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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby cephalotus » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 12:59:54

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Yes, there's two issues to replacing a given vehicle class that runs on fossil fuels today.

1). Can it do the same work at the same intensity over X hours?


You need to think out of the box.

Why do we need or want big tractors with a guy sitting on the doing stupid and boring work for hours after hours?

Instead I see 5- 10 small robots working slowly but continuously for 16 hours per day during daylight nonstop, not degrading/compressing the soil, treating almost every plant individually, using mechanical force instead of herbicides and those will simply recharge from solar PV arrays on top of them. Ideal systems for organic farming.

Autonomous farm robots will be a million times easier to make than autonomous cars in public traffic.

They will be cheaper, too.

You only need a heavy vehicle to transport the harvest, but the robots can bring them to one point.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 13:08:26

"...this will not be the end of this technology path."

True. And in a few years the Rockman's daughter might be helping farmers get away from fossil fuels. Next year she'll begin her engineering degree at Texas A&M. Being a country girl she's already learning towards the school's Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, one of the largest in North America. It ranks among the best in the nation. And already with an eye towards solar: a couple of Christmases ago daddy gave her a kid's starter solar energy kit. Just good enough to charge her cell phone but you have to start somewhere.

And imagine: such education funded by income from the petroleum industry. LOL.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 13:18:33

cephalotus wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:...
Yes I'd say that is the state of the art and shows you that real engineers are studying the problem. Four hours of work then a three hour charge time is unacceptable not only because it is just 57 percent of available day light but....


This technology is already much better than horses or hordes of working slaves, which is the peak oil fetish dream of the doomers like pstarr.

If you have two batteries to swap you can work indefinitely.

And this will not be the end of this technology path. If 4 hours operation is possible today we will see 8 hours in the future...

The technology is fine just not competitive at current fuel oil prices. When oil prices rise to a level that makes the cost to plant an acre with electricity cheaper then doing it with diesel power the diesel powered tractors will become parked barn yard ornaments. Also farmers will adapt to new realities. For years one big tractor has been faster and cheaper then two smaller ones especially because it removed the need for the second driver. Perhaps in an electric powered future two smaller tractors will be the cheapest route with the one driver switching between tractors when charging time happens for the one he started the day with.
During the transition of course there will be a mix of diesel and electric and fuel price variations will cause uncertainty and delay total fleet changeover.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 13:28:40

cephalotus wrote:.....

Instead I see 5- 10 small robots working slowly but continuously for 16 hours per day during daylight nonstop, not degrading/compressing the soil, treating almost every plant individually, using mechanical force instead of herbicides and those will simply recharge from solar PV arrays on top of them. Ideal systems for organic farming.

Autonomous farm robots will be a million times easier to make than autonomous cars in public traffic.

They will be cheaper, too.

You only need a heavy vehicle to transport the harvest, but the robots can bring them to one point.

Well for one thing during spring and fall planting and harvesting seasons you only have twelve hours a day of sunlight. Also the ideal planting window for any given crop on any given ground is just a few days long so farmers need to plant hundreds of acres each day when the time is right. Harvesting is also a short time window operation that progresses from south to north through the wheat and corn belts. This is especially true of winter wheat which uses a great many custom combines that go from farm to farm progressing north as the crop ripens. No bunch of R2-D2s are going to cut and thrash an acre of grain in the few minutes it takes a JD combine to do it today.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 13:47:32

vt - As far as cutting manpower just yesterday at lunch with my daughter discussed the latest experiments with autonomous tractors. Eventually picture a farmer sitting in his pick up monitoring with his lap top his 4 autonomous tractors plowing or planting his 3,000 acres. Solve the battery problem maybe running them 24 hrs a day will be possible and thus splitting the cost with a neighbor. And then sitting on his front porch sipping coffee checking his fields for pest or disease with his drone in a fraction of the time it took to "walk the rows".

Just a fantasy now. But not that long ago so was taking a phone call from Germany while in you blind in south Texas. Actually did that a few years ago while hunting spring turkey. Not always that great to be connected to the rest of the world all the f*cking time. LOL.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby tita » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 14:40:12

There is a lot of automation now in the farms today. I'm not exactly sure that farmers really want to sit all day behind a screen... It's a little depressing to think that managing a farm would be like playing "Farm Simulator 17".
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby GHung » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 14:48:20

tita wrote:There is a lot of automation now in the farms today. I'm not exactly sure that farmers really want to sit all day behind a screen... It's a little depressing to think that managing a farm would be like playing "Farm Simulator 17".


Large scale farming these days is basically an input/output system. Whatever improves the farmer's bottom line is generally ok with them.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 14:57:44

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - As far as cutting manpower just yesterday at lunch with my daughter discussed the latest experiments with autonomous tractors. Eventually picture a farmer sitting in his pick up monitoring with his lap top his 4 autonomous tractors plowing or planting his 3,000 acres. Solve the battery problem maybe running them 24 hrs a day will be possible and thus splitting the cost with a neighbor. And then sitting on his front porch sipping coffee checking his fields for pest or disease with his drone in a fraction of the time it took to "walk the rows".

Just a fantasy now. But not that long ago so was taking a phone call from Germany while in you blind in south Texas. Actually did that a few years ago while hunting spring turkey. Not always that great to be connected to the rest of the world all the f*cking time. LOL.

Some of that is already here for state of the art operations except that you still need an operator in the cab for when things go wrong like picking up a rock or run into a mud hole etc. Having an autonomous robot that can stop and clear a jam or replace a broken cutting knife section or have the judgement to go around a mud hole and leave that area for a dryer day is a ways off yet. Having another robot that is a good heavy equipment and diesel mechanic in the shop with the ability to go retrieve a broken down machine is further out yet. Time to sip coffee? Not very likely.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 15:05:53

cephalotus wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Yes, there's two issues to replacing a given vehicle class that runs on fossil fuels today.

1). Can it do the same work at the same intensity over X hours?


You need to think out of the box.

Why do we need or want big tractors with a guy sitting on the doing stupid and boring work for hours after hours?

Instead I see 5- 10 small robots working slowly but continuously for 16 hours per day during daylight nonstop, not degrading/compressing the soil, treating almost every plant individually, using mechanical force instead of herbicides and those will simply recharge from solar PV arrays on top of them. Ideal systems for organic farming.

Autonomous farm robots will be a million times easier to make than autonomous cars in public traffic.

They will be cheaper, too.

You only need a heavy vehicle to transport the harvest, but the robots can bring them to one point.

Fine. In say 10 to 25 years when herds of such robots are more economic than a single large tractor as is used today, and all the technology/problems are worked out that will be utilized. I'm talking about what can be done economically in the next few years or so, with the only constraint being on the battery/EV technology, and not relying on promises or hopes or dreams of what autonomy might supposedly yield in future decades.

So it's about context.

Why not just say have nanobots assemble your food in your kitchen, and eliminate the farms and all the transport altogether? After all, that's what happens in some far future science fiction novels.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby cephalotus » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 15:13:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Why not just say have nanobots assemble your food in your kitchen, and eliminate the farms and all the transport altogether? After all, that's what happens in some far future science fiction novels.


So how are experiments with nanobots assembling food from thin air are going so far?

On the other hand:

Image

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/arti ... icks-weeds

Not the real thing yet, but not entirely fiction either. Think about all that hype about the Tesla "autopilot". This thing already killed poeple and they still hype it. It's much easier to build an autonomous farm robot than building a car that knows to stop if a ball rolls on the tarmac between cars, because I child could run after it...
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby cephalotus » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 15:17:43

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Fine. In say 10 to 25 years when herds of such robots are more economic than a single large tractor as is used today, and all the technology/problems are worked out that will be utilized. I'm talking about what can be done economically in the next few years or so, with the only constraint being on the battery/EV technology, and not relying on promises or hopes or dreams of what autonomy might supposedly yield in future decades...


Maybe nothing. Energy is cheap. Energy for a farm tractor is ultra cheap compared to the benefits of such a machine. Millions and millions of passenger cars will stop running if gasoline hits a certain price and for your big farm tractors it will simply not matter. 20USD per gallon? 50 USD per gallon? Would that be a problem? I doubt so...

So why do you think it needs to change quickly?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 15:22:59

tita - Just last summer I watched an old rancher sit in his air conditioned pick up while two of his hands ran about 120 head of cattle thru a shoot as fast as they could...about 15 minutes. Then brought the "magic wand" to him and we went back to house. While we loaded our plates with fried chicken he down loaded the wand in less then a minute onto his desk top.

The cattle did have their ear tags but no need to pin them in the chute and write each number down by hand and then later type into the computer. Each one had a FR button in its ear that held its entire life history.

Not exactly the high tech automation we're talking about but a very cheap way of making life on the ranch a little easier. The next big advance he's hoping for is an equally cheap tracking device to make it easier to find a particular beast hiding in the mesquite.

I suspect some farmers are thinking hard about modifying existing tech to their work. I know many farmers and ranchers who are routinely replacing broken down windmills with solar driven pumps. But the farmers need a lot of panels for their big pumps so they aren't into it as much. Again not automation but showing a willingness to adapt to new tech if it makes sense.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 15:32:15

I'm not to worried about nanobots in the kitchen. Possible, I suppose but why would you want to except on a moon colony or Mars?
Back here on Earth you might want to read some of this:
https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ ... /a1-20.pdf
It gives the reader some idea of the real costs that inventors will have to undercut to achieve a success with more automated or green powered agriculture.
If you get down to page 12 of 13 there is a table that gives fuel cost per acre for various tasks. Working back through yields per acre and other unit costs you can see that fuel used per bushel of production is still a quite small fraction of the total.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 21:36:36

vtsnowedin wrote:Working back through yields per acre and other unit costs you can see that fuel used per bushel of production is still a quite small fraction of the total.


This is something that often gets lost on peakers who keep imagining how the world will function with expensive or no oil at all.
There's a very very long road between the current glut to the point where mechanized agriculture can no longer function (with or without electrification/automation). It's likely far enough away that we'll see widespread crop failures due to AGW first.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 06:07:12

Image

This was made with second hand panels and batteries
Ready to turn Zombies into WWOOFers
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby GHung » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 12:42:40

Oil giant Shell bets on electric cars

One of the world's largest fossil fuel companies is betting on electric cars.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) revealed a deal on Thursday to acquire NewMotion, one of Europe's largest electric vehicle charging providers. NewMotion specializes in converting parking spots into electric charging stations. The Dutch firm has more than 30,000 electric charge points in Europe.

The acquisition, Shell's first in this space, shows how Big Oil is being forced to confront the long-term threat posed by electric cars and efforts to phase out gasoline and diesel vehicles.

"This is a way of broadening our offer as we move through the energy transition," Matthew Tipper, Shell's vice president of new fuels, told CNNMoney in an interview. "It's certainly a form of diversification."

That may be an understatement. Consider that NewMotion says its founding mission was to "contribute to a cleaner world by eradicating fossil fuels." Now, it will be owned by one of the world's largest fossil fuel companies, albeit one that is investing more on renewable energy. .....

http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/12/investi ... -stack-dom


Shell bought Siemens Solar about 15 years ago, chopped it up and sold off the pieces, so I'll do the wait-and-see thing.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 13:25:05

GHung wrote:
Oil giant Shell bets on electric cars

Shell bought Siemens Solar about 15 years ago, chopped it up and sold off the pieces, so I'll do the wait-and-see thing.

That wait and see attitude sounds sensible.

Though, such a purchase makes plenty of business sense to me (as a hedge, since no one can see the future accurately).

That way Shell is diversifying its business if EV's do disrupt oil greatly in coming decades. And by buying another firm, they're not disrupting their ongoing oil operations to do it (assuming the firm they're buying doesn't need a lot of net capital inflows to run, and they're willing to let its business run without too much meddling).

If EV's proliferate and the business is competent, Shell wins. If EV's don't proliferate in the moderate term, Shell can sell the business (probably for a loss -- but the overall cost of the hedge might not be all that steep). BUT -- they (and the rest of the oil industry) will be happy if they can continue to sell lots of oil in coming decades if EV's aren't quickly catching on.

And the cost curves indicate that EV's will proliferate -- the key question is the speed of adoption.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 23:37:52

From https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles ... llion-2020

"Shell Plans to Boost Clean Energy Spending to $1 Billion per Year. The oil giant's New Energies division launched last year with an annual investment budget of just $200 million. The oil giant's New Energies division launched last year with an annual investment budget of just $200 million."

Shell's petroleum budget for 2015 + 2016 = $62 billion. But I suppose they need to start somewhere even if it's just an insignificant amount of its total budget.

So $1 billion for "clean energy". And not long ago Shell paid $1 billion for a single Eagle Ford Shale lease in south Texas.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 23:54:49

ROCKMAN wrote:From https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles ... llion-2020

"Shell Plans to Boost Clean Energy Spending to $1 Billion per Year. The oil giant's New Energies division launched last year with an annual investment budget of just $200 million. The oil giant's New Energies division launched last year with an annual investment budget of just $200 million."

Shell's petroleum budget for 2015 + 2016 = $62 billion. But I suppose they need to start somewhere even if it's just an insignificant amount of its total budget.

So $1 billion for "clean energy". And not long ago Shell paid $1 billion for a single Eagle Ford Shale lease in south Texas.
Yes you have to start somewhere. But when you think about it the thinking and experimentation needed at the beginning should not cost all that much. It is only after prototype methods and equipment have been shown to work in the lab or on a proving ground that you need to invest the large chunks of capital to build out a new technology.
There will come a day when spending a dollar looking for new oil fields dose not find a dollars worth of new oil and a dollar spent reworking old fields will not wring out a dollar of extra oil and the industry will decline to just pumping out the remaining stripper wells. Hopefully by then these research dollars being spent today will have found some answers that we can scale up.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Zarquon » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 13:44:54

Wait and see sounds about right. Remember when BP was officially known as "Beyond Petroleum"? Some 15-20 years ago, when Lord Browne went into solar power. Then management changed and that was then end of it.
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