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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 18:47:33

StarvingLion wrote:How can Bankrupt Scamerica power EV's when its shutting down all its coal plants and exporting Ponzi Gas because it is xxxxing broke and has to pay bills?


Well, it isn't a matter of HOW, the wife gets a combination of solar from PVs, natural gas, a little coal, a little nuke, and it all comes FREE from her place of work.

Maybe you distorted world view is because you work somewhere that doesn't hand out free fuel for EVs?

Then again, you said money was worthless like 15 months ago and since then I've handed wads of paper to folks who keep handing me real stuff in exchange for it!

Keep up that tilting at windmills Starving, someone has to represent the normal peak oil view from a decade ago, no matter how silly it looks! We all need to remember what bats in the belfry looks like, lest we repeat all of it as well!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 19:49:11

vtsnowedin wrote:
Cog wrote:China and India are going to impose carbon taxes on themselves to put themselves at a competitive disadvantage? I'll have a Coke and wait to see that event happen.

I'll have a glass of Chardonnay and keep the rest of the bottle handy.


There comes a time where the frog realizes it's boiling in the pot and a deathbed conversion occurs.

I don't know when that's going to happen but there are signs that even the developing world is already weighing the pros and cons of growth vs. pollution.

It looks contradictory right now, especially in China, because there is a kitchen-sink approach going on. There is lots of fossil fuel use simultaneously with green tech, but that is a sign that a transition is already starting.

Being permanently locked in cynical mode blinds you to these datapoints.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby baha » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 08:06:22

I see both sides of this issue. On one hand I support EVs, solar, and all that stuff. But on the other I know the naysayers are also right.

I crunched a few more numbers to show you the scale of the problem.

Problem: Governments around the world think legislation can force EV adoption...They want to call this the solution...No one can think deeply enough to take a systems approach, except maybe China.

Last year cars in the US traveled 3.22 trillion miles. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/ ... -last-year
If you assume an EV efficiency of 4 miles/kWhr you get a total of 805 billion kWhrs needed to continue our wasteful ways with EVs.

Total electricity production in the US in 2016 was 4.1 trillion kWhrs. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... ted_states
So we need to increase grid output by 20% to support an EV society. This is doable by running baseload plants at higher output all night while the EVs charge...

65% of the grid is FFed. I believe we are on the undulating plateau. Even if there are 10 years left of adequate supply, there isn't going to be much expansion. Renewables and Nuclear can expand way past 35% and still not begin to address the problem.

There will be a power down. EVs don't solve this problem unless you can make the power you need yourself. The answer is not how you use the energy but how you produce it cleanly and how much you can produce.

The systemic problem is energy not cars. There are going to be a lot of pissed off EV owners if the grid goes down :oops:

Maybe the legislation should address production...VW can produce all the EVs they want as long as they also produce the clean energy needed to run them and install the charger network to deliver the power to their users for free. Like Tesla, it's all part of the purchase price. Throw in contractors, sub-contractors, fiat money, and risky loans and it could work :)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 08:53:24

So how is the Model 3 production working out? Got any cars not made by hand yet?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 09:49:48

Cog wrote:So how is the Model 3 production working out? Got any cars not made by hand yet?


Elon is great at building sexy cars as long as he doesn't have to build them all at once! Spent yesterday at a Tesla dealership, the wife and I love the Tesla X. I thought I would be partial to the S model, but the roof on that X is something else, Tesla does cars sort of like Ducati did sportbikes, until their mojo got stolen by the Japanese a decade or so back.

But ultimately there is way too much status system wrapped up in the brand, and he is going to give that away with the model 3. The big boys who know better how to build cars will make them dime a dozen, and Tesla might end up only being left with the brand, while every other citizen in America is either happy with that Chevy in the garage or to purchase transport as a service.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 10:22:02

baha wrote:I see both sides of this issue. On one hand I support EVs, solar, and all that stuff. But on the other I know the naysayers are also right.

I crunched a few more numbers to show you the scale of the problem.

P......
.....
So we need to increase grid output by 20% to support an EV society. This is doable by running baseload plants at higher output all night while the EVs charge...
Even if they can stand running wide open each and every night, which I doubt, running them wide open will use 20% more fuel total for the year. Hydo is fully utilized so you have to rely on the coal and Natural gas plants for all of the increase as your probably not going to build any new nuclear plants.Presently we are burning 66 million tons of coal a month to generate electricity in the USA.
65% of the grid is FFed. I believe we are on the undulating plateau. Even if there are 10 years left of adequate supply, there isn't going to be much expansion. Renewables and Nuclear can expand way past 35% and still not begin to address the problem.

Separate the production and the grid distribution parts of the problem. The grid is about 100 years old and you would expect 50 percent of it to need work at anyone time so being at 65% is a problem but not an insurmountable one. It is just work that needs doing and is being done but not at a sufficient rate at present. On the production side we have aging nuclear plants that need to be decommissioned and aging coal fired plants we want to stop using for pollution reasons. Building enough new gas fired plants to replace these is a daunting task and expanding beyond that highly unlikely.
There will be a power down. EVs don't solve this problem unless you can make the power you need yourself. The answer is not how you use the energy but how you produce it cleanly and how much you can produce.
Agreed.
The systemic problem is energy not cars. There are going to be a lot of pissed off EV owners if the grid goes down :oops:

Maybe the legislation should address production...VW can produce all the EVs they want as long as they also produce the clean energy needed to run them and install the charger network to deliver the power to their users for free. Like Tesla, it's all part of the purchase price. Throw in contractors, sub-contractors, fiat money, and risky loans and it could work :)

I don't know about VW but perhaps Tesla will install enough solar panels and a power wall with each EV to balance the cars consumption.
Still car pooling and trip avoidance will do more good.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby jawagord » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 10:50:51

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has a great chart summarizing US energy use, production, rejection. Essentially out of 97 quads of energy produced each year 31 quads of energy are useful, the rest is rejected energy. For transportation almost 6 quads of energy are used, supplied almost entirely from petroleum. Where/how would we get the electrical energy to replaced the 6 quads of transportation power with EV's?

EV's are about 60% efficient according to US Gov, so 6 quads of energy used require 60/.6 = 10 quads of electricity. Now we can see some of the issues with converting to EV's:
1. Personal transportation uses about 60% of vehicle fuel so 6 quads of electrical energy would be required to power all personal vehicles. Residential power supply is currently about 5 quads, for overnight charging the residential supply would need to increase to 11 quads, this would be a 120% increase of the current capacity, which would require wholesale replacement of electrical distribution systems, going to be very costly and take a very long time to implement. Similar problem to convert the commercial fleet to EV.
2. Power generation of 10 quads of electricity requires 30 quads of input with current mix of power generation (37.5/12.6). 30 quads requires an 80% increase in generation supply, it's taken the US 60-70 years to build up its current generating capacity how long will it take to increase it by 80% plus replace aging equipment? Again very costly and a long time to implement.

Reality is EV adoption will run into a power supply and distribution wall long before it can reach significant market share and that wall will drive up the cost of power significantly for everyone.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/ass ... States.png
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 13:19:51

jawagord wrote:Reality is EV adoption will run into a power supply and distribution wall long before it can reach significant market share and that wall will drive up the cost of power significantly for everyone.


Which is why Tesla is in both the car and solar business. That's vertical integration for ya.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 14:46:22

jawagord wrote:Reality is EV adoption will run into a power supply and distribution wall long before it can reach significant market share and that wall will drive up the cost of power significantly for everyone.



You appear to have not accounted for the power of a disruptive technology in your calculations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 15:13:02

AdamB wrote:
jawagord wrote:Reality is EV adoption will run into a power supply and distribution wall long before it can reach significant market share and that wall will drive up the cost of power significantly for everyone.



You appear to have not accounted for the power of a disruptive technology in your calculations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

Tony Seba's first and only autonomous-vehicle ride will be to the looney bin. There he will play with blocks all day long, and make whooshing! sounds. He wants to go vrooom! but he can't as he will be driving imaginary Teslas. And Tesla's are sooo quiet. Because they hardly exist.

The blocks are painted Grey like tiny Tesla autos. So Little Tony Seba will be content making whooshing! noises on the floor. To avoid imaginary pot holes.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 15:22:18

pstarr wrote:
AdamB wrote:
jawagord wrote:Reality is EV adoption will run into a power supply and distribution wall long before it can reach significant market share and that wall will drive up the cost of power significantly for everyone.



You appear to have not accounted for the power of a disruptive technology in your calculations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

Tony Seba's first and only autonomous-vehicle ride will be to the looney bin.


I hope not. I know people who have been driven autonomously from San Francisco to LA during the more experimental phase of this technology. It worked well, and didn't require touching any controls...door to door. You really need to get out more, these things are happening all around folks who aren't hiding in the backwoods somewhere, scared of their own shadow.

pstarr wrote:The blocks are painted Grey like tiny Tesla autos. So Little Tony Seba will be content making whooshing noises on the floor. To avoid imaginary pot holes.


Good to know that you can be added to the list of posters who can't find a single hole in his logic. But then really, want to bet his degrees weren't acquired at The Stoner Instructional Complex?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 15:30:52

"I know people who have been driven autonomously from San Francisco to LA during the more experimental phase of this technology. It worked well, and didn't require touching any controls...door to door."

I know you know them :) They are your friends. Good friends! Happy Friends [smilie=5umbrella.gif]
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 15:56:26

pstarr wrote:I know you know them :) They are your friends. Good friends! Happy Friends [smilie=5umbrella.gif]


Got a point or do you just want to be flagged?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 16:44:53

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:I know you know them :) They are your friends. Good friends! Happy Friends [smilie=5umbrella.gif]


Got a point or do you just want to be flagged?

How about this: no hands-free autonomous vehicle ever drove from San Francisco to Los Angeles. That makes your little friend a liar. Is that better for you? Is it better that I out and out call Adam a liar. Or am I allowed to have a little fun with him? Is that your f#cking call?

Listen Asgy, when you or your friends make outrageous ignorant and bullying off-topic trolls, I am well within my rights to answer them in kind. If I choose to humor the little bugger, that is my right. I will not have you acting as a f@cking moderator to my posts.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 18:53:16

pstarr wrote:How about this: no hands-free autonomous vehicle ever drove from San Francisco to Los Angeles


If you want to challenge his claim do so. Stop speaking in tongues. I mean, your sarcasm is so incredibly obfuscated that it's not even decipherable anymore.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 14:17:21

Look at the Massive Fraud, people:

https://t.co/EYyl0PaoL0

Research into the lifecycle of electric vehicles is a wake-up call for an industry geared up to promote ‘zero emission cars’

If you switch from oil to cobalt and lithium, you have not addressed any problem, you have just switched your problem.

Summarising, EVs aren’t zero emission: cost of battery manufacture - if serious about CO2, reduce EV size & weight & decarbonise generation
Last edited by StarvingLion on Wed 08 Nov 2017, 14:58:20, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 14:43:30

StarvingLion wrote:Look at the Massive Fraud, people:

https://www.ft.com/content/a22ff86e-ba3 ... 9c83ffa852

Research into the lifecycle of electric vehicles is a wake-up call for an industry geared up to promote ‘zero emission cars’

If you switch from oil to cobalt and lithium, you have not addressed any problem, you have just switched your problem.

SL If you are going to link to a pay walled publication why don't you quote, copy, and past the best paragraph or two so we who don't subscribe to that particular publication might understand what you are talking about. You can't expect every member here to subscribe to the same set of publications as there are so many of them and the members have a wide range of interests and tastes.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 15:34:08

StarvingLion wrote:Look at the Massive Fraud, people:

https://t.co/EYyl0PaoL0

Research into the lifecycle of electric vehicles is a wake-up call for an industry geared up to promote ‘zero emission cars’

If you switch from oil to cobalt and lithium, you have not addressed any problem, you have just switched your problem.

Summarising, EVs aren’t zero emission: cost of battery manufacture - if serious about CO2, reduce EV size & weight & decarbonise generation


I read and understand it, unlike the EV posers (none actually own an EV). They (the posers and trolls) have the same problem with the study conclusions they have with peak oil. Net-energy analysis. So the humble little 1.2 L 3-cylinder Mitsubishi Mirage is better than the energy-hogging EV Show Car (the Tesla Model S P100D). Who knew, right?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 16:33:12

jawagord said page 21

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has a great chart summarizing US energy use, production, rejection. Essentially out of 97 quads of energy produced .....


The probablity of the US grid servicing anything more than a very small number of EVs is almost zero. There also exists another of those "in your face problems" that no one is talking about. That will come from the impact of depletion on lithium production. The majority of low cost lithium now orginates from South American brine wells. Once those sources have been exhausted the cost of lithium production will begin to increase exponentially.

http://www.jayhanson.org/MoreCurves.html

By the time that even a few million vehicles have come into service the cost of the batteries would make electrics prohibitive.

The wealth of oil provided by nature only came once; and we really blew it! Here we sit 158 years later, pumping the dredges out of the bottom of the barrel, and trying to pretend that we will casually move on to electric vehicles. The theory that the monkeys climbed down out of the trees is definitely wrong, the evidence is overwhelming that they fell out!

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 17:49:49

Lots of other reasons why EV are non-starting.

--100 million Americans live in multi-family homes and have no opportunity to self-charge their cars. The cars are either parked on the street or (at best, and rarely) inside basement garages. The cost to run charging lines (under streets, through concrete foundations setc.) to these sites would be in the $hundreds of $billions. No money for that.

--While the cost to charge a single EV may be low . . . A Charge Could Cost Half the Price of Gas . . . the effort, cost in infrastructure to do so is incredibly pricey. Once the electricity has been developed, the chargers themselves will be purchased. (from the same article)
The reason Tesla had offered supercharging to its Model X and Model S customers for free is straightforward: the service would be price-prohibitive otherwise. To generate a reasonable return on investment today, it would have to charge customers roughly $801 to charge a battery fully. Why so expensive? Supercharger utilization rates are low, just 5% as of the third quarter of 2016, while startup costs are high, at roughly $270,000 per station.2 Tesla has spent more than $170 million3 to build out this infrastructure.

There are over 1 million gasoline/diesel pumps in the USA, that will fill up a car <10 minutes. A SOA and analogous EV infrastructure would require 3 million Level-3 Superchargers (80 percent charge in about 30 minutes) at a cost of $810 billion
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