail, but still left out the most important point----the truck WAS BACKING UP.

las-vegas-self-driving-shuttle-bus-crash

The shuttle came up on a truck that was backing up. The shuttle got close and then stopped. The truck continued to slowly back up and eventually inched into the front of the bus.

IMHO this shows a problem with this particular self-driving program. Yes, the truck driver misjudged the situation and thought he had room to back his big rig out.

But--- If the bus had A human driver he would've honked his horn to let the truck driver know he was getting too close. A human driver might even have backed up his bus to give the truck room to back out. But the shuttle bus didn't honk or back up to give the truck room---it just sat there like a dumb brick as the truck inched into it.

Image
a human driver would've backed up or honked to let the truck know it was getting too close---the AI was too dumb

Cheers!

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby GHung » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 13:21:32

Plantagenet wrote:Gungie described the crash between the AI self driving shuttle bus and the the truck in Las Vegas in a bit more detail, but still left out the most important point----the truck WAS BACKING UP.

las-vegas-self-driving-shuttle-bus-crash

The shuttle came up on a truck that was backing up. The shuttle got close and then stopped. The truck continued to slowly back up and eventually inched into the front of the bus.

IMHO this shows a problem with this particular self-driving program. Yes, the truck driver misjudged the situation and thought he had room to back his big rig out.

But--- If the bus had A human driver he would've honked his horn to let the truck driver know he was getting too close. A human driver might even have backed up his bus to give the truck room to back out. But the shuttle bus didn't honk or back up to give the truck room---it just sat there like a dumb brick as the truck inched into it.

Image
a human driver would've backed up or honked to let the truck know it was getting too close---the AI was too dumb

Cheers!


Yes. And you can be pretty sure they will incorporate this "learning experience" into the AI's next firmware update. That is the point of these trials.

On the other hand, I've seen a human driver just sit there and watch someone back into them at Walmart. Once the AI system has these things incorporated into their systems, it's there for good, every time.

BTW: My first major was 'CS-Expert Systems", now generally referred to as "AI".
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 13:40:07

"BTW: My first major was 'CS-Expert Systems", now generally referred to as "AI"."

As an AI guy you would recognize the difference between iphone "facial recognition" and true AI. As someone who studied AI in its infancy decades ago I appreciate the chasm between what Apple has accomplished and what needs to be implemented to create a real autonomous vehicle.

No computer hardware or program known today that can pick out a face in a crowd. How does LIDAR recognize a little kid running out into the street? It'll have to slam the brakes for a basketball, garbage bag or piece of paper that blows into the street. There's a traffic jam. LIDAR can not handle pot holes. Or rain, snow, or even a speck of dirt on a sensor. The lawyers and auto-company insurance would turn any possible incident into another traffic jam.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby GHung » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 14:09:29

pstarr wrote:"BTW: My first major was 'CS-Expert Systems", now generally referred to as "AI"."

As an AI guy you would recognize the difference between iphone "facial recognition" and true AI. As someone who studied AI in its infancy decades ago I appreciate the chasm between what Apple has accomplished and what needs to be implemented to create a real autonomous vehicle.

No computer hardware or program known today that can pick out a face in a crowd. How does LIDAR recognize a little kid running out into the street? It'll have to slam the brakes for a basketball, garbage bag or piece of paper that blows into the street. There's a traffic jam. LIDAR can not handle pot holes. Or rain, snow, or even a speck of dirt on a sensor. The lawyers and auto-company insurance would turn any possible incident into another traffic jam.


Which is why I only see "autonomous" vehicles as being viable in the near future for known repetitive routes. The reason it was called "expert systems" as opposed to "artificial intelligence" is because it was understood that we don't even have a full idea of what "intelligence" really is. My first few quarters involved a lot of psychology, anatomy, and things as discussed in books like "Society Of Mind" (Minsky).

" It'll have to slam the brakes for a basketball, garbage bag or piece of paper that blows into the street."

Humans do that already. The ones that don't run kids and dogs over because they are busy texting. Maybe these driverless buses need bumper stickers:
I BRAKE FOR EVERYTHING!.

Anyway, I'm a driver. Drove professionally for a while and have over 40 years absolutely incident free, don't care much for the whole concept, and doubt we'll have the economy or resources for long to implement these strategies on any scale that matters. Too many people running out of planet to exploit.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 14:24:34

"Which is why I only see "autonomous" vehicles as being viable in the near future for known repetitive routes. "

Yes and why Google developed and loaded into each robocar, 2000 miles of detailed 3D road maps. (I believe it was around Mountain View test area). The map must include every intersection, stop sign, traffic light and obstacle. Any change to the geography (whether through malfunction, road work, accident or other municipal changes) would have to be downloaded to every vehicle IN REAL TIME. All the time.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 14:51:10

GHung wrote:I BRAKE FOR EVERYTHING!.

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AI . . . we brake EVERYTHING lol
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 15:23:45

pstarr wrote:"Which is why I only see "autonomous" vehicles as being viable in the near future for known repetitive routes. "

Yes and why Google developed and loaded into each robocar, 2000 miles of detailed 3D road maps. (I believe it was around Mountain View test area). The map must include every intersection, stop sign, traffic light and obstacle. Any change to the geography (whether through malfunction, road work, accident or other municipal changes) would have to be downloaded to every vehicle IN REAL TIME. All the time.

Fleets of AI/EVs will all be in constant contact with a central mega computer and will share information about everything from traffic signal settings to pot holes to perhaps even pedestrians walking with their nose in their phone and their head up their A$$. After said pedestrian passes a couple of AI vehicles they will have plotted his course and speed and following vehicles will be looking for him. For that matter as facial recognition improves a fleet of AI vehicles could be constantly on the lookout for a list of known trouble makers and report back all sightings to big brother.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 15:28:58

Big Brother is a meany, but his Little Brother (kid's into slow-pitch softball) is such a dear. Wouldn't let anything happen to his mommy's Tesla.
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